Combining elicited expert knowledge into Bayesian priors

Information that is elicited from experts can be treated as `data', so can be analysed using a Bayesian statistical model, to formulate a prior model. Typically methods for encoding a single expert's knowledge have been parametric, constrained by the extent of an expert's knowledge and energy regarding a target parameter. Interestingly these methods have often been deterministic, in that all elicited information is treated at `face value', without error. Here we sought a parametric and statistical approach for encoding assessments from multiple experts. Our recent work proposed and demonstrated the use of a flexible hierarchical model for this purpose. In contrast to previous mathematical approaches like linear or geometric pooling, our new approach accounts for several sources of variation: elicitation error, encoding error and expert diversity. Of interest are the practical, mathematical and philosophical interpretations of this form of hierarchical pooling (which is both statistical and parametric), and how it fits within the subjective Bayesian paradigm. Case studies from a bioassay and project management (on PhDs) are used to illustrate the approach.

Effect of coffee combining green coffee bean constituents with typical roasting products on the Nrf2/ARE pathway in vitro and in vivo

This study investigated Nrf2-activating properties of a coffee blend combining raw coffee bean constituents with 5-O-caffeoylquinic acid (CGA) as a lead component with typical roasting products such as N-methylpyridinium (NMP). In cell culture (HT29) the respective coffee extract (CN-CE) increased nuclear Nrf2 translocation and enhanced the transcription of ARE-dependent genes as exemplified for NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase and glutathione-S-transferase (GST)A1, reflected in the protein level by an increase in GST enzyme activity. In a pilot human intervention study (29 healthy volunteers), daily consumption of 750 mL of CN-coffee for 4 weeks increased Nrf2 transcription in peripheral blood lymphocytes on average. However, the transcriptional response pattern of Nrf2/ARE-dependent genes showed substantial interindividual variations. The presence of SNPs in the Nrf2-promoter, reported recently, as well as the detection of GSTT1*0 (null) genotypes in the study collective strengthens the hypothesis that coffee acts as a modulator of Nrf2-dependent gene response in humans, but genetic polymorphisms play an important role in the individual response pattern.

Discriminative ability of functional loading tests for adolescent jumper's knee

Objective. To investigate the reliability and validity of five squat-based loading tests that are clinically appropriate for jumper's knee. The loading tests were step up, double leg squat, double leg squat on a 25-degree decline (decline squat), single leg decline squat, and decline hop. Design. Cross-sectional controlled cohort. Subjects without knee pain comprised controls, those with extensor tendon pain comprised the jumper's knee group. Setting. Institutional athlete study group in Australia Participants. Fifty-six elite adolescent basketball players participated in this study, thirteen comprised the jumper's knee group, fifteen athletes formed a control group. Intervention. Each subject performed each loading test for baseline and reliability data on the first testing day. Subjects then performed three days of intensive (6 h daily) basketball training, after which each loading test was reexamined. Main outcome measures. Eleven point interval scale for pain. Results. The tests that best detected a change in pain due to intensive workload were the single leg decline squat and single leg decline hop. This study found that decline tests have better discriminative ability than the standard squat to detect change in jumper's knee pain due to intensive training. The typical error for these tests ranged from 0.3 to 0.5, however, caution should be exercised in the interpretation of these reliability figures due to relatively low scores. Conclusions. The single leg decline squat is recommended in the physical assessment of adolescent jumper's knee. The decline squat was selected as the best clinical test over the decline hop because it was easier to standardise performance.

Composites for delivery of therapeutics : combining melt electrospun scaffolds with loaded electrosprayed microparticles

A novel strategy is reported to produce biodegradable microfiber-scaffolds layered with high densities of microparticles encapsulating a model protein. Direct electrospraying on highly porous melt electrospun scaffolds provides a reproducible scaffold coating throughout the entire architecture. The burst release of protein is significantly reduced due to the immobilization of microparticles on the surface of the scaffold and release mechanisms are dependent on protein-polymer interactions. The composite scaffolds have a positive biological effect in contact with precursor osteoblast cells up to 18 days in culture. The scaffold design achieved with the techniques presented here endorses these new composite scaffolds as promising templates for growth factor delivery.

Improving the ability of guarantors to make a real choice : lenders' practices in taking third party guarantees

This article considers recent cases on guarantees of business loans to identify the lending practices that led the court to set aside the guarantee as against the creditor on the basis that the creditor had engaged in unconscionable conduct. It also explores the role of industry codes of practice in preventing unconscionable conduct, including whether there is a correlation between commitment to an industry code and higher standards of lending practices; whether compliance with an industry code would have produced different outcomes in the cases considered; and whether lenders need to do more than comply with an industry code to ensure their practices are fair and reasonable.

