Optimization of container process at seaport terminals

Seaport container terminals are an important part of the logistics systems in international trades. This paper investigates the relationship between quay cranes, yard machines and container storage locations in a multi-berth and multi-ship environment. The aims are to develop a model for improving the operation efficiency of the seaports and to develop an analytical tool for yard operation planning. Due to the fact that the container transfer times are sequence-dependent and with the large number of variables involve, the proposed model cannot be solved in a reasonable time interval for realistically sized problems. For this reason, List Scheduling and Tabu Search algorithms have been developed to solve this formidable and NP-hard scheduling problem. Numerical implementations have been analysed and promising results have been achieved.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Psychometric properties of the parents' fever management scale in a Turkish population

Aim: This paper reports a study designed to assess the psychometric properties (validity and reliability) of a Turkish version of the Australian Parents’ Fever Management Scale (PFMS). Background: Little is known about childhood fever management among Turkish parents. No scales to measure parents’ fever management practices in Turkey are available. Design: This is a methodological study. Methods: Eighty parents, of febrile children aged six months to five years, were randomly selected from the paedaitric hospital and two community family health centers in Sakarya, Turkey. The PFMS was back translated; language equivalence and content validity were validated. PFMS and socio-demographic data were collected in 2009. Means and standard deviations were calculated for interval level data and p values greater than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Unrotated principal component analysis was used to determine construct validity and Cronbach’s coefficient alpha determined the internal consistency reliability. Results: The PFMS was psychometrically sound in this population. Construct validity, confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis [KMO 0.812, Bartlett’s Specificity (χ² = 182.799, df=28, P < 0·001)] revealed the Turkish version to be comprised of the eight original PFMS items. Internal consistency reliability coefficient was 0.80 and the scale’s total-item correlation coefficients ranged from 0.15 to 0.66 and were significant (p<0.001). Interestingly parents reported high scores on the PFMS 34.52±4.60 (range 8-40 with 40 indicating a high burden of care for febrile children). Conclusion: The PFMS was as psychometrically robust in a Turkish population as in an Australian population and is, therefore, a useful tool for health professionals to identify parents’ practices, provide targeted education thereby in reducing the unnecessary burden of care they place on themselves when caring for a febrile child. Relevance to clinical practice. Testing in different populations, cultures and healthcare systems will further assist in reporting the PFMS usefulness in clinical practice and research.

Relationship between physical activity and stiff or painful joints in mid-aged women and older women: a 3-year prospective study

This prospective study examined the association between physical activity and the incidence of self-reported stiff or painful joints (SPJ) among mid-age women and older women over a 3-year period. Data were collected from cohorts of mid-age (48–55 years at Time 1; n = 4,780) and older women (72–79 years at Time 1; n = 3,970) who completed mailed surveys 3 years apart for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Physical activity was measured with the Active Australia questions and categorized based on metabolic equivalent value minutes per week: none (<40 MET.min/week); very low (40 to <300 MET.min/week); low (300 to <600 MET.min/week); moderate (600 to <1,200 MET.min/week); and high (1,200+ MET.min/week). Cohort-specific logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity at Time 1 and SPJ 'sometimes or often' and separately 'often' at Time 2. Respondents reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' at Time 1 were excluded from analysis. In univariate models, the odds of reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' were lower for mid-age respondents reporting low (odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63–0.94), moderate (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.99), and high (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62–0.90) physical activity levels and for older respondents who were moderately (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.98) or highly active (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69–0.99) than for those who were sedentary. After adjustment for confounders, these associations were no longer statistically significant. The odds of reporting SPJ 'often' were lower for mid-age respondents who were moderately active (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.52–0.97) than for sedentary respondents in univariate but not adjusted models. Older women in the low (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55–0.96), moderate (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39–0.76), and high (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.46–0.82) physical activity categories had lower odds of reporting SPJ 'often' at Time 2 than their sedentary counterparts, even after adjustment for confounders. These results are the first to show a dose–response relationship between physical activity and arthritis symptoms in older women. They suggest that advice for older women not currently experiencing SPJ should routinely include counseling on the importance of physical activity for preventing the onset of these symptoms.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Quality of life and genetics in men with prostate cancer

