Fertility choice, land, and the Malthusian hypothesis

In a standard overlapping generations growth model, with a fixed amount of land and endogenous fertility, the competitive economy converges to a steady state with a zero population growth rate and positive consumption per capita. The Malthusian hypothesis is interpreted as a positive statement about the relationship between population growth and consumption per-capita, when production exhibits diminishing returns to labor and there is a fixed amount of land essential for production. Even when individuals care only about the number of their children and not about their children's welfare, the equilibrium is such that they eventually would choose to have only one child for each adult. Hence, if Malthus's "positive check' on population is the result of the response of optimizing agents to competitively determined prices, Malthus's pessimistic conjecture is not necessarily true, even though his other assumptions hold. -from Authors

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

The molecular structure of the phosphate mineral kidwellite NaFe93+(PO4)6(OH)11⋅3H2O – a vibrational spectroscopic study

The mineral kidwellite, a hydrated hydroxy phosphate of ferric iron and sodium of approximate formula NaFe93+(PO4)6(OH)11⋅3H2O, has been studied using a combination of electron microscopy with EDX and vibrational spectroscopic techniques. Raman spectroscopy identifies an intense band at 978 cm−1 and 1014 cm−1. These bands are attributed to the PO43− ν1 symmetric stretching mode. The ν3 antisymmetric stretching modes are observed by a large number of Raman bands. The series of Raman bands at 1034, 1050, 1063, 1082, 1129, 1144 and 1188 cm−1 are attributed to the ν3 antisymmetric stretching bands of the PO43− and HOPO32− units. The observation of these multiple Raman bands in the symmetric and antisymmetric stretching region gives credence to the concept that both phosphate and hydrogen phosphate units exist in the structure of kidwellite. The series of Raman bands at 557, 570, 588, 602, 631, 644 and 653 cm−1are assigned to the PO43− ν2 bending modes. The series of Raman bands at 405, 444, 453, 467, 490 and 500 cm−1 are attributed to the PO43− and HOPO32− ν4 bending modes. The spectrum is quite broad but Raman bands may be resolved at 3122, 3231, 3356, 3466 and 3580 cm−1. These bands are assigned to water stretching vibrational modes. The number and position of these bands suggests that water is in different molecular environments with differing hydrogen bond distances. Infrared bands at 3511 and 3359 cm−1 are ascribed to the OH stretching vibration of the OH units. Very broad bands at 3022 and 3299 cm−1 are attributed to the OH stretching vibrations of water. Vibrational spectroscopy offers insights into the molecular structure of the phosphate mineral kidwellite.

Management of a high grade pan stage schedule to reduce the steam consumption

MOST PAN stages in Australian factories use only five or six batch pans for the high grade massecuite production and operate these in a fairly rigid repeating production schedule. It is common that some of the pans are of large dropping capacity e.g. 150 to 240 t. Because of the relatively small number and large sizes of the pans, steam consumption varies widely through the schedule, often by ±30% about the mean value. Large fluctuations in steam consumption have implications for the steam generation/condensate management of the factory and the evaporators when bleed vapour is used. One of the objectives of a project to develop a supervisory control system for a pan stage is to (a) reduce the average steam consumption and (b) reduce the variation in the steam consumption. The operation of each of the high grade pans within the schedule at Macknade Mill was analysed to determine the idle (or buffer) time, time allocations for essential but unproductive operations (e.g. pan turn round, charging, slow ramping up of steam rates on pan start etc.), and productive time i.e. the time during boil-on of liquor and molasses feed. Empirical models were developed for each high grade pan on the stage to define the interdependence of the production rate and the evaporation rate for the different phases of each pan’s cycle. The data were analysed in a spreadsheet model to try to reduce and smooth the total steam consumption. This paper reports on the methodology developed in the model and the results of the investigations for the pan stage at Macknade Mill. It was found that the operation of the schedule severely restricted the ability to reduce the average steam consumption and smooth the steam flows. While longer cycle times provide increased flexibility the steam consumption profile was changed only slightly. The ability to cut massecuite on the run among pans, or the use of a high grade seed vessel, would assist in reducing the average steam consumption and the magnitude of the variations in steam flow.

