A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

One size doesn't fit all. Exploring marketing strategies for influencing three dimensions of brand loyalty

Brand loyalty is a concept that has garnered considerable interest over recent years from both marketing practitioners and academics alike. While marketers are primarily interested in ways they can generate and increase brand loyalty from their customers, academics strive to conducts research which investigates the antecedents and consequences of customer loyalty (See DeWitt, Nguyen and Marshall 2008; Russell-Bennett, McColl-Kennedy and Coote 2007).

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0905, May 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, We’ve been offered a lot of press lately about the Federal Government’s plan for the multibillion dollar rollout of its high speed broadband network, which at the moment is being rated to a speed of 100Mb/s. This seems fantastic in comparison to the not atypical 250 to 500kb/s that I receive on my metropolitan cable broadband, which incidentally my service provider rates at theoretical speeds of up to 8 Mb/s. I have no doubt that such a scheme will generate significant advantages to business and consumers. However, I also have some reservations. Only a few of years ago I marvelled at my first 256Mb USB stick, which cost my employer about $90. Last month I purchased a 16Gb stick with a free computer carry bag for $80, which on the back of my envelope has given me about 72 times the value of my first USB stick not including the carry bag! I am pretty sure the technology industry will find a way to eventually push a lot more than 100Mb/s down the optic fibre network just as they have done with pushing several Mb/s ADSL2 down antique copper wire. This makes me wonder about the general problem of inbuilt obsolescence of all things high-tech due to rapid advances in the tech industry. As a transport professional I then think to myself that our industry has been moving forward at somewhat of a slower pace. We certainly have had major milestones having significant impacts, such as the move from horse and cart to the self propelled motor vehicle, sealing and formal geometric design of roads, development of motorways, signalisation of intersections, coordination of networks, to simulation modelling for real time adaptive control (perhaps major change has been at a frequency of 30 years or so?). But now with ITS truly penetrating the transport market, largely thanks to the in-car GPS navigator, smart phone, e-toll and e-ticket, I believe that to avoid our own obsolescence we’re going to need to “plan for ITS” rather than just what we seem to have been doing up until now, that is, to get it out there. And we’ll likely need to do it at a faster pace. It will involve understanding how to data mine enormous data sets, better understanding the human/machine interface, keeping pace with automotive technology more closely, resolving the ethical and privacy chestnuts, and in the main actually planning for ITS to make peoples’ lives easier rather than harder. And in amongst this we’ll need to keep pace with the types of technology advances similar to my USB stick example above. All the while we’ll be making a brand new set of friends in the disciplines that will morph into ITS along with us. Hopefully these will all be “good” problems for our profession to have. I should close in reminding everyone again that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0907, July 2009 : President's Message

President’s Message AITPM President’s Message, July 2009 Hello fellow AITPM members, It’s now very early July so many Australians are going to experience a range of new, or increases in, fees, charges, and perhaps taxes by State and local governments. For example, Queenslanders are to be hit at the petrol pump, no longer living with the luxury of the State’s previous 8c per litre fuel subsidy, bringing general motorists’ fuel costs into line with the other States. A consolation is that they now don’t have to live with the real or perceived “price gouging” that has appeared in the past to make Queensland prices much closer than 8c to those in other States. Environmental lobbyists argue that this Government’s decision brings public transport costs closer to parity with private transport. However, my sense from sloppy petrol price elasticities is that the State’s motorists will get used to the reversal of what was a reverse tax pretty quickly, an amount which can be less than day-of-the week fluctuation. On the other hand, withholding this State revenue may help in some way the funding of the several major public transport infrastructure projects in progress; not to mention some of the cost of running the Transit Authority’s expanding service commitments. Other policy actions, such as a Federal Government review of taxation on employees’ package vehicles, which might discourage rather than encourage excess kilometres travelled, may have a greater environmental benefit. Of course, a downside is that many vehicles used so are Australian built, and discouraging fleet turnover may damage an industry which faces ever increasing uncertainty, and particularly at the present, is in need of some care and attention. I for one hope to this end that the new 4 cylinder (1.8L petrol or 2L diesel) so called “true Holden” Cruze and Toyota’s pending Camry Hybrid are both roaring successes, and will be taken up in droves as fleet and employee use vehicles. I’m not sure what drive-trains Ford and Holden plan to drop into their next full sized models but even if they’re not Australian sourced, let’s hope they coordinate the requisite performance expected by the “Aussie Battler” with suitable green credentials. I am also encouraged to see that already many Government fleet vehicles are smaller in size, but still fit for purpose. For instance, my local police station uses the Camry based Aurion as a district car. I close again in reminding everyone that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0908, August 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, Just a few days to go until the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, being held at the Adelaide Convention Centre from 5 to 7 August. We look forward to catching up with all of our familiar faces as well as many new faces at this year’s conference, which the South Australian Branch has been seaming together like a Singer sewing machine. I’m looking forward to meeting you at the conference and I do hope you can join us for the Institute’s National Annual General Meeting during the event. Until then, best regards to all Jon Bunker

