A Stochastic View of Optimal Regret through Minimax Duality

We study the regret of optimal strategies for online convex optimization games. Using von Neumann's minimax theorem, we show that the optimal regret in this adversarial setting is closely related to the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm in a stochastic process setting: it is equal to the maximum, over joint distributions of the adversary's action sequence, of the difference between a sum of minimal expected losses and the minimal empirical loss. We show that the optimal regret has a natural geometric interpretation, since it can be viewed as the gap in Jensen's inequality for a concave functional--the minimizer over the player's actions of expected loss--defined on a set of probability distributions. We use this expression to obtain upper and lower bounds on the regret of an optimal strategy for a variety of online learning problems. Our method provides upper bounds without the need to construct a learning algorithm; the lower bounds provide explicit optimal strategies for the adversary. Peter L. Bartlett, Alexander Rakhlin

Optimal control of distributed generators and capacitors by hybrid DPSO

In this paper, a comprehensive planning methodology is proposed that can minimize the line loss, maximize the reliability and improve the voltage profile in a distribution network. The injected active and reactive power of Distributed Generators (DG) and the installed capacitor sizes at different buses and for different load levels are optimally controlled. The tap setting of HV/MV transformer along with the line and transformer upgrading is also included in the objective function. A hybrid optimization method, called Hybrid Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (HDPSO), is introduced to solve this nonlinear and discrete optimization problem. The proposed HDPSO approach is a developed version of DPSO in which the diversity of the optimizing variables is increased using the genetic algorithm operators to avoid trapping in local minima. The objective function is composed of the investment cost of DGs, capacitors, distribution lines and HV/MV transformer, the line loss, and the reliability. All of these elements are converted into genuine dollars. Given this, a single-objective optimization method is sufficient. The bus voltage and the line current as constraints are satisfied during the optimization procedure. The IEEE 18-bus test system is modified and employed to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The results illustrate the unavoidable need for optimal control on the DG active and reactive power and capacitors in distribution networks.

Optimal-stopping control for airborne collision avoidance and return-to-course flight

This paper considers an aircraft collision avoidance design problem that also incorporates design of the aircraft’s return-to-course flight. This control design problem is formulated as a non-linear optimal-stopping control problem; a formulation that does not require a prior knowledge of time taken to perform the avoidance and return-to-course manoeuvre. A dynamic programming solution to the avoidance and return-to-course problem is presented, before a Markov chain numerical approximation technique is described. Simulation results are presented that illustrate the proposed collision avoidance and return-to-course flight approach.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games

A number of learning problems can be cast as an Online Convex Game: on each round, a learner makes a prediction x from a convex set, the environment plays a loss function f, and the learner’s long-term goal is to minimize regret. Algorithms have been proposed by Zinkevich, when f is assumed to be convex, and Hazan et al., when f is assumed to be strongly convex, that have provably low regret. We consider these two settings and analyze such games from a minimax perspective, proving minimax strategies and lower bounds in each case. These results prove that the existing algorithms are essentially optimal.

Stochastic models for regulatory networks of the genetic toggle switch

Bistability arises within a wide range of biological systems from the λ phage switch in bacteria to cellular signal transduction pathways in mammalian cells. Changes in regulatory mechanisms may result in genetic switching in a bistable system. Recently, more and more experimental evidence in the form of bimodal population distributions indicates that noise plays a very important role in the switching of bistable systems. Although deterministic models have been used for studying the existence of bistability properties under various system conditions, these models cannot realize cell-to-cell fluctuations in genetic switching. However, there is a lag in the development of stochastic models for studying the impact of noise in bistable systems because of the lack of detailed knowledge of biochemical reactions, kinetic rates, and molecular numbers. In this work, we develop a previously undescribed general technique for developing quantitative stochastic models for large-scale genetic regulatory networks by introducing Poisson random variables into deterministic models described by ordinary differential equations. Two stochastic models have been proposed for the genetic toggle switch interfaced with either the SOS signaling pathway or a quorum-sensing signaling pathway, and we have successfully realized experimental results showing bimodal population distributions. Because the introduced stochastic models are based on widely used ordinary differential equation models, the success of this work suggests that this approach is a very promising one for studying noise in large-scale genetic regulatory networks.

Inequitable Provision of Optimal Services for Patients with Chronic Heart failure: A National Geo-Mapping Study

Objective: To compare the location and accessibility of current Australian chronic heart failure (CHF) management programs and general practice services with the probable distribution of the population with CHF. Design and setting: Data on the prevalence and distribution of the CHF population throughout Australia, and the locations of CHF management programs and general practice services from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2005 were analysed using geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Outcome measures: Distance of populations with CHF to CHF management programs and general practice services. Results: The highest prevalence of CHF (20.3–79.8 per 1000 population) occurred in areas with high concentrations of people over 65 years of age and in areas with higher proportions of Indigenous people. Five thousand CHF patients (8%) discharged from hospital in 2004–2005 were managed in one of the 62 identified CHF management programs. There were no CHF management programs in the Northern Territory or Tasmania. Only four CHF management programs were located outside major cities, with a total case load of 80 patients (0.7%). The mean distance from any Australian population centre to the nearest CHF management program was 332 km (median, 163 km; range, 0.15–3246 km). In rural areas, where the burden of CHF management falls upon general practitioners, the mean distance to general practice services was 37 km (median, 20 km; range, 0–656 km). Conclusion: There is an inequity in the provision of CHF management programs to rural Australians.

Identifying optimal lipid raft characteristics required to promote nanoscale protein-protein interactions on the plasma membrane

The dynamic lateral segregation of signaling proteins into microdomains is proposed to facilitate signal transduction, but the constraints on microdomain size, mobility, and diffusion that might realize this function are undefined. Here we interrogate a stochastic spatial model of the plasma membrane to determine how microdomains affect protein dynamics. Taking lipid rafts as representative microdomains, we show that reduced protein mobility in rafts segregates dynamically partitioning proteins, but the equilibrium concentration is largely independent of raft size and mobility. Rafts weakly impede small-scale protein diffusion but more strongly impede long-range protein mobility. The long-range mobility of raft-partitioning and raft-excluded proteins, however, is reduced to a similar extent. Dynamic partitioning into rafts increases specific interprotein collision rates, but to maximize this critical, biologically relevant function, rafts must be small (diameter, 6 to 14 nm) and mobile. Intermolecular collisions can also be favored by the selective capture and exclusion of proteins by rafts, although this mechanism is generally less efficient than simple dynamic partitioning. Generalizing these results, we conclude that microdomains can readily operate as protein concentrators or isolators but there appear to be significant constraints on size and mobility if microdomains are also required to function as reaction chambers that facilitate nanoscale protein-protein interactions. These results may have significant implications for the many signaling cascades that are scaffolded or assembled in plasma membrane microdomains.