Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Mechanisms of change in psychotherapy for people diagnosed with schizophrenia : the role of narrative reflexivity in promoting recovery

Narrative reflexivity was investigated as a potential mechanism of therapeutic change during a 12 - 18 month trial of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy for people diagnosed with schizophrenia. Participants were nine adult clients (8 male, 1 female) aged between 25-65 years (M = 44, SD = 12.76) with a diagnosis of schizophrenia consistent with DSM-IV criteria and seven female provisional psychologists aged between 25-29 years (M = 26.8 years, SD = 1.47 years). Recovery and narrative reflexivity were measured at three time points using the Recovery Assessment Scale (RAS) and the Narrative Processes Coding System (NPCS). Results were reported descriptively due to limited sample size (n = 9). The majority of clients (n = 7) reported an increase in recovery over the course of treatment. For six clients, an overall increase in recovery was associated with an increase in narrative reflexivity. This study provides preliminary support for narrative reflexivity as a potential mechanism of therapeutic change in the psychotherapy of people diagnosed with schizophrenia.

Assessing community resilience to climate change

Settlements and communities in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are highly vulnerable to climate change and face an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. The concept of community resilience is gaining momentum as stakeholders and institutions seek to better understand the social, economic and governance factors which affect community capacity to adapt in the face of climate change. This paper defines a framework to benchmark community resilience and applies it to a case study in the Wet Tropics in tropical Queensland within the GBR catchment. It finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change, particularly in terms of economic vitality, community knowledge, aspirations and capacity for adaptation. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Capacity to manage the possible shocks associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events is emerging and needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. Better information about what actions, policies and arrangements build community resilience and mobilise adaptive capacity in the face of climate change is needed.

Organisational change in public organisations

This research applies a multidimensional model of publicness to the analysis of organisational change and in so doing enriches understanding of the public nature of organisations and how public characteristics facilitate change. Much of the prior literature describes public organisations as bureaucratic, with characteristics that are resistant to change, hierarchical structures that impede information flow, goals that are imposed and scrutinised by political authority and red tape that constrains decision-making. This dissertation instead reports a more complex picture and explains how public characteristics can also work in ways that enable organisational change.

Supine to standing Cobb Angle change in idiopathic scoliosis: The effect of endplate preselection

Introduction Standing radiographs are the ‘gold standard’ for clinical assessment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), with the Cobb Angle used to measure the severity and progression of the scoliotic curve. Supine imaging modalities can provide valuable 3D information on scoliotic anatomy, however, due to changes in gravitational loading direction, the geometry of the spine alters between the supine and standing position which in turn affects the Cobb Angle measurement. Previous studies have consistently reported a 7-10° [1-3] Cobb Angle increase from supine to standing, however, none have reported the effect of endplate pre-selection and which (if any) curve parameters affect the supine to standing Cobb Angle difference. Methods Female AIS patients with right-sided thoracic major curves were included in the retrospective study. Clinically measured Cobb Angles from existing standing coronal radiographs and fulcrum bending radiographs [4] were compared to existing low-dose supine CT scans taken within 3 months of the reference radiograph. Reformatted coronal CT images were used to measure Cobb Angle variability with and without endplate pre-selection (end-plates selected on the radiographs used on the CT images). Inter and intra-observer measurement variability was assessed. Multi-linear regression was used to investigate whether there was a relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and patient characteristics (SPSS, v.21, IBM, USA). Results Fifty-two patients were included, with mean age of 14.6 (SD 1.8) years; all curves were Lenke Type 1 with mean Cobb Angle on supine CT of 42° (SD 6.4°) and 52° (SD 6.7°) on standing radiographs. The mean fulcrum bending Cobb Angle for the group was 22.6° (SD 7.5°). The 10° increase from supine to standing is consistent with existing literature. Pre-selecting vertebral endplates was found to increase the Cobb Angle difference by a mean 2° (range 0-9°). Multi-linear regression revealed a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change with: fulcrum flexibility (p=0.001), age (p=0.027) and standing Cobb Angle (p<0.001). In patients with high fulcrum flexibility scores, the supine to standing Cobb Angle change was as great as 20°.The 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer and inter-observer measurement variability were 3.1° and 3.6°, respectively. Conclusion There is a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and fulcrum flexibility. Therefore, this difference can be considered a measure of spinal flexibility. Pre-selecting vertebral endplates causes only minor changes.

