Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Integrating collaborative filtering and search-based techniques for personalized online product recommendation

The existing Collaborative Filtering (CF) technique that has been widely applied by e-commerce sites requires a large amount of ratings data to make meaningful recommendations. It is not directly applicable for recommending products that are not frequently purchased by users, such as cars and houses, as it is difficult to collect rating data for such products from the users. Many of the e-commerce sites for infrequently purchased products are still using basic search-based techniques whereby the products that match with the attributes given in the target user's query are retrieved and recommended to the user. However, search-based recommenders cannot provide personalized recommendations. For different users, the recommendations will be the same if they provide the same query regardless of any difference in their online navigation behaviour. This paper proposes to integrate collaborative filtering and search-based techniques to provide personalized recommendations for infrequently purchased products. Two different techniques are proposed, namely CFRRobin and CFAg Query. Instead of using the target user's query to search for products as normal search based systems do, the CFRRobin technique uses the products in which the target user's neighbours have shown interest as queries to retrieve relevant products, and then recommends to the target user a list of products by merging and ranking the returned products using the Round Robin method. The CFAg Query technique uses the products that the user's neighbours have shown interest in to derive an aggregated query, which is then used to retrieve products to recommend to the target user. Experiments conducted on a real e-commerce dataset show that both the proposed techniques CFRRobin and CFAg Query perform better than the standard Collaborative Filtering (CF) and the Basic Search (BS) approaches, which are widely applied by the current e-commerce applications. The CFRRobin and CFAg Query approaches also outperform the e- isting query expansion (QE) technique that was proposed for recommending infrequently purchased products.

Semantics-based web service discovery using information retrieval techniques

This paper demonstrates an experimental study that examines the accuracy of various information retrieval techniques for Web service discovery. The main goal of this research is to evaluate algorithms for semantic web service discovery. The evaluation is comprehensively benchmarked using more than 1,700 real-world WSDL documents from INEX 2010 Web Service Discovery Track dataset. For automatic search, we successfully use Latent Semantic Analysis and BM25 to perform Web service discovery. Moreover, we provide linking analysis which automatically links possible atomic Web services to meet the complex requirements of users. Our fusion engine recommends a final result to users. Our experiments show that linking analysis can improve the overall performance of Web service discovery. We also find that keyword-based search can quickly return results but it has limitation of understanding users’ goals.

Optimising container processes at multimodal seaport terminals : an integrated approach and application

A Multimodal Seaport Container Terminal (MSCT) is a complex system which requires careful planning and control in order to operate efficiently. It consists of a number of subsystems that require optimisation of the operations within them, as well as synchronisation of machines and containers between the various subsystems. Inefficiency in the terminal can delay ships from their scheduled timetables, as well as cause delays in delivering containers to their inland destinations, both of which can be very costly to their operators. The purpose of this PhD thesis is to use Operations Research methodologies to optimise and synchronise these subsystems as an integrated application. An initial model is developed for the overall MSCT; however, due to a large number of assumptions that had to be made, as well as other issues, it is found to be too inaccurate and infeasible for practical use. Instead, a method of developing models for each subsystem is proposed that then be integrated with each other. Mathematical models are developed for the Storage Area System (SAS) and Intra-terminal Transportation System (ITTS). The SAS deals with the movement and assignment of containers to stacks within the storage area, both when they arrive and when they are rehandled to retrieve containers below them. The ITTS deals with scheduling the movement of containers and machines between the storage areas and other sections of the terminal, such as the berth and road/rail terminals. Various constructive heuristics are explored and compared for these models to produce good initial solutions for large-sized problems, which are otherwise impractical to compute by exact methods. These initial solutions are further improved through the use of an innovative hyper-heuristic algorithm that integrates the SAS and ITTS solutions together and optimises them through meta-heuristic techniques. The method by which the two models can interact with each other as an integrated system will be discussed, as well as how this method can be extended to the other subsystems of the MSCT.

Weighted LDA techniques for I-vector based speaker verification

This paper introduces the Weighted Linear Discriminant Analysis (WLDA) technique, based upon the weighted pairwise Fisher criterion, for the purposes of improving i-vector speaker verification in the presence of high intersession variability. By taking advantage of the speaker discriminative information that is available in the distances between pairs of speakers clustered in the development i-vector space, the WLDA technique is shown to provide an improvement in speaker verification performance over traditional Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) approaches. A similar approach is also taken to extend the recently developed Source Normalised LDA (SNLDA) into Weighted SNLDA (WSNLDA) which, similarly, shows an improvement in speaker verification performance in both matched and mismatched enrolment/verification conditions. Based upon the results presented within this paper using the NIST 2008 Speaker Recognition Evaluation dataset, we believe that both WLDA and WSNLDA are viable as replacement techniques to improve the performance of LDA and SNLDA-based i-vector speaker verification.

