Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Resilience and opportunity : regions and the roll-out of Australia's greenhouse gas abatement programs. A manual for Queensland's NRM regions

Voluntary and compliance markets for forest carbon and other (emission avoidance and biosequestration) activities are growing internationally and across Australia. Queensland and its Natural Resource Management (NRM) regions have an opportunity to take a variety of actions to help guide these markets to secure multiple landscape benefits and to build landscape resilience in the face of climate change. As the national arrangements for offsets within Australia’s Clean Energy Package (CEP) and emissions trading environment emerge, Queensland’s regions can prepare themselves and their landholding communities to take advantage of these opportunities to deliver improved climate resilience in their regional landscapes.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

SWIRLnet : portable anemometer network for wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are often ‘guestimated’ from analyzing damaged structures. A re-locatable anemometer system is required to enable measurements of wind speeds. This paper discusses design criteria of the tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation, and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for 1 second response, however, it is noted that the Australian building code and wind loading standard uses a moving average time of approximately 0.2 seconds for its wind speed design criteria.

Wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones using SWIRLnet, a portable anemometer network

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Given this, tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are seldom measured and often only ‘guestimated’ by analysing the extent of damage to structures. In an attempt to overcome this dearth of data, a re-locatable network of anemometers to be deployed prior to tropical cyclone landfall is currently being developed. This paper discusses design criteria of the network’s tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for measuring the spectral component of wind with frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. This system limitation highlights an important difference between the capabilities of modern instrumentation and that of the Dines anemometer (around 0.2 seconds) that was used to develop much of the design criteria within the Australian building code and wind loading standard.

Workflow patterns as a means to model task succession in games – a preliminary case study

Over about the last decade, people involved in game development have noted the need for more formal models and tools to support the design phase of games. It is argued that the present lack of such formal tools is currently hindering knowledge transfer among designers. Formal visual languages, on the other hand, can help to more effectively express, abstract and communicate game design concepts. Moreover, formal tools can assist in the prototyping phase, allowing designers to reason about and simulate game mechanics on an abstract level. In this paper we present an initial investigation into whether workflow patterns – which have already proven to be effective for modeling business processes – are a suitable way to model task succession in games. Our preliminary results suggest that workflow patterns show promise in this regard but some limitations, especially in regard to time constraints, currently restrict their potential.

'Not a Local Win': Rural Australian perceptions of the sustainable impacts of forest plantations

Australian forestry plantations have doubled in the past 15 years, with rural communities harbouring a diverse range of positive and negative of economic, environmental and social impacts – the so-called triple bottom line (TBL). Utilising two Australian rural communities in Eden/Gippsland and Tasmania as qualitative case studies, this research explores how 23 non-forestry affiliated rural residents perceived and experienced the TBL economic, environmental and social impacts of plantation forestry. Residents criticised the economic plantation forestry benefits because of lengthy periods of inactivity and limited local employment, explaining that their community was reliant on the industry yet the promised economic benefits had never fully materialised. There was a sense the industry ‘plant and walk away.’ Residents were concerned about the environment impact on water quality, water tables and fire hazards, although they praised plantation forestry for carbon sequestering, eradicating erosion and water run-off. Negative social impacts were described, specifically how the land-use change from farming to forestry had significantly reduced the local population, employment and need for services. Natural resource management and communication strategies are offered, derived from non-forestry affiliated rural resident perspectives on how best to ensure sustainable forest development in their community.