Plasma-controlled nanocrystallinity and phase composition of TiO2 : a smart way to enhance biomimetic response

This contribution sheds light on the role of crystal size and phase composition in inducing biomimetic apatite growth on the surface of nanostructured titania films synthesized by reactive magnetron sputtering of Ti targets in Ar+O2 plasmas. Unlike most existing techniques, this method enables one to deposit highly crystalline titania films with a wide range of phase composition and nanocrystal size, without any substrate heating or postannealing. Moreover, by using this dry plasma-based method one can avoid surface hydroxylation at the deposition stage, almost inevitable in wet chemical processes. Results of this work show that high phase purity and optimum crystal size appear to be the essential requirement for efficient apatite formation on magnetron plasma-fabricated bioactive titania coatings. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nonlinear surface magnetoplasmons at the electron semiconductor-metal interface

The nonlinear self-interaction of the potential surface magnetoplasmons, propagating across the external magnetic field at the n-type semiconductor-metal interface is described in this manuscript. The studied nonlinearity is due to the free carriers dispersion law nonparabolicity and we show that it acts differently in semiconductor materials with normal and inverse band structures. The results of the nonlinear evolution of the surface magnetoplasmons are presented as well.

Effect of soil properties on the response of pile to underground explosion

This paper develops and presents a fully coupled non-linear finite element procedure to treat the response of piles to ground shocks induced by underground explosions. The Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations are used in the study. Pile responses in four different soil types, viz, saturated soil, partially saturated soil and loose and dense dry soils are investigated and the results compared. Numerical results are validated by comparing with those from a standard design manual. Blast wave propagation in soils, horizontal pile deformations and damages in the pile are presented. The pile damage presented through plastic strain diagrams will enable the vulnerability assessment of the piles under the blast scenarios considered. The numerical results indicate that the blast performance of the piles embedded in saturated soil and loose dry soil are more severe than those in piles embedded in partially saturated soil and dense dry soil. Present findings should serve as a benchmark reference for future analysis and design.

Tuning second order cyclostationarity parameters for the diagnostics of rolling element bearings

Failures on rolling element bearings usually originate from cracks that are detectable even in their early stage of propogation by properly analyzing vibration signals measured in the proximity of the bearing. Due to micro-slipping in the roller-races contact, damage-induced vibration signals belong to the family of quasi-periodic signals with a strong second order cyclostationary component. Cyclic coherence and its integrated form are widely considered as the most suitable tools for bearing fault diagnostics and their theoretical bases have been already consolidated. This paper presents how to correctly set the parameters of the cyclostationary analysis tool to be implemented in an automatable algorithm. In the first part of the paper some general guidelines are provided for the specific application. These considerations are further verified, applying cyclostationary tools to data collected in an experimental campaign on a specific test-rig.

Detection of sinkhole attack in wireless sensor networks

Generally wireless sensor networks rely of many-to-one communication approach for data gathering. This approach is extremely susceptible to sinkhole attack, where an intruder attracts surrounding nodes with unfaithful routing information, and subsequently presents selective forwarding or change the data that carry through it. A sinkhole attack causes an important threat to sensor networks and it should be considered that the sensor nodes are mostly spread out in open areas and of weak computation and battery power. In order to detect the intruder in a sinkhole attack this paper suggests an algorithm which firstly finds a group of suspected nodes by analyzing the consistency of data. Then, the intruder is recognized efficiently in the group by checking the network flow information. The proposed algorithm's performance has been evaluated by using numerical analysis and simulations. Therefore, accuracy and efficiency of algorithm would be verified.

Food talks back : Exploring the role of mobile applications in reducing domestic food wastage

Mitigating domestic food waste reduces its environmental and economic impacts. In our study, we have identified the use of mobile technology to support behaviour change as a key tool to assist the process of reducing food waste. This paper reports on three mobile applications designed to reduce domestic food waste: Fridge Pal, LeftoverSwap and EatChaFood. The paper examines how each app can influence consumer knowledge of domestic food supply, location, and literacy. We discuss our findings with respect to three considerations: (i) assisting with the user’s food supply and location knowledge; (ii) improving the user’s food literacy; (iii) facilitating social food sharing of excess food. We present new insights for mobile interventions that encourage changes towards more sustainable behaviours to reduce food waste.

