Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Predicting project performance through neural networks

Successful project delivery of construction projects depends on many factors. With regard to the construction of a facility, selecting a competent contractor for the job is paramount. As such, various approaches have been advanced to facilitate tender award decisions. Essentially, this type of decision involves the prediction of a bidderÕs performance based on information available at the tender stage. A neural network based prediction model was developed and presented in this paper. Project data for the study were obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department. Information from the tender reports was used as input variables and performance records of the successful bidder during construction were used as output variables. It was found that the networks for the prediction of performance scores for Works gave the highest hit rate. In addition, the two most sensitive input variables toward such prediction are ‘‘Difference between Estimate’’ and ‘‘Difference between the next closest bid’’. Both input variables are price related, thus suggesting the importance of tender sufficiency for the assurance of quality production.

The reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale for detecting cannabis dependence in psychosis.

Aims: To determine the reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) for detecting cannabis dependence in a large sample of in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Design: Cross-sectional study. Participants: Participants were 153 in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder in Brisbane, Australia. Measurements: Participants were administered the SDS for cannabis dependence in the past 12 months. The presence of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Version-IV (DSM-IV) cannabis dependence in the previous 12 months was assessed using the Comprehensive International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Findings: The SDS had high levels of internal consistency and strong construct and concurrent validity. Individuals with a score of ≥2 on the SDS were nearly 30 times more likely to have DSM-IV cannabis dependence. The SDS was the strongest predictor of DSM-IV cannabis dependence after controlling for other predictor variables. Conclusions: The SDS is a brief, valid and reliable screen for cannabis dependence among people with psychosis

Analysing preservice teachers' potential for implementing engineering education in the middle school

Engineering is pivotal to any country's development. Yet there are insufficient engineers to take up available positions in many countries, including Australia (Engineers Australia, 2008). Engineering education is limited in Australia at the primary, middle and high school levels. One of the starting points for addressing this shortfall lies in preservice teacher education. This study explores second-year preservice teachers' potential to teach engineering in middle school, following their engagement with engineering concepts in their science curriculum unit and their teaching of engineering activities to Year 7 students. Using a literature-based pretest-posttest survey, items were categorised into four constructs (ie. personal professional attributes, student motivation, pedagogical knowledge and fused curricula). Results indicated that the preservice teachers' responses had not changed for instilling positive attitudes (88%) and accepting advice from colleagues (94%). However, there was statistical significance with 9 of the 25 survey items (p<0.05) after the preservice teachers' involvement in engineering activities. Fusing engineering education with other subjects, such as mathematics and science, is an essential first step in promoting preservice teachers' potential to implement engineering education in the middle school.

Comparison of molecular markers to detect fresh sewage in environmental waters

Human-specific Bacteroides HF183 (HS-HF183), human-specific Enterococci faecium esp (HS-esp), human-specific adenoviruses (HS-AVs) and human-specific polyomaviruses (HS-PVs) assays were evaluated in freshwater, seawater and distilled water to detect fresh sewage. The sewage spiked water samples were also tested for the concentrations of traditional fecal indicators (i.e., Escherichia coli, enterococci and Clostridium perfringens) and enteric viruses such as enteroviruses (EVs), sapoviruses (SVs), and torquetenoviruses (TVs). The overall host-specificity of the HS-HF183 marker to differentiate between humans and other animals was 98%. However, the HS-esp, HS-AVs and HS-PVs showed 100% hostspecificity. All the human-specific markers showed >97% sensitivity to detect human fecal pollution. E. coli, enterococci and, C. perfringens were detected up to dilutions of sewage 10_5, 10_4 and 10_3 respectively.HS-esp, HS-AVs, HS-PVs, SVs and TVs were detected up to dilution of sewage 10_4 whilst EVs were detected up to dilution 10_5. The ability of the HS-HF183 marker to detect freshsewagewas3–4 orders ofmagnitude higher than that of the HS-esp and viral markers. The ability to detect fresh sewage in freshwater, seawater and distilled water matrices was similar for human-specific bacterial and viral marker. Based on our data, it appears that human-specific molecular markers are sensitive measures of fresh sewage pollution, and the HS-HF183 marker appears to be the most sensitive among these markers in terms of detecting fresh sewage. However, the presence of the HS-HF183 marker in environmental waters may not necessarily indicate the presence of enteric viruses due to their high abundance in sewage compared to enteric viruses. More research is required on the persistency of these markers in environmental water samples in relation to traditional fecal indicators and enteric pathogens.

Prevalence and occurrence of zoonotic bacterial pathogens in surface waters determined by quantitative PCR

The prevalence and concentrations of Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella spp. and enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) were investigated in surface waters in Brisbane, Australia using quantitative PCR (qPCR) based methodologies. Water samples were collected from Brisbane City Botanic Gardens (CBG) Pond, and two urban tidal creeks (i.e., Oxley Creek and Blunder Creek). Of the 32 water samples collected, 8 (25%), 1 (3%), 9 (28%), 14 (44%), and 15 (47%) were positive for C. jejuni mapA, Salmonella invA, EHEC O157 LPS, EHEC VT1, and EHEC VT2 genes, respectively. The presence/absence of the potential pathogens did not correlate with either E. coli or enterococci concentrations as determined by binary logistic regression. In conclusion, the high prevalence, and concentrations of potential zoonotic pathogens along with the concentrations of one or more fecal indicators in surface water samples indicate a poor level of microbial quality of surface water, and could represent a significant health risk to users. The results from the current study would provide valuable information to the water quality managers in terms of minimizing the risk from pathogens in surface waters.

