129 resultados para Organizational forecasting


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The purpose of Business Process Management (BPM) is to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of organizational processes through improvement and innovation. Despite a common understanding that culture is an important element in these efforts, there is a dearth of theoretical and empirical research on culture as a facilitator of successful BPM. We develop the BPM culture construct and propose a validated instrument with which to measure organizational cultures’ support of BPM. The operationalization of the BPM culture concept provides a theoretical foundation for future research and a tool to assist organizations in developing a cultural environment that supports successful BPM.

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For the past two decades the concept of managing individual difference in the workforce has been popular in many Western organizations, with calls to manage this "diversity" for the greater good of the organization and the\ individuals in it. Paradoxically, there is no agreed definition for this concept, and its description remains unclear and often contested (Jensen, Maznevski & Schneider 2011). Indeed, a range of terms is used, including diversity: diversity at work, managing diversity, diversity management, workplace diversity, productive diversity, and so forth. The foundation of the concept of managing diversity is the idea that an organization's workforce displays a range of “diverse” characteristics. The characteristics that are included under the heading Of "diversity" vary.

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The purpose of this study is to elaborate shared schema change theory in the context of the radical restructuring-commercialization of an Australian public infrastructure organization. Commercialization of the case organization imposed high individual and collective cognitive processing and emotional demands as organizational members sought to develop new shared schema. Existing schema change research suggests that radical restructuring renders pre-existing shared schema irrelevant and triggers new schema development through experiential learning (Balogun and Johnson, 2004). Focus groups and semi-structured interviews were conducted at four points over a three-year period. The analysis revealed that shared schema change occurred in three broad phases: (1) radical restructuring and aftermath; (2) new CEO and new change process schema, and: (3) large-group meeting and schema change. Key findings include: (1) radical structural change does not necessarily trigger new shared schema development as indicated in prior research; (2) leadership matters, particularly in framing new means-ends schema; (3) how change leader interventions are sequenced has an important influence on shared schema change, and; (4) the creation of facilitated social processes have an important influence on shared schema change.

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The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

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Purpose - Contemporary offshore Information System Development (ISD) outsourcing is becoming even more complex. Outsourcing partner has begun ‘re-outsourcing’ components of their projects to other outsourcing companies to minimize cost and gain efficiencies. This paper aims to explore intra-organizational Information Asymmetry of re-outsourced offshore ISD outsourcing projects. Design/methodology/approach - An online survey was conducted to get an overall view of Information Asymmetry between Principal and Agents (as per the Agency theory). Findings - Statistical analysis showed that there are significant differences between the Principal and Agent on clarity of requirements, common domain knowledge and communication effectiveness constructs, implying an unbalanced relationship between the parties. Moreover, our results showed that these three are significant measurement constructs of Information Asymmetry. Research limitations/implications - In our study we have only considered three main factors as common domain knowledge, clarity of requirements and communication effectiveness as three measurement constructs of Information Asymmetry. Therefore, researches are encouraged to test the proposed constructs further to increase its precision. Practical implications - Our analysis indicates significant differences in all three measurement constructs, implying the difficulties to ensure that the Agent is performing according to the requirements of the Principal. Using the Agency theory as theoretical view, this study sheds light on the best contract governing methods which minimize Information Asymmetry between the multiple partners within ISD outsourcing organizations. Originality/value - Currently, to the best of our knowledge, no study has undertaken research on Intra-organizational Information Asymmetry in re-outsourced offshore ISD outsourcing projects.

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The literature concerning firm boundaries has focussed extensively on the rationale for different boundary choices and the economic efficiencies that such choices can make. There is also an acknowledged position that a firm’s boundary choices may impact the ability of a firm to maintain and even build new capabilities, though such choices may not be optimal from an economic efficiency perspective. It is in this context that we seek to investigate how firms make this potential trade-off in respect of their boundary choices and how these choices are implemented across a wide range of activities. Using qualitative data from three public sector construction oriented organizations, we observe that neither pure make nor buy decisions assisted significantly in capability building. Dual modes – where firms make and buy the same product or service simultaneously – provided firms with some opportunities to manage this paradox, but the most successful decisions seemed to occur in respect of using intermediate governance modes such as alliances. We also observed that the boundary choice was just one dimension of the capability building process and firms pursuing the same boundary choice decisions often had quite divergent outcomes on the basis of their boundary management and the ability of knowledge to move across firm boundaries.