As family history has been established as a risk factor for prostate cancer, attempts have been made to isolate predisposing genetic variants that are related to hereditary prostate cancer. With many genetic variants still to be identified and investigated, it is not yet possible to fully understand the impact of genetic variants on prostate cancer development. The high survival rates among men with prostate cancer have meant that other issues, such as quality of life (QoL), have also become important. Through their effect on a person’s health, a range of inherited genetic variants may potentially influence QoL in men with prostate cancer, even prior to treatment. Until now, limited research has been conducted on the relationship between genetics and QoL. Thus, this study contributes to an emerging field by aiming to identify certain genetic variants related to the QoL found in men with prostate cancer. It is hoped that this study may lead to future research that will identify men who have an increased risk of a poor QoL following prostate cancer treatment, which will aid in developing treatments that are individually tailored to support them. Previous studies have established that genetic variants of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) and Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) may play a role in prostate cancer development. VEGF and IGF-1 have also been reported to be associated with QoL in people with ovarian cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. This study completed a series of secondary analyses using two major data-sets (from 850 men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer, and approximately 550 men from the general Queensland population), in which genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 were investigated for associations with prostate cancer susceptibility and QoL. The first aim of this research was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-I gene for an association with the risk of prostate cancer. It was found that one IGF-1 genetic variant (rs35765) had a statistically significant association with prostate cancer (p = 0.04), and one VEGF genetic variant (rs2146323) had a statistically significant association with advanced prostate cancer (p = 0.02). The estimates suggest that carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs35765 may have a reduced risk of developing prostate cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.55, 0.95, OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.26, 1.39, respectively). Meanwhile, carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs2146323 may be at increased risk of advanced prostate cancer, which was determined by a Gleason score of above 7 (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.63, OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.08, 3.34, respectively). Utilising the widely used short-form health survey, the SF-36v2, the second aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between prostate cancer and QoL prior to treatment. Assessing QoL at this time-point was important as little research has been conducted to evaluate if prostate cancer affects QoL regardless of treatment. The analyses found that mean SF-36v2 scale scores related to physical health were higher by at least 0.3 Standard Deviations (SD) among men with prostate cancer than the general population comparison group. This difference was considered clinically significant (defined by group differences in mean SF-36v2 scores by at least 0.3 SD). These differences were also statistically significant (p<0.05). Mean QoL scale scores related to mental health were similar between men with prostate cancer and those from the general population comparison group. The third aim of this study was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-1 gene for an association with QoL in prostate cancer patients prior to their treatment. It was essential to evaluate these relationships prior to treatment, before the involvement of these genes was potentially interrupted by treatment. The analyses found that some genetic variants had a small clinically significant association (0.3 SD) to some QoL domains experienced by these men. However, most relationships were not statistically significant (p>0.05). Most of the associations found identified that a small sub-group of men with prostate cancer (approximately 2%) reported, on average, a slightly better QoL than the majority of the prostate cancer patients. The fourth aim of this research was to investigate whether associations between genetic variants in VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL were specific to men with prostate cancer, or were also applicable to the general male population. It was found that twenty out of one-hundred relationships between the genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL health-measures and scales examined differed between these groups. In the majority of the relationships involving VEGF SNPs that differed, a clinically significant difference (0.3 or more SD) between mean scores among the genotype groups in prostate cancer patients was found, while mean scores among men from the general-population comparison group were similar. For example, prostate cancer participants who carried at least one T allele (CT or TT genotype) for rs3024994 had a clinically significant higher (0.3 SD) mean QoL score in terms of the role-physical scale, than participants who carried the CC genotype. This was not seen among men from the general population sample, as the mean score was similar between genotype groups. The opposite was seen in regards to the IGF-1 SNPs examined. Overall, these relationships were not considered to directly impact on the clinical options for men with prostate cancer. As this study utilised secondary data from two separate studies, there are a number of important limitations that should be acknowledged including issues of multiple comparisons, power, and missing or unavailable data. It is recommended that this study be replicated as a better-designed study that takes greater consideration of the many factors involved in prostate cancer and QoL. Investigation into other genetic variants of VEGF or IGF-1 is also warranted, as is consideration of other genes and their relationship with QoL. Through identifying certain genetic variants that have a modest association to prostate cancer, this project adds to the knowledge surrounding VEGF and IGF-1 and their role in prostate cancer susceptibility. Importantly, this project has also introduced the potential role genetics plays in QoL, through investigating the relationships between genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL.

Sit versus stand : can sitting be accurately identified using MTI accelerometer data?

