Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Why new business development projects fail : coping with the differences of technological versus market knowledge

Managing through projects has become important for generating new knowledge to cope with technological and market discontinuities. This paper examines how the fit between the creation of technological and market knowledge and important project management characteristics, i.e. project autonomy and completion criteria, influences the success of new business development (NBD) projects. In-depth longitudinal case research on NBD projects commercialised from 1993 to 2003 in the consumer electronics industry highlights that project management characteristics focusing only on the creation of technological knowledge contributed to the failure of those NBD projects that required new market knowledge as well. The findings indicate that senior management support and engaging in an alliance with partners possessing complementary market knowledge can offset this misalignment of the organisation of NBD projects.

"Has Gothic cake and eats it too : dreaming of Amelia" by Jaclyn Moriarty

Dreaming of Amelia (2009) recounts a small group of HSC students’ final year of high school. Told from multiple perspectives, the novel focuses on shifting senses of self, maturity, and agency as the protagonists move from adolescence to adulthood. The central conflict of the novel results from two ‘bad kids from the bad crowd at bad Brookfield High’ (blurb) transferring to wealthy private school, Ashbury; Amelia and Riley are scholarship students who do not fit with Ashbury’s profile of 'normal student' as it is understood by the school’s students or staff, and their presence in the school community forces many people to reassess their understanding of individual value (or, at least, that’s what the novel claims happens). In the shifting of perceptions, allegiances, and relationships, each of the main characters achieves a stronger sense of their identity, and Dreaming of Amelia is thus firmly located within the tradition of Young Adult (YA) literature, with all its stereotypes of adolescence.

Practitioner influence on contact lens prescribing in the UK

Contact lenses are mainly fitted by registered optometrists and contact lens opticians in the UK. Data we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys over the past 12 years indicate that, on average, registered optometrists and contact lens opticians undertake 3.2 and 7.1 contact lens fits per week (p < 0.0001). More experienced practitioners tend to fit older patients. Practitioners fitting more lenses per year tend to fit a higher proportion of soft lenses. Contact lens opticians tend to fit a higher proportion of patients with planned replacement and daily disposable lenses compared with optometrists.

Labelled silhouettes for human pose estimation

This paper proposes a new method of using foreground silhouette images for human pose estimation. Labels are introduced to the silhouette images, providing an extra layer of information that can be used in the model fitting process. The pixels in the silhouettes are labelled according to the corresponding body part in the model of the current fit, with the labels propagated into the silhouette of the next frame to be used in the fitting for the next frame. Both single and multi-view implementations are detailed, with results showing performance improvements over only using standard unlabelled silhouettes.

Fashion manufacturing in New Zealand : can design contribute to a sustainable fashion Industry?

In the late 1990s New Zealand fashion gained some international recognition for its dark edginess and intellectual connection due to its colonial past (Molloy, 2004). In the years since, this momentum seems to have dissipated as local fashion companies have followed a global trend towards inexpensive off shore manufacturing. The transfer of the making of garments to overseas workers appears to have resulted in a local fashion scene where many garments look the same in style, colour, cut and fit. The excitement of the past, where the majority of fashion designers established their own individuality through the cut and shape of the garments that they produced, may have been inadvertently lost. Consequently a sustainable New Zealand fashion and manufacturing industry, with design integrity, seems further out of reach. The first question posed by this research project is, ‘can the design and manufacture of a fashion garment, bearing in mind certain economic and practical restrictions at its inception, result in the development of a distinctive ‘look’ or ‘handwriting’?’ Second, through development of a collection of prototypes, can potential garments be created to be sustainably manufactured in New Zealand?

