Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure (BP) in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Mean systolic BP (SBP) estimates by age and sex were obtained from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey adult data. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in 2000. Monte Carlo simulation modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa Subjects Adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and other cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results High BP was estimated to have caused 46 888 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 44 878 - 48 566) or 9% (95% uncertainty interval 8.6 - 9.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000, and 390 860 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 377 955 - 402 256) or 2.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.3 - 2.5%) in South Africa in 2000. Overall, 50% of stroke, 42% of IHD, 72% of hypertensive disease and 22% of other CVD burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high BP (systolic BP ≥ 115 mmHg). Conclusions High BP contributes to a considerable burden of CVD in South Africa and results indicate that there is considerable potential for health gain from implementing BP-lowering interventions that are known to be highly costeffective.

Relocating a flood-affected community : good planning or good politics?

Problem, research strategy and findings: On January 10, 2011, the town of Grantham, Queensland (Australia), was inundated with a flash flood in which 12 of the town's 370 residents drowned. The overall damage bill in Queensland was AUD∃2.38 billion (USD∃2.4 billion) with 35 deaths, and more than three-quarters of the state was declared a flood disaster zone. In this study, we focus on the unusual and even rare decision to relocate Grantham in March 2011. The Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) acquired a 377-hectare (932-acre) site to enable a voluntary swap of equivalent-sized lots. In addition, planning regulations were set aside to streamline the relocation of a portion of the town. We review the natural hazard literature as it relates to community relocation, state and local government documents related to Grantham, and reports and newspaper articles related to the flood. We also analyze data from interviews with key stakeholders. We document the process of community relocation, assess the relocation process in Grantham against best practice, examine whether the process of community relocation can be upscaled and if the Grantham relocation is an example of good planning or good politics. Takeaway for practice: Our study reveals two key messages for practice. Community relocation (albeit a small one) is possible, and the process can be done quickly; some Grantham residents moved into their new, relocated homes in December 2012, just 11 months after the flood. Moreover, the role of existing planning regulations can be a hindrance to quick action; political leadership, particularly at the local level, is key to implementing the relocation.

An examination of isotherm generation : impact of bottle-point method upon potassium ion exchange with strong acid cation resin

This paper relates to the importance of impact of the chosen bottle-point method when conducting ion exchange equilibria experiments. As an illustration, potassium ion exchange with strong acid cation resin was investigated due to its relevance to the treatment of various industrial effluents and groundwater. The “constant mass” bottle-point method was shown to be problematic in that depending upon the resin mass used the equilibrium isotherm profiles were different. Indeed, application of common equilibrium isotherm models revealed that the optimal fit could be with either the Freundlich or Temkin equations, depending upon the conditions employed. It could be inferred that the resin surface was heterogeneous in character, but precise conclusions regarding the variation in the heat of sorption were not possible. Estimation of the maximum potassium loading was also inconsistent when employing the “constant mass” method. The “constant concentration” bottle-point method illustrated that the Freundlich model was a good representation of the exchange process. The isotherms recorded were relatively consistent when compared to the “constant mass” approach. Unification of all the equilibrium isotherm data acquired was achieved by use of the Langmuir Vageler expression. The maximum loading of potassium ions was predicted to be at least 116.5 g/kg resin.

Complexity and high-end computing in biology and medicine

Biomedical systems involve a large number of entities and intricate interactions between these. Their direct analysis is, therefore, difficult, and it is often necessary to rely on computational models. These models require significant resources and parallel computing solutions. These approaches are particularly suited, given parallel aspects in the nature of biomedical systems. Model hybridisation also permits the integration and simultaneous study of multiple aspects and scales of these systems, thus providing an efficient platform for multidisciplinary research.

Collaborative learning model of infrastructure construction: A capability perspective

Purpose Performance heterogeneity between collaborative infrastructure projects is typically examined by considering procurement systems and their governance mechanisms at static points in time. The literature neglects to consider the impact of dynamic learning capability, which is thought to reconfigure governance mechanisms over time in response to evolving market conditions. This conceptual paper proposes a new model to show how continuous joint learning of participant organisations improves project performance. Design/methodology/approach There are two stages of conceptual development. In the first stage, the management literature is analysed to explain the Standard Model of dynamic learning capability that emphasises three learning phases for organisations. This Standard Model is extended to derive a novel Circular Model of dynamic learning capability that shows a new feedback loop between performance and learning. In the second stage, the construction management literature is consulted, adding project lifecycle, stakeholder diversity and three organisational levels to the analysis, to arrive at the Collaborative Model of dynamic learning capability. Findings The Collaborative Model should enable construction organisations to successfully adapt and perform under changing market conditions. The complexity of learning cycles results in capabilities that are imperfectly imitable between organisations, explaining performance heterogeneity on projects. Originality/value The Collaborative Model provides a theoretically substantiated description of project performance, driven by the evolution of procurement systems and governance mechanisms. The Model’s empirical value will be tested in future research.

