Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

A learner perspective on barriers to e-learning

This study aims to identify and categorize barriers to e-learning adoption and the relative impact of those barriers on learners. It contributes to the understanding of learner perceptions of barriers, the different types of barriers and their relative importance. This study used a quantitative methodology grounded in previous literature. The study is based on a self-administered questionnaire conducted with employees in a rail organisation. This research demonstrates there are three key factors that represent barriers to e-learning: the nature of e-learning as a learning approach, the use of technology, and concerns about lack of time and potential interruptions when trying to complete e-learning.

The role of HRM practices in building intellectual capital in knowledge-based teams

In this paper, we investigate the ways HRM systems support development of intellectual capital in teams in three case studies of knowledge-intensive firms (KIFs) in Denmark. By focusing on team composition and structure, findings build on the rapidly growing body of literature on HRM’s role in supporting intellectual capital development. Specifically, we make a theoretical contribution to this literature by identifying three distinct ways KIFs develop intellectual capital: 1) through HRM development systems that build relationship-centric team-based intellectual capital by targeting development of social capital; 2) through HRM employee relations systems that build human-centric team based intellectual capital by targeting human capital; 3) through a balanced approach to HRM that builds polycentric team-based intellectual capital through focusing on all aspects of intellectual capital. The findings also have managerial implications regarding the need to align team composition and structure, HRM systems, and intellectual capital focus to support development of team-based intellectual capital.

Postnatal depression in Central Vietnam

Postnatal depression (PND) is a significant global health issue, which not only impacts maternal wellbeing, but also infant development and family structures. Mental health disorders represent approximately 14% of global burden of disease and disability, including low and middle-income countries (LMIC), and PND has direct relevance to the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, and creating global partnerships (United Nations, 2012; Guiseppe, Becker & Farmer, 2011). Emerging evidence suggests that PND in LMIC is similar to, or higher than in high-income countries (HIC), however, less than 10% of LMIC have prevalence data available (Fisher, Cabral de Mello, & Izutsu 2009; Lund et al., 2011). Whilst a small number of studies on maternal mental disorders have been published in Vietnam, only one specifically focuses on PND in a hospital-based sample. Also, community based mental health studies and information on mental health in rural areas of Vietnam is still scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of PND, and its associated social determinants in postnatal women in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam. In order to identify social determinants relevant to the Central Vietnamese context, two qualitative studies and one community survey were undertaken. Associations between maternal mental health and infant health outcomes were also explored. The study was comprised of three phases. Firstly, iterative, qualitative interviews with Vietnamese health professionals (n = 17) and postpartum women (n = 15) were conducted and analysed using Kleinman's theory of explanatory models to identify narratives surrounding PND in the Vietnamese context (Kleinman, 1978). Secondly, a participatory concept mapping exercise was undertaken with two groups of health professionals (n = 12) to explore perceived risk and protective factors for postnatal mental health. Qualitative phases of the research elucidated narratives surrounding maternal mental health in the Vietnamese context such as son preference, use of traditional medicines, and the popularity of confinement practices such as having one to three months of complete rest. The qualitative research also revealed the construct of depression was not widely recognised. Rather, postpartum changes in mood were conceptualised as a loss of 'vital strength' following childbirth or 'disappointment'. Most women managed postpartum changes in mood within the family although some sought help from traditional medicine practitioners or biomedical doctors. Thirdly, a cross-sectional study of twelve randomly selected communes (six urban, six rural) in Thua Thien Hue Province was then conducted. Overall, 465 women with infants between 4 weeks and six months old participated, and 431 questionnaires were analysed. Women from urban (n = 216) and rural (n = 215) areas participated. All eligible women completed a structured interview about their health, basic demographics, and social circumstances. Maternal depression was measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) as a continuous variable. Multivariate generalised linear regression was conducted using PASW Statistics version 18.0 (2009). When using the conventional EPDS threshold for probable depression (EPDS score ~ 13) 18.1% (n = 78) of women were depressed (Gibson, McKenzie-McHarg, Shakespeare, Price & Gray, 2009). Interestingly, 20.4% of urban women (n = 44) had EPDS scores~ 13, which was a higher proportion than rural women, where 15.8% (n = 34) had EPDS scores ~ 13, although this difference was not statistically significant: t(429) = -0.689, p = 0.491. Whilst qualitative narratives identified infant gender and family composition, and traditional confinement practices as relevant to postnatal mood, these were not statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Rather, poverty, food security, being frightened of your husband or family members, experiences of intimate partner violence and breastfeeding difficulties had strong statistical associations. PND was also associated with having an infant with diarrhoea in the past two weeks, but not infant malnutrition or acute respiratory infections. This study is the first to explore maternal mental health in Central Vietnam, and provides further evidence that PND is a universally experienced phenomenon. The independent social risk factors of depressive symptoms identified such as poverty, food insecurity, experiences of violence and powerlessness, and relationship adversity points to women in a context of social suffering which is relevant throughout the world (Kleinman, Das & Lock, 1997). The culturally specific risk factors explored such as infant gender were not statistically significant when included in a multivariable model. However, they feature prominently in qualitative narratives surrounding PND in Vietnam, both in this study and previous literature. It appears that whilst infant gender may not be associated with PND per se, the reactions of close relatives to the gender of the baby can adversely affect maternal wellbeing. This study used a community based participatory research approach (CBPR) (Israel.2005). This approach encourages the knowledge produced to be used for public health interventions and workforce training in the community in which the research was conducted, and such work has commenced. These results suggest that packages of interventions for LMIC devised to address maternal mental health and infant wellbeing could be applied in Central Vietnam. Such interventions could include training lay workers to follow up postpartum women, and incorporating mental health screening and referral into primary maternal and child health care (Pate! et al., 2011; Rahman, Malik, Sikander & Roberts, 2008). Addressing the underlying social determinants of PND through poverty reduction and violence elimination programs is also recommended.