The promoting adult resilience (PAR) program : the effectiveness of the second, shorter pilot of a workplace prevention program

This article details the second, successful pilot of the Promoting Adult Resilience (PAR) program in the human-services departments of a local government organization. The PAR program is a strengths-based resilience building program that integrates Interpersonal and CBT perspectives and this pilot use a shorter, 7-week version of the program. Pre, post and follow-up measures on PAR participants from a resource-sector company were compared with a non-intervention matched comparison group. Post-test, PAR participants reported greater self-efficacy, more family satisfaction, greater f\work-life fit and balance and less negative family to work spillover than the comparison group. At the 6-month follow-up, these gains were maintained to a lesser degree, although work-life balance was strengthened, and negative spillover in both directions reduced. Participants also reported greater optimism for the future, greater work satisfaction and promisingly for human service workers, exhaustion was reduced and more vigour, important for human services as burnout, exhaustion is part of this is a serious work hazard

Yield-factor volatility models

The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.

Modeling corneal surfaces with three-dimensional basis functions

Purpose: To ascertain the effectiveness of object-centered three-dimensional representations for the modeling of corneal surfaces. Methods: Three-dimensional (3D) surface decomposition into series of basis functions including: (i) spherical harmonics, (ii) hemispherical harmonics, and (iii) 3D Zernike polynomials were considered and compared to the traditional viewer-centered representation of two-dimensional (2D) Zernike polynomial expansion for a range of retrospective videokeratoscopic height data from three clinical groups. The data were collected using the Medmont E300 videokeratoscope. The groups included 10 normal corneas with corneal astigmatism less than −0.75 D, 10 astigmatic corneas with corneal astigmatism between −1.07 D and 3.34 D (Mean = −1.83 D, SD = ±0.75 D), and 10 keratoconic corneas. Only data from the right eyes of the subjects were considered. Results: All object-centered decompositions led to significantly better fits to corneal surfaces (in terms of the RMS error values) than the corresponding 2D Zernike polynomial expansions with the same number of coefficients, for all considered corneal surfaces, corneal diameters (2, 4, 6, and 8 mm), and model orders (4th to 10th radial orders) The best results (smallest RMS fit error) were obtained with spherical harmonics decomposition which lead to about 22% reduction in the RMS fit error, as compared to the traditional 2D Zernike polynomials. Hemispherical harmonics and the 3D Zernike polynomials reduced the RMS fit error by about 15% and 12%, respectively. Larger reduction in RMS fit error was achieved for smaller corneral diameters and lower order fits. Conclusions: Object-centered 3D decompositions provide viable alternatives to traditional viewer-centered 2D Zernike polynomial expansion of a corneal surface. They achieve better fits to videokeratoscopic height data and could be particularly suited to the analysis of multiple corneal measurements, where there can be slight variations in the position of the cornea from one map acquisition to the next.

Detection and Estimation of Nonstationary Power Transients

This chapter looks at issues of non-stationarity in determining when a transient has occurred and when it is possible to fit a linear model to a non-linear response. The first issue is associated with the detection of loss of damping of power system modes. When some control device such as an SVC fails, the operator needs to know whether the damping of key power system oscillation modes has deteriorated significantly. This question is posed here as an alarm detection problem rather than an identification problem to get a fast detection of a change. The second issue concerns when a significant disturbance has occurred and the operator is seeking to characterize the system oscillation. The disturbance initially is large giving a nonlinear response; this then decays and can then be smaller than the noise level ofnormal customer load changes. The difficulty is one of determining when a linear response can be reliably identified between the non-linear phase and the large noise phase of thesignal. The solution proposed in this chapter uses “Time-Frequency” analysis tools to assistthe extraction of the linear model.

The causal effect of income on health: Evidence from German reunification

We investigate whether therewas a causal effect of income changes on the health satisfaction of East and West Germans in the years following reunification. Our data source is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) between 1984 and 2002, and we fit a recently proposed fixed-effects ordinal estimator to our health measures and use a causal decomposition technique to account for panel attrition.We find evidence of a significant positive effect of income changes on health satisfaction, but the quantitative size of this effect is small. This is the case with respect to current income and a measure of ‘permanent’ income.