The scalability and the strategy for EMR database encryption techniques

EMR (Electronic Medical Record) is an emerging technology that is highly-blended between non-IT and IT area. One methodology is to link the non-IT and IT area is to construct databases. Nowadays, it supports before and after-treatment for patients and should satisfy all stakeholders such as practitioners, nurses, researchers, administrators and financial departments and so on. In accordance with the database maintenance, DAS (Data as Service) model is one solution for outsourcing. However, there are some scalability and strategy issues when we need to plan to use DAS model properly. We constructed three kinds of databases such as plan-text, MS built-in encryption which is in-house model and custom AES (Advanced Encryption Standard) - DAS model scaling from 5K to 2560K records. To perform custom AES-DAS better, we also devised Bucket Index using Bloom Filter. The simulation showed the response times arithmetically increased in the beginning but after a certain threshold, exponentially increased in the end. In conclusion, if the database model is close to in-house model, then vendor technology is a good way to perform and get query response times in a consistent manner. If the model is DAS model, it is easy to outsource the database, however, some techniques like Bucket Index enhances its utilization. To get faster query response times, designing database such as consideration of the field type is also important. This study suggests cloud computing would be a next DAS model to satisfy the scalability and the security issues.

Damage quantification techniques in acoustic emission monitoring

Acoustic emission (AE) analysis is one of the several diagnostic techniques available nowadays for structural health monitoring (SHM) of engineering structures. Some of its advantages over other techniques include high sensitivity to crack growth and capability of monitoring a structure in real time. The phenomenon of rapid release of energy within a material by crack initiation or growth in form of stress waves is known as acoustic emission (AE). In AE technique, these stress waves are recorded by means of suitable sensors placed on the surface of a structure. Recorded signals are subsequently analysed to gather information about the nature of the source. By enabling early detection of crack growth, AE technique helps in planning timely retrofitting or other maintenance jobs or even replacement of the structure if required. In spite of being a promising tool, some challenges do still exist behind the successful application of AE technique. Large amount of data is generated during AE testing, hence effective data analysis is necessary, especially for long term monitoring uses. Appropriate analysis of AE data for quantification of damage level is an area that has received considerable attention. Various approaches available for damage quantification for severity assessment are discussed in this paper, with special focus on civil infrastructure such as bridges. One method called improved b-value analysis is used to analyse data collected from laboratory testing.

Improving trust and securing data accessibility for e-health decision making by using data encryption techniques

In the medical and healthcare arena, patients‟ data is not just their own personal history but also a valuable large dataset for finding solutions for diseases. While electronic medical records are becoming popular and are used in healthcare work places like hospitals, as well as insurance companies, and by major stakeholders such as physicians and their patients, the accessibility of such information should be dealt with in a way that preserves privacy and security. Thus, finding the best way to keep the data secure has become an important issue in the area of database security. Sensitive medical data should be encrypted in databases. There are many encryption/ decryption techniques and algorithms with regard to preserving privacy and security. Currently their performance is an important factor while the medical data is being managed in databases. Another important factor is that the stakeholders should decide more cost-effective ways to reduce the total cost of ownership. As an alternative, DAS (Data as Service) is a popular outsourcing model to satisfy the cost-effectiveness but it takes a consideration that the encryption/ decryption modules needs to be handled by trustworthy stakeholders. This research project is focusing on the query response times in a DAS model (AES-DAS) and analyses the comparison between the outsourcing model and the in-house model which incorporates Microsoft built-in encryption scheme in a SQL Server. This research project includes building a prototype of medical database schemas. There are 2 types of simulations to carry out the project. The first stage includes 6 databases in order to carry out simulations to measure the performance between plain-text, Microsoft built-in encryption and AES-DAS (Data as Service). Particularly, the AES-DAS incorporates implementations of symmetric key encryption such as AES (Advanced Encryption Standard) and a Bucket indexing processor using Bloom filter. The results are categorised such as character type, numeric type, range queries, range queries using Bucket Index and aggregate queries. The second stage takes the scalability test from 5K to 2560K records. The main result of these simulations is that particularly as an outsourcing model, AES-DAS using the Bucket index shows around 3.32 times faster than a normal AES-DAS under the 70 partitions and 10K record-sized databases. Retrieving Numeric typed data takes shorter time than Character typed data in AES-DAS. The aggregation query response time in AES-DAS is not as consistent as that in MS built-in encryption scheme. The scalability test shows that the DBMS reaches in a certain threshold; the query response time becomes rapidly slower. However, there is more to investigate in order to bring about other outcomes and to construct a secured EMR (Electronic Medical Record) more efficiently from these simulations.