Characterization of alluvial formation by stochastic modelling of paleo-fluvial processes: The concept and method

Modelling fluvial processes is an effective way to reproduce basin evolution and to recreate riverbed morphology. However, due to the complexity of alluvial environments, deterministic modelling of fluvial processes is often impossible. To address the related uncertainties, we derive a stochastic fluvial process model on the basis of the convective Exner equation that uses the statistics (mean and variance) of river velocity as input parameters. These statistics allow for quantifying the uncertainty in riverbed topography, river discharge and position of the river channel. In order to couple the velocity statistics and the fluvial process model, the perturbation method is employed with a non-stationary spectral approach to develop the Exner equation as two separate equations: the first one is the mean equation, which yields the mean sediment thickness, and the second one is the perturbation equation, which yields the variance of sediment thickness. The resulting solutions offer an effective tool to characterize alluvial aquifers resulting from fluvial processes, which allows incorporating the stochasticity of the paleoflow velocity.

Tracking adversarial targets

We study linear control problems with quadratic losses and adversarially chosen tracking targets. We present an efficient algorithm for this problem and show that, under standard conditions on the linear system, its regret with respect to an optimal linear policy grows as O(log^2 T), where T is the number of rounds of the game. We also study a problem with adversarially chosen transition dynamics; we present an exponentiallyweighted average algorithm for this problem, and we give regret bounds that grow as O(sqtr p T).

Factors potentiating the risk of sudden infant death syndrome associated with the prone position

Background. In several studies the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) has been significantly associated with sleeping in the prone position. It is not known how the prone position increases the risk of SIDS. Methods. We analyzed data from a case-control study (58 infants with SIDS and 120 control infants) and a prospective cohort study (22 infants with SIDS and 213 control infants) in Tasmania. Interactions were examined in matched analyses with a multiplicative model of interaction. Results. In the case-control study, SIDS was significantly associated with sleeping in the prone position, as compared with other positions (unadjusted odds ratio, 4.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.1 to 9.6). The strength of this association was increased among infants who slept on natural-fiber mattresses (P = 0.05), infants who were swaddled (P = 0.09), infants who slept in heated rooms (P = 0.006), and infants who had had a recent illness (P = 0.02). These variables had no significant effect on infants who did not sleep in the prone position. A history of recent illness was significantly associated with SIDS among infants who slept prone (odds ratio, 5.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.8 to 19) but not among infants who slept in other positions (odds ratio, 0.83). In the cohort study, the risk of SIDS was greater among infants who slept prone on natural-fiber mattresses (odds ratio, 6.6; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 33) than among infants who slept prone on other types of mattresses (odds ratio, 1.8). Conclusions. When infants sleep prone, the elevated risk of SIDS is increased by each of four factors: the use of natural-fiber mattresses, swaddling, recent illness, and the use of heating in bedrooms.

Age-related alterations in immunoreactive pancreatic lipase and cationic trypsinogen in young children with cystic fibrosis

Serum immunoreactive pancreatic lipase and cationic trypsinogen are elevated in young infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) and may be useful neonatal screening tests for CF. We compared lipase measured by a recently developed ELISA immunoassay with trypsinogen measured by radioimmunoassay in 70 children (ages 0.1 to 9.9 years) with CF who had various degrees of pancreatic dysfunction and in 79 similarly aged children without CF (controls). In the control children, lipase activity increased with advancing age, whereas trypsinogen showed no age-related trend. Lipase and trypsinogen were significantly elevated in the infants with CF who were younger than 1 year, irrespective of pancreatic function (trypsinogen, P<0.001; lipase, P<0.05). Sensitivities in detecting CF were 76% and 90% for lipase and trypsinogen, respectively. After the first year of life, lipase and trypsinogen values declined toward normal, the rate of decline of lipase being greater than that of trypsinogen; 67% of lipase values were within or below the normal range by 3 years, whereas 67% of trypsinogen values continued to be elevated. We conclude that trypsinogen is an excellent screening test for CF in young infants regardless of pancreatic function, and that the addition of a serum pancreatic lipase determination does not improve the accuracy of trypsinogen as a screening test for cystic fibrosis.

