A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Identifying relationships between symptom clusters and quality of life in adults with chronic mixed venous and arterial leg ulcers

The objective of this study was to identify symptom clusters and their effect on quality of life (QOL) of adults with chronic leg ulcers of mixed venous and arterial aetiology. A secondary analysis of data from four existing prospective longitudinal studies conducted by a wound healing research group in Australia was undertaken. A total of 110 patients who met the inclusion criteria were selected for this study. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to identify symptom clusters and correlational analyses to examine relationships between the identified symptom clusters and QOL. The EFA identified two distinct symptom clusters: a 'systemic symptom cluster' consisting of pain, fatigue and depressive symptoms; and a 'localised-leg symptom cluster' including pain, fatigue, oedema, lower limb inflammation and exudate. Physical QOL correlated significantly with the systemic symptom cluster (r = -0·055, P < 0·0001) and the localised-leg symptom cluster (r = -0·054, P < 0·0001), whereas mental QOL was associated only with the systemic symptom cluster (r = -0·038, P = 0·01). The results suggest that appropriate intervention strategies targeting specific symptom clusters should be developed. Targeting patients with symptom clusters is particularly important because they are at high risk and the most vulnerable for reduced QOL.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Patterned growth of nanoscale in clusters on the Si(111)-7×7 and Si(111)-Ge(5×5) reconstructions

Results of a study designed to investigate the possibility of using the Si(111)- Ge(5×5) surface reconstruction as a template for In cluster growth are described. As with Si(111)-7×7, the In adatoms preferentially adsorb in the faulted half-unit cell, but on Si(111)- Ge(5×5) a richer variety of cluster geometries are found. In addition to the clusters that occupy the faulted half-unit cell, clusters that span two and four half-unit cells are found. The latter have a triangular shape spanning one unfaulted and three, nearest neighbor, faulted half-unit cells, Triangular clusters in the opposite orientation were not found. Many of the faulted halfunit cells have a streaked appearance consistent with adatom mobility.

Indium clusters on the Ge (5× 5) wetting layer of Si (111)- 7× 7

The adsorption of In on the Si(111)−Ge(5×5) surface reconstruction has been studied with scanning tunneling microscopy and ab initio calculations to investigate the possibility of using this reconstruction as a template for cluster formation. As with In adsorption on Si(111)−7×7 at low substrate temperatures and low In fluences, the In adatoms are found to preferentially adsorb on the faulted half-unit cell. However, in contrast to In adsorption on Si(111)−7×7, the In adatoms are also frequently found in the unfaulted half-unit cell at low coverages. The filling of unfaulted unit cell halves is primarily due to the formation of large clusters that span multiple substrate half-unit cells. Moreover, many of the faulted half-unit cells have a streaked appearance that indicates that surface atoms within them are mobile.

Evaluation of a Multispectral Camera on a UAV for Agricultural Applications

Australian farmers have used precision agriculture technology for many years with the use of ground – based and satellite systems. However, these systems require the use of vehicles in order to analyse a wide area which can be time consuming and cost ineffective. Also, satellite imagery may not be accurate for analysis. Low cost of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) present an effective method of analysing large plots of agricultural fields. As the UAV can travel over long distances and fly over multiple plots, it allows for more data to be captured by a sampling device such as a multispectral camera and analysed thereafter. This would allow farmers to analyse the health of their crops and thus focus their efforts on certain areas which may need attention. This project evaluates a multispectral camera for use on a UAV for agricultural applications.

Structures of three different neutral polysaccharides of Acinetobacter baumannii, NIPH190, NIPH201, and NIPH615, assigned to K30, K45, and K48 capsule types, respectively, based on capsule biosynthesis gene clusters

Neutral capsular polysaccharides (CPSs) were isolated from Acinetobacter baumannii NIPH190, NIPH201, and NIPH615. The CPSs were found to contain common monosaccharides only and to be branched with a side-chain 1→3-linked β-d-glucopyranose residue. Structures of the oligosaccharide repeat units (K units) of the CPSs were elucidated by 1D and 2D 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy. Novel CPS biosynthesis gene clusters, designated KL30, KL45, and KL48, were found at the K locus in the genome sequences of NIPH190, NIPH201, and NIPH615, respectively. The genetic content of each gene cluster correlated with the structure of the CPS unit established, and therefore, the capsular types of the strains studied were designated as K30, K45, and K48, respectively. The initiating sugar of each K unit was predicted, and glycosyltransferases encoded by each gene cluster were assigned to the formation of the linkages between sugars in the corresponding K unit.

Evaluation of the Red Light Camera Program and the Owner Onus Legislation

Red light cameras were introduced in Victoria in August 1983, with the intention of reducing the number of accidents that result from motorists disobeying red traffic signals at signalised intersections. Accident data from 46 treated and 46 control sites from 1981 to 1986 were analysed. The analysis indicated that red light camera use resulted in a reduction in the incidence of right angle accidents, and in the number of accident casualties. Legislation was introduced in March 1986 to place the onus for red light camera offences onto the vehicle owner. This legislation was intended to improve Police efficiency and therefore increase the number of red light cameras in operation. Data supplied by the Police indicated that these aims have beneficial road safety effects.

Report on Red Light Camera Program: Operation from July 1988 to December 1989

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (excerpts) The red light camera (RLC) program commenced in July 1988, with five cameras operating at 15 sites in metropolitan Adelaide. This report deals with the first eighteen months of operation, to December 1989. A number of recommendations have been made… PROGRAM EVALUATION … In 1989 dollars, the program was estimated to have achieved an accident reduction benefit of $1.4m in the first 12 months of operation, which is almost twice the benefit expected using the assumptions made when selecting the sites. (There are 8 recommendations, mostly specific to the particular program characteristics)

The Red Light Camera Evaluation - Interim Report - July 1985

Red light cameras were introduced in August 1983 to deter run-the-red offences and therefore to reduce the incidence of right-angle accidents at signalised intersections in Melbourne. This report was prepared after two years of operation of the program. It provides a detailed account of the technical aspects of the program, but does not provide any detailed, evaluative analyses of accident data.

The influence of the elements of procedural justice and speed camera enforcement on young novice driver self-reported speeding

Road policing is an important tool used to modify road user behaviour. While other theories, such as deterrence theory, are significant in road policing, there may be a role for using procedural justice as a framework to improve outcomes in common police citizen interactions such as traffic law enforcement. This study, using a sample of 237 young novice drivers, considered how the four elements of procedural justice (voice, neutrality, respect and trustworthiness) were perceived in relation to two forms of speed enforcement: point-to-point (or average) speed and mobile speed cameras. Only neutrality was related to both speed camera types suggesting that it may be possible to influence behaviour by emphasising one or more elements, rather than using all components of procedural justice. This study is important as it indicates that including at least some elements of procedural justice in more automated policing encounters can encourage citizen compliance.