Impact of nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from an intensive broccoli production system in sub-tropical Australia

Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser. Elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected as a consequence. In order to mitigate N2O emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, the use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted. However, no data is currently available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on N2O emissions and yield from broccoli production in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously (3 h sampling frequency) with fully automated, pneumatically operated measuring chambers linked to a sampling control system and a gas chromatograph. Cumulative N2O emissions over the 5 month observation period amounted to 298 g-N/ha, 324 g-N/ha, 411 g-N/ha and 463 g-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment (DMPP), the DMMP treatment with a 10% reduced fertiliser rate (DMPP-red) and the zero fertiliser (0N), respectively. The temporal variation of N2O fluxes showed only low emissions over the broccoli cropping phase, but significantly elevated emissions were observed in all treatments following broccoli residues being incorporated into the soil. Overall 70–90% of the total emissions occurred in this 5 weeks fallow phase. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content over the broccoli cropping phase where the application of DMPP reduced N2O emissions by 75% compared to the standard practice. However, there was no statistical difference between the treatments during the fallow phase or when the whole season was considered. This study shows that DMPP has the potential to reduce N2O emissions from intensive vegetable systems, but also highlights the importance of post-harvest emissions from incorporated vegetable residues. N2O mitigation strategies in vegetable systems need to target these post-harvest emissions and a better evaluation of the effect of nitrification inhibitors over the fallow phase is needed.

Succession law keeping pace with changes in technology and community expectations – informal wills

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into recent developments in the way the law of succession allows people to use new technologies to document their testamentary intentions in an informal way. Design/methodology/approach – This article considers one area in which the law has arguably kept good pace with advances in society’s expectations and technological change – the law of succession. This article examines the legislative reforms in Queensland and other jurisdictions permitting the recognition of informal wills and the decided cases in the area. In particular, the article examines the decision in a Queensland Supreme Court case in which the court recognised the validity of a will made on an iPhone. Research limitations/implications – This is a doctrinal analysis, not an empirical study, and accordingly is limited to providing details specific to the legislation and the court cases selected.

In for the long haul : family business succession at HaulageCo

This is a case about family business succession. Because many successions fail, the 'problem of succession' is a key issue in the family business field (see Aronoff 1998; Bird eta/. 2002; Dyer & Sanchez 1998; Sharma 2004; Zalu·a & Sharma 2004). Indeed, from the non-family business literature, we know one third of relay successions - like this case where there is an identified successor - will fail, with the prospective CEO leaving before succeeding the incumbent CEO (Cmmella & Shen 2001). Research on next generation family business members is limited. Successor ath·ibutes (Chrisman, Chua & Sharma 1998; Sharma & Rao 2000), as well as various characteristics such as socialisation (Garcia-Aivmez, L6pez-Sintas & Gonzalvo 2002) a11d gender (Haberman & Danes 2007; Vera & Dean 2005) have all been considered to play a role. So too have successor intentions (Stavrou & Swiercz 1998), motivation (Le Breton-Miller, Miller & Steier 2004), commitment (Sharma & Irving 2005) and transformation from follower to leadership (Cater & Justis 2009). In this case, by outlining the socialisation of the successors, explanations of their motivations for joining a11d their current employment we can begin to see some of the underlying mechanisms at work motivating the next generation to join and stay in the family business.

Greenhouse gas emissions from sub-tropical agricultural soils after addition of organic by-products

As the cost of mineral fertilisers increases globally, organic soil amendments (OAs) from agricultural sources are increasingly being used as substitutes for nitrogen. However, the impact of OAs on the production of greenhouse gases (CO2 and N2O) is not well understood. A 60-day laboratory incubation experiment was conducted to investigate the impacts of applying OAs (equivalent to 296 kg N ha−1 on average) on N2O and CO2 emissions and soil properties of clay and sandy loam soils from sugar cane production. The experiment included 6 treatments, one being an un-amended (UN) control with addition of five OAs being raw mill mud (MM), composted mill mud (CM), high N compost (HC), rice husk biochar (RB), and raw mill mud plus rice husk biochar (MB). These OAs were incubated at 60, 75 and 90% water-filled pore space (WFPS) at 25°C with urea (equivalent to 200 kg N ha−1) added to the soils thirty days after the incubation commenced. Results showed WFPS did not influence CO2 emissions over the 60 days but the magnitude of emissions as a proportion of C applied was RB < CM < MB < HC

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.