A method for risk analysis across governance systems : a great barrier reef case study

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering sound environmental management outcomes from global to local scales. There are, however, surprisingly few risk assessment methods that can pinpoint those domains and sub-domains within governance systems that are most likely to influence good environmental outcomes at any particular scale, or those if absent or dysfunctional, most likely to prevent effective environmental management. This paper proposes a new risk assessment method for analysing governance systems. This method is then tested through its preliminary application to a significant real-world context: governance as it relates to the health of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The GBR exists at a supra-regional scale along most of the north eastern coast of Australia. Brodie et al (2012 Mar. Pollut. Bull. 65 81-100) have recently reviewed the state and trend of the health of the GBR, finding that overall trends remain of significant concern. At the same time, official international concern over the governance of the reef has recently been signalled globally by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). These environmental and political contexts make the GBR an ideal candidate for use in testing and reviewing the application of improved tools for governance risk assessment. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Herpes simplex 2 risk among women in a polygynous setting in rural West Africa

OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for herpes simplex 2 (HSV2) infection in women in a polygynous rural Gambian population. METHODS: Data from women who participated in a cross-sectional survey of reproductive health were matched to their own and, for women who had been or were married (ever-married), their spouses' data collected in a cross-sectional survey of fertility interests, including information on marital histories. RESULTS: Data were available on 150 never-married and 525 ever-married women. HSV2 prevalence was 16% amongst never-married women and 36% amongst ever-married women. For ever-married women, their own personal characteristics (age, ethnicity and genital cutting status) and events from their husbands' marriage history were important determinants of HSV2 infection. Women whose husbands married for the first time over age 35 were at greater risk than women whose husbands married by age 24 [odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-6.10]. Women whose husband reported interest in a new marriage were more likely to be HSV2 positive (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.18-3.09). Women whose husbands were currently monogamous but had had previous marriages (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.88) and women in currently polygynous marriages (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.66-5.01) were three times as likely to be HSV2 positive as women who were their husband's only wife ever. CONCLUSION: Much transmission of HSV2 in this setting occurs within marriage where opportunity for personal protection is limited. High levels of transmission within marriage may undermine the impact of sexual behaviour change programmes aiming to reduce HSV2 and HIV incidence and complicate their evaluation.

Re-evaluation of the effect of smoking on the methylation of N-terminal valine in haemoglobin

In view of the established extrapulmonary cancer sites targeted by smoking a multiplicity of compounds, and mechanisms might be involved. It has been debated that smoking caused increased incidence of N-methylvaline at the N-terminus of haemoglobin. Because this could indicate a relevance of methylating nitrosamines in tobacco smoke, data are presented from an industrial cohort of 35 smokers and 21 non-smokers repeatedly monitored between 1994 and 1999. In general, N-methylvaline adduct levels in haemoglobin of smokers were approximately 50% higher than those of non-smokers. The smoking-induced methylation of haemoglobin is likely to be caused by dimethylnitrosamine (N-nitroso-dimethylamine), a major nitrosamine in side-stream tobacco smoke. The biomonitoring data emphasise the potential value of N-methylvaline as a smoking-related biomarker and call for intensified research on tobacco smoke compounds that lead to macromolecular methylation process.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

Gliptins - do they increase cardiovascular risk or benefit?

INTRODUCTION: In 2008, the US FDA required all new glucose-lowering therapies to show cardiovascular safety, and this applies to the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors ('gliptins'). AREAS COVERED: The cardiovascular safety trials of saxagliptin and alogliptin have recently been published and are the subject of this evaluation. EXPERT OPINION: The Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus - Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 trial and Examination of Cardiovascular Outcomes with Alogliptin versus Standard of Care were both multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, Phase IV clinical trials. These trials showed that saxagliptin and alogliptin did not increase the primary end point, which was a composite of cardiovascular outcomes that did not include hospitalisations for heart failure. However, saxagliptin significantly increased hospitalisation for heart failure, which was a component of the secondary end point. The effect of alogliptin on hospitalisations for heart failure has not been reported. Neither agent improved cardiovascular outcomes. As there is no published evidence of improved outcomes with gliptins, it is unclear to us why these agents are so widely available for use. We suggest that the use of gliptins be restricted to Phase IV clinical trials until such time as cardiovascular safety and benefits/superiority are clearly established

