Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

Planning for sustainable urban futures: an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities have shown increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change, and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning, human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner and ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, this chapter briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, it presents a conceptual framework for a new methodology for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach.

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Digital futures for cultural and media studies

An ambitious rendering of the digital future from a pioneer of media and cultural studies, a wise and witty take on a changing field, and our orientation to it Investigates the uses of multimedia by creative and productive citizen-consumers to provide new theories of communication that accommodate social media, participatory action, and user-creativity Leads the way for new interdisciplinary engagement with systems thinking, complexity and evolutionary sciences, and the convergence of cultural and economic values Analyzes the historical uses of multimedia from print, through broadcasting to the internet Combines conceptual innovation with historical erudition to present a high-level synthesis of ideas and detailed analysis of emergent forms and practices Features an international focus and global reach to provide a basis for students and researchers seeking broader perspectives

Comparing the availability, price, variety and quality of fruits and vegetables across retail outlets and by area level socioeconomic position

Abstract Objective: To explore whether area-level socioeconomic position or the form of retail stream (conventional versus farmers’ market) are associated with differences in the price, availability, variety and quality of a range of fresh fruit and vegetables. Design: A multi-site cross-sectional pilot study of farmers’ markets, supermarkets and independent fruit and vegetable retailers. Each was surveyed to assess the price, availability, variety and quality of 15 fruit and 18 vegetable items. Setting: Retail outlets were located in South-East Queensland. Subjects: Fifteen retail outlets were surveyed (five of each retail stream). Results: Average basket prices were not significantly different across the socioeconomic spectrum however prices in low socioeconomic areas were cheapest. Availability, variety, and quality did not differ across levels of socioeconomic position however the areas with the most socioeconomic disadvantage scored poorest for quality and variety. Supermarkets had significantly better fruit and vegetable availability than farmers’ markets however price, variety and quality scores were not different across retail streams. Results demonstrate a trend to fruit and vegetable prices being more expensive at farmers’ markets, with the price of the Fruit basket being significantly greater at the organic farmer’s market compared with the non-organic farmers’ markets. Conclusions: Neither area-level socioeconomic position nor the form of retail stream was significantly associated with differences in the availability, price, variety and quality of fruit and vegetables, except for availability which was higher in supermarkets than farmers’ markets. Further research is needed to determine what role farmers’ markets can play in affecting fruit and vegetable intake.

The high price of hesitation where time of the essence

The decision of Lai v Soineva [2011] QSC 247 in relation to the operation of standard conditions in the Queensland REIQ contract highlights a very practical issue often overlooked in the heat of a transaction .The point is relatively simple. In this instance ,the case concerned the interpretation of the printed "Building and Pest Inspection Clause" but is of relevance to the printed "Finance Clause" in the same contract as the wording and principles are identical. It highlights the issue of knowing well what is in the standard contract and not making assumptions. The case also highlights the cost to a party of dithering in making an election in a time of the essence environment

STEM futures and practice, can we teach STEM in a more meaningful and integrated way?

Integrating Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects can be engaging for students, can promote problem-solving and critical thinking skills and can help build real-world connections. However, STEM has long been an area of some confusion for some educators. While they can see many of the conceptual links between the various domains of knowledge they often struggle to meaningfully integrate and simultaneously teach the content and methodologies of each these areas in a unified and effective way for their students. Essentially the question is;how can the content and processes of four disparate and yet integrated learning areas be taught at the same time? How can the integrity of each of the areas be maintained and yet be learnt in a way that is complementary? Often institutional barriers exitin schools and universities to the integration of STEM. Organizationally, at a departmental and administrative level, the teaching staff may be co-located, but when it comes to classroom practice or the teaching and learning of these areas they are usually taught very separately. They are usually taught in different kinds of spaces, in different ways (using different pedagogical approaches) and at different times. But is this the best way for students to engage with the STEM areas of learning? How can we make learning more integrated, meaningful and engaging for the students?

Shanghai modern : replaying futures past

This article discusses different accounts of Shanghai Modern, the period between 1920s and 1940s in which the city occupied a unique position within China and the world. It places discussions of this period in the context of the resurgence of urban led modernization in China, led by Shanghai. It looks in particular at Leo Ou-Fan Lee’s attempt to link the cosmopolitanism of Shanghai modern with prospects for this new post-reform China. I then discuss Ackbas Abbas’ response to this book and use this as a way of reflecting on the progress of Shanghai urban development and its divergence/ convergence with similar processes in the West. The article then looks at the other significant moment of the Cultural Revolution as a way of opening up discussions of Chinese and Shanghainese modernity beyond that of simply an absorption into Western capitalist modernity. It concludes by briefly introducing this volume.

Towards equity in the futures market : curriculum as a condition of access

This article provides a consideration of the problem of equity in education. In the first part of the discussion, the author draws on philosophical and sociological literatures to consider what equity means and its implications for education. Drawing on work by Burbules, Lord & Sherman, she looks to curriculum as a condition of access and the importance of learning support structures in bringing about equitable educational outcomes, conceived in terms of Amy Gutmanns’s democratic threshold. The paper offers a conceptual-theoretical model for thinking about the resourcing and curricular requirements for equity in contemporary liberal democratic societies, contrasting the social and economic policy mixes employed by governments situated at different points along a liberty/equality continuum.

Wicked futures : metadesign, resilience and transformative classrooms

This paper presents an Australian case study entitled “Designing Futures”. It examines a six month multidisciplinary design program offered by a large co-educational, inner-city state school in Queensland in 2011. The program extended an already successful and innovative school-based design curriculum and involved students in Philosophy, Science, Mathematics and English classes, as well those in Art and Design. Additionally, there were 5 full-day workshops where students combined a wide range of skills to brainstorm, design and create sustainable solutions. The design thinking used in this program was based on the concepts of metadesign, design activism and design futuring. “Designing Futures” linked over 700 middle and secondary school students and staff with nine designers-in-residence from diverse disciplines, including bio-ethics. The program aimed to empower students from highly diverse cultural and social backgrounds to engage in authentic, participatory design processes, prepare them for future social and environmental challenges, and increase personal and community resilience. The research results will inform ongoing program development and research in K-12 design education, both within the school and in conjunction with university and community partnerships in Queensland.