An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes - an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes is important to site-specific planning for improving grassland and environmental management over large areas. In this study, a climate-based grassland classification model, the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) was integrated with spatially interpolated climate data to classify grassland in Gansu province, China. The study area is characterized by complex topographic features imposed by plateaus, high mountains, basins and deserts. To improve the quality of the interpolated climate data and the quality of the spatial classification over this complex topography, three linear regression methods, namely an analytic method based on multiple regression and residues (AMMRR), a modification of the AMMRR method through adding the effect of slope and aspect to the interpolation analysis (M-AMMRR) and a method which replaces the IDW approach for residue interpolation in M-AMMRR with an ordinary kriging approach (I-AMMRR), for interpolating climate variables were evaluated. The interpolation outcomes from the best interpolation method were then used in the CSCS model to classify the grassland in the study area. Climate variables interpolated included the annual cumulative temperature and annual total precipitation. The results indicated that the AMMRR and M-AMMRR methods generated acceptable climate surfaces but the best model fit and cross validation result were achieved by the I-AMMRR method. Twenty-six grassland classes were classified for the study area. The four grassland vegetation classes that covered more than half of the total study area were "cool temperate-arid temperate zonal semi-desert", "cool temperate-humid forest steppe and deciduous broad-leaved forest", "temperate-extra-arid temperate zonal desert", and "frigid per-humid rain tundra and alpine meadow". The vegetation classification map generated in this study provides spatial information on the locations and extents of the different grassland classes. This information can be used to facilitate government agencies' decision-making in land-use planning and environmental management, and for vegetation and biodiversity conservation. The information can also be used to assist land managers in the estimation of safe carrying capacities which will help to prevent overgrazing and land degradation.

A variable diffusivity model for the drying of spherical food particulates

An investigation of the drying of spherical food particles was performed, using peas as the model material. In the development of a mathematical model for drying curves, moisture diffusion was modelled using Fick’s second law for mass transfer. The resulting partial differential equation was solved using a forward-time central-space finite difference approximation, with the assumption of variable effective diffusivity. In order to test the model, experimental data was collected for the drying of green peas in a fluidised bed at three drying temperatures. Through fitting three equation types for effective diffusivity to the data, it was found that a linear equation form, in which diffusivity increased with decreasing moisture content, was most appropriate. The final model accurately described the drying curves of the three experimental temperatures, with an R2 value greater than 98.6% for all temperatures.

Cheating prevention in linear secret sharing

Cheating detection in linear secret sharing is considered. The model of cheating extends the Tompa-Woll attack and includes cheating during multiple (unsuccessful) recovery of the secret. It is shown that shares in most linear schemes can be split into subshares. Subshares can be used by participants to trade perfectness of the scheme with cheating prevention. Evaluation of cheating prevention is given in the context of different strategies applied by cheaters.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for a multi-rotor with heavy slung load

In this paper a novel controller for stable and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung loads is introduced. First, simplified equations of motions for the multi-rotor and slung load are derived. The model is then used to design a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) that can manage the highly nonlinear dynamics whilst accounting for system constraints. The controller is shown to simultaneously track specified waypoints whilst actively damping large slung load oscillations. A Linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) controller is also derived, and control performance is compared in simulation. Results show the improved performance of the Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) controller over a larger flight envelope, including aggressive maneuvers and large slung load displacements. Computational cost remains relatively small, amenable to practical implementation. Such systems for small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may provide significant benefit to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction.

Stress relaxation analysis of single chondrocytes using porohyperelastic model based on AFM experiments

The aim of this study is to investigate the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes using the Porohyperelastic (PHE) model and inverse Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Firstly, based on Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) technique, we have found that the chondrocytes exhibited stress relaxation behavior. We explored the mechanism of this stress relaxation behavior and concluded that the intracellular fluid exuding out from the cells during deformation plays the most important role in the stress relaxation. Next, we have applied the inverse FEA technique to determine necessary material parameters for PHE model to simulate this stress relaxation behavior as this model is proven capable of capturing the non-linear behavior and the fluid-solid interaction during the stress relaxation of the single chondrocytes. It is observed that this PHE model can precisely capture the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes and would be a suitable model for cell biomechanics.

A multi-level ecological model of psychotropic prescribing to adults with intellectual disability

Purpose – Simple linear accounts of prescribing do not adequately address reasons “why” doctors prescribe psychotropic medication to people with intellectual disability (ID). Greater understanding of the complex array of factors that influence decisions to prescribe is needed. Design/methodology/approach – After consideration of a number of conceptual frameworks that have potential to better understand prescribing of psychotropic medication to adults with ID, an ecological model of prescribing was developed. A case study is used to outline how the model can provide greater understanding of prescribing processes. Findings – The model presented aims to consider the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of community-based psychotropic prescribing to adults with ID. The utility of the model is illustrated through a consideration of the case study. Research limitations/implications – The model presented is conceptual and is as yet untested. Practical implications – The model presented aims to capture the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of community-based psychotropic prescribing to adults with ID. The model may provide utility for clinicians and researchers as they seek clarification of prescribing decisions. Originality/value – The paper adds valuable insight into factors influencing psychotropic prescribing to adults with ID. The ecological model of prescribing extends traditional analysis that focuses on patient characteristics and introduces multi-level perspectives that may provide utility for clinicians and researchers.

Untangling the evidence : introducing an empirical model for evidence-based library and information practice

Introduction This research is the first to investigate the experiences of teacher-librarians as evidence-based practice. An empirically derived model is presented in this paper. Method This qualitative study utilised the expanded critical incident approach, and investigated the real-life experiences of fifteen Australian teacher-librarians, through semi-structured interviews and inductive data analysis. Data collection utilised semi-structured interviews, on-site observations, journaling and the rubric for contextual information. These approaches allowed each of the interviewees to tell their own story and provided richness to the data. Analysis The analysis involved two types of data categorisation: binary and thematic. Binary classification was used to identify factual details. Thematic analysis involved categorising the emerging themes. Results An empirically derived model for evidence-based practice was devised and associated critical findings identified. The results demonstrate that evidence-based practice for teacher-librarians is a holistic practice. It is not a linear, step-by-step process. Conclusions This study is significant for teacher-librarians and library and information professionals as it provides new understanding of evidence-based practice.

Thrust allocation with linear constrained quadratic cost function

In this paper, a method of thrust allocation based on a linearly constrained quadratic cost function capable of handling rotating azimuths is presented. The problem formulation accounts for magnitude and rate constraints on both thruster forces and azimuth angles. The advantage of this formulation is that the solution can be found with a finite number of iterations for each time step. Experiments with a model ship are used to validate the thrust allocation system.

Validation of a container ship model for parametric rolling

The objective of this work is to formulate a nonlinear, coupled model of a container ship during parametric roll resonance, and to validate the model using experimental data.

Stochastic output feedback model predictive control

This paper addresses the issue of output feedback model predictive control for linear systems with input constraints and stochastic disturbances. We show that the optimal policy uses the Kalman filter for state estimation, but the resultant state estimates are not utilized in a certainty equivalence control law

kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.