Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Development of the benefit finding in multiple sclerosis (MS) caregiving scale: A longitudinal study of relations between benefit finding and adjustment

Benefit finding is a meaning making construct that has been shown to be related to adjustment in people with MS and their carers. This study investigated the dimensions, stability and potency of benefit finding in predicting adjustment over a 12 month interval using a newly developed Benefit Finding in Multiple Sclerosis Scale (BFiMSS). Usable data from 388 persons with MS and 232 carers was obtained from questionnaires completed at Time 1 and 12 months later (Time 2). Factor analysis of the BFiMSS revealed seven psychometrically sound factors: Compassion/Empathy, Spiritual Growth, Mindfulness, Family Relations Growth, Life Style Gains, Personal Growth, New Opportunities. BFiMSS total and factors showed satisfactory internal and retest reliability coefficients, and convergent, criterion and external validity. Results of regression analyses indicated that the Time 1 BFiMSS factors accounted for significant amounts of variance in each of the Time 2 adjustment outcomes (positive states of mind, positive affect, anxiety, depression) after controlling for Time 1 adjustment, and relevant demographic and illness variables. Findings delineate the dimensional structure of benefit finding in MS, the differential links between benefit finding dimensions and adjustment and the temporal unfolding of benefit finding in chronic illness.

A comparative study of manufacturing practices and performance variables

The reported study was conducted to compare and contrast current manufacturing practices between two countries, Australia and Malaysia, and identify the practices that significantly influence their manufacturing performances. The results are based on data collected from surveys using a standard questionnaire in both countries. Evidence indicates that product quality and reliability is the main competitive factor for manufacturers. Maintaining a supplier rating system and regularly updating it with field failure and warranty data and making use of product data management are found to be effective manufacturing practices. In terms of the investigated manufacturing performance, Australian manufacturers are marginally ahead of their Malaysian counterparts. However, Malaysian manufacturers came out ahead on most dimensions of advanced quality and manufacturing practices, particularly in the adoption of product data management, effective supply chains and relationships with suppliers and customers.

The roles and importance of formal and informal sources of business support in young firms : evidence from the UK’s 2008 Federation of Small Business Survey

Objectives This research explores the relationship between young firms, their growth orientation-intention and a range of relationships which can be seen to provide business support. Prior-work Research indicates that networks impact the firm’s ability to secure resources (Sirmon and Hitt 2003; Liao and Welsch. 2004; Hanlon and Saunders 2007). Networks have been evaluated in a number of ways ranging from simple counts to characteristics of their composition (Davidsson and Honig 2003), strength of relationships (Granovetter 1973) and network diversity (Carter et al 2003). By providing access to resources and knowledge (from start-up assistance and raising capital, (e.g. Smallbone et al, 2003), networks may assist in enabling continued persistence during those times where firms may experience resource constraints owing to firm growth (Baker and Nelson 2005). Approach The data used in this research was generated in the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) survey. Over 1,000 of the firms responding were found to fall into the category of “young”, ((defined as firms under 4 years old). Firms were considered the unit of analysis with the entrepreneur being the chief spokesperson for the firm. Preliminary data analysis considered key demographic characteristics and industry classifications, comparing the FSB data with that of the UK government’s own (BERR) Small Business Surveys of 2007 and 2008, to establish some degree of representativeness of the respondents. The analysis then examined networks with varying potential ability to provide support for young firms, the networks measured in terms of number, diversity, characteristic and strength in its relationship to young firm growth orientation. The diversity of business-support-related relationships ranged from friends and family, through professional services, customers and suppliers, and government business services, to trade associations and informal business networks. The characteristics of these formal and informal sources of support for new businesses are examined across a range of business support-type activities for new firms. The number of relationships and types of business support are also explored. Finally, the strength of these relationships is examined by analysis of the source of business support, type of business support, and links to the growth orientation-intention of the firm, after controlling for a number of key variables related to firm and industry status and owner characteristics. Results Preliminary analysis of the data by means of univariate analysis showed that average number of sources of advice was around 2.5 (from a potential total of 6). In terms of the diversity of relationships, universities had by far the smallest percentage of firms receiving beneficial advice from them. Government business services were beneficially used by 40% of young firms, the other relationship types being around the 50-55% mark. In terms of characteristics of the advice, the average number of areas in which benefit was achieved was around 5.5 of a maximum of 15. Start-up advice has by far the highest percentage of firms obtaining beneficial advice, with increasing sales, improving contacts and improving confidence being the other categories at or around the 50% mark. Other market-focused areas where benefits were also received were in the areas of new markets, existing product improvements and new product improvements, where around 40% of the young responding firms obtained benefit. Regression techniques evaluating the strength of these relationships in terms of the links between business support (by source of support, type of support, and range of support) and firm growth orientation-intention focus highlighted a number of significant relationships, even after controlling for a range of other explanatory variables identified in the literature. Specifically, there was found to be a positive relationship between receiving business advice generally (regardless of type or source) and growth orientation. This relationship was seen to be stronger, however, when looking at the number of types of beneficial advice received, and stronger again for the number of sources of this advice. In terms of individual sources of advice, customers and suppliers had the strongest relationship with growth, with Government business services also found to be significant. Combining these two sources was also seen to increase the strength of the relationship between these two sources of advice and growth orientation. In considering areas of support, growth was most strongly positively related to advice that benefited the development of new products and services, and also business confidence, but was negatively related to advice linked to business recovery. Finally, amalgamating the 4 key types and sources of advice to examine the impact of combinations of these types and sources of advice also improved the strength of the relationship. Implications The findings will assist in the understanding of young firms in general and growth more specifically, particularly the role and importance of specific sources, types and combinations of business support used more extensively by new young growth-oriented firms. Value This research may assist in processes designed to allow entrepreneurs to make better decisions; educators and support organizations to develop better advice and assistance, and Governments design better conditions for the creation of new growth-oriented businesses.