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0909, September 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, A few weeks have now passed since our 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, which was held at the Adelaide Convention Centre from 5 to 7 August. I personally had a most enjoyable and enriching time at the Conference and felt these same “vibes” all around me. Top marks go to the South Australia organising committee, convened by Andrew Leedham, for their dedication to this our flagship event for the year. I could go on to cite my highlights but there were too many to give due diligence here. I had a number of official functions to perform at the Conference, but one in particular worth mentioning was being interviewed by radio stations 5AA, the main news/talk commercial broadcaster in Adelaide, and 891 ABC Adelaide. All interviewers were focussed on the issue of congestion charging, which is interesting in its emergence as a public conversation piece. My main responses focussed on the importance of providing alternatives for travel to the motorist otherwise being charged by a scheme, if and when decisions were made to implement congestion charging. I found that these opportunities to present AITPM as a professional peak body were very fruitful. The Queensland organising committee is now in full swing organising the 2010 AITPM National Conference, What’s New?, so please keep a lookout for related content. You’ll also find within this edition a transcript of my President’s Report to the 2009 AITPM National Annual General Meeting, which was held during the Adelaide Conference. Best regards to all, Jon Bunker

Maternal age and paternal age are associated with distinct childhood behavioural outcomes in a general population birth cohort

Abstract Background Recent studies show that advanced paternal age (APA) is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A body of evidence also suggests that individuals who develop schizophrenia show subtle deviations in a range of behavioural domains during their childhood. The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between paternal and maternal ages and selected behavioural measures in children using a large birth cohort. Method Participants were singleton children (n = 21,753) drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 7 years. The main analyses examined the relationship between parental age and behavioural measures when adjusted for a range of potentially confounding variables, including age of the other parent, maternal race, socio-economic measures, sex, gestation length, maternal marital status, parental mental illness, and child's age-at-testing. Results Advanced paternal age was associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse ‘externalizing’ behaviours at age seven years. For every five year increase in paternal age, the odds of higher ‘externalizing’ behaviours was increased by 12% (OR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.21, p < 0.0001). The relationship persisted after adjusting for potential confounding factors. ‘Internalizing’ behavioural outcome was not associated with advanced paternal age. In contrast, advanced maternal age was significantly protective against adverse ‘externalizing’ behavioural outcomes, but associated with an increased risk of adverse ‘internalizing’ behavioural outcomes. Discussion The offspring of older fathers show a distinctly different pattern of behaviours compared to the offspring of older mothers. The diverse socio-cultural and biologically-mediated factors that underpin these findings remain to be clarified. In light of secular trends related to delayed parenthood, the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

The strategic and operational dimensions of staff training and professional development for information professionals : what neXus2 has revealed

The paper seeks to continue the debate about the need for professionals in the library and information services (LIS) sector to continually engage in career-long learning to sustain and develop their knowledge and skills in a dynamic industry. Aims: The neXus2 workforce study has been funded by the ALIA and the consortium of National and State Libraries Australasia (NSLA). It builds on earlier research work (the neXus census) that looked at the demographic, educational and career perspectives of individual library and information professions, to critically examine institutional policies and practices associated with the LIS workforce. The research aims to develop a clearer understanding of the issues impacting on workforce sustainability, workforce capability and workforce optimisation. Methods: The research methodology involved an extensive online survey conducted in March 2008 which collected data on organisational and general staffing; recruitment and retention; staff development and continuing professional education; and succession planning. Encouragement to participate was provided by key industry groups, including academic, public, health, law and government library and information agencies, with the result that around 150 institutions completed the questionnaire. Results: The paper will specifically discuss the research findings relating to training and professional development, to measure the scope and distribution of training activities across the workforce, to consider the interrelationship between the strategic and operational dimensions of staff development in individual institutions and to analyse the common and distinctive factors evident in the different sectors of the profession. Conclusion: The neXus2 project has successfully engaged LIS institutions in the collection of complex industry data that is relevant to the future education and workforce strategies for all areas of the profession. Cross-sector forums such as Information Online 2009 offer the opportunity for stimulating professional dialogue on the key issues.

