How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Characterisation of soluble components and PAH in PM10 atmospheric particulate matter in Brisbane

Fours sets of PM10 samples were collected in three sites in SEQ from December 2002 to August 2004. Three of these sets of samples were collected by QLD EPA as a part of their regular air monitoring program at Woolloongabba, Rocklea and Eagle Farm. Half of the samples were used in this study for the analysis of water-soluble ions, which are Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NH4 +, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and the other half was retained by QLD EPA. The fourth set of samples was collected at Rocklea, specifically for this study. A quarter of the samples obtained from this set of samples were used to analyse water-soluble ions; a quarter of the sample was used to analyse Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn; and the rests were used to analyse US EPA 16 priority PAHs. The water-soluble ions were extracted ultrasonically with water and the major watersoluble anions as well as NH4 + were analysed using IC. Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+ Pb, Cu, Al, Fe, Mn and Zn were analysed using ICP-AES while PAHs were extracted by acetonitrile and analysed using HPLC. Of the analysed water-soluble ions, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, Na+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ were high in concentration and determined in all the samples. F-, Br-, NO2 -, PO4 -3 and NH4 + ions were lower in concentration and determined only in some samples. Na+ and Cl- were high in all samples indicating the importance of a marine source. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to examine the temporal variations of the water-soluble ions at the three sites. The results indicated that there was no major difference between the three sites. However, comparing the average concentrations of ions and Cl-/Na+ it was concluded that Woolloongabba had more marine influence than the other sites. Al, Fe and Zn were detected in all samples. Al and Fe were high in all samples indicating the significance of a source of crustal matter. Cu, Mn and Pb were in low concentrations and were determined only in some samples. The lower Pb concentrations observed in the study than in previous studies indicate that the phasing-out of leaded petrol had an appreciable impact on Pb levels in SEQ. This study reports for the first time, simultaneous data on the water-soluble, metal ion and PAH levels of PM10 aerosols in Brisbane, and provides information on the most likely sources of these chemical species. Such information can be used alongside those that already exist to formulate PM10 pollution reduction strategies for SEQ in order to protect the community from the adverse effects of PM pollution.

Spatial analysis of notified cryptosporidiosis infections in Brisbane, Australia

Purpose: This study explored the spatial distribution of notified cryptosporidiosis cases and identified major socioeconomic factors associated with the transmission of cryptosporidiosis in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: We obtained the computerized data sets on the notified cryptosporidiosis cases and their key socioeconomic factors by statistical local area (SLA) in Brisbane for the period of 1996 to 2004 from the Queensland Department of Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. We used spatial empirical Bayes rates smoothing to estimate the spatial distribution of cryptosporidiosis cases. A spatial classification and regression tree (CART) model was developed to explore the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the incidence rates of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Spatial empirical Bayes analysis reveals that the cryptosporidiosis infections were primarily concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Brisbane. A spatial CART model shows that the relative risk for cryptosporidiosis transmission was 2.4 when the value of the social economic index for areas (SEIFA) was over 1028 and the proportion of residents with low educational attainment in an SLA exceeded 8.8%. Conclusions: There was remarkable variation in spatial distribution of cryptosporidiosis infections in Brisbane. Spatial pattern of cryptosporidiosis seems to be associated with SEIFA and the proportion of residents with low education attainment.

Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Development of a particle number and particle mass emissions inventory for an urban fleet : a study in South-East Queensland

