Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Construction safety for ethnic minorities in Hong Kong

The construction industry of Hong Kong is experiencing an ageing problem and a labour shortage. To alleviate the shortage of construction workforce, the government has initiatives to assist ethnic minorities to join the construction industry. It is foreseeable that more people from the ethnic minorities will join the construction industry. The safety of workers from the ethnic minorities in construction has attracted growing research interest in many developed countries. Statistics show that workers from the ethnic minorities were nearly 30 percent more likely to have work-related injuries than local workers. However, in Hong Kong, official statistics on the safety of workers from the ethnic minorities are not available. This reflects the racial or ethnic insensitivity of the construction industry in Hong Kong. As the safety of ethnic minorities has not received the attention, this research seeking to contribute to efforts to improve the safety of workers from the ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong is all the more urgent. This paper provides an initial report of a research project which focuses on improving the safety of ethnic minority construction workers. Qualitative and quantitative research methods applied in conducting the research are first discussed. Preliminary statistics of construction accidents involving ethnic minority construction workers will then be reported.

Generation and characterization of ionic and neutral dihydroxy boron B(OH)(2)(+/0) in the gas phase

The dicoordinated borinium ion, dihydroxyborinium, B(OH)(2)(+) is generated from methyl boronic acid CH3B(OH)(2) by dissociative electron ionization and its connectivity confirmed by collisional activation. Neutralization-reionization (NR) experiments on this ion indicate that the neutral B(OH)(2) radical is a viable species in the gas phase. Both vertical neutralization of B(OH)(2)(+) and reionization of B(OH)(2) in the NR experiment are, however, associated with particularly unfavorable Franck-Condon factors. The differences in adiabatic and vertical electron transfer behavior can be traced back to a particular pi stabilization of the cationic species compared to the sp(2)-type neutral radical. Thermochemical data on several neutral and cationic boron compounds are presented based on calculations performed at the G2 level of theory.

Analysis of the NF-κB p50 dimer interface by diversity screening

An in vivo screen has been devised for NF-κB p50 activity in Escherichia coli exploiting the ability of the mammalian transcription factor to emulate a prokaryotic repressor. Active intracellular p50 was shown to repress the expression of a green fluorescent protein reporter gene allowing for visual screening of colonies expressing active p50 on agar plates. A library of mutants was constructed in which the residues Y267, L269, A308 and V310 of the dimer interface were simultaneously randomised and twenty-five novel functional interfaces were selected which repressed the reporter gene to similar levels as the wild-type protein. The leucine-269 alanine-308 core was repeatedly, but not exclusively, selected from the library whilst a diversity of predominantly non-polar residues were selected at positions 267 and 310. These results indicate that L269 and A308 may form a hot spot of interaction and allow an insight into the processes of dimer selectivity and evolution within this family of transcription factors.

Clinical dyslipidaemia is associated with changes in the lipid composition and inflammatory properties of apolipoprotein-B-containing lipoproteins from women with type 2 diabetes

The aim of this study was to use lipidomics to determine if the lipid composition of apolipoprotein-B-containing lipoproteins is modified by dyslipidaemia in type 2 diabetes and if any of the identified changes potentially have biological relevance in the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes. VLDL and LDL from normolipidaemic and dyslipidaemic type 2 diabetic women and controls were isolated and quantified with HPLC and mass spectrometry. A detailed molecular characterisation of VLDL triacylglycerols (TAG) was also performed using the novel ozone-induced dissociation method, which allowed us to distinguish vaccenic acid (C18:1 n-7) from oleic acid (C18:1 n-9) in specific TAG species. Lipid class composition was very similar in VLDL and LDL from normolipidaemic type 2 diabetic and control participants. By contrast, dyslipidaemia was associated with significant changes in both lipid classes (e.g. increased diacylglycerols) and lipid species (e.g. increased C16:1 and C20:3 in phosphatidylcholine and cholesteryl ester and increased C16:0 [palmitic acid] and vaccenic acid in TAG). Levels of palmitic acid in VLDL and LDL TAG correlated with insulin resistance, and VLDL TAG enriched in palmitic acid promoted increased secretion of proinflammatory mediators from human smooth muscle cells. We showed that dyslipidaemia is associated with major changes in both lipid class and lipid species composition in VLDL and LDL from women with type 2 diabetes. In addition, we identified specific molecular lipid species that both correlate with clinical variables and are proinflammatory. Our study thus shows the potential of advanced lipidomic methods to further understand the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes.