The continuing decline of science and mathematics enrolments in Australian high schools

Is there a crisis in Australian science and mathematics education? Declining enrolments in upper secondary Science and Mathematics courses have gained much attention from the media, politicians and high-profile scientists over the last few years, yet there is no consensus amongst stakeholders about either the nature or the magnitude of the changes. We have collected raw enrolment data from the education departments of each of the Australian states and territories from 1992 to 2012 and analysed the trends for Biology, Chemistry, Physics, two composite subject groups (Earth Sciences and Multidisciplinary Sciences), as well as entry, intermediate and advanced Mathematics. The results of these analyses are discussed in terms of participation rates, raw enrolments and gender balance. We have found that the total number of students in Year 12 increased by around 16% from 1992 to 2012 while the participation rates for most Science and Mathematics subjects, as a proportion of the total Year 12 cohort, fell (Biology (-10%), Chemistry (-5%), Physics (-7%), Multidisciplinary Science (-5%), intermediate Mathematics (-11%), advanced Mathematics (-7%) in the same period. There were increased participation rates in Earth Sciences (+0.3%) and entry Mathematics (+11%). In each case the greatest rates of change occurred prior to 2001 and have been slower and steadier since. We propose that the broadening of curriculum offerings, further driven by students' self-perception of ability and perceptions of subject difficulty and usefulness, are the most likely cause of the changes in participation. While these continuing declines may not amount to a crisis, there is undoubtedly serious cause for concern.

Developing ‘design minds’ for the 21st century through a public sector initiated online design education platform

Education in the 21st century demands a model for understanding a new culture of learning in the face of rapid change, open access data and geographical diversity. Teachers no longer need to provide the latest information because students themselves are taking an active role in peer collectives to help create it. This paper examines, through an Australian case study entitled ‘Design Minds’, the development of an online design education platform as a key initiative to enact a government priority for statewide cultural change through design-based curriculum. Utilising digital technology to create a supportive community, ‘Design Minds’ recognises that interdisciplinary learning fostered through engagement will empower future citizens to think, innovate, and discover. This paper details the participatory design process undertaken with multiple stakeholders to create the platform. It also outlines a proposed research agenda for future measurement of its value in creating a new learning culture, supporting regional and remote communities, and revitalising frontline services. It is anticipated this research will inform ongoing development of the online platform, and future design education and research programs in K-12 schools in Australia.

Comparative analyses of change orders costs in transportation construction

Transportation construction is substantially different from other construction fields due to widespread use of unit price bidding and competitive contract awarding. Thus, the potential for change orders has been the main source of unbalanced bidding for contractors, which can be described as substantial increases in work quantity or reasonable changes to the initial design provided by the State Highway Agencies (SHAs). It is important to understand the causes of the change orders as cost related issues are the main reason for contract disputes. We have analyzed a large dataset from a major SHA to identify project related and environmental factors that affect the change order costs. The results of the study can be instrumental in assessing the increased costs associated with change orders and better management measures can be taken to mitigate their effects.

IT-enabled sustainability transformation—the case of SAP

This teaching case describes how SAP, a leading global information technology (IT) solutions provider, embarked on a large-scale transformation program to implement a dual sustainability strategy of: (a) internally transforming the organization, and (b) addressing a business opportunity by developing IT solutions that enable their customers to become more sustainable. This case provides students with significant information about the development of SAP towards sustainability, including the company's underlying motivation, their approach to change and related challenges, and their use of IT to enable the transformation. The teaching case provides an opportunity to critically examine the benefits and risks of using IT in an effort to improve the sustainability of an organization, and to develop appropriate models for sustainable strategies and IT implementation efforts.

A peaking and tailing approach to education and curriculum renewal for sustainable development

Contextual factors for sustainable development such as population growth, energy, and resource availability and consumption levels, food production yield, and growth in pollution, provide numerous complex and rapidly changing education and training requirements for a variety of professions including engineering. Furthermore, these requirements may not be clearly understood or expressed by designers, governments, professional bodies or the industry. Within this context, this paper focuses on one priority area for greening the economy through sustainable development—improving energy efficiency—and discusses the complexity of capacity building needs for professionals. The paper begins by acknowledging the historical evolution of sustainability considerations, and the complexity embedded in built environment solutions. The authors propose a dual-track approach to building capacity building, with a short-term focus on improvement (i.e., making peaking challenges a priority for postgraduate education), and a long-term focus on transformational innovation (i.e., making tailing challenges a priority for undergraduate education). A case study is provided, of Australian experiences over the last decade with regard to the topic area of energy efficiency. The authors conclude with reflections on implications for the approach.

