Modelling the economic benefits of gold standard care for chronic wounds in a community setting

Chronic leg ulcers are costly to manage for health service providers. Although evidence-based care leads to improved healing rates and reduced costs, a significant evidence-practice gap is known to exist. Lack of access to specialist skills in wound care is one reason suggested for this gap. The aim of this study was to model the change to total costs and health outcomes under two versions of health services for patients with leg ulcers: routine health services for community-living patients; and care provided by specialist wound clinics. Mean weekly treatment and health services costs were estimated from participants’ data (n=70) for the twelve months prior to their entry to a study specialist wound clinic, and prospectively for 24 weeks after entry. For the retrospective phase mean weekly costs of care were $AU130.30 (SD $12.64) and these fell to $AU53.32 (SD $6.47) for the prospective phase. Analysis at a population level suggests if 10,000 individuals receive 12 weeks of specialist evidence-based care, the cost savings are likely to be AU$9,238,800. Significant savings could be made by the adoption of evidence-based care such as that provided by the community and outpatient specialist wound clinics in this study.

Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

Incorporating adverse event relatedness into dose-finding clinical trial designs

Dose-finding designs estimate the dose level of a drug based on observed adverse events. Relatedness of the adverse event to the drug has been generally ignored in all proposed design methodologies. These designs assume that the adverse events observed during a trial are definitely related to the drug, which can lead to flawed dose-level estimation. We incorporate adverse event relatedness into the so-called continual reassessment method. Adverse events that have ‘doubtful’ or ‘possible’ relationships to the drug are modelled using a two-parameter logistic model with an additive probability mass. Adverse events ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ related to the drug are modelled using a cumulative logistic model. To search for the maximum tolerated dose, we use the maximum estimated toxicity probability of these two adverse event relatedness categories. We conduct a simulation study that illustrates the characteristics of the design under various scenarios. This article demonstrates that adverse event relatedness is important for improved dose estimation. It opens up further research pathways into continual reassessment design methodologies.

Prediction with limited advice and multiarmed bandits with paid observations

We study two problems of online learning under restricted information access. In the first problem, prediction with limited advice, we consider a game of prediction with expert advice, where on each round of the game we query the advice of a subset of M out of N experts. We present an algorithm that achieves O(√(N/M)TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game. The second problem, the multiarmed bandit with paid observations, is a variant of the adversarial N-armed bandit game, where on round t of the game we can observe the reward of any number of arms, but each observation has a cost c. We present an algorithm that achieves O((cNlnN) 1/3 T2/3+√TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game in the worst case. Furthermore, we present a number of refinements that treat arm- and time-dependent observation costs and achieve lower regret under benign conditions. We present lower bounds that show that, apart from the logarithmic factors, the worst-case regret bounds cannot be improved.

Open problem : adversarial multiarmed bandits with limited advice

Adversarial multiarmed bandits with expert advice is one of the fundamental problems in studying the exploration-exploitation trade-o. It is known that if we observe the advice of all experts on every round we can achieve O(√KTlnN) regret, where K is the number of arms, T is the number of game rounds, and N is the number of experts. It is also known that if we observe the advice of just one expert on every round, we can achieve regret of order O(√NT). Our open problem is what can be achieved by asking M experts on every round, where 1 < M < N.

PAC-Bayes-empirical-Bernstein inequality

We present PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality. The inequality is based on combination of PAC-Bayesian bounding technique with Empirical Bernstein bound. It allows to take advantage of small empirical variance and is especially useful in regression. We show that when the empirical variance is significantly smaller than the empirical loss PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality is significantly tighter than PAC-Bayes-kl inequality of Seeger (2002) and otherwise it is comparable. PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality is an interesting example of application of PAC-Bayesian bounding technique to self-bounding functions. We provide empirical comparison of PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality with PAC-Bayes-kl inequality on a synthetic example and several UCI datasets.