The unequal distribution of road trauma in China : understanding risk factors to improve public health

The World Health Organization identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in every country; most notably among low-to-middle income countries. More than 90% of all road fatalities occur in these countries, although they have only 48% of all registered vehicles [1]. Unprecedented focus has been placed on reducing the global road trauma burden through the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020). China is rapidly transitioning from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership and use is increasing. This transition presents important public health, mobility, and safety challenges. Rapid motorisation has resulted in an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (bicyclists, pedestrians, and motorcyclists) are of particular concern, representing 70% of all road-related fatalities [1]. Furthermore, those at greatest risk of sustaining a crash-related disability are: male, older, less educated, and earning a lower income [2] and residing in urban areas [3], with higher fatality rates in north-western poorer provinces [3]. Speeding is a key factor in road crashes in China [1, 4] and is one of two risk factors targeted in the Bloomberg Philanthropies-funded Global Road Safety Program operating in two Chinese cities over five year [5] to which the first author has provided expert advice. However, little evidence exists to help understand the factors underpinning speeding behaviour. Previous research conducted by the authors in Beijing and Hangzhou explored personal, social, and legal factors relating to speeding to assist in better understanding the motivations for non-compliance with speed limits. Qualitative and quantitative research findings indicated that speeding is relatively common, including self-reported travel speeds of greater than 30 km/hour above posted speed limits [6], and that the road safety laws and enforcement practices may, in some circumstances, contribute to this [7]. Normative factors were also evident; the role of friends, family members and driving instructors were influential. Additionally, using social networks to attempt to avoid detection and penalty was reported, thereby potentially reinforcing community perceptions that speeding is acceptable [8, 9]. The authors established strong collaborative links with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Zhejiang Police College to conduct this research. The first author has worked in both institutions for extended time periods and recognises that research must include an understanding of culturally-relevant issues if road safety is to improve in China. Future collaborations to assist in enhancing our understanding of such issues are welcomed. References [1] World Health Organization. (2009). Global status report on road safety: Time for action; Geneva. [2] Chen, H., Du, W., & Li, N. (2013). The socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related disability among Chinese adults: the application of concentration index. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 55(101-106). [3] Wang, S. Y., Li, Y. H., Chi, G. B., Xiao, S. Y., Ozanne-Smith, J., Stevenson, M., & Phillips, M. (2008). Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. The Lancet (British edition), 372(9651), 1765-1773. [4] He, J., King, M. J., Watson, B., Rakotonirainy, A., & Fleiter, J. J. (2013). Speed enforcement in China: National, provincial and city initiatives and their success. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 50, 282-288. [5] Bhalla, K., Li, Q., Duan, L., Wang, Y., Bishai, D., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). The prevalence of speeding and drink driving in two cities in China: a mid project evaluation of ongoing road safety interventions. Injury, 44, 49-56. doi:10.1016/S0020-1383(13)70213-4. [6] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., & Lennon, A. (2013). Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers. Peer-reviewed paper presented at 23rd Canadian Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference, Montréal, Québec. [7] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2009). Speeding in Australia and China: A comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers. Peer-reviewd paper presented at Australasian Road Safety Research Policing Education Conference, Sydney. [8] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Lennon, A., King, M. J., & Shi, K. (2011). Social influences on drivers in China. Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, 22(2), 29-36. [9] Fleiter, J. J., Watson, B., Guan, M. Q., Ding, J. Y., & Xu, C. (2013). Characteristics of Chinese Drivers Attending a Mandatory Training Course Following Licence Suspension. Peer-reviewed paper presented at Road Safety on Four Continents, Beijing, China.

Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Reframe QUT's evaluation framework : a case study of planning, policy and positioning leading to educational best practice

Every university in Australia has a set of policies that guide the institution in its educational practices, however, the policies are often developed in isolation to each other. Now imagine a space where policies are evidence-based, refined annually, cohesively interrelated, and meet stakeholders’ needs. Is this happenstance or the result of good planning? Culturally, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) is a risk-averse institution that takes pride in its financial solvency and is always keen to know “how are we going?” With a twenty-year history of annual reporting that assures the quality of course performance through multiple lines of evidence, QUT’s Learning and Teaching Unit went one step further and strategically aligned a suite of policies that take into consideration the needs of their stakeholders, collaborate with other areas across the institution and use multiple lines of evidence to inform curriculum decision-making. In QUT’s experience, strategic planning can lead to policy that is designed to meet stakeholders’ needs, not manage them; where decision-making is supported by evidence, not rhetoric; where all feedback is incorporated, not ignored; and where policies are cohesively interrelated, not isolated. While many may call this ‘policy nirvana’, QUT has positioned itself to demonstrate good educational practice through Reframe, its evaluation framework. In this case, best practice was achieved through the application of a theory of change and a design-led logic model that allows for transition to other institutions with different cultural specificity. The evaluation approach follows Seldin’s (2003) notion to offer depth and breadth to the evaluation framework along with Berk’s (2005) concept of multiple lines of evidence. In summary, this paper offers university executives, academics, planning and quality staff an opportunity to understand the critical steps that lead to strategic planning and design of evidence-based educational policy that positions a university for best practice in learning and teaching.

A stakeholder process evaluation of a social marketing walking intervention targeting children

One quarter of Australian children are overweight or obese (ABS, 2010), putting them at increased risk of physical and psychological health problems (Reilly et al., 2003). Overweight and obesity in childhood tends to persist into adulthood and is associated with premature death and morbidity (Reilly & Kelly, 2011). Increases in Australian children’s weight have coincided with declines in active transportation, such as walking, to school (Salmon et al., 2005). To address this problem, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth), which is an independent statutory authority which advises government and contributes to promoting good health in Victoria (VicHealth, 2014), developed the Walk to School program. Walk to School aims to encourage primary school children in Victoria to walk to and from school more often. Walking to school is a low cost and effective means of reducing excess weight (Rosenberg et al., 2006) that can be easily integrated into daily routine (Brophy et al., 2011). The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the stakeholder process evaluation of Walk to School 2013, which forms part of a broader outcome evaluation that is currently in field. Although there is an emphasis on outcome evaluation of programs, process evaluation can be equally important in determining program success (Saunders et al., 2005). Further, process evaluation to assess program delivery and utilization is explicitly recommended by two social marketing frameworks (see Lefebvre et al., 1988; Walsh et al., 1993).

Evaluation of the performance of a dengue outbreak detection tool for China

An outbreak detection and response system, using time series moving percentile method based on historical data, in China has been used for identifying dengue fever outbreaks since 2008. For dengue fever outbreaks reported from 2009 to 2012, this system achieved a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 99.8% and a median time to detection of 3 days, which indicated that the system was a useful decision tool for dengue fever control and risk-management programs in China.

The Lymphedema Evaluation in Gynecological cancer Study (LEGS): Design of a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

Background The Lymphoedema Evaluation in Gynecological cancer Study (LEGS) was a longitudinal, observational, cohort study prospectively evaluating the incidence and risk factors of lower-limb lymphedema after treatment for gynecological cancer. Here we describe the study protocol and characteristics of the sample. Methods Women with a newly diagnosed gynecological cancer between June 1, 2008 and February 28, 2011, aged 18 years or older, and treated at one of six hospitals in Queensland, Australia, were eligible. Lymphedema was assessed by circumference measurements, bioimpedance spectroscopy, and self-reported swelling. LEGS incorporated a cohort of patients requiring surgery for benign gynecological conditions for comparison purposes. Data were collected prior to surgery and at regular intervals thereafter up to 2-years post-diagnosis. Results 546 women participated (408 cancer, 138 benign), with a 24-month retention rate of 78%. Clinical and treatment characteristics of participants were similar to the Queensland gynecological cancer population, except for a higher proportion of early-stage cervical cancers recruited to LEGS compared with Queensland proportions (89% versus 55%, respectively). Discussion Few imbalances were observed between participants with complete and incomplete follow-up data. The prospective design and collection of objective and patient-reported outcome data will allow comprehensive assessment of incidence and risk factors of lower-limb lymphedema.