Securing medical devices Part B : what’s available for nasogastric tubes?

This article is the second part of a two-part series examining securement options for commonly used therapeutic devices in the adult intensive care unit. Part A focused on endotracheal device securement.1 This article addresses nasogastric tube (NGT) securement options and with the aim of identifying the available range of NGT securement devices in Australia as a resource for clinicians seeking to explore options for tube stabilisation. Nasogastric feeding or gastric decompression tubes are commonly inserted via the nostril/nares. The National Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel (NPUAP) 2011 position statement on mucosal pressure injuries, highlighted that mucosal tissues are vulnerable to pressure from devices.2 Securing of these devices sometimes leads to pressure-related injury to the internal mucosa due to difficulty visualising the mucosa and failure to reposition the nasogastric tube to relieve the pressure in a particular area.3 The nasal orifice is much smaller than the oral cavity and regular tube position changes are vital to minimise the risk of mucosal damage and ulcer development.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

B-Raf mutation : a key player in molecular biology of cancer

B-Raf is one of the more commonly mutated proto-oncogenes implicated in the development of cancers. In this review, we consider the mechanisms and clinical impacts of B-Raf mutations in cancer and discuss the implications for the patient in melanoma, thyroid cancer and colorectal cancer, where B-Raf mutations are particularly common.

Strategic targeting of the PI3K–NFκB axis in cisplatin-resistant NSCLC

Chemoresistance is a major therapeutic challenge to overcome in NSCLC, in order to improve the current survival rates of <15% at 5 years. We and others have shown increased PI3K signaling in NSCLC to be associated with a more aggressive disease, and a poorer prognosis. In this study, targeted inhibition of three strategic points of the PI3K–NFκB axis was performed with the aim of exploiting vulnerabilities in cisplatin-resistant NSCLC cells. Cisplatin-resistant cell lines were previously generated through prolonged exposure to the drug. Expression of PI3K and NFκB pathway-related genes were compared between cisplatin-resistant cells and their matched parent cells using a gene expression array, qRT-PCR, DNA sequencing, western blot, and immunofluorescence. Targeted inhibition was performed using GDC-0980, a dual PI3K–mTOR inhibitor currently in Phase II clinical trials in NSCLC, and DHMEQ, an inhibitor of NFκB translocation which has been used extensively both in vitro and in vivo. Effects of the two inhibitors were assessed by BrdU proliferation assay and multiparameter viability assay. NFKBIA was shown to be 12-fold overexpressed in cisplatin-resistant cells, with no mutations present in exons 3, 4, or 5 of the gene. Corresponding overexpression of IκBα was also observed. Treatment with DHMEQ (but not GDC-0980) led to significantly enhanced effects on viability and proliferation in cisplatin-resistant cells compared with parent cells. We conclude that NFκB inhibition represents a more promising strategy than PI3K–mTOR inhibition for treatment in the chemoresistance setting in NSCLC.

A high mobility P-type DPP-thieno[3,2-b]thiophene copolymer for organic thin-film transistors

A copolymer comprising 1,4-diketopyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole (DPP) and thieno[3,2-b]thiophene moieties, PDBT-co-TT, shows high hole mobility of up to 0.94 cm2 V-1 s-1 in organic thin-film transistors. The strong intermolecular interactions originated from π-π stacking and donor-acceptor interaction lead to the formation of interconnected polymer networks having an ordered lamellar structure, which have established highly efficient pathways for charge carrier transport.