The effect of electrode material on the electrochemical formation of porous copper surfaces using hydrogen bubble templating

The electrodeposition of copper onto copper, gold, palladium and glassy carbon (GC) electrodes via a hydrogen bubble templating method is reported. It is found that the composition of the underlying electrode material significantly influences the morphology of the copper electrodeposit. Highly ordered porous structures are achieved with Cu and Au electrodes, however on Pd this order is disrupted and a rough randomly oriented surface is formed whereas on GC a bubble templating effect is not observed. Chronopotentiograms recorded during the electrodeposition process allows bubble formation and detachment from the surface to be monitored where distinctly different potential versus time profiles are observed at the different electrodes. The porous Cu surfaces are characterised with scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction and cyclic voltammetric measurements recorded under alkaline conditions. The latter demonstrates that there are active sites present on electrodeposited copper whose coverage and reactivity depend on the underlying electrode material. The most active Cu surface is achieved at a Pd substrate for both the hydrogen evolution reaction and the catalytic reduction of ferricyanide ions with thiosulphate ions. This demonstrates that the highly ordered porous structure on the micron scale which typifies the morphology that can be achieved with the hydrogen bubbling template method is not required in producing the most effective material.

Simulation of plant cell shrinkage during drying : A SPH–DEM approach

Plant based dried food products are popular commodities in global market where much research is focused to improve the products and processing techniques. In this regard, numerical modelling is highly applicable and in this work, a coupled meshfree particle-based two-dimensional (2-D) model was developed to simulate micro-scale deformations of plant cells during drying. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) was used to model the viscous cell protoplasm (cell fluid) by approximating it to an incompressible Newtonian fluid. The visco-elastic characteristic of the cell wall was approximated to a Neo-Hookean solid material augmented with a viscous term and modelled with a Discrete Element Method (DEM). Compared to a previous work [H. C. P. Karunasena, W. Senadeera, Y. T. Gu and R. J. Brown, Appl. Math. Model., 2014], this study proposes three model improvements: linearly decreasing positive cell turgor pressure during drying, cell wall contraction forces and cell wall drying. The improvements made the model more comparable with experimental findings on dried cell morphology and geometric properties such as cell area, diameter, perimeter, roundness, elongation and compactness. This single cell model could be used as a building block for advanced tissue models which are highly applicable for product and process optimizations in Food Engineering.

A meshfree-based local Galerkin method with condensation of degree of freedom for elastic dynamic analysis

Condensation technique of degree of freedom is first proposed to improve the computational efficiency of meshfree method with Galerkin weak form for elastic dynamic analysis. In the present method, scattered nodes without connectivity are divided into several subsets by cells with arbitrary shape. Local discrete equation is established over each cell by using moving Kriging interpolation, in which the nodes that located in the cell are used for approximation. Then local discrete equations can be simplified by condensation of degree of freedom, which transfers equations of inner nodes to equations of boundary nodes based on cells. The global dynamic system equations are obtained by assembling all local discrete equations and are solved by using the standard implicit Newmark’s time integration scheme. In the scheme of present method, the calculation of each cell is carried out by meshfree method, and local search is implemented in interpolation. Numerical examples show that the present method has high computational efficiency and good accuracy in solving elastic dynamic problems.

Simultaneous magnetic resonance imaging and consolidation measurement of articular cartilage

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) offers the opportunity to study biological tissues and processes in a non-disruptive manner. The technique shows promise for the study of the load-bearing performance (consolidation) of articular cartilage and changes in articular cartilage accompanying osteoarthritis. Consolidation of articular cartilage involves the recording of two transient characteristics: the change over time of strain and the hydrostatic excess pore pressure (HEPP). MRI study of cartilage consolidation under mechanical load is limited by difficulties in measuring the HEPP in the presence of the strong magnetic fields associated with the MRI technique. Here we describe the use of MRI to image and characterize bovine articular cartilage deforming under load in an MRI compatible consolidometer while monitoring pressure with a Fabry-Perot interferometer-based fiber-optic pressure transducer.