Should mental health issues be addressed in primary care, and can it be done? Views of rural general practitioners in Queensland

Objective: The aim of this paper was to examine self-efficacy and perceived appropriateness among rural general practitioners (GPs) in regards to screening and intervention for physical, lifestyle and mental health issues. ----- Method: Fifty GPs from 25 practices in eight rural Queensland towns completed a written survey designed for the study. ----- Results: General practitioners rated opportunistic screening or assessment for smoking and for detection of relapse of mental disorders as the most appropriate, with even cardiovascular and diabetes risk falling behind these. Self-efficacy was highest for medical disorders for smoking assessment. It was significantly lower for alcohol, mental health issues, and addressing risks of physical disorder in people with mental disorders. ----- Conclusions: High appropriateness ratings suggest that current strategies to boost self-efficacy of GPs in addressing mental health issues are timely.

Challenges faced by general practitioners and allied mental health services in providing mental health services in rural Queensland

Objective: To examine the views of rural practitioners concerning issues and challenges in mental health service delivery and possible solutions. Design: A qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews. Setting: Eight general practices from eight rural Queensland towns, three rural mental health services and two non-government organisations, with interviews being conducted before recent changes in government-subsidised access to allied health practitioners. Participants: A sample of 37 GPs, 19 Queensland Health mental health staff and 18 participants from community organisations. Main outcome measures: Analysis of qualitative themes from questions about the key mental health issues facing the town, bow they might be addressed and what challenges would be faced in addressing them. Results: There was substantial consensus that there are significant problems with inter-service communication and liaison, and that improved collaboration and shared care will form a critical part of any effective solution. Differences between groups reflected differing organisational contexts and priorities, and limitations to the understanding each had of the challenges that other groups were facing. C onclusions: Improvements to mental health staffing and to access to allied health might increase the ability of GPs to meet the needs of less complex patients, but specific strategies to promote better integrated services are required to address the needs of rural and regional patients with complex mental health problems. The current study provides a baseline against which effects of recent initiatives to improve mental health care can be assessed.

Burden of care and general health in families of patients with schizophrenia

Background: De-institutionalization of psychiatric patients has led to a greater emphasis on family management in the community, and family members are often overwhelmed by the demands that caring for a patient with schizophrenia involves. Most studies of family burden in schizophrenia have taken place in developed countries. The current study examined family burden and its correlates in a regional area of a medium income country in South America. Method: Sixty-five relatives of patients with schizophrenia who were attending a public mental health out-patient service in the province of Arica, Chile, were assessed on Spanish versions of the Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale and SF-36 Health Survey (SF-36). Results: Average levels of burden were very high, particularly for mothers, carers with less education, carers of younger patients and carers of patients with more hospitalisations in the previous 3 years. Kinship and number of recent hospitalisations retained unique predictive variance in a multiple regression. Burden was the strongest predictor of SF-36 subscales, and the prediction from burden remained significant after entry of other potential predictors. Conclusions: In common with families in developed countries, family members of schizophrenia patients in regional Chile reported high levels of burden and related functional and health impact. The study highlighted the support needs of carers in contexts with high rates of poverty and limited health and community resources.

'The seven things all men love in bed' : young women's magazines and the governance of femininity

Rather than passing judgment of the content of young women’s magazines, it will be argued instead that such texts actually exist as manuals of self-formation, manuals which enroll young women to do specific kinds of work on themselves. In doing so, they form an effective link between the governmental imperatives aimed at constructing particular personas – such as the sexually responsible young girl - and the actual practices whereby these imperatives are operationalised.