Motor vehicles are a major source of gaseous and particulate matter pollution in urban areas, particularly of ultrafine sized particles (diameters < 0.1 µm). Exposure to particulate matter has been found to be associated with serious health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Particle emissions generated by motor vehicles span a very broad size range (from around 0.003-10 µm) and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, there exist scientific challenges in analysing and interpreting the large data sets on motor vehicle emission factors, and no understanding is available of the application of different particle metrics as a basis for air quality regulation. To date a comprehensive inventory covering the broad size range of particles emitted by motor vehicles, and which includes particle number, does not exist anywhere in the world. This thesis covers research related to four important and interrelated aspects pertaining to particulate matter generated by motor vehicle fleets. These include the derivation of suitable particle emission factors for use in transport modelling and health impact assessments; quantification of motor vehicle particle emission inventories; investigation of the particle characteristic modality within particle size distributions as a potential for developing air quality regulation; and review and synthesis of current knowledge on ultrafine particles as it relates to motor vehicles; and the application of these aspects to the quantification, control and management of motor vehicle particle emissions. In order to quantify emissions in terms of a comprehensive inventory, which covers the full size range of particles emitted by motor vehicle fleets, it was necessary to derive a suitable set of particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM1 (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters < 1 µm, < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm respectively). The very large data set of emission factors analysed in this study were sourced from measurement studies conducted in developed countries, and hence the derived set of emission factors are suitable for preparing inventories in other urban regions of the developed world. These emission factors are particularly useful for regions with a lack of measurement data to derive emission factors, or where experimental data are available but are of insufficient scope. The comprehensive particle emissions inventory presented in this thesis is the first published inventory of tailpipe particle emissions prepared for a motor vehicle fleet, and included the quantification of particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted by vehicles, based on measurement data. The inventory quantified particle emissions measured in terms of particle number and different particle mass size fractions. It was developed for the urban South-East Queensland fleet in Australia, and included testing the particle emission implications of future scenarios for different passenger and freight travel demand. The thesis also presents evidence of the usefulness of examining modality within particle size distributions as a basis for developing air quality regulations; and finds evidence to support the relevance of introducing a new PM1 mass ambient air quality standard for the majority of environments worldwide. The study found that a combination of PM1 and PM10 standards are likely to be a more discerning and suitable set of ambient air quality standards for controlling particles emitted from combustion and mechanically-generated sources, such as motor vehicles, than the current mass standards of PM2.5 and PM10. The study also reviewed and synthesized existing knowledge on ultrafine particles, with a specific focus on those originating from motor vehicles. It found that motor vehicles are significant contributors to both air pollution and ultrafine particles in urban areas, and that a standardized measurement procedure is not currently available for ultrafine particles. The review found discrepancies exist between outcomes of instrumentation used to measure ultrafine particles; that few data is available on ultrafine particle chemistry and composition, long term monitoring; characterization of their spatial and temporal distribution in urban areas; and that no inventories for particle number are available for motor vehicle fleets. This knowledge is critical for epidemiological studies and exposure-response assessment. Conclusions from this review included the recommendation that ultrafine particles in populated urban areas be considered a likely target for future air quality regulation based on particle number, due to their potential impacts on the environment. The research in this PhD thesis successfully integrated the elements needed to quantify and manage motor vehicle fleet emissions, and its novelty relates to the combining of expertise from two distinctly separate disciplines - from aerosol science and transport modelling. The new knowledge and concepts developed in this PhD research provide never before available data and methods which can be used to develop comprehensive, size-resolved inventories of motor vehicle particle emissions, and air quality regulations to control particle emissions to protect the health and well-being of current and future generations.

Rivalry within and between strategic networks : an investigation of the United States Automotive Industry

As a consequence of the increased incidence of collaborative arrangements between firms, the competitive environment characterising many industries has undergone profound change. It is suggested that rivalry is not necessarily enacted by individual firms according to the traditional mechanisms of direct confrontation in factor and product markets, but rather as collaborative orchestration between a number of participants or network members. Strategic networks are recognised as sets of firms within an industry that exhibit denser strategic linkages among themselves than other firms within the same industry. Based on this, strategic networks are determined according to evidence of strategic alliances between firms comprising the industry. As a result, a single strategic network represents a group of firms closely linked according to collaborative ties. Arguably, the collective outcome of these strategic relationships engineered between firms suggest that the collaborative benefits attributed to interorganisational relationships require closer examination in respect to their propensity to influence rivalry in intraindustry environments. Derived in large from the social sciences, network theory allows for the micro and macro examination of the opportunities and constraints inherent in the structure of relationships in strategic networks, establishing a relational approach upon which the conduct and performance of firms can be more fully understood. Research to date has yet to empirically investigate the relationship between strategic networks and rivalry. The limited research that has been completed utilising a network rationale to investigate competitive patterns in contemporary industry environments has been characterised by a failure to directly measure rivalry. Further, this prior research has typically embedded investigation in industry settings dominated by technological or regulatory imperatives, such as the microprocessor and airline industries. These industries, due to the presence of such imperatives, are arguably more inclined to support the realisation of network rivalry, through subscription to prescribed technological standards (eg., microprocessor industry) or by being bound by regulatory constraints dictating operation within particular market segments (airline industry). In order to counter these weaknesses, the proposition guiding research - Are patterns of rivalry predicted by strategic network membership? – is embedded in the United States Light Vehicles Industry, an industry not dominated by technological or regulatory imperatives. Further, rivalry is directly measured and utilised in research, thus distinguishing this investigation from prior research efforts. The timeframe of investigation is 1993 – 1999, with all research data derived from secondary sources. Strategic networks were defined within the United States Light Vehicles Industry based on evidence of horizontal strategic relationships between firms comprising the industry. The measure of rivalry used to directly ascertain the competitive patterns of industry participants was derived from the traditional Herfindahl Index, modified to account for patterns of rivalry observed at the market segment level. Statistical analyses of the strategic network and rivalry constructs found little evidence to support the contention of network rivalry; indeed, greater levels of rivalry were observed between firms comprising the same strategic network than between firms participating in opposing network structures. Based on these results, patterns of rivalry evidenced in the United States Light Vehicle Industry over the period 1993 – 1999 were not found to be predicted by strategic network membership. The findings generated by this research are in contrast to current theorising in the strategic network – rivalry realm. In this respect, these findings are surprising. The relevance of industry type, in conjunction with prevailing network methodology, provides the basis upon which these findings are contemplated. Overall, this study raises some important questions in relation to the relevancy of the network rivalry rationale, establishing a fruitful avenue for further research.

