Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Author responsibilities in improving the quality of peer reviews: A rejoinder to Iivari (2016)

In this rejoinder to Iivari (2016), I discuss authors’ responsibilities in the process of ensuring quality reviews. I argue that one overlooked element in quality peer reviewing is authors’ unconstrained right to submit manuscripts in whatever form or quality they desire. As such, I suggest adding some constraints and offering more freedom to reviewers to maintain viability of the scholarly publication system. I offer three responses to Iivari’s suggestions and add two further suggestions for change.

Persistent organic pollutants in matched breast milk and infant faeces samples

Assessing blood concentration of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in infants is difficult due to the ethical and practical difficulties in obtaining sufficient quantities of blood. To determine whether measuring POPs in faeces might reflect blood concentration during infancy, we measured the concentrations of a range of POPs (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs)) in a pilot study using matched breast milk and infant faecal samples obtained from ten mother-child pairs. All infants were breast fed, with 8 of them also receiving solid food at the time of faecal sampling. In this small dataset faecal concentrations (range 0.01-41ngg-1 lipid) are strongly associated with milk concentrations (range 0.02-230ngg-1 lipid). Associations with other factors generally could not be detected in this dataset, with the exception of a small effect of age or growth. Different sources (external or internal) of exposure appeared to directly influence faecal concentrations of different chemicals based on different inter-individual variability in the faeces-to-milk concentration ratio Rfm. Overall, the matrix of faeces as an external measure of internal exposure in infants looks promising for some chemicals and is worth assessing further in larger datasets.

Multiphase porous media model for Intermittent Microwave Convective Drying (IMCD) of food

Intermittent microwave convective (IMCD) drying is an advanced drying technology that improves both energy efficiency and food quality during the drying of food materials. Despite numerous experimental studies available for IMCD, there is no complete multiphase porous media model available to describe the process. A multiphase porous media model considering liquid water, gases and the solid matrix inside the food during drying can provide in depth understanding of IMCD. In this article, firstly a multiphase porous media model was developed for IMCD. Then the model is validated against experimental data by comparing moisture content and temperature distributions after each heating and tempering periods. The profile of vapour pressures and evaporation during IMCD are presented and discussed. The relative contribution of water and vapour fluxes due to gas pressure and diffusion demonstrated that the fluxes due are relatively higher in IMCD compared to convection drying and this makes the IMCD faster.

Afatinib versus cisplatin-based chemotherapy for EGFR mutation-positive lung adenocarcinoma (LUX-Lung 3 and LUX-Lung 6): analysis of overall survival data from two randomised, phase 3 trials

Background We aimed to assess the effect of afatinib on overall survival of patients with EGFR mutation-positive lung adenocarcinoma through an analysis of data from two open-label, randomised, phase 3 trials. Methods Previously untreated patients with EGFR mutation-positive stage IIIB or IV lung adenocarcinoma were enrolled in LUX-Lung 3 (n=345) and LUX-Lung 6 (n=364). These patients were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive afatinib or chemotherapy (pemetrexed-cisplatin [LUX-Lung 3] or gemcitabine-cisplatin [LUX-Lung 6]), stratified by EGFR mutation (exon 19 deletion [del19], Leu858Arg, or other) and ethnic origin (LUX-Lung 3 only). We planned analyses of mature overall survival data in the intention-to-treat population after 209 (LUX-Lung 3) and 237 (LUX-Lung 6) deaths. These ongoing studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00949650 and NCT01121393. Findings Median follow-up in LUX-Lung 3 was 41 months (IQR 35–44); 213 (62%) of 345 patients had died. Median follow-up in LUX-Lung 6 was 33 months (IQR 31–37); 246 (68%) of 364 patients had died. In LUX-Lung 3, median overall survival was 28·2 months (95% CI 24·6–33·6) in the afatinib group and 28·2 months (20·7–33·2) in the pemetrexed-cisplatin group (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·66–1·17, p=0·39). In LUX-Lung 6, median overall survival was 23·1 months (95% CI 20·4–27·3) in the afatinib group and 23·5 months (18·0–25·6) in the gemcitabine-cisplatin group (HR 0·93, 95% CI 0·72–1·22, p=0·61). However, in preplanned analyses, overall survival was significantly longer for patients with del19-positive tumours in the afatinib group than in the chemotherapy group in both trials: in LUX-Lung 3, median overall survival was 33·3 months (95% CI 26·8–41·5) in the afatinib group versus 21·1 months (16·3–30·7) in the chemotherapy group (HR 0·54, 95% CI 0·36–0·79, p=0·0015); in LUX-Lung 6, it was 31·4 months (95% CI 24·2–35·3) versus 18·4 months (14·6–25·6), respectively (HR 0·64, 95% CI 0·44–0·94, p=0·023). By contrast, there were no significant differences by treatment group for patients with EGFR Leu858Arg-positive tumours in either trial: in LUX-Lung 3, median overall survival was 27·6 months (19·8–41·7) in the afatinib group versus 40·3 months (24·3–not estimable) in the chemotherapy group (HR 1·30, 95% CI 0·80–2·11, p=0·29); in LUX-Lung 6, it was 19·6 months (95% CI 17·0–22·1) versus 24·3 months (19·0–27·0), respectively (HR 1·22, 95% CI 0·81–1·83, p=0·34). In both trials, the most common afatinib-related grade 3–4 adverse events were rash or acne (37 [16%] of 229 patients in LUX-Lung 3 and 35 [15%] of 239 patients in LUX-Lung 6), diarrhoea (33 [14%] and 13 [5%]), paronychia (26 [11%] in LUX-Lung 3 only), and stomatitis or mucositis (13 [5%] in LUX-Lung 6 only). In LUX-Lung 3, neutropenia (20 [18%] of 111 patients), fatigue (14 [13%]) and leucopenia (nine [8%]) were the most common chemotherapy-related grade 3–4 adverse events, while in LUX-Lung 6, the most common chemotherapy-related grade 3–4 adverse events were neutropenia (30 [27%] of 113 patients), vomiting (22 [19%]), and leucopenia (17 [15%]). Interpretation Although afatinib did not improve overall survival in the whole population of either trial, overall survival was improved with the drug for patients with del19 EGFR mutations. The absence of an effect in patients with Leu858Arg EGFR mutations suggests that EGFR del19-positive disease might be distinct from Leu858Arg-positive disease and that these subgroups should be analysed separately in future trials.

A review on green building in Vietnam

Following market reforms in 1986 Vietnam has transformed from a poor closed economy to a low middle income economy. Like other developing countries, economic growth has placed significant pressure on both infrastructure and environment, particularly the pressure of increasing housing demand, energy consumption, and waste and pollution management. In response to the development challenges and the green movement globally, the government has initiated actions to promote green building to promote more sustainable development. However, green building adoption in Vietnam is still criticised as being slow and lacking governmental support. This paper proposes that promoting green building could solve three inter-connected challenges hindering sustainable development, and provides a comparative review of progress.

Scheduling tools to reduce the cost of cane railway transport

Cane railway systems provide empty bins for harvesters to fill and full bins of cane for the factory to process. These operations need to be conducted in a timely fashion to minimise delays to harvesters and the factory and to minimise the cut-to-crush delay, while also minimising the cost of providing this service. A range of tools has been provided over the years to assist in this process. This paper reviews the objectives of the cane transport system and the tools available to achieve those objectives. The facilities within these tools to assist in the control of costs are highlighted.