Generating rules with predicates, terms and variables from the pruned neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide range of applications. They are, however, not considered sufficient for knowledge representation because of their inability to represent the reasoning process succinctly. This paper proposes a novel methodology Gyan that represents the knowledge of a trained network in the form of restricted first-order predicate rules. The empirical results demonstrate that an equivalent symbolic interpretation in the form of rules with predicates, terms and variables can be derived describing the overall behaviour of the trained ANN with improved comprehensibility while maintaining the accuracy and fidelity of the propositional rules.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.

Examination of social demographic status, disease status, health behaviours and quality of life in older Australians using the theory of planned behaviour model

The increase of life expectancy worldwide during the last three decades has increased age-related disability leading to the risk of loss of quality of life. How to improve quality of life including physical health and mental health for older people and optimize their life potential has become an important health issue. This study used the Theory of Planned Behaviour Model to examine factors influencing health behaviours, and the relationship with quality of life. A cross-sectional mailed survey of 1300 Australians over 50 years was conducted at the beginning of 2009, with 730 completed questionnaires returned (response rate 63%). Preliminary analysis reveals that physiological changes of old age, especially increasing waist circumference and co morbidity was closely related to health status, especially worse physical health summary score. Physical activity was the least adherent behaviour among the respondents compared to eating healthy food and taking medication regularly as prescribed. Increasing number of older people living alone with co morbidity of disease may be the barriers that influence their attitude and self control toward physical activity. A multidisciplinary and integrated approach including hospital and non hospital care is required to provide appropriate services and facilities toward older people.

Concurrent and prospective associations between physical activity, walking and mental health in older women

Background Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) shows promise for reducing the risk of poor mental health in later life, although gender- and age-specific research is required to clarify this association. This study examined the concurrent and prospective relationships between both LTPA and walking with mental health in older women. Methods Community-dwelling women aged 73–78 years completed mailed surveys in 1999, 2002 and 2005 for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Respondents reported their weekly minutes of walking, moderate LTPA and vigorous LTPA. Mental health was defined as the number of depression and anxiety symptoms, as assessed with the Goldberg Anxiety and Depression Scale (GADS). Multivariable linear mixed models, adjusted for socio-demographic and health-related variables, were used to examine associations between five levels of LTPA (none, very low, low, intermediate and high) and GADS scores. For women who reported walking as their only LTPA, associations between walking and GADS scores were also examined. Women who reported depression or anxiety in 1999 were excluded, resulting in data from 6653 women being included in these analyses. Results Inverse dose–response associations were observed between both LTPA and walking with GADS scores in concurrent and prospective models (p<0.001). Even low levels of LTPA and walking were associated with lowered scores. The lowest scores were observed in women reporting high levels of LTPA or walking. Conclusion The results support an inverse dose–response association between both LTPA and walking with mental health, over 3 years in older women without depression or anxiety.

What factors are associated with cyclists getting injured? Correlates of cyclist injuries in Queensland

Pedal cyclists are over-represented in traffic crash injuries in Australia. This study examined correlates of cycling injuries in a sample of Queensland cyclists. Members of Bicycle Queensland (n=1976) were asked about cycling injuries as part of an online survey. They also reported demographic characteristics, reasons for cycling, years of cycling as an adult, and cycling frequency. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to examine the association between these variables and experiencing cycling injuries last year (yes/no). Thirty-one percent of respondents (n=617) reported at least one cycling injury. Respondents had greater likelihood of injury if they cycled more frequently, had cycled <5 years, or cycled for recreation or competition. These findings suggest that injuries are mostly likely to occur among less experienced cyclists, those cycling the most, and those cycling for sport and recreation. Injury prevention interventions should include cycle skills training along with fostering safer cycling environments.