Digital Modeling, Integrated Project Delivery and Industry Transformation: An Australian Case Study

This research is focused on realizing productivity benefits for the delivery of transport infrastructure in the Australian construction industry through the use of building information modeling (BIM), virtual design and construction (VDC) and integrated project delivery (IPD). Specific objectives include: (I) building an understanding of the institutional environment, business systems and support mechanisms (e.g., training and skilling) which impact on the uptake of BIM/VDC; (II) gathering data to undertake a cross-country analysis of these environments; and (III) providing strategic and practical outcomes to guide the uptake of such processes in Australia. Activities which will inform this research include a review of academic literature and industry documentation, semi-formal interviews in Australia and Sweden, and a cross-country comparative analysis to determine factors affecting uptake and associated productivity improvements. These activities will seek to highlight the gaps between current-practice and best-practice which are impacting on widespread adoption of BIM/VDC and IPD. Early findings will be discussed with intended outcomes of this research being used to: inform a national public procurement strategy; provide guidelines for new contractual frameworks; and contribute to closing skill gaps. Keywords: building information modeling (BIM); virtual design and construction (VDC); integrated project delivery (IPD); transport infrastructure; Australia; procurement

Book review "Moving Innovation: A History of Computer Animation by Tom Sito , The MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2013"

As a Lecturer of Animation History and 3D Computer Animator, I received a copy of Moving Innovation: A History of Computer Animation by Tom Sito with an element of anticipation in the hope that this text would clarify the complex evolution of Computer Graphics (CG). Tom Sito did not disappoint, as this text weaves together the multiple development streams and convergent technologies and techniques throughout history that would ultimately result in modern CG. Universities now have students who have never known a world without computer animation and many students are younger than the first 3D CG animated feature film, Toy Story (1996); this text is ideal for teaching computer animation history and, as I would argue, it also provides a model for engaging young students in the study of animation history in general. This is because Sito places the development of computer animation within the context of its pre-digital ancestry and throughout the text he continues to link the discussion to the broader history of animation, its pioneers, technologies and techniques...

Saliva as an emerging biofluid for clinical diagnosis and applications of MEMS/NEMS in salivary diagnostics

Saliva as a biological fluid is gaining wider acceptance for diagnosing diseases. The growing interest in saliva as a biological fluid is due to its noninvasiveness, ease of use, cost-effectiveness, and multiple sample collection possibilities as well as minimal risk to health care professionals of contracting infectious organisms such as HIV and Hep B. However, the clinical translation of saliva is hampered by our lack of understanding of the biomolecular transportation from blood into saliva, the diurnal variations of biomolecules present in saliva, and relatively low levels of analytes (100th to a 1000th fold less than in blood). We provide information on the current status of salivary research, salivary diagnostics empowered by nanotechnology, and future prospects in this emerging field of saliva diagnostics.

A new ambiguity acceptance test threshold determination method with controllable failure rate

The ambiguity acceptance test is an important quality control procedure in high precision GNSS data processing. Although the ambiguity acceptance test methods have been extensively investigated, its threshold determine method is still not well understood. Currently, the threshold is determined with the empirical approach or the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach. The empirical approach is simple but lacking in theoretical basis, while the FF-approach is theoretical rigorous but computationally demanding. Hence, the key of the threshold determination problem is how to efficiently determine the threshold in a reasonable way. In this study, a new threshold determination method named threshold function method is proposed to reduce the complexity of the FF-approach. The threshold function method simplifies the FF-approach by a modeling procedure and an approximation procedure. The modeling procedure uses a rational function model to describe the relationship between the FF-difference test threshold and the integer least-squares (ILS) success rate. The approximation procedure replaces the ILS success rate with the easy-to-calculate integer bootstrapping (IB) success rate. Corresponding modeling error and approximation error are analysed with simulation data to avoid nuisance biases and unrealistic stochastic model impact. The results indicate the proposed method can greatly simplify the FF-approach without introducing significant modeling error. The threshold function method makes the fixed failure rate threshold determination method feasible for real-time applications.