How do Chinese fashion designers become global fashion leaders? A new perspective on legitimisation in China’s fashion system

The term fashion system describes inter-relationships between production and consumption, illustrating how the production of fashion is a collective activity. For instance, Yuniya Kawamura (2011) notes systems for the production of fashion differ around the globe and are subject to constant change, and Jennifer Craik (1994, 6) draws attention to an ‘array of competing and intermeshing systems cutting across western and non-western cultures. In China, Shanghai’s nascent fashion system seeks to emulate the Eurocentric system of Fashion Weeks and industry support groups. It promises designers a platform for global competition, yet there are tensions from within. Interaction with a fashion system inevitably means becoming validated or legitimised. Legitimisation in turn depends upon gatekeepers who make aesthetic judgments about the status, quality, and cultural value of a designers work (Becker 2008). My paper offers a new perspective on legitimisation that is drawn mainly from my PhD research. I argue that some Chinese fashion designers are on the path to becoming global fashion designers because they have embraced a global aesthetic that resonates with the human condition, rather than the manufactured authenticity of a Eurocentric fashion system that perpetuates endless consumption. In this way, they are able to ‘self-legitimise’. I contend these designers are ‘designers for humans’, because they are able to look beyond the mythology of fashion brands, and the Eurocentric fashion system, where they explore the tensions of man and culture in their practice. Furthermore, their design ethos pursues beauty, truth and harmony in the Chinese philosophical sense, as well as incorporating financial return in a process that is still enacted through a fashion system. Accordingly, cultural tradition, heritage and modernity, while still valuable, have less impact on their practice.

Labour attraction and retention in rural and remote Queensland communities

Attracting and retaining a skilled labour force is a critical yet complex issue for rural and remote communities. This article reports the findings of a study investigating the current approaches to attraction and retention in two separate Australian regions. Building on previously developed models, this research analyses the roles employers and wider communities are playing, or potentially could play, in addressing issues that influence labour shortages. The findings of this research highlight the complexities of labour attraction and retention and emphasise the need for communities and businesses to work together to overcome labour shortages in rural and remote locations.

