Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Comparison of surveys used to measure physical activity

Objective To compare the level of agreement in results obtained from four physical activity (PA) measurement instruments that are in use in Australia and around the world. Methods 1,280 randomly selected participants answered two sets of PA questions by telephone. 428 answered the Active Australia (AA) and National Health Surveys, 427 answered the AA and CDC Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (BRFSS), and 425 answered the AA survey and the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Results Among the three pairs of survey items, the difference in mean total PA time was lowest when the AA and NHS items were asked (difference=24) (SE:17) minutes, compared with 144 (SE:21) mins for AA/BRFSS and 406 (SE:27) mins for AA/IPAQ). Correspondingly, prevalence estimates for 'sufficiently active' were similar for AA and NHS (56% and 55% respectively), but about 10% higher when BRFSS data were used, and about 26% higher when the IPAQ items were used, compared with estimates from the AA survey. Conclusions The findings clearly demonstrate that there are large differences in reported PA times and hence in prevalence estimates of 'sufficient activity' from these four measures. Implications It is important to consistently use the same survey for population monitoring purposes. As the AA survey has now been used three times in national surveys, its continued use for population surveys is recommended so that trend data ever a longer period of time can be established.

Nanostructured copper oxide semiconductors : a perspective on materials, synthesis methods and applications

The oxides of copper (CuxO) are fascinating materials due to their remarkable optical, electrical, thermal and magnetic properties. Nanostructuring of CuxO can further enhance the performance of this important functional material and provide it with unique properties that do not exist in its bulk form. Three distinctly different phases of CuxO, mainly CuO, Cu2O and Cu4O3, can be prepared by numerous synthesis techniques including, vapour deposition and liquid phase chemical methods. In this article, we present a review of nanostructured CuxO focusing on their material properties, methods of synthesis and an overview of various applications that have been associated with nanostructured CuxO.

A review of the potential role of greenhouse gas abatement in native vegetation management in Queensland's rangelands

Concern about the risk of harmful human-induced climate change has resulted in international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. We review the international and national context for consideration of greenhouse abatement in native vegetation management and discuss potential options in Queensland. Queensland has large areas of productive or potentially productive land with native woody vegetation cover with approximately 76 million ha with woody cover remaining in 1991. High rates of tree clearing, predominantly to increase pasture productivity, continued throughout the 1990s with an average 345,000 ha/a estimated to have been cleared, including non-remnant (woody regrowth) as well as remnant vegetation. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing currently have a high uncertainty but clearing was reported to contribute a significant proportion of Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 (21%) to 1999 (13%). In Queensland, greenhouse emissions from land clearing were estimated to have been 54.5 Mt CO(2)-e in 1999. Management of native vegetation for timber harvesting and the proliferation of woody vegetation (vegetation thickening) in the grazed woodlands also represent large carbon fluxes. Forestry (plantations and native forests) in Queensland was reported to be a 4.4 Mt CO(2)-e sink in 1999 but there are a lack of comprehensive data on timber harvesting in private hardwood forests. Vegetation thickening is reported for large areas of the c. 60 million ha grazed woodlands in Queensland. The magnitude of the carbon sink in 27 million ha grazed eucalypt woodlands has been estimated to be 66 Mt CO(2)-e/a but this sink is not currently included in Australia's inventory of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Improved understanding of the function and dynamics of natural and managed ecosystems is required to support management of native vegetation to preserve and enhance carbon stocks for greenhouse benefits while meeting objectives of sustainable and productive management and biodiversity protection.

Thiophene-benzothiadiazole-thiophene (D-A-D) based polymers : Effect of donor/acceptor moieties adjacent to D-A-D segment on photophysical and photovoltaic properties