High levels of sitting have been linked with poor health outcomes. Previously a pragmatic MTI accelerometer data cut-point (100 count/min-1) has been used to estimate sitting. Data on the accuracy of this cut-point is unavailable. PURPOSE: To ascertain whether the 100 count/min-1 cut-point accurately isolates sitting from standing activities. METHODS: Participants fitted with an MTI accelerometer were observed performing a range of sitting, standing, light & moderate activities. 1-min epoch MTI data were matched to observed activities, then re-categorized as either sitting or not using the 100 count/min-1 cut-point. Self-report demographics and current physical activity were collected. Generalized estimating equation for repeated measures with a binary logistic model analyses (GEE), corrected for age, gender and BMI, were conducted to ascertain the odds of the MTI data being misclassified. RESULTS: Data were from 26 healthy subjects (8 men; 50% aged <25 years; mean BMI (SD) 22.7(3.8)m/kg2). MTI sitting and standing data mode was 0 count/min-1, with 46% of sitting activities and 21% of standing activities recording 0 count/min-1. The GEE was unable to accurately isolate sitting from standing activities using the 100 count/min-1 cut-point, since all sitting activities were incorrectly predicted as standing (p=0.05). To further explore the sensitivity of MTI data to delineate sitting from standing, the upper 95% confidence interval of the mean for the sitting activities (46 count/min-1) was used to re-categorise the data; this resulted in the GEE correctly classifying 49% of sitting, and 69% of standing activities. Using the 100 count/min-1 cut-point the data were re-categorised into a combined ‘sit/stand’ category and tested against other light activities: 88% of sit/stand and 87% of light activities were accurately predicted. Using Freedson’s moderate cut-point of 1952 count/min-1 the GEE accurately predicted 97% of light vs. 90% of moderate activities. CONCLUSION: The distributions of MTI recorded sitting and standing data overlap considerably, as such the 100 count/min -1 cut-point did not accurately isolate sitting from other static standing activities. The 100 count/min -1 cut-point more accurately predicted sit/stand vs. other movement orientated activities.

The effect of ocular surface conditions on blink rate and completeness

A healthy human would be expected to show periodic blinks, making a brief closure of the eyelids. Most blinks are spontaneous, occurring regularly with no external stimulus. However a reflex blink can occur in response to external stimuli such as a bright light, a sudden loud noise, or an object approaching toward the eyes. A voluntary or forced blink is another type of blink in which the person deliberately closes the eyes and the lower eyelid raises to meet the upper eyelid. A complete blink, in which the upper eyelid touches the lower eyelid, contributes to the health of ocular surface by providing a fresh layer of tears as well as maintaining optical integrity by providing a smooth tear film over the cornea. The rate of blinking and its completeness vary depending on the task undertaken during blink assessment, the direction of gaze, the emotional state of the subjects and the method under which the blink was measured. It is also well known that wearing contact lenses (both rigid and soft lenses) can induce significant changes in blink rate and completeness. It is been established that efficient blinking plays an important role in ocular surface health during contact lens wear and for improving contact lens performance and comfort. Inefficient blinking during contact lens wear may be related to a low blink rate or incomplete blinking and can often be a reason for dry eye symptoms or ocular surface staining. It has previously been shown that upward gaze can affect blink rate, causing it to become faster. In the first experiment, it was decided to expand on previous studies in this area by examining the effect of various gaze directions (i.e. upward gaze, primary gaze, downward gaze and lateral gaze) as well as head angle (recumbent position) on normal subjects’ blink rate and completeness through the use of filming with a high-speed camera. The results of this experiment showed that as the open palpebral aperture (and exposed ocular surface area) increased from downward gaze to upward gaze, the number of blinks significantly increased (p<0.04). Also, the size of closed palpebral aperture significantly increased from downward gaze to upward gaze (p<0.005). A weak positive correlation (R² = 0.18) between the blink rate and ocular surface area was found in this study. Also, it was found that the subjects showed 81% complete blinks, 19% incomplete blinks and 2% of twitch blinks in primary gaze, consistent with previous studies. The difference in the percentage of incomplete blinks between upward gaze and downward gaze was significant (p<0.004), showing more incomplete blinks in upward gaze. The findings of this experiment suggest that while blink rate becomes slower in downward gaze, the completeness of blinking is typically better, thereby potentially reducing the risk of tear instability. On the other hand, in upward gaze while the completeness of blinking becomes worse, this is potentially offset by increased blink frequency. In addition, blink rate and completeness were not affected by lateral gaze or head angle, possibly because these conditions have similar size of the open palpebral aperture compared with primary gaze. In the second experiment, an investigation into the changes in blink rate and completeness was carried out in primary gaze and downward gaze with soft and rigid contact lenses in unadapted wearers. Not surprisingly, rigid lens wear caused a significant increase in the blink rate in both primary (p<0.001) and downward gaze (p<0.02). After fitting rigid contact lenses, the closed palpebral aperture (blink completeness) did not show any changes but the open palpebral aperture showed a significant narrowing (p<0.04). This might occur from the subjects’ attempt to avoid interaction between the upper eyelid and the edge of the lens to minimize discomfort. After applying topical anaesthetic eye drops in the eye fitted with rigid lenses, the increased blink rate dropped to values similar to that before lens insertion and the open palpebral aperture returned to baseline values, suggesting that corneal and/or lid margin sensitivity was mediating the increased blink rate and narrowed palpebral aperture. We also investigated the changes in the blink rate and completeness with soft contact lenses including a soft sphere, double slab-off toric design and periballast toric design. Soft contact lenses did not cause any significant changes in the blink rate, closed palpebral aperture, open palpebral aperture and the percentage of incomplete blinks in either primary gaze or downward gaze. After applying anaesthetic eye drops, the blink rate reduced in both primary gaze and downward gaze, however this difference was not statistically significant. The size of the closed palpebral aperture and open palpebral aperture did not show any significant changes after applying anaesthetic eye drops. However it should be noted that the effects of rigid and soft contact lenses that we observed in these studies were only the immediate reaction to contact lenses and in the longer term, it is likely that these responses will vary as the eye adapts to the presence of the lenses.