Do drinking and riding mix? Effects of legal doses of alcohol on balance ability in experienced motorcyclists

The appropriateness of applying drink driving legislation to motorcycle riding has been questioned as there may be fundamental differences in the effects of alcohol on these two activities. For example, while the distribution of blood alcohol content (BAC) levels among fatally injured male drivers compared to riders is similar, a greater proportion of motorcycle fatalities involve levels in the lower (0 to .10% BAC) range. Several psychomotor and higher-order cognitive skills underpinning riding performance appear to be significantly influenced by low levels of alcohol. For example, at low levels (.02 to .046% BAC), riders show significant increases in reaction time to hazardous stimuli, inattention to the riding task, performance errors such as leaving the roadway and a reduced ability to complete a timed course. It has been suggested that alcohol may redirect riders’ focus from higher-order cognitive skills to more physical skills such as maintaining balance. As part of a research program to investigate the potential benefits of introducing a zero, or reduced, BAC for all riders in Queensland regardless of their licence status, the effects of low doses of alcohol on balance ability were investigated in a laboratory setting. The static balance of ten experienced riders was measured while they performed either no secondary task, a visual search task, or a cognitive (arithmetic) task following the administration of alcohol (0; 0.02, and 0.05% BAC). Subjective ratings of intoxication and balance impairment increased in a dose-dependent manner; however, objective measures of static balance were negatively affected only at the .05% BAC dose. Performance on a concurrent secondary visual search task, but not a purely cognitive (arithmetic) task, improved postural stability across all BAC levels. Finally, the .05% BAC dose was associated with impaired performance on the cognitive (arithmetic) task, but not the visual search task, when participants were balancing, but neither task was impaired by alcohol when participants were standing on the floor. Implications for road safety and future ‘drink riding’ policy considerations are discussed.

Aqueous phase synthesis of copper nanoparticles : a link between heavy metal resistance and nanoparticle synthesis ability in bacterial systems

We demonstrate aqueous phase biosynthesis of phase-pure metallic copper nanoparticles (CuNPs) using a silver resistant bacterium Morganella morganii. This is particularly important considering that there has been no report that demonstrates biosynthesis and stabilization of pure copper nanoparticles in the aqueous phase. Electrochemical analysis of bacterial cells exposed to Cu2+ ions provides new insights into the mechanistic aspect of Cu2+ ion reduction within the bacterial cell and indicates a strong link between the silver and copper resistance machinery of bacteria in the context of metal ion reduction. The outcomes of this study take us a step closer towards designing rational strategies for biosynthesis of different metal nanoparticles using microorganisms.

Moderating teen drinking : combining social marketing and education

Purpose This paper outlines a pilot study that was undertaken in Australia in 2011 that combined social marketing with education. An intervention targeting 14-16 year olds to influence attitudes and behavioural intentions towards moderate drinking was developed and tested. Game On:Know alcohol (GO:KA) is a six-module intervention that is delivered to a year level cohort in an auditorium. GO:KA combines a series of online and offline experiential activities to engage (with) students. Design/methodology Following social marketing benchmark criteria, formative research and competitive analysis were undertaken to create, implement and evaluate an intervention. The intervention was delivered in one all boys' and one all girls' school in April and June 2011, respectively. A total of 223 Year 10 students participated in GO:KA with the majority completing both pre- and post-surveys. Paired samples t-tests and descriptive analysis were used to assess attitudinal and behavioural intention change. Findings Attitudinal change was observed in both schools while behavioural intentions changed for girls and not boys according to paired samples t-testing. Post hoc testing indicated gender differences. Research limitations The lack of a control group is a key limitation of the current research that can be overcome in the 20 school main study to be conducted in 2013-2015. Originality/value The current study provides evidence to suggest that a combined social marketing and education intervention can change teenage attitudes towards moderate drinking whilst only changing behavioural intentions for female teenagers. Analysis of the intervention provides insight into gender differences and highlights the need for a segmented approach.

How realistic are older drivers’ ratings of their driving ability?

One strategy that can be used by older drivers to guard against age-related declines in driving capability is to regulate their driving. This strategy presumes that self-judgments of driving capability are realistic. We found no significant relationships between older drivers’ hazard perception skill ratings and performance on an objective and validated video-based hazard perception test, even when self-ratings of performance on specific scenarios in the test were used. Self-enhancement biases were found across all components of driving skill, including hazard perception. If older drivers’ judgments of their driving capability are unrealistic, then this may compromise the effectiveness of any self-restriction strategies to reduce crash risk.

The potential of combining phenomenography, variation theory and threshold concepts to inform curriculum design in higher education

This chapter describes an innovative method of curriculum design that is based on combining phenomenographic research, and the associated variation theory of learning, with the notion of disciplinary threshold concepts to focus specialised design attention on the most significant and difficult parts of the curriculum. The method involves three primary stages: (i) identification of disciplinary concepts worthy of intensive curriculum design attention, using the criteria for threshold concepts; (ii) action research into variation in students’ understandings/misunderstandings of those concepts, using phenomenography as the research approach; (iii) design of learning activities to address the poorer understandings identified in the second stage, using variation theory as a guiding framework. The curriculum design method is inherently theory and evidence based. It was developed and trialed during a two-year project funded by the Australian Learning and Teaching Council, using physics and law disciplines as case studies. Disciplinary teachers’ perceptions of the impact of the method on their teaching and understanding of student learning were profound. Attempts to measure the impact on student learning were less conclusive; teachers often unintentionally deviated from the design when putting it into practice for the first time. Suggestions for improved implementation of the method are discussed.