New push-pull copolymers based on thiophene (donor) and benzothiadiazole (acceptor) units, poly[4,7-bis(3-dodecylthiophene-2-yl) benzothiadiazole-co- thiophene] (PT3B1) and poly[4,7-bis(3-dodecylthiophene-2-yl) benzothiadiazole-co-benzothiadiazole] (PT2B2), are designed and synthesized via Stille and Suzuki coupling routes respectively. Gel permeation chromatography shows the number average molecular weights are 31100 and 8400 g mol-1 for the two polymers, respectively. Both polymers have shown absorption throughout a wide range of the UV-vis region, from 300 to 650 nm. A significant red shift of the absorption edge is observed in thin films compared to solution of the copolymers; the optical band gap is in the range of 1.7 to 1.8 eV. Cyclic voltammetry indicates reversible oxidation and reduction processes with HOMO energy levels calculated to be in the range of 5.2 to 5.4 eV. Upon testing both materials for organic field-effect transistors (OFETs), PT3B1 showed a hole mobility of 6.1 × 10-4 cm2 V-1 s -1, while PT2B2 did not show any field effect transport. Both copolymers displayed a photovoltaic response when combined with a methanofullerene as an electron acceptor. The best performance was achieved when the copolymer PT3B1 was blended with [70]PCBM in a 1:4 ratio, exhibiting a short-circuit current of 7.27 mA cm-2, an open circuit voltage of 0.85 V, and a fill factor of 41% yielding a power conversion efficiency of 2.54% under simulated air mass (AM) 1.5 global (1.5 G) illumination conditions (100 mW cm-2). Similar devices utilizing PT2B2 in place of PT3B1 demonstrated reduced performance with a short-circuit current of 4.8 mA cm -2, an open circuit voltage of 0.73 V, and a fill factor of 30% resulting in a power conversion efficiency of roughly 1.06%.

Coping strategies used by ballet dancers: effects of individual differences in competitive trait anxiety

The world of classical ballet exerts considerable physical and psychological stress upon those who participate, and yet the process of coping with such stressors is not well understood. Relationships between coping strategies and competitive trait anxiety were investigated among 104 classical dancers (81 females and 23 males) from three professional ballet companies, two private dance schools, and two full-time, university dance courses in Australia. Coping strategies were assessed using the Modified COPE scale (MCOPE: Crocker & Graham, 1995), a 48-item measure of 12 dimensions of coping. Competitive trait anxiety was assessed using the Sport Anxiety Scale (SAS: Smith, Smoll, & Schutz, 1990), a 21-item measure of three anxiety dimensions. Trait anxiety scores, in particular for Somatic Anxiety and Worry, predicted seven of the 12 coping strategies (Suppression of Competing Activities: R2 = 27.1%; Venting of Emotions: R2 = 23.2%; Active Coping: R2 = 14.3%; Denial: R2 = 17.7%; Self-Blame: R2 = 35.7%; Effort: R2 = 16.6%; Wishful Thinking: R2 = 42.3%). High trait anxious dancers reported more frequent use of all categories of coping strategies, some of which are considered to be maladaptive. No effects of gender or status (professional versus students) were identified. Results emphasize the need for the effectiveness of specific coping strategies to be considered during the process of preparing young classical dancers for a career in professional ballet.

Coping strategies used by ballet dancers : effects of individual differences in competitive trait anxiety

The world of classical ballet exerts considerable physical and psychological stress upon those who participate, and yet the process of coping with such stressors is not well understood. The purpose of the present investigation was to examine relationships between coping strategies and competitive trait anxiety among ballet dancers. Participants were 104 classical dancers (81 females and 23 males) ranging in age from 15 to 35 years (M = 19.4 yr., SD = 3.8 yr.) from three professional ballet companies, two private dance schools, and two full-time, university dance courses in Australia. Participants had a mean of 11.5 years of classical dance training (SD = 5.2 yr.), having started dance training at 6.6 years of age (SD = 3.4 yr.). Coping strategies were assessed using the Modified COPE scale (MCOPE: Crocker & Graham, 1995), a 48-item measure comprising 12 coping subscales (Seeking Social Support for Instrumental Reasons, Seeking Social Support for Emotional Reasons, Behavioral Disengagement, Planning, Suppression of Competing Activities, Venting of Emotions, Humor, Active Coping, Denial, Self-Blame, Effort, and Wishful Thinking). Competitive trait anxiety was assessed using the Sport Anxiety Scale (SAS: Smith, Smoll, & Schutz, 1990), a 21-item measure comprising three anxiety subscales (Somatic Anxiety, Worry, Concentration Disruption). Standard multiple regression analyses showed that trait anxiety scores, in particular for Somatic Anxiety and Worry, were significant predictors of seven of the 12 coping strategies (Suppression of Competing Activities: R2 = 27.1%; Venting of Emotions: R2 = 23.2%; Active Coping: R2 = 14.3%; Denial: R2 = 17.7%; Self-Blame: R2 = 35.7%; Effort: R2 = 16.6%; Wishful Thinking: R2 = 42.3%). High trait anxious dancers reported more frequent use of all categories of coping strategies. A separate two-way MANOVA showed no significant main effect for gender nor status (professional versus students) and no significant interaction effect. The present findings are generally consistent with previous research in the sport psychology domain (Crocker & Graham, 1995; Giacobbi & Weinberg, 2000) which has shown that high trait anxious athletes tend, in particular, to use more maladaptive, emotion-focused coping strategies when compared to low trait anxious athletes; a tendency which has been proposed to lead to negative performance effects. The present results emphasize the need for the effectiveness of specific coping strategies to be considered during the process of preparing young classical dancers for a career in professional ballet. In particular, the results suggest that dancers who are, by nature, anxious about performance may need special attention to help them to learn to cope with performance-related stress. Given the absence of differences in coping strategies between student and professional dancers and between males and females, it appears that such educational efforts should begin at an early career stage for all dancers.

