The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Assessing the threshold temperatures among different age and cause-of-deaths

The relationship between temperature and mortality is non-linear and the effect estimates depend on the threshold temperatures selected. However, little is known about whether threshold temperatures differ with age or cause of deaths in the Southern Hemisphere. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear models to assess the threshold temperatures for mortality from all ages (Dall), aged from 15 to 64 (D15-64), 65- 84(D65-84), ≥85 years (D85+), respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2004. We examined both hot and cold thresholds, and the lags of up to 15 days for cold effects and 3 days for hot effects. Results show that for the current day, the cold threshold was 20°C and the hot threshold was 28°C for the groups of Dall, D15-64 and D85+. The cold threshold was higher (23°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (21°C) for the group of CVD. The hot threshold was higher (29°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (27°C) for the group of RD. Compared to the current day, for the cold effects of up to 15-day lags, the threshold was lower for the group of D15-64, and the thresholds were higher for the groups of D65-84, D85+, RD and CVD; while for the hot effects of 3-day lags, the threshold was higher for the group of D15-64 and the thresholds were lower for the groups of D65-84 and RD. Temperature thresholds appeared to differ with age and death categories. The elderly and deaths from RD and CVD were more sensitive to temperature stress than the adult group. These findings may have implications in the assessment of temperature-related mortality and development of weather/health warning systems.

On algebraic immunity and annihilators

Algebraic immunity AI(f) defined for a boolean function f measures the resistance of the function against algebraic attacks. Currently known algorithms for computing the optimal annihilator of f and AI(f) are inefficient. This work consists of two parts. In the first part, we extend the concept of algebraic immunity. In particular, we argue that a function f may be replaced by another boolean function f^c called the algebraic complement of f. This motivates us to examine AI(f ^c ). We define the extended algebraic immunity of f as AI *(f)= min {AI(f), AI(f^c )}. We prove that 0≤AI(f)–AI *(f)≤1. Since AI(f)–AI *(f)= 1 holds for a large number of cases, the difference between AI(f) and AI *(f) cannot be ignored in algebraic attacks. In the second part, we link boolean functions to hypergraphs so that we can apply known results in hypergraph theory to boolean functions. This not only allows us to find annihilators in a fast and simple way but also provides a good estimation of the upper bound on AI *(f).

Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Can estimates of antimalarial efficacy from field studies be improved?

Monitoring therapeutic efficacy of antimalarial drugs is important because treatment failure rates are the primary basis for changing antimalarial treatment policy. An important aspect of efficacy studies is the use of PCR genotyping to distinguish recrudescent from new infections. The conclusions reached using this technique might be misleading if there is insufficient parasite diversity or a non-uniform haplotype frequency distribution in the study area. Statistical techniques can be used to overcome this problem, but only when data describing the haplotype frequency distribution are available. Therefore, assessing haplotype frequency and distribution should form an integral part of all studies investigating the therapeutic efficacy of antimalarial treatment regimes.

A case study in flood fatality : Beijing July 2012 flood

Background The aim of this study is to examine the flood fatality with a view to identifying risks which may inform public policy responses to future flood. On July 21st, 2012, Beijing suffered the heaviest rain since 1963. The average rainfall was 215 mm over a 24 hour period in the central city (301mm in Fangshan District). The rain resulted in a flood that caused severe health, social and financial impact. Results This flood caused 79 deaths. Of the 71 deaths for which a specific cause could be identified, 5 were rescue team members, 42 were killed by drowning (11 in the car), and the others by electricity shock, fallen house, falling items and lightning. The total financial cost was estimated to be US$ 1.7 billion. The causations of the deaths inform the risks associated with the flood. Discussion This flood had a catastrophic impact on Beijing, mainly due to the intensity of the rain (the rain was the heaviest in the modern Beijing history; possibly due to global warming and urban heat island effect), the vulnerability of the infrastructure (poor standards of drainage, disorganized water management systems and decreased permeability of the earth as a result of the city’s rapid development), and the capacity of the response system (mainly dependent on the awareness of the citizens, warning systems and the capacity of the emergency rescue). Implication Many risk management measures have been implemented as a result of this flood, including water level warning marks, flood safety education and warnings sent to mobile phones, a project to move about 74,500 farmers away from the flood-prone areas within 5 years. However, further measures targeted at the fundamental issues identified by this analysis are necessary, especially those targeting at health issues. These may include better planning, improved drainage systems and ecological development to increase permeability etc..