Inferring diffusion in single live cells at the single-molecule level

The movement of molecules inside living cells is a fundamental feature of biological processes. The ability to both observe and analyse the details of molecular diffusion in vivo at the single-molecule and single-cell level can add significant insight into understanding molecular architectures of diffus- ing molecules and the nanoscale environment in which the molecules diffuse. The tool of choice for monitoring dynamic molecular localization in live cells is fluorescence microscopy, especially so combining total internal reflection fluorescence with the use of fluorescent protein (FP) reporters in offering exceptional imaging contrast for dynamic processes in the cell mem- brane under relatively physiological conditions compared with competing single-molecule techniques. There exist several different complex modes of diffusion, and discriminating these from each other is challenging at the mol- ecular level owing to underlying stochastic behaviour. Analysis is traditionally performed using mean square displacements of tracked particles; however, this generally requires more data points than is typical for single FP tracks owing to photophysical instability. Presented here is a novel approach allowing robust Bayesian ranking of diffusion processes to dis-criminate multiple complex modes probabilistically. It is a computational approach that biologists can use to understand single-molecule features in live cells.

Informational constraints on performance of dynamic interceptive actions

Utilising quantitative and qualitative research methods the thesis explored how movement patterns were coordinated under different conditions in elite athletes. Results revealed each elite athlete's ability to use multiple, varied information sources to guide successful task performance, highlighting the specific role of surrounding objects in the performance environment to perceptually guide behaviour. Combining elite coaching knowledge with empirical research enhanced understanding of the role of vision in regulating interceptive behaviours, enhancing the representative design of training environments. The main findings have been applied to training design of the Athletics Australia National Jumps Centre at the Queensland Academy of Sport in preparation for the World Indoor Championships, World Championships, and Olympic Games for Australian long and triple jumpers.

Resilient Navigation through Probabilistic Modality Reconfiguration

This paper proposes an approach to achieve resilient navigation for indoor mobile robots. Resilient navigation seeks to mitigate the impact of control, localisation, or map errors on the safety of the platform while enforcing the robot’s ability to achieve its goal. We show that resilience to unpredictable errors can be achieved by combining the benefits of independent and complementary algorithmic approaches to navigation, or modalities, each tuned to a particular type of environment or situation. In this paper, the modalities comprise a path planning method and a reactive motion strategy. While the robot navigates, a Hidden Markov Model continually estimates the most appropriate modality based on two types of information: context (information known a priori) and monitoring (evaluating unpredictable aspects of the current situation). The robot then uses the recommended modality, switching between one and another dynamically. Experimental validation with a SegwayRMP- based platform in an office environment shows that our approach enables failure mitigation while maintaining the safety of the platform. The robot is shown to reach its goal in the presence of: 1) unpredicted control errors, 2) unexpected map errors and 3) a large injected localisation fault.

Combining multiple sensor modalities for a localisation robust to smoke

This paper proposes an approach to obtain a localisation that is robust to smoke by exploiting multiple sensing modalities: visual and infrared (IR) cameras. This localisation is based on a state-of-the-art visual SLAM algorithm. First, we show that a reasonably accurate localisation can be obtained in the presence of smoke by using only an IR camera, a sensor that is hardly affected by smoke, contrary to a visual camera (operating in the visible spectrum). Second, we demonstrate that improved results can be obtained by combining the information from the two sensor modalities (visual and IR cameras). Third, we show that by detecting the impact of smoke on the visual images using a data quality metric, we can anticipate and mitigate the degradation in performance of the localisation by discarding the most affected data. The experimental validation presents multiple trajectories estimated by the various methods considered, all thoroughly compared to an accurate dGPS/INS reference.

Knowledge unlatched : encouraging innovation in academic publishing through collective action and Open Access licensing

This case study examines the way in which Knowledge Unlatched is combining collective action and open access licenses to encourage innovation in markets for specialist academic books. Knowledge Unlatched is a not for profit organisation that has been established to help a global community of libraries coordinate their book purchasing activities more effectively and, in so doing, to ensure that books librarians select for their own collections become available for free for anyone in the world to read. The Knowledge Unlatched model is an attempt to re-coordinate a market in order to facilitate a transition to digitally appropriate publishing models that include open access. It offers librarians an opportunity to facilitate the open access publication of books that their own readers would value access to. It provides publishers with a stable income stream on titles selected by libraries, as well as an ability to continue selling books to a wider market on their own terms. Knowledge Unlatched provides a rich case study for researchers and practitioners interested in understanding how innovations in procurement practices can be used to stimulate more effective, equitable markets for socially valuable products.