Arterial travel time estimation : revisiting the classical procedure

Travel time is an important network performance measure and it quantifies congestion in a manner easily understood by all transport users. In urban networks, travel time estimation is challenging due to number of reasons such as, fluctuations in traffic flow due to traffic signals, significant flow to/from mid link sinks/sources, etc. The classical analytical procedure utilizes cumulative plots at upstream and downstream locations for estimating travel time between the two locations. In this paper, we discuss about the issues and challenges with classical analytical procedure such as its vulnerability to non conservation of flow between the two locations. The complexity with respect to exit movement specific travel time is discussed. Recently, we have developed a methodology utilising classical procedure to estimate average travel time and its statistic on urban links (Bhaskar, Chung et al. 2010). Where, detector, signal and probe vehicle data is fused. In this paper we extend the methodology for route travel time estimation and test its performance using simulation. The originality is defining cumulative plots for each exit turning movement utilising historical database which is self updated after each estimation. The performance is also compared with a method solely based on probe (Probe-only). The performance of the proposed methodology has been found insensitive to different route flow, with average accuracy of more than 94% given a probe per estimation interval which is more than 5% increment in accuracy with respect to Probe-only method.

The effects of the 2009 dust storm on emergency admissions to a hospital in Brisbane, Australia

In September 2009 an enormous dust storm swept across eastern Australia. Dust is potentially hazardous to health as it interferes with breathing, and previous dust storms have been linked to increased risks of asthma and even death. We examined whether the 2009 Australian dust storm changed the volume or characteristics of emergency admissions to hospital. We used an observational study design, using time series analyses to examine changes in the number of admissions, and case-only analyses to examine changes in the characteristics of admissions. The admission data were from the Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, between 1 January 2009 and 31 October 2009. There was a 39% increase in emergency admissions associated with the storm (95% confidence interval: 5, 81%), which lasted for just one day. The health effects of the storm could not be detected using particulate matter levels. We found no significant change in the characteristics of admissions during the storm, specifically there was no increase in respiratory admissions. The dust storm had a short-lived impact on emergency hospital admissions. This may be because the public took effective avoidance measures, or because the dust was simply not toxic, being mainly composed of soil. Emergency departments should be prepared for a short-term increase in admissions during dust storms.

Telemonitoring or Structured Telephone Support Programmes for Patients with Chronic Heart Failure: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective: To determine whether remote monitoring (structured telephone support or telemonitoring) without regular clinic or home visits improves outcomes for patients with chronic heart failure. Data sources: 15 electronic databases, hand searches of previous studies, and contact with authors and experts. Data extraction: Two investigators independently screened the results. Review methods: Published randomised controlled trials comparing remote monitoring programmes with usual care in patients with chronic heart failure managed within the community. Results: 14 randomised controlled trials (4264 patients) of remote monitoring met the inclusion criteria: four evaluated telemonitoring, nine evaluated structured telephone support, and one evaluated both. Remote monitoring programmes reduced the rates of admission to hospital for chronic heart failure by 21% (95% confidence interval 11% to 31%) and all cause mortality by 20% (8% to 31%); of the six trials evaluating health related quality of life three reported significant benefits with remote monitoring, and of the four studies examining healthcare costs with structured telephone support three reported reduced cost and one no effect. Conclusion: Programmes for chronic heart failure that include remote monitoring have a positive effect on clinical outcomes in community dwelling patients with chronic heart failure.