Facial emotion modulates the neural mechanisms responsible for short interval time perception

Emotionally arousing events can distort our sense of time. We used mixed block/event-related fMRI design to establish the neural basis for this effect. Nineteen participants were asked to judge whether angry, happy and neutral facial expressions that varied in duration (from 400 to 1,600 ms) were closer in duration to either a short or long duration they learnt previously. Time was overestimated for both angry and happy expressions compared to neutral expressions. For faces presented for 700 ms, facial emotion modulated activity in regions of the timing network Wiener et al. (NeuroImage 49(2):1728–1740, 2010) namely the right supplementary motor area (SMA) and the junction of the right inferior frontal gyrus and anterior insula (IFG/AI). Reaction times were slowest when faces were displayed for 700 ms indicating increased decision making difficulty. Taken together with existing electrophysiological evidence Ng et al. (Neuroscience, doi: 10.3389/fnint.2011.00077, 2011), the effects are consistent with the idea that facial emotion moderates temporal decision making and that the right SMA and right IFG/AI are key neural structures responsible for this effect.

Curiosity driven reinforcement learning for motion planning on humanoids

Most previous work on artificial curiosity (AC) and intrinsic motivation focuses on basic concepts and theory. Experimental results are generally limited to toy scenarios, such as navigation in a simulated maze, or control of a simple mechanical system with one or two degrees of freedom. To study AC in a more realistic setting, we embody a curious agent in the complex iCub humanoid robot. Our novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework consists of a state-of-the-art, low-level, reactive control layer, which controls the iCub while respecting constraints, and a high-level curious agent, which explores the iCub's state-action space through information gain maximization, learning a world model from experience, controlling the actual iCub hardware in real-time. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ever embodied, curious agent for real-time motion planning on a humanoid. We demonstrate that it can learn compact Markov models to represent large regions of the iCub's configuration space, and that the iCub explores intelligently, showing interest in its physical constraints as well as in objects it finds in its environment.

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

Background Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. Objectives We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Discussion Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Conclusions Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change.

An investigation of the effect of some stable nitroxide antioxidants in prostate cancer cells

The risk of prostate cancer and disease progression may potentially be increased by oxidative stress. This project examined the stability of nitroxide antioxidants and their effects on cell growth, survival and gene regulation in prostate cancer cells. The novel nitroxide, CTMIO, synthesised here at QUT, was found to have minimal toxicity and modulated the expression of a subset of oxidative stress and antioxidant-related genes distinct from those regulated by a related derivative. This study has provided a step forward in our understanding of the mechanism of action of nitroxides within cells.

Achieving intention-centric BPM through automated planning

As a result of the more distributed nature of organisations and the inherently increasing complexity of their business processes, a significant effort is required for the specification and verification of those processes. The composition of the activities into a business process that accomplishes a specific organisational goal has primarily been a manual task. Automated planning is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) in which activities are selected and organised by anticipating their expected outcomes with the aim of achieving some goal. As such, automated planning would seem to be a natural fit to the BPM domain to automate the specification of control flow. A number of attempts have been made to apply automated planning to the business process and service composition domain in different stages of the BPM lifecycle. However, a unified adoption of these techniques throughout the BPM lifecycle is missing. As such, we propose a new intention-centric BPM paradigm, which aims on minimising the specification effort by exploiting automated planning techniques to achieve a pre-stated goal. This paper provides a vision on the future possibilities of enhancing BPM using automated planning. A research agenda is presented, which provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges for the exploitation of automated planning in BPM.

Analysing student programs in the PHP intelligent tutoring system

Programming is a subject that many beginning students find difficult. The PHP Intelligent Tutoring System (PHP ITS) has been designed with the aim of making it easier for novices to learn the PHP language in order to develop dynamic web pages. Programming requires practice. This makes it necessary to include practical exercises in any ITS that supports students learning to program. The PHP ITS works by providing exercises for students to solve and then providing feedback based on their solutions. The major challenge here is to be able to identify many semantically equivalent solutions to a single exercise. The PHP ITS achieves this by using theories of Artificial Intelligence (AI) including first-order predicate logic and classical and hierarchical planning to model the subject matter taught by the system. This paper highlights the approach taken by the PHP ITS to analyse students’ programs that include a number of program constructs that are used by beginners of web development. The PHP ITS was built using this model and evaluated in a unit at the Queensland University of Technology. The results showed that it was capable of correctly analysing over 96 % of the solutions to exercises supplied by students.