Using communicative ecology theory to scope the emerging role of social media in the evolution of urban food systems

Urban agriculture plays an increasingly vital role in supplying food to urban populations. Changes in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) are already driving widespread change in diverse food-related industries such as retail, hospitality and marketing. It is reasonable to suspect that the fields of ubiquitous technology, urban informatics and social media equally have a lot to offer the evolution of core urban food systems. We use communicative ecology theory to describe emerging innovations in urban food systems according to their technical, discursive and social components. We conclude that social media in particular accentuate fundamental social interconnections normally effaced by conventional industrialised approaches to food production and consumption.

Fluid-structure interaction analysis by coupled FE-SPH model based on a novel searching algorithm

Fluid–Structure Interaction (FSI) problem is significant in science and engineering, which leads to challenges for computational mechanics. The coupled model of Finite Element and Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (FE-SPH) is a robust technique for simulation of FSI problems. However, two important steps of neighbor searching and contact searching in the coupled FE-SPH model are extremely time-consuming. Point-In-Box (PIB) searching algorithm has been developed by Swegle to improve the efficiency of searching. However, it has a shortcoming that efficiency of searching can be significantly affected by the distribution of points (nodes in FEM and particles in SPH). In this paper, in order to improve the efficiency of searching, a novel Striped-PIB (S-PIB) searching algorithm is proposed to overcome the shortcoming of PIB algorithm that caused by points distribution, and the two time-consuming steps of neighbor searching and contact searching are integrated into one searching step. The accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed searching algorithm is studied on by efficiency test and FSI problems. It has been found that the newly developed model can significantly improve the computational efficiency and it is believed to be a powerful tool for the FSI analysis.

Exploration of mechanisms underlying the strain-rate-dependent mechanical property of single chondrocytes

Based on the characterization by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), we report that the mechanical property of single chondrocytes has dependency on the strain-rates. By comparing the mechanical deformation responses and the Young’s moduli of living and fixed chondrocytes at four different strain-rates, we explore the deformation mechanisms underlying this dependency property. We found that the strain-rate-dependent mechanical property of living cells is governed by both of the cellular cytoskeleton (CSK) and the intracellular fluid when the fixed chondrocytes is mainly governed by their intracellular fluid which is called the consolidation-dependent deformation behavior. Finally, we report that the porohyperelastic (PHE) constitutive material model which can capture the consolidation-dependent behavior of both living and fixed chondrocytes is a potential candidature to study living cell biomechanics.

Neutral and charged boron-doped fullerenes for CO2 adsorption

Recently, the capture and storage of CO2 have attracted research interest as a strategy to reduce the global emissions of greenhouse gases. It is crucial to find suitable materials to achieve an efficient CO2 capture. Here we report our study of CO2 adsorption on boron-doped C60 fullerene in the neutral state and in the 1e−-charged state. We use first principle density functional calculations to simulate the CO2 adsorption. The results show that CO2 can form weak interactions with the BC59 cage in its neutral state and the interactions can be enhanced significantly by introducing an extra electron to the system.

Treatment plan complexity metrics for predicting IMRT pre-treatment quality assurance results

The planning of IMRT treatments requires a compromise between dose conformity (complexity) and deliverability. This study investigates established and novel treatment complexity metrics for 122 IMRT beams from prostate treatment plans. The Treatment and Dose Assessor software was used to extract the necessary data from exported treatment plan files and calculate the metrics. For most of the metrics, there was strong overlap between the calculated values for plans that passed and failed their quality assurance (QA) tests. However, statistically significant variation between plans that passed and failed QA measurements was found for the established modulation index and for a novel metric describing the proportion of small apertures in each beam. The ‘small aperture score’ provided threshold values which successfully distinguished deliverable treatment plans from plans that did not pass QA, with a low false negative rate.