Modelling end-of-life care practices: Factors associated with critical care nurse engagement in care provision

Objective To identify factors associated with critical care nurses’ engagement in end-of-life care practices. Methods Multivariable regression modelling was undertaken on 392 responses to an online self-report survey of end-of-life care practices and factors influencing practice by Australian critical care nurses’. Univariate general linear models were built for six end-of-life care practice areas. Results Six statistically significant (p < 0.001) models were developed: Information sharing F(3, 377) = 40.53, adjusted R2 23.8%; Environmental modification F(5, 380) = 19.55, adjusted R2 19.4%; Emotional support F(10, 366) = 12.10, adjusted R2 22.8%; Patient and family centred decision making F(8, 362) = 17.61 adjusted R2 26.4%; Symptom management F(8, 376) = 7.10, adjusted R2 11.3%; and Spiritual support F(9, 367) = 14.66, adjusted R2 24.6%. Stronger agreement with values consistent with a palliative approach, and greater support for patient and family preferences were associated with higher levels of engagement in end-of-life care practices. Higher levels of preparedness and access to opportunities for knowledge acquisition were associated with engagement in the interpersonal practices of patient and family centred decision making and emotional support. Conclusion This study provides evidence for interventions to address factors associated with nurse engagement to increase participation in all end-of-life care practice areas.

Assessment of signs of foot infection in diabetes patients using photographic foot imaging and infrared thermography

Background Patients with diabetic foot disease require frequent screening to prevent complications and may be helped through telemedical home monitoring. Within this context, the goal was to determine the validity and reliability of assessing diabetic foot infection using photographic foot imaging and infrared thermography. Subjects and Methods For 38 patients with diabetes who presented with a foot infection or were admitted to the hospital with a foot-related complication, photographs of the plantar foot surface using a photographic imaging device and temperature data from six plantar regions using an infrared thermometer were obtained. A temperature difference between feet of > 2.2 °C defined a ''hotspot.'' Two independent observers assessed each foot for presence of foot infection, both live (using the Perfusion-Extent-Depth- Infection-Sensation classification) and from photographs 2 and 4 weeks later (for presence of erythema and ulcers). Agreement in diagnosis between live assessment and (the combination of ) photographic assessment and temperature recordings was calculated. Results Diagnosis of infection from photographs was specific (> 85%) but not very sensitive (< 60%). Diagnosis based on hotspots present was sensitive (> 90%) but not very specific (<25%). Diagnosis based on the combination of photographic and temperature assessments was both sensitive (> 60%) and specific (> 79%). Intra-observer agreement between photographic assessments was good (Cohen's j = 0.77 and 0.52 for both observers). Conclusions Diagnosis of foot infection in patients with diabetes seems valid and reliable using photographic imaging in combination with infrared thermography. This supports the intended use of these modalities for the home monitoring of high-risk patients with diabetes to facilitate early diagnosis of signs of foot infection.

The High Places [Review]

Sarah Holland-Batt reviews 'The High Places' by Fiona McFarlane

Grand challenges for public health

What is the future for public health in the twenty-first century? Can we glean an idea about the future of public health from its past? As Winston Churchill once said: ‘[T]he further backward you look, the further forward you can see.’ What can we see in the history of public health that gives us an idea of where public health might be headed in the future? (Gruszin et al. 2012). In the twentieth century there was substantial progress in public health in Australia. These improvements were brought about through a number of factors. In part, improvements were due to increasing knowledge about the natural history of disease and its treatment. Added to this knowledge was a shifting focus from legislative measures to protect health, to the emergence of improved promotion and prevention strategies, and a general improvement in social and economic conditions for people living in countries such as Australia. Gruszin et al. (2012) consider the range of social and economic reforms of the twentieth century as the most important determinants of the public’s health at the start of the twenty-first century (Gruszin et al. 2012 p 201). The same could not, however, be said for second or third world countries, many of whom have the most fundamental of sanitary and health protection issues still to deal with. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa and in Russia the decline in life expectancy can be said to be related to a range of interconnected factors. In Russia, issues such as alcoholism, violence, suicide, accidents and cardiovascular disease could be contributing to the falling life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007). In sub-Saharan Africa, a range of factors, such as HIV/AIDS, poverty, malaria, tuberculosis, undernutrition, totally inadequate infrastructure, gender inequality, conflict and violence, political taboos and a complete lack of political will, have all contributed to a dramatic drop in life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007).