Prognostic value of hTERT mRNA expression in surgical samples of lung cancer patients : the European Early Lung Cancer Project

Lung cancer is the most important cause of cancer-related mortality. Resectability and eligibility for treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy is determined by staging according to the TNM classification. Other determinants of tumour behaviour that predict disease outcome, such as molecular markers, may improve decision-making. Activation of the gene encoding human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) is implicated in the pathogenesis of lung cancer, and consequently detection of hTERT mRNA might have prognostic value for patients with early stage lung cancer. A cohort of patients who underwent a complete resection for early stage lung cancer was recruited as part of the European Early Lung Cancer (EUELC) project. In 166 patients expression of hTERT mRNA was determined in tumour tissue by quantitative real-time RT-PCR and related to that of a house-keeping gene (PBGD). Of a subgroup of 130 patients tumour-distant normal tissue was additionally available for hTERT mRNA analysis. The correlation between hTERT levels of surgical samples and disease-free survival was determined using a Fine and Gray hazard model. Although hTERT mRNA positivity in tumour tissue was significantly associated with clinical stage (Fisher's exact test p=0.016), neither hTERT mRNA detectability nor hTERT mRNA levels in tumour tissue were associated with clinical outcome. Conversely, hTERT positivity in adjacent normal samples was associated with progressive disease, 28% of patients with progressive disease versus 7.5% of disease-free patients had detectable hTERT mRNA in normal tissue [adjusted HR: 3.60 (1.64-7.94), p=0.0015]. hTERT mRNA level in tumour tissue has no prognostic value for patients with early stage lung cancer. However, detection of hTERT mRNA expression in tumour-distant normal lung tissue may indicate an increased risk of progressive disease.

Contemporary challenges in e-learning

Technology is impacting on most elements of organisations today and workforce development professionals have been some of the leading proponents of embracing technologies and the benefits they offer. E-learning has emerged as at least a complementary offering to face-to-face training, and in some cases has totally replaced more traditional forms of workforce development. This chapter explores the use of learning technologies and the benefits and drawbacks of their use. In particular it focuses on further exploring the issue of a perceived lack of interaction in some e-learning offerings; a factor identified as critical to address in order to ensure effective e-learning. The chapter discusses the issues of interaction and social presence to address feelings of isolation and offers some key considerations for those considering integrating technology into workforce development.

Phosphodiesterase PDE3, but not PDE4, reduces β1- and β2-adrenoceptor-mediated inotropic and lusitropic effects in failing ventricle from metoprolol-treated patients

Background and purpose Phosphodiesterases PDE3 and/or PDE4 control ventricular effects of catecholamines in several species but their relative effects in failing human ventricle are unknown. We investigated whether the PDE3-selective inhibitor cilostamide (0.3-1μM) or PDE4 inhibitor rolipram (1-10μM) modified the positive inotropic and lusitropic effects of catecholamines in human failing myocardium. Experimental approach Right and left ventricular trabeculae from freshly explanted hearts of 5 non-β-blocker-treated and 15 metoprolol-treated patients with terminal heart failure were paced to contract at 1Hz. The effects of (-)-noradrenaline, mediated through β1-adrenoceptors (β2-adrenoceptors blocked with ICI118551), and (-)-adrenaline, mediated through β2-adrenoceptors (β1-adrenoceptors blocked with CGP20712A), were assessed in the absence and presence of PDE inhibitors. Catecholamine potencies were estimated from –logEC50s. Key results Cilostamide did not significantly potentiate the inotropic effects of the catecholamines in non-β-blocker-treated patients. Cilostamide caused greater potentiation (P=0.037) of the positive inotropic effects of (-)-adrenaline (0.78±0.12 log units) than (-)-noradrenaline (0.47±0.12 log units) in metoprolol-treated patients. Lusitropic effects of the catecholamines were also potentiated by cilostamide. Rolipram did not affect the inotropic and lusitropic potencies of (-)-noradrenaline or (-)-adrenaline on right and left ventricular trabeculae from metoprolol-treated patients. Conclusions and implications Metoprolol induces a control by PDE3 of ventricular effects mediated through both β1- and β2-adrenoceptors, thereby further reducing sympathetic cardiostimulation in patients with terminal heart failure. Concurrent therapy with a PDE3 blocker and metoprolol could conceivably facilitate cardiostimulation evoked by adrenaline through β2-adrenoceptors. PDE4 does not appear to reduce inotropic and lusitropic effects of catecholamines in failing human ventricle.