Robust speech recognition using speech enhancement

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) has matured into a technology which is becoming more common in our everyday lives, and is emerging as a necessity to minimise driver distraction when operating in-car systems such as navigation and infotainment. In “noise-free” environments, word recognition performance of these systems has been shown to approach 100%, however this performance degrades rapidly as the level of background noise is increased. Speech enhancement is a popular method for making ASR systems more ro- bust. Single-channel spectral subtraction was originally designed to improve hu- man speech intelligibility and many attempts have been made to optimise this algorithm in terms of signal-based metrics such as maximised Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) or minimised speech distortion. Such metrics are used to assess en- hancement performance for intelligibility not speech recognition, therefore mak- ing them sub-optimal ASR applications. This research investigates two methods for closely coupling subtractive-type enhancement algorithms with ASR: (a) a computationally-efficient Mel-filterbank noise subtraction technique based on likelihood-maximisation (LIMA), and (b) in- troducing phase spectrum information to enable spectral subtraction in the com- plex frequency domain. Likelihood-maximisation uses gradient-descent to optimise parameters of the enhancement algorithm to best fit the acoustic speech model given a word se- quence known a priori. Whilst this technique is shown to improve the ASR word accuracy performance, it is also identified to be particularly sensitive to non-noise mismatches between the training and testing data. Phase information has long been ignored in spectral subtraction as it is deemed to have little effect on human intelligibility. In this work it is shown that phase information is important in obtaining highly accurate estimates of clean speech magnitudes which are typically used in ASR feature extraction. Phase Estimation via Delay Projection is proposed based on the stationarity of sinusoidal signals, and demonstrates the potential to produce improvements in ASR word accuracy in a wide range of SNR. Throughout the dissertation, consideration is given to practical implemen- tation in vehicular environments which resulted in two novel contributions – a LIMA framework which takes advantage of the grounding procedure common to speech dialogue systems, and a resource-saving formulation of frequency-domain spectral subtraction for realisation in field-programmable gate array hardware. The techniques proposed in this dissertation were evaluated using the Aus- tralian English In-Car Speech Corpus which was collected as part of this work. This database is the first of its kind within Australia and captures real in-car speech of 50 native Australian speakers in seven driving conditions common to Australian environments.

Development and use of clinical guidelines

The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the development and use of clinical guidelines as a tool for decision making in clinical practice. Nurses have always developed and used tools to guide clinical decision making related to interventions in practice. Since Florence Nightingale (Nightingale 1860) gave us ‘notes’ on nursing in the late 1800s, nurses have continued to use tools, such as standards, policies and procedures, protocols, algorithms, clinical pathways and clinical guidelines, to assist them in making appropriate decisions about patient care that eventuate in the best desired patient outcomes. Clinical guidelines have enjoyed growing popularity as a comprehensive tool for synthesising clinical evidence and information into user-friendly recommendations for practice. Historically, clinical guidelines were developed by individual experts or groups of experts by consensus, with no transparent process for the user to determine the validity and reliability of the recommendations. The acceptance of the evidence-based practice (EBP) movement as a paradigm for clinical decision making underscores the imperative for clinical guidelines to be systematically developed and based on the best available research evidence. Clinicians are faced with the dilemma of choosing from an abundance of guidelines of variable quality, or developing new guidelines. Where do you start? How do you find an existing guideline to fit your practice? How do you know if a guideline is evidence-based, valid and reliable? Should you apply an existing guideline in your practice or develop a new guideline? How do you get clinicians to use the guidelines? How do you know if using the guideline will make any difference in care delivery or patient outcomes? Whatever the choice, the challenge lies in choosing or developing a clinical guideline that is credible as a decision-making tool for the delivery of quality, efficient and effective care. This chapter will address the posed questions through an exploration of the ins and outs of clinical guidelines, from development to application to evaluation.