The relationship between ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and objectively measured personal UVR exposure dose is modified by season and latitude

Despite the widespread use of ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) as a proxy measure of personal exposure to UVR, the relationship between the two is not well-defined. This paper examines the effects of season and latitude on the relationship between ambient UVR and personal UVR exposure. We used data from the AusD Study, a multi-centre cross-sectional study among Australian adults (18-75 years), where personal UVR exposure was objectively measured using polysulphone dosimeters. Data were analysed for 991 participants from 4 Australian cities of different latitude: Townsville (19.3 °S), Brisbane (27.5 °S), Canberra (35.3 °S) and Hobart (42.8 °S). Daily personal UVR exposure varied from 0.01 to 21 Standard Erythemal Doses (median=1.1, IQR: 0.5–2.1), on average accounting for 5% of the total available ambient dose. There was an overall positive correlation between ambient UVR and personal UVR exposure (r=0.23, p<0.001). However, the correlations varied according to season and study location: from strong correlations in winter (r=0.50) and at high latitudes (Hobart, r=0.50; Canberra, r=0.39), to null or even slightly negative correlations, in summer (r=0.01) and at low latitudes (Townsville, r=-0.06; Brisbane, r=-0.16). Multiple regression models showed significant effect modification by season and location. Personal exposure fraction of total available ambient dose was highest in winter (7%) and amongst Hobart participants (7%) and lowest in summer (1%) and in Townsville (4%). These results suggest season and latitude modify the relationship between ambient UVR and personal UVR exposure. Ambient UVR may not be a good indicator for personal exposure dose under some circumstances.

Incidence of paediatric fatal and non-fatal low speed vehicle run over events in Queensland, Australia : eleven year analysis

Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of fatal and non-fatal Low Speed Vehicle Run Over (LSVRO) events among children aged 0–15 years in Queensland, Australia, at a population level. Methods Fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events that occurred in children resident in Queensland over eleven calendar years (1999-2009) were identified using ICD codes, text description, word searches and medical notes clarification, obtained from five health related data bases across the continuum of care (pre-hospital to fatality). Data were manually linked. Population data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate crude incidence rates for fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events. Results There were 1611 LSVROs between 1999–2009 (IR = 16.87/100,000/annum). Incidence of non-fatal events (IR = 16.60/100,000/annum) was 61.5 times higher than fatal events (IR = 0.27/100,000/annum). LSVRO events were more common in boys (IR = 20.97/100,000/annum) than girls (IR = 12.55/100,000/annum), and among younger children aged 0–4 years (IR = 21.45/100000/annum; 39% or all events) than older children (5–9 years: IR = 16.47/100,000/annum; 10–15 years IR = 13.59/100,000/annum). A total of 896 (56.8%) children were admitted to hospital for 24 hours of more following an LSVRO event (IR = 9.38/100,000/annum). Total LSVROs increased from 1999 (IR = 14.79/100,000) to 2009 (IR = 18.56/100,000), but not significantly. Over the 11 year period, there was a slight (non –significant) increase in fatalities (IR = 0.37-0.42/100,000/annum); a significant decrease in admissions (IR = 12.39–5.36/100,000/annum), and significant increase in non-admissions (IR = 2.02-12.77/100,000/annum). Trends over time differed by age, gender and severity. Conclusion This is the most comprehensive, population-based epidemiological study on fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events to date. Results from this study indicate that LSVROs incur a substantial burden. Further research is required on the characteristics and risk factors associated with these events, in order to adequately inform injury prevention. Strategies are urgently required in order to prevent these events, especially among young children aged 0-4 years.