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Organizational transformations reliant on successful ICT system developments (continue to) fail to deliver projected benefits even when contemporary governance models are applied rigorously. Modifications to traditional program, project and systems development management methods have produced little material improvement to successful transformation as they are unable to routinely address the complexity and uncertainty of dynamic alignment of IS investments and innovation. Complexity theory provides insight into why this phenomenon occurs and is used to develop a conceptualization of complexity in IS-driven organizational transformations. This research-in-progress aims to identify complexity formulations relevant to organizational transformation. Political/power based influences, interrelated business rules, socio-technical innovation, impacts on stakeholders and emergent behaviors are commonly considered as characterizing complexity while the proposed conceptualization accommodates these as connectivity, irreducibility, entropy and/or information gain in hierarchically approximation and scaling, number of states in a finite automata and/or dimension of attractor, and information and/or variety.

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BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

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To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

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Many activities, from disaster response to project management, require cooperation among people from multiple organizations who initially lack interpersonal relationships and trust. Upon entering inter-organizational settings, pre-existing identities and expectations, along with emergent social roles and structures, may all influence trust between colleagues. To sort out these effects, we collected time-lagged data from three cohorts of military MBA students, representing 2,224 directed dyads, shortly after they entered graduate school. Dyads that shared organizational identity, boundary-spanning roles, and similar network positions (structural equivalence) were likely to have stronger professional ties and greater trust.

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Playfulness, with non-intrusive elements, can be considered a useful resource for enhancing social awareness and community building within work organizations. Taking inspirations from the cultural probes approach, we developed organizational probes as a set of investigation tools that could provide useful information about employees’ everyday playful experiences within their work organizations. In an academic work environment, we applied our organizational probes over a period of three weeks. Based on the collected data we developed two design concepts for playful technologies in work environments.

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This research used a multiple-case study approach to empirically investigate the complex relationship between factors influencing inter-project knowledge sharing—trustworthiness, organizational culture, and knowledge-sharing mechanisms. Adopting a competing values framework, we found evidence of patterns existing between the type of culture, on the project management unit level, and project managers’ perceptions of valuing trustworthy behaviors and the way they share knowledge, on the individual level. We also found evidence for mutually reinforcing the effect of trust and clan culture, which shape tacit knowledge-sharing behaviors.

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Despite decades of attempts to embed sustainability within higher education, literature clearly suggests that highly regulated disciplines such as engineering have been relatively slow to incorporate sustainability knowledge and skill areas, and are generally poorly prepared to do so. With current efforts, it is plausible that sustainability could take another two decades to be embedded within the curriculum. Within this context, this paper presents a whole system approach to implement systematic, intentional and timely curriculum renewal that is responsive to emerging challenges and opportunities, encompassing curriculum and organizational change. The paper begins by considering the evolution of curriculum renewal processes, documenting a number of whole system considerations that have been empirically distilled from literature, case studies, pilot trials, and a series of workshops with built environment educators from around the world over the last decade. The paper outlines a whole-of-institution curriculum renewal approach to embedding sustainability knowledge and skills within the DNA of the institutional offerings. The paper concludes with a discussion of research and practice implications for the field of education research, within and beyond higher education.

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Organizations invest in ways to stimulate new ideas for new products and services for the benefit of the organization, engaging in tournaments and competitions to generate new ideas or to combine existing ideas in new ways for new products and services (Terweisch and Uhlrich, 2009). Specifically, some large companies have developed platforms for posting intractable problems to tap into the ideas and problem solving abilities of a broader range of people (Huston and Sakkab, 2006; Morgan and Wang, 2010), and to develop new and elegant solutions often in an open innovation approach (Chesbrough, 2003). The notion of ingenuity is often applied to individuals who create innovative solutions in situations of constraint, where ingenuity in the form of elegant solutions can be understood as one form of resourcefulness (Young, 2011). However, the notion of organizational ingenuity locates ingenuity more centrally to an organization's strategic decision making and implementation, embedding ingenuity into the company's culture. Studies of organizations displaying ingenuity indicate a range of possibilities from extreme ingenuity (Baker and Nelson, 2005) to less dramatic but substantial changes (Thomke, 2003), sometimes in an experimental phase or as part of a move towards a new and distinct identity for ongoing innovation.

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Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.