The growth-profitability relationship : strategic orientations as moderator

Principal Topic: In this study we investigate how strategic orientation moderates the impact of growth on profitability for a sample of Danish high growth (Gazelle) firms. ---------- Firm growth has been an essential part of both management research and entrepreneurship research for decades (e.g. Penrose 1959, Birch 1987, Storey 1994). From a societal point of view, firm growth has been perceived as economic generator and job creator. In entrepreneurship research, growth has been an important part of the field (Davidsson, Delmar and Wiklund 2006), and many have used growth as a measure of success. In strategic management, growth has been seen as an approach to achieve competitive advantages and a way of becoming increasing profitable (e.g. Russo and Fouts 1997, Cho and Pucic 2005). However, although firm growth used to be perceived as a natural pathway to profitability recently more skepticism has emerged due to both new theoretical development and new empirical insights. Empirically, studies show inconsistent and inconclusive empirical evidence regarding the impact of growth on profitability. Our review reveals that some studies find a substantial positive relationship, some find a weak positive relationship, some find no relationship and further some find a negative relationship. Overall, two dominant yet divergent theoretical positions can be identified. The first position, mainly focusing on the environmental fit, argues that firms are likely to become more profitable if they enter a market quickly and on a larger scale due to first mover advantages and economic of scale. The second position, mainly focusing the internal fit, argues that growth may lead to a range of internal challenges and difficulties, including rapid change in structure, reward systems, decision making, communication and management style. The inconsistent empirical results together with two divergent theoretical positions call for further investigations into the circumstances by which growth generate profitability and into the circumstances by which growth do not generate profitability. In this project, we investigate how strategic orientations influence the impact of growth on profitability by asking the following research question: How is the impact of growth on profitability moderated by strategic orientation? Based on a literature review of how growth impacts profitability in areas such as entrepreneurship, strategic management and strategic entrepreneurship we develop three hypotheses regarding the growth-profitability relationship and strategic orientation as a potential moderator. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: The three hypotheses are tested on data collected in 2008. All firms in Denmark, including all listed and non-listed (VAT-registered) firms who experienced a 100 % growth and had a positive sales or gross profit over a four years period (2004-2007) were surveyed. In total 2,475 fulfilled the requirements. Among those 1,107 firms returned usable questionnaires satisfactory giving us a response rate on 45 %. The financial data together with data on number of employees were obtained from D&B (previously Dun & Bradstreet). The remaining data were obtained through the survey. Hierarchical regression models with ROA (return on assets) as the dependent variable were used to test the hypotheses. In the first model control variables including region, industry, firm age, CEO age, CEO gender, CEO education and number of employees were entered. In the second model, growth measured as growth in employees was entered. Then strategic orientation (differentiation, cost leadership, focus differentiation and focus cost leadership) and then interaction effects of strategic orientation and growth were entered in the model. ---------- Results and Implications: The results show a positive impact of firm growth on profitability and further that this impact is moderated by strategic orientation. Specifically, it was found that growth has a larger impact on profitability when firms do not pursue a focus strategy including both focus differentiation and focus cost leadership. Our preliminary interpretation of the results suggests that the value of growth depends on the circumstances and more specifically 'how much is left to fight for'. It seems like those firms who target towards a narrow segment are less likely to gain value of growth. The remaining market shares to fight for to these firms are not large enough to compensate for the cost of growing. Based on our findings, it therefore seems like growth has a more positive relationship with profitability for those who approach a broad market segment. Furthermore we argue that firms pursuing af Focus strategy will have more specialized assets that decreases the possibilities of further profitable expansion. For firms, CEOs, board of directors etc., the study shows that high growth is not necessarily something worth aiming for. It is a trade-off between the cost of growing and the value of growing. For many firms, there might be better ways of generating profitability in the long run. It depends on the strategic orientation of the firm. For advisors and consultants, the conditional value of growth implies that in-depth knowledge on their clients' situation is necessary before any advice can be given. And finally, for policy makers, it means they have to be careful when initiating new policies to promote firm growth. They need to take into consideration firm strategy and industry conditions.

Corporate governance in China : the role of the state and ideology in shaping reforms

Examines the political and ideological influences on China's economic reforms since the early 1980s. Discusses the influence of the Chinese Communist Party and Confucianism on economic progress and assesses the effect of reforms. Outlines the requirement for new corporate governance laws to meet the needs of expanding private businesses and considers China's use and adaptation of some Western models of corporate governance. Comments on whether these fit easily with China's business culture. Criticises the shortcomings of China's corporate laws. Looks in particular at the telecommunications industry and at the Company Law 2006.