Optimising offsets and bandwidths in vehicle traffic networks

Bandwidths and offsets are important components in vehicle traffic control strategies. This article proposes new methods for quantifying and selecting them. Bandwidth is the amount of green time available for vehicles to travel through adjacent intersections without the requirement to stop at the second traffic light. The offset is the difference between the starting-time of ``green'' periods at two adjacent intersections, along a given route. The core ideas in this article were developed during the 2013 Maths and Industry Study Group in Brisbane, Australia. Analytical expressions for computing bandwidth, as a function of offset, are developed. An optimisation model, for selecting offsets across an arterial, is proposed. Arterial roads were focussed upon, as bandwidth and offset have a greater impact on these types of road as opposed to a full traffic network. A generic optimisation-simulation approach is also proposed to refine an initial starting solution, according to a specified metric. A metric that reflects the number of stops, and the distance between stops, is proposed to explicitly reduce the dissatisfaction of road users, and to implicitly reduce fuel consumption and emissions. Conceptually the optimisation-simulation approach is superior as it handles real-life complexities and is a global optimisation approach. The models and equations in this article can be used in road planning and traffic control.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Learning and development opportunities as a tool for the retention of volunteers : a motivation perspective

The growing reliance on volunteers in Australia has heightened the need for non-profit organisations to retain these valuable resources. However, the current literature on volunteer retention is limited. One potential way volunteers can be retained is by providing learning and development opportunities (LDOs). This study investigates the relationship between volunteer perceptions of LDOs, their motivations for volunteering, and retention. Analyses revealed significant main effects for LDOs and volunteer motivations on retention and several interactive effects demonstrating that LDOs can have differential effects on retention depending on the reasons for volunteering.

Physical activity, self-regulation, and early academic achievement in preschool children

Research Findings The present study investigated whether active play during recess was associated with self-regulation and academic achievement in a prekindergarten sample. A total of 51 children in classes containing approximately half Head Start children were assessed on self-regulation, active play, and early academic achievement. Path analyses indicated that higher active play was associated with better self-regulation, which in turn was associated with higher scores on early reading and math assessments. Practice or Policy Results point to the benefits of active play for promoting self-regulation and offer insight into possible interventions designed to promote self-regulation and academic achievement.

Balancing organizational and professional commitments in professional service firms : the HR practices that matter

Due to their potential to positively influence sales quality and performance and reduce employee turnover in service organizations, HR practices targeting employee commitment have received considerable attention in the HRM literature in recent years. Parallel to this, there has been increasing focus on the nature of commitment, and in particular the existence of multiple commitment foci. In this paper, we examine how HR practices influence professionals' commitment to their organization, to their profession or to both organization and profession, in a qualitative study of three Danish financial investment firms. Our findings suggest that in professional service firms, HR practices encourage high levels of organizational commitment primarily and most often through their influence on professional commitment and that HR practices related to flexible work design are essential in creating balance between an employee's commitment to organization and commitment to their profession. Further, the findings suggest that these same HR practices may foster such high levels of professional commitment that labor turnover will increase when opportunities for pursuing professional goals afforded by work design are restricted.

Electron tomography reveals the steps in filovirus budding

The filoviruses, Marburg and Ebola, are non-segmented negative-strand RNA viruses causing severe hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in humans and nonhuman primates. The sequence of events that leads to release of filovirus particles from cells is poorly understood. Two contrasting mechanisms have been proposed, one proceeding via a "submarine-like" budding with the helical nucleocapsid emerging parallel to the plasma membrane, and the other via perpendicular "rocketlike" protrusion. Here we have infected cells with Marburg virus under BSL-4 containment conditions, and reconstructed the sequence of steps in the budding process in three dimensions using electron tomography of plastic-embedded cells. We find that highly infectious filamentous particles are released at early stages in infection. Budding proceeds via lateral association of intracellular nucleocapsid along its whole length with the plasma membrane, followed by rapid envelopment initiated at one end of the nucleocapsid, leading to a protruding intermediate. Scission results in local membrane instability at the rear of the virus. After prolonged infection, increased vesiculation of the plasma membrane correlates with changes in shape and infectivity of released viruses. Our observations demonstrate a cellular determinant of virus shape. They reconcile the contrasting models of filovirus budding and allow us to describe the sequence of events taking place during budding and release of Marburg virus. We propose that this represents a general sequence of events also followed by other filamentous and rod-shaped viruses.