The renormalization group: A perturbation method for the graduate curriculum

In this paper the renormalization group (RG) method of Chen, Goldenfeld, and Oono [Phys. Rev. Lett., 73 (1994), pp.1311-1315; Phys. Rev. E, 54 (1996), pp.376-394] is presented in a pedagogical way to increase its visibility in applied mathematics and to argue favorably for its incorporation into the corresponding graduate curriculum.The method is illustrated by some linear and nonlinear singular perturbation problems. Key word. © 2012 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Diversity or perversity?: Award-winning children's literature and the Australian curriculum

Two of the three cross-curriculum priorities for the national Australian Curriculum prescribed by the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA) are focussed on what might be called diversity education: “Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander histories and culture”, and "Asia and Australia's Engagement with Asia” (ACARA, “Cross”). One need not be versed in complex rhetorical theory to understand that, laudable and legitimate as such priorities are, their existence implies that mainstream education in Australia has been or is characterised by the marginalisation or erasure of Australia's history—the original Indigenous cultures are not only living and vibrant today, but also have tens of thousands of years’ “head start” on Australia’s settler cultures—and of its geography—Australia is, after all, located in some physical proximity to Asia. Some might even suggest that Australia is in Asia. These temporal and spatial “forgettings” constitute a kind of cultural perversity which the cross-curricular priorities both seek to address and serve to reinscribe. Even as ACARA requires Australian school students to engage with Aboriginal and Asian histories, cultures, societies, they imply that such histories, cultures, and societies are “diverse”, that they are not those of the students in Australian classrooms; producing them as objects of study rather than as lived experience. This should not necessarily be surprising. Michael W. Apple has provocatively argued that: “one of the perverse effects of a national curriculum actually will be to ‘legitimise inequality.’ It may in fact help create the illusion that whatever the massive differences in schools, they all have something in common” (18). In the Australian context, attempts to mitigate such perversity are articulated via the selection of literary texts. As educators move to resource ACARA’s cross-curricular priorities, ACARA notes that “Teachers and schools are best placed to make decisions about the selection of texts in their teaching and learning programs that address the content in the Australian Curriculum while also meeting the needs of the students in their classes” (ACARA, “Advice”). This assertion appears on a webpage called “Advice on selection of literary texts” which is notable first and foremost for its total lack of any literary texts being named, and its list of weblinks pointing to lists of texts compiled elsewhere, by other organisations, and in the main, compiled to serve agendas other than the Australian curriculum. One of the major resources referred to by ACARA for literary text selection is the Children’s Book Council of Australia (CBCA). Of course, the CBCA’s annual book awards do not share ACARA’s educational priorities, but do have a history of being drawn upon by schools as a curriculum resource. In this paper, I consider the literary texts which have been prized by the CBCA in recent years attending to their engagements with Aboriginal cultures.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

The transformation of bureaucracy? Structural change in the Commonwealth public service 1983-93

Commentators have predicted bureaucratic organisations would undergo substantial change as a result of social and economic pressures. We ask whether reforms to the Australian public service over the 1983–93 period exemplify this process. We use the methods of organisational analysis to characterise the direction of change, basing our assessment on the standard structural variables of complexity, formalisation and centralisation, together with a cultural variable. We find evidence that, overall, departments of state in the APS were becoming less bureaucratic in their structure, culture and internal function in the 1983–93 period. However, the effect was not uniform across departments, or unambiguous — formalisation, for example, increased in some respects and decreased in others. Centralisation increased overall, despite devolution of some decision-making.

Emotional climate and high quality learning experiences in science teacher education

The role of emotion during learning encounters in science teacher education is under-researched and under-theorized. In this case study we explore the emotional climates, that is, the collective states of emotional arousal, of a preservice secondary science education class to illuminate practice for producing and reproducing high quality learning experiences for preservice science teachers. Theories related to the sociology of emotions informed our analyses from data sources such as preservice teachers’ perceptions of the emotional climate of their class, emotional facial expressions, classroom conversations, and cogenerative dialogue. The major outcome from our analyses was that even though preservice teachers reported high positive emotional climate during the professor’s science demonstrations, they also valued the professor’s in the moment reflections on her teaching that were associated with low emotional climate ratings. We co-relate emotional climate data and preservice teachers’ comments during cogenerative dialogue to expand our understanding of high quality experiences and emotional climate in science teacher education. Our study also contributes refinements to research perspectives on emotional climate.