Recruiting local public relations professionals for global relations practice : a comparative analysis between Australian and Indian public relations recruitment advertisements

The aim of this exploratory study was to gain an insight into Asian and Western public relations practices by investigating them through job advertisements and thus reflecting on what organisations expect from the public relations professionals. Grunig's (1984) four models of public relations and the concept of relationships management were used as the foundation for this study. Australia was used to represent the Western region and India was used to represent the Asian region. Sample sets of public relations recruitment advertisements from both countries were examined against Grunig's one-way communication, two-way communication and relationship management attributes.

A multiple-control fuzzy vault

We introduce multiple-control fuzzy vaults allowing generalised threshold, compartmented and multilevel access structure. The presented schemes enable many useful applications employing multiple users and/or multiple locking sets. Introducing the original single control fuzzy vault of Juels and Sudan we identify several similarities and differences between their vault and secret sharing schemes which influence how best to obtain working generalisations. We design multiple-control fuzzy vaults suggesting applications using biometric credentials as locking and unlocking values. Furthermore we assess the security of our obtained generalisations for insider/ outsider attacks and examine the access-complexity for legitimate vault owners.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Rover autonomous integrity monitoring of GNSS RTK positioning solutions with multi-constellations

This paper studies receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) algorithms and performance benefits of RTK solutions with multiple-constellations. The proposed method is generally known as Multi-constellation RAIM -McRAIM. The McRAIM algorithms take advantage of the ambiguity invariant character to assist fast identification of multiple satellite faults in the context of multiple constellations, and then detect faulty satellites in the follow-up ambiguity search and position estimation processes. The concept of Virtual Galileo Constellation (VGC) is used to generate useful data sets of dual-constellations for performance analysis. Experimental results from a 24-h data set demonstrate that with GPS&VGC constellations, McRAIM can significantly enhance the detection and exclusion probabilities of two simultaneous faulty satellites in RTK solutions.

Distracted : poetic interpretations of climate change

This paper introduces the creative work Distracted and discusses conceptual, aesthetic and technical aspects of the work. The work was conceived as a luminous, interactive, computational media installation informed by our interest in the Antarctica. Through the paper we focus on: how the work addresses the themes of climate change and sustainability; how we attempted to work with selected sets of scientific data to evoke the delicate yet extreme nature of the environment and the ways in which ice is a record of the earth’s geological history and recent human impacts; and how the process of making this artwork caused us to reconsider our practices and formulate strategies for redirecting our practice in a manner that addresses the challenges of sustainability.

Survey research

This book aims to provide an overview of approaches to assist researchers and practitioners to explore ways of undertaking research in the information literacy field. The first chapter provides an introductory overview of research by Dr Kirsty Williamson (author of Research Methods for Students, Academics and Professionals: Information Management and Systems) and this sets the scene for the rest of the chapters where each author explores the key aspects of a specific method and explains how it may be applied in practice. The methods covered include those representing qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods. Both a chapter on the topical evidence-based practice approach, and another critiquing it, are also included. The final chapter points the way towards potential new directions for the burgeoning field

Governance and negotiation : context revisited

Context is acknowledged as a significant feature of a negotiation. Background information about the relationship between the parties, available resources and organisational data are readily identifiable as key components of the contextual make-up of negotiations. However, information deriving from the broader setting of the negotiation may be less well-utilised or simply taken-for-granted in a negotiation. This paper suggests that this broader setting, discussed under the rubric of governance, is a critical facet of the context of negotiations. The paper explores the notion of governance and traces its relationship with negotiation. It then offers a framework that sets out the different governance approaches and allows for identifying and assessing potential negotiation strategies according to the dominant governance mode. It concludes that while a mix of governance approaches may be present in negotiations, identifying ‘ideal types’ or dominant governance modes assists in choosing appropriate strategies for successfully undertaking negotiations.

Questions of English : ethics, aesthetics, rhetoric, and the formation of the subject in England, Australia and the United States

The impact and content of English as a subject on the curriculum is once more the subject of lively debate. Questions of English sets out to map the development of English as a subject and how it has come to encompass the diversity of ideas that currently characterise it. Drawing on a combination of historical analysis and recent research findings Robin Peel, Annette Patterson and Jeanne Gerlach bring together and compare important new insights on curriculum development and teaching practice from England, Australia and the United States. They also discuss the development of teacher training, highlighting the variety of ways in which teachers build their own beliefs and knowledge about English.

Young children's early modelling with data

An educational priority of many nations is to enhance mathematical learning in early childhood. One area in need of special attention is that of statistics. This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the beginning school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modelling activities. Such modelling involves investigations of meaningful phenomena, deciding what is worthy of attention (i.e., identifying complex attributes), and then progressing to organising, structuring, visualising, and representing data. Results are reported from the first year of a three-year longitudinal study in which three classes of first-grade children and their teachers engaged in activities that required the creation of data models. The theme of “Looking after our Environment,” a component of the children’s science curriculum at the time, provided the context for the activities. Findings focus on how the children dealt with given complex attributes and how they generated their own attributes in classifying broad data sets, and the nature of the models the children created in organising, structuring, and representing their data.