Enhanced chondrogenesis of human nasal septum derived progenitors on nanofibrous scaffolds

Topographical cues can be exploited to regulate stem cell attachment, proliferation, differentiation and function in vitro and in vivo. In this study, we aimed to investigate the influence of different nanofibrous topographies on the chondrogenic differentiation potential of nasal septum derived progenitors (NSP) in vitro. Aligned and randomly oriented Ploy (L-lactide) (PLLA)/Polycaprolactone (PCL) hybrid scaffolds were fabricated via electrospinning. First, scaffolds were fully characterized, and then NSP were seeded on them to study their capacity to support stem cell attachment, proliferation and chondrogenic differentiation. Compared to randomly oriented nanofibers, aligned scaffolds showed a high degree of nanofiber alignment with much better tensile strength properties. Both scaffolds supported NSP adhesion, proliferation and chondrogenic differentiation. Despite the higher rate of cell proliferation on random scaffolds, a better chondrogenic differentiation was observed on aligned nanofibers as deduced from higher expression of chondrogenic markers such as collagen type II and aggrecan on aligned scaffolds. These findings demonstrate that electrospun constructs maintain NSP proliferation and differentiation, and that the aligned nanofibrous scaffolds can significantly enhance chondrogenic differentiation of nasal septum derived progenitors

Effect of water management practice on pesticide behavior in paddy water

The fate and transport of three herbicides commonly used in rice production in Japan were compared using two water management practices. The herbicides were simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet. The first management practice was an intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system (AI) with a high drainage gate and the second one was a continuous irrigation and overflow drainage scheme (CI) in experimental paddy fields. Dissipation of the herbicides appeared to follow first order kinetics with the half-lives (DT₅₀) of 1.6-3.4 days and the DT₉₀ (90% dissipation) of 7.4-9.8 days. The AI scheme had little drainage even during large rainfall events thus resulting in losses of less than 4% of each applied herbicide through runoff. Meanwhile the CI scheme resulted in losses of about 37%, 12% and 35% of the applied masses of simetryn, thiobencarb and mefenacet, respectively. The intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate saved irrigation water and prevented herbicide runoff whereas the continuous irrigation and overflow scheme resulted in significant losses of water as well as the herbicides. Maintaining the excess water storage is important for preventing paddy water runoff during significant rainfall events. The organic carbon partition coefficient K_oc seems to be a strong indicator of the aquatic fate of the herbicide as compared to the water solubility (S_W). However, further investigations are required to understand the relation between K_oc and the agricultural practices upon the pesticide fate and transport. An extension of the water holding period up to 10 days after herbicide application based on the DT₉₀ from the currently specified period of 3-4 days in Japan is recommended to be a good agricultural practice for controlling the herbicide runoff from paddy fields. Also, the best water management practice, which can be recommended for use during the water holding period, is the intermittent irrigation scheme using an automatic irrigation system with a high drainage gate. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the dissipation of two herbicides using micro paddy lysimeters

A set of packed micro paddy lysimeters, placed in a greenhouse, was used to simulate the dissipation of two herbicides, simetryn and thiobencarb, in a controlled environment. Data from a field monitoring study in 2003, including the soil condition and water balances, were used in the simulation. The herbicides were applied and monitored over a period of 21 d. The water balances under two water management scenarios, intermittent irrigation management (AI) and continuous irrigation management (CI), were simulated. In the AI scenario, the pattern of herbicide dissipation in the surface water of the field were simulated, following the first-order kinetics. In the CI scenario, similarity was observed in most lysimeter and field concentrations, but there were differences in some data points. Dissipation curves of both herbicides in the surface water of the two simulated scenarios were not significantly different (P > 0.05) from the field data except for intercept of the thiobencarb curve in the CI scenario. The distribution of simetryn and thiobencarb in the soil profile after simulation were also similar to the field data. The highest concentrations of both herbicides were found on the topsoil layer at 0-2.5 cm depth. Only a small amount of herbicides moved down to the deeper soil layers. Micro paddy lysimeters are thus a good alternative for the dissipation study of pesticides in the paddy environment.