Where to after Drink Rite: An evaluation of opportunities for police and community promotion of an anti-drink driving message in the licensed venue setting. Report to the National Drug Strategy Law Enforcement Funding Committee

Estimating the prevalence of drink driving is a difficult task. Self‐reported drink driving indicates that drink driving is far more common than official statistics suggest. In order to promote a responsible attitude towards alcohol consumption and drink driving within the Queensland community, the Queensland Police Service, Queensland Health and Queensland Transport developed the ‘Drink Rite’ program (Queensland Police Service information sheet, 2009). However, the feasibility of the program is now in doubt as the National Health and Medical Research Council’s guidelines for alcohol consumption changed in 2009 to state “For healthy men and women, drinking no more than four standard drinks on a single occasion reduces the risk of alcohol‐related injury arising from that occasion” (NHMRC Publication, 2009, p. 51). As such, adhering to the NHMRC guidelines places restrictions on how the existing Drink Rite program can be operated (i.e. by reducing the number of standard drinks provided to participants from eight to four). It is arguable that a reduction in the number of alcoholic drinks provided to participants in the program will result in a large reduction in observed BAC readings. This, in turn, will lead to a potential loss of message content when discussing the variation in the effects of alcohol.

Pituitary volume predicts future transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk of developing psychosis

Background We examined pituitary volume before the onset of psychosis in subjects who were at ultra-high risk (UHR) for developing psychosis. Methods Pituitary volume was measured on 1.5-mm, coronal, 1.5-T magnetic resonance images in 94 UHR subjects recruited from admissions to the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation Clinic in Melbourne, Australia and in 49 healthy control subjects. The UHR subjects were scanned at baseline and were followed clinically for a minimum of 1 year to detect transition to psychosis. Results Within the UHR group, a larger baseline pituitary volume was a significant predictor of future transition to psychosis. The UHR subjects who later went on to develop psychosis (UHR-P, n = 31) had a significantly larger (+12%; p = .001) baseline pituitary volume compared with UHR subjects who did not go on to develop psychosis (UHR-NP, n = 63). The survival analysis conducted by Cox regression showed that the risk of developing psychosis during the follow-up increased by 20% for every 10% increase in baseline pituitary volume (p = .002). Baseline pituitary volume of the UHR-NP subjects was smaller not only compared with UHR-P (as described above) but also compared with control subjects (−6%; p = .032). Conclusions The phase before the onset of psychosis is associated with a larger pituitary volume, suggesting activation of the HPA axis.

Evaluation of protein bait laced with various insecticides on the Queensland fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae): Attraction, feeding, mortality and bait persistence

The use of malathion in fruit fly protein bait sprays has raised serious concerns due to its adverse effects on non-target organisms. This has necessitated the evaluation of novel reduced-risk compounds. This study evaluated the effects of spinosad, fipronil, malathion and chlorpyrifos mixed with fruit fly protein bait (Mauri Pinnacle protein®) on attraction, feeding and mortality of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt). The effects of outdoor weathering of these mixtures on fly mortality were also determined. In field-cage experiment, protein-starved flies showed the same level of attraction to baits containing spinosad, fipronil, malathion, chlorpyrifos and protein alone used as control. Female protein-starved flies were deterred from feeding on baits containing malathion and chlorpyrifos compared to baits containing spinosad, fipronil and protein alone. Baits containing malathion and chlorpyrifos caused higher fly mortality and rapid fly knock down than spinosad and fipronil. However, spinosad acted slowly and caused an increase in fly mortality over time, causing up to 90% fly mortality after 72-h. Baits containing malathion and chlorpyrifos, applied on citrus leaves and weathered outdoors, had longer residual effectiveness in killing flies than spinosad and fipronil. Residual effectiveness of the spinosad bait mixture waned significantly after 3 days of outdoor weathering. Results suggest that spinosad and fipronil can be potential alternatives for malathion in protein bait sprays.