Analysis for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized network

This paper provides fundamental understanding for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks. Analytical modeling is performed to generate cumulative plots based on the availability of data: a) Case-D, for detector data only; b) Case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) Case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The empirical study and sensitivity analysis based on simulation experiments have observed the consistency in performance for Case-DS and Case-DSS, whereas, for Case-D the performance is inconsistent. Case-D is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Information interventions for orienting patients and their carers to cancer care facilities

Background: Cancer patients experience distress and anxiety related to their diagnosis, treatment and the unfamiliar cancer centre. Strategies with the aim of orienting patients to a cancer care facility may improve patient outcomes. Although meeting patients' information needs at different stages is important, there is little agreement about the type of information and the timing for information to be given. Orientation interventions aim to address information needs at the start of a person's experience with a cancer care facility. The extent of any benefit of these interventions is unknown. Objectives: To assess the effects of information interventions which orient patients and their carers/family to a cancer care facility, and to the services available in the facility. Search Methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 2); MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1966 to Jun 2011), EMBASE (Ovid SP) (1966 to Jun 2011), CINAHL (EBSCO) (1982 to Jun 2011), PsycINFO (OvidSP) (1966 to Jun 2011), review articles and reference lists of relevant articles. We contacted principal investigators and experts in the field. Selection Criteria: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster RCTs and quasi-RCTs evaluating the effects of information interventions that orient patients and their carers/family to a cancer care facility. Data collection and analysis: Results of searches were reviewed against the pre-determined criteria for inclusion by two review authors. The primary outcomes were knowledge and understanding; health status and wellbeing, evaluation of care, and harms. Secondary outcomes were communication, skills acquisition, behavioural outcomes, service delivery, and health professional outcomes. We pooled results of RCTs using mean differences (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main results: We included four RCTs involving 610 participants. All four trials aimed to investigate the effects of orientation programs for cancer patients to a cancer facility. There was high risk of bias across studies. Findings from two of the RCTs demonstrated significant benefits of the orientation intervention in relation to levels of distress (mean difference (MD) -8.96 (95% confidence interval (CI) -11.79 to -6.13), but non-significant benefits in relation to state anxiety levels (MD -9.77 (95% CI -24.96 to 5.41). Other outcomes for participants were generally positive (e.g. more knowledgeable about the cancer centre and cancer therapy, better coping abilities). No harms or adverse effects were measured or reported by any of the included studies. There were insufficient data on the other outcomes of interest. Authors conclusion: This review has demonstrated the feasibility and some potential benefits of orientation interventions. There was a low level of evidence suggesting that orientation interventions can reduce distress in patients. However, most of the other outcomes remain inconclusive (patient knowledge recall/ satisfaction). The majority of studies were subject to high risk of bias, and were likely to be insufficiently powered. Further well conducted and powered RCTs are required to provide evidence for determining the most appropriate intensity, nature, mode and resources for such interventions. Patient and carer-focused outcomes should be included.

Identification of early-stage colorectal cancer patients at risk of relapse post-resection by immunobead reverse transcription-PCR analysis of peritoneal lavage fluid for malignant cells

Purpose: Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed with stage I or II disease are not routinely offered adjuvant chemotherapy following resection of the primary tumor. However, up to 10% of stage I and 30% of stage II patients relapse within 5 years of surgery from recurrent or metastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine if tumor-associated markers could detect disseminated malignant cells and so identify a subgroup of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer that were at risk of relapse. Experimental Design: We recruited consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for early-stage colorectal cancer. Immunobead reverse transcription-PCR of five tumor-associated markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, laminin γ2, ephrin B4, matrilysin, and cytokeratin 20) was used to detect the presence of colon tumor cells in peripheral blood and within the peritoneal cavity of colon cancer patients perioperatively. Clinicopathologic variables were tested for their effect on survival outcomes in univariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to determine whether detection of tumor cells was an independent prognostic marker for disease relapse. Results: Overall, 41 of 125 (32.8%) early-stage patients were positive for disseminated tumor cells. Patients who were marker positive for disseminated cells in post-resection lavage samples showed a significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002), and this was independent of other risk factors. Conclusion: The markers used in this study identified a subgroup of early-stage patients at increased risk of relapse post-resection for primary colorectal cancer. This method may be considered as a new diagnostic tool to improve the staging and management of colorectal cancer. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.