Bisphenol A exposure is not associated with area-level socioeconomic index in Australian children using pooled urine samples

Bisphenol A (BPA) is used extensively in food-contact materials and has been detected routinely in populations worldwide, and this exposure has been linked to a range of negative health outcomes in humans. There is some evidence of an association between BPA and different socioeconomic variables which may be the result of different dietary patterns. The aim of this study was to conduct a preliminary investigation of the association between BPA and socioeconomic status in Australian children using pooled urine specimens and an area level socioeconomic index. Surplus pathology urine specimens collected from children aged 0-15 years in Queensland, Australia as samples of convenience (n = 469) were pooled by age, sex and area level socioeconomic index (n = 67 pools), and analysed for total BPA using online solid phase extraction LC-MS/MS. Concentration ranged from 1.08-27.4 ng/ml with geometric mean 2.57 ng/ml, and geometric mean exposure was estimated as 70.3 ng/kg d-1. Neither BPA concentration nor excretion was associated with age or sex, and the authors found no evidence of an association with socioeconomic status. These results suggest that BPA exposure is not associated with socioeconomic status in the Australian population due to relatively homogenous exposures in Australia, or that the socioeconomic gradient is relatively slight in Australia compared with other OECD countries.

An acute cough-specific quality of life questionnaire for children: Development and validation

Background Patient-relevant outcome measures are essential for high-quality clinical research, and quality-of-life (QoL) tools are the current standard. Currently, there is no validated children's acute cough-specific QoL questionnaire. Objective The objective of this study was to develop and validate the Parent-proxy Children's Acute Cough-specific QoL Questionnaire (PAC-QoL). Methods Using focus groups, a 48-item PAC-QoL questionnaire was developed and later reduced to 16 items by using the clinical impact method. Parents of children with a current acute cough (<2 weeks) at enrollment completed 2 validated cough score measures, the preliminary 48-item PAC-QoL, and 3 other questionnaires (the State Trait Anxiety Inventory [STAI], the Short-Form 8-item 24-hour recall Health Survey [SF-8], and the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress 21-item Scale [DASS21]). All measures were repeated on days 3 and 14. Results The median age of the 155 children enrolled was 2.3 years (interquartile range, 1.3-4.6). Median cough duration at enrollment was 3 days (interquartile range, 2-5). The reduced 16-item scale had high internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.95). Evidence for repeatability and criterion validity was shown by significant correlations between the domains and total PAC-QoL scores and the SF-8 (r = −0.36 and −0.51), STAI (r = −0.27 and −0.39), and DASS21 (r = −0.32 and −0.41) scales on days 0 and 3, respectively. The final PAC-QoL questionnaire was sensitive to change over time, with changes significantly relating to changes in cough score measures (P < .001). Conclusion The 16-item PAC-QoL is a reliable and valid outcome measure that assesses QoL related to childhood acute cough at a given time point and reflects changes in acute cough-specific QoL over time.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

User preferences for text message-delivered skin cancer prevention and early detection

Evidence is needed for the acceptability and user preferences of receiving skin cancer-related text messages. We prepared 27 questions to evaluate attitudes, satisfaction with program characteristics such as timing and spacing, and overall satisfaction with the Healthy Text program in young adults. Within this randomised controlled trial (age 18-42 years), 546 participants were assigned to one of three Healthy Text message groups; sun protection, skin self-examination, or attention-control. Over a 12-month period, 21 behaviour-specific text messages were sent to each group. Participants’ preferences were compared between the two interventions and control group at the 12-month follow-up telephone interview. In all three groups, participants reported the messages were easy to understand (98%), provided good suggestions or ideas (88%), and were encouraging (86%) and informative (85%) with little difference between the groups. The timing of the texts was received positively (92%); however, some suggestions for frequency or time of day the messages were received from 8% of participants. Participants in the two intervention groups found their messages more informative, and triggering behaviour change compared to control. Text messages about skin cancer prevention and early detection are novel and acceptable to induce behaviour change in young adults.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to lead exposure in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to lead exposure in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Recent community studies were used to derive mean blood lead concentrations in adults and children in urban and rural areas. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in the year 2000. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Children under 5 and adults 30 years and older. Outcome measures Cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in adults 30 years and older and mild mental disability DALYs in children under 5 years. Results Lead exposure was estimated to cause 1 428 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1 086-1 772) or 0.27% (95% uncertainty interval: 0.21 - 0.34%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Burden of disease attributed to lead exposure was dominated by mild mental disability in young children, accounting for 75% of the total 58 939 (95% uncertainty interval 55 413 - 62 500) attributable DALYs. Cardiovascular disease in adults accounted for the remainder of the burden. Conclusions Even with the phasing out of leaded petrol, exposure to lead from its ongoing addition to paint, paraoccupational exposure and its use in backyard 'cottage industries' will continue to be an important public health hazard in South Africa for decades. Young children, especially those from disadvantaged communities, remain particularly vulnerable to lead exposure and poisoning.