Control and application of minimally-actuated underwater vehicles

Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle capable of observing temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we examine the utility of Lagrangian profiling floats for such extended deployments. We propose a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to facilitate a basic level of autonomy to achieve general control of this minimally-actuated underwater vehicle. We extend experimentally validated techniques for utilising ocean current models to control under-actuated autonomous underwater vehicles by presenting this investigation into the application of these methods on profiling floats. With the appropriate vertical actuation, and utilising spatiotemporal variations in water speed and direction, we show that broad controllability results can be met. First, we apply an A* planner to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents. This computes a path between start and goal waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution over a given duration. The computed depth plan is generated with a model predictive controller, and selects the depths for the vehicle so that ambient currents guide it toward the goal. Mission constraints are included to simulate and motivate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA USA, that show surprising results in the ability of a drifting vehicle to maintain a prescribed course and reach a desired location.

PLDA based speaker verification with weighted LDA techniques

This paper investigates the use of the dimensionality-reduction techniques weighted linear discriminant analysis (WLDA), and weighted median fisher discriminant analysis (WMFD), before probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) modeling for the purpose of improving speaker verification performance in the presence of high inter-session variability. Recently it was shown that WLDA techniques can provide improvement over traditional linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for channel compensation in i-vector based speaker verification systems. We show in this paper that the speaker discriminative information that is available in the distance between pair of speakers clustered in the development i-vector space can also be exploited in heavy-tailed PLDA modeling by using the weighted discriminant approaches prior to PLDA modeling. Based upon the results presented within this paper using the NIST 2008 Speaker Recognition Evaluation dataset, we believe that WLDA and WMFD projections before PLDA modeling can provide an improved approach when compared to uncompensated PLDA modeling for i-vector based speaker verification systems.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Through the viewfinder : using multimedia techniques to engage Latino youth in community planning

This chapter reviews common barriers to community engagement for Latino youth and suggests ways to move beyond those barriers by empowering them to communicate their experiences, address the challenges they face, and develop recommendations for making their community more youth-friendly. As a case study, this chapter describes a program called Youth FACE IT (Youth Fostering Active Community Engagement for Integration and Transformation)in Boulder County, Colorado. The program enables Latino youth to engage in critical dialogue and participate in a community-based initiative. The chapter concludes by explaining specific strategies that planners can use to support active community engagement and develop a future generation of planners and engaged community members that reflects emerging demographics.

Numerical techniques for the variable order time fractional diffusion equation

In this paper we consider the variable order time fractional diffusion equation. We adopt the Coimbra variable order (VO) time fractional operator, which defines a consistent method for VO differentiation of physical variables. The Coimbra variable order fractional operator also can be viewed as a Caputo-type definition. Although this definition is the most appropriate definition having fundamental characteristics that are desirable for physical modeling, numerical methods for fractional partial differential equations using this definition have not yet appeared in the literature. Here an approximate scheme is first proposed. The stability, convergence and solvability of this numerical scheme are discussed via the technique of Fourier analysis. Numerical examples are provided to show that the numerical method is computationally efficient. Crown Copyright © 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sustainable Road Management in Texas : network-level flexible pavement structural condition analysis using data mining techniques

The research team recognized the value of network-level Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) testing to evaluate the structural condition trends of flexible pavements. However, practical limitations due to the cost of testing, traffic control and safety concerns and the ability to test a large network may discourage some agencies from conducting the network-level FWD testing. For this reason, the surrogate measure of the Structural Condition Index (SCI) is suggested for use. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and to develop a prediction method of the structural condition trends for network-level applications which does not require FWD testing. The research team first evaluated the existing and historical pavement condition, distress, ride, traffic and other data attributes in the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Pavement Maintenance Information System (PMIS), applied data mining strategies to the data, discovered useful patterns and knowledge for SCI value prediction, and finally provided a reasonable measure of pavement structural condition which is correlated to the SCI. To evaluate the performance of the developed prediction approach, a case study was conducted using the SCI data calculated from the FWD data collected on flexible pavements over a 5-year period (2005 – 09) from 354 PMIS sections representing 37 pavement sections on the Texas highway system. The preliminary study results showed that the proposed approach can be used as a supportive pavement structural index in the event when FWD deflection data is not available and help pavement managers identify the timing and appropriate treatment level of preventive maintenance activities.