Introduction

The title of this book, Hard Lesson: Reflections on Crime control in Late Modernity, contains a number of clues about its general theoretical direction. It is a book concerned, fist and foremost, with the vagaries of crime control in western neo-liberal and English speaking countries. More specifically, Hard Lessons draws attention to a number of examples in which discrete populations – those who have in one way or another offended against the criminal law - have become the subjects of various forms of stare intervention, regulation and control. We are concerned most of all with the ways in which recent criminal justice policies and practices have resulted in what are variously described as unintended consequences, unforeseen outcomes, unanticipated results, counter-productive effects or negative side effects. At their simplest, such terms refer to the apparent gulf between intention and outcome; they often form the basis for considerable amount of policy reappraisal, soul searching and even nihilistic despair among the mamandirns of crime control. Unintended consequences can, of course, be both positive and negative. Occasionally, crime control measures may result in beneficial outcomes, such as the use of DNA to acquit wrongly convicted prisoners. Generally, however, unforeseen effects tend to be negative and even entirely counterproductive, and/or directly opposite to what were originally intended. All this, of course, presupposes some sort of rational, well meaning and transparent policy making process so beloved by liberal social policy theorists. Yet, as Judith Bessant points out in her chapter, this view of policy formulation tends to obscure the often covert, regulatory and downright malevolent intentions contained in many government policies and practices. Indeed, history is replete with examples of governments seeking to mask their real aims from a prying public eye. Denials and various sorts of ‘techniques of neutralisation’ serve to cloak the real or ‘underlying’ aims of the powerful (Cohen 2000). The latest crop of ‘spin doctors’ and ‘official spokespersons’ has ensured that the process of governmental obfuscation, distortion and concealment remains deeply embedded in neo-liberal forms of governance. There is little new or surprising in this; nor should we be shocked when things ‘go wrong’ in the domain of crime control since many unintended consequences are, more often than not, quite predictable. Prison riots, high rates of recidivism and breaches of supervision orders, expansion rather than contraction of control systems, laws that create the opposite of what was intended – all these are normative features of western crime control. Indeed, without the deep fault lines running between policy and outcome it would be hard to imagine what many policy makers, administrators and practitioners would do: their day to day work practices and (and incomes) are directly dependent upon emergent ‘service delivery’ problems. Despite recurrent howls of official anguish and occasional despondency it is apparent that those involved in the propping up the apparatus of crime control have a vested interest in ensuring that polices and practices remain in an enduring state of review and reform.

The potential for a web based intervention to improve young adult passenger safety

Young drivers aged 17-24 are consistently overrepresented in motor vehicle crashes. Research has shown that a young driver’s crash risk increases when carrying similarly aged passengers, with fatal crash risk increasing two to three fold with two or more passengers. Recent growth in access to and use of the internet has led to a corresponding increase in the number of web based behaviour change interventions. An increasing body of literature describes the evaluation of web based programs targeting risk behaviours and health issues. Evaluations have shown promise for such strategies with evidence for positive changes in knowledge, attitudes and behaviour. The growing popularity of web based programs is due in part to their wide accessibility, ability for personalised tailoring of intervention messages, and self-direction and pacing of online content. Young people are also highly receptive to the internet and the interactive elements of online programs are particularly attractive. The current study was designed to assess the feasibility for a web based intervention to increase the use of personal and peer protective strategies among young adult passengers. An extensive review was conducted on the development and evaluation of web based programs. Year 12 students were also surveyed about their use of the internet in general and for health and road safety information. All students reported internet access at home or at school, and 74% had searched for road safety information. Additional findings have shown promise for the development of a web based passenger safety program for young adults. Design and methodological issues will be discussed.

Youth, Sport and the Social Inclusion Agenda

The purpose of this paper is to assess aspects of the British Government's attempts to use sporting participation as a vehicle to re-integrate socially disadvantaged, excluded and 'at-risk' youth into mainstream society. A number of organisations, policy-makers, commentators, and practitioners with a stake in the 'sport and social inclusion agenda' were interviewed. General agreement was found on a number of points: that the field was overly crowded with policies, programmes and initiatives; that the field worked in a 'bottom-up' way, with the most significant factor determining success being effective local workers with good networks and cultural access; that the dichotomising rhetoric of inclusion/exclusion was counter-productive; that the notion of the 'at-risk youth' was problematic and unhelpful; and that they all now dealt with a marketplace, where 'clients' had to be enrolled in their own reformation. There was also disagreement on a number of points: that policy acts as a relatively accurate template for practice, as opposed to the argument that it was simply regarded as a cluster of suggestions for practice; that policy was exceptionally piecemeal in its formulation and application, as opposed to regarding policy as necessarily targeted and dispersed; and that the inclusion agenda was largely politically driven and transitory, as opposed to the optimistic view that it had become ingrained in local practice. Finally, the paper examines some issues that are the most likely points of contribution by researchers in the area: that more research needs to be done on the processes of identity formation associated with participation in sport; that more effective programme evaluation needs to be done for such forms of governmental intervention to work properly; and that the relationship between different kinds of physical activity and social and personal change needs to be more thoroughly theorised.