Particle emission factors during cooking activities

Exposure to particles emitted by cooking activities may be responsible for a variety of respiratory health effects. However, the relationship between these exposures and their subsequent effects on health cannot be evaluated without understanding the properties of the emitted aerosol or the main parameters that influence particle emissions during cooking. Whilst traffic-related emissions, stack emissions and ultrafine particle concentrations (UFP, diameter < 100 nm) in urban ambient air have been widely investigated for many years, indoor exposure to UFPs is a relatively new field and in order to evaluate indoor UFP emissions accurately, it is vital to improve scientific understanding of the main parameters that influence particle number, surface area and mass emissions. The main purpose of this study was to characterise the particle emissions produced during grilling and frying as a function of the food, source, cooking temperature and type of oil. Emission factors, along with particle number concentrations and size distributions were determined in the size range 0.006-20 m using a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). An infrared camera was used to measure the temperature field. Overall, increased emission factors were observed to be a function of increased cooking temperatures. Cooking fatty foods also produced higher particle emission factors than vegetables, mainly in terms of mass concentration, and particle emission factors also varied significantly according to the type of oil used.

Volcanic sulphate and Arctic dust plumes over the North Atlantic Ocean

High time resolution aerosol mass spectrometry measurements were conducted during a field campaign at Mace Head Research Station, Ireland, in June 2007. Observations on one particular day of the campaign clearly indicated advection of aerosol from volcanoes and desert plains in Iceland which could be traced with NOAA Hysplit air mass back trajectories and satellite images. In conjunction with this event, elevated levels of sulphate and light absorbing particles were encountered at Mace Head. While sulphate concentration was continuously increasing, nitrate levels remained low indicating no significant contribution from anthropogenic pollutants. Sulphate concentration increased about 3.8 g/m3 in comparison with the background conditions. Corresponding sulphur flux from volcanic emissions was estimated to about 0.3 TgS/yr, suggesting that a large amount of sulphur released from Icelandic volcanoes may be distributed over distances larger than 1000 km. Overall, our results corroborate that transport of volcanogenic sulphate and dust particles can significantly change the chemical composition, size distribution, and optical properties of aerosol over the North Atlantic Ocean and should be considered accordingly by regional climate models.

Public accountability : the perceived usefulness of School Annual reports

Annual reports are an important component of New Zealand schools’ public accountability. Through the annual report the governance body informs stakeholders about school aims, objectives, achievements, use of resources, and financial performance. We examine the perceived usefulness of the annual report in the discharge of public accountability. We find that 15% of the recipients (mainly parents/caregivers) do not read the annual report because they trust in the school to do the right thing or rely on others to monitor school activities. We find that the annual report is used for a variety of purposes including to determine if the school has conducted its activities effectively and achieved stated objectives and goals; to examine student achievements; to assess financial accountability and performance; and to make decisions about the school as a suitable environment for their child/children. We find that other forms of communication such as school newsletters, parent-teacher interviews, children and other parents are more important sources of information about the school than the annual report.

Teachers making connections : online communities as a source of professional learning

The impact of the Internet on our lives has been pervasive. People are increasingly turning to the social interaction available on the Internet to satisfy their needs, whether these are professional or personal. The Internet offers users fast access to social contacts such as online chat groups and discussion lists,helping us to make connections with others. Online communities are being increasingly used by teachers for professional support, guidance and inspiration. These are often organised around subject areas and offer teachers opportunities to develop both personally and professionally. Online communities may present as a source of continuous professional development for teachers as they are able to deliver authentic and personalised opportunities for learning. This paper will present the findings of a study that was conducted on three online communities for teachers. It will explore the nature of online community membership and offer some conclusions regarding their potential as a source of professional learning for teachers.

Raman spectroscopic study of the antimonate mineral brandholzite Mg[Sb(OH)12].6H2O

Raman spectra of brandholzite Mg[Sb(OH)6].6H2O were studied, complemented with infrared spectra, and related to the structure of the mineral. An intense Raman sharp band at 618 cm-1 is attributed to the SbO symmetric stretching mode. The low intensity band at 730 cm-1 is ascribed to the SbO antisymmetric stretching vibration. Low intensity Raman bands were found at 503, 526 and 578 cm-1. Corresponding infrared bands were observed at 527, 600, 637, 693, 741 and 788 cm-1. Four Raman bands observed at 1043, 1092, 1160 and 1189 cm-1 and eight infrared bands at 963, 1027, 1055, 1075, 1108, 1128, 1156 and 1196 cm-1 are assigned to δ SbOH deformation modes. A complex pattern resulting from the overlapping band of the water and hydroxyl units is observed. Raman bands are observed at 3240, 3383, 3466, 3483 and 3552 cm-1, infrared bands at 3248, 3434 and 3565 cm-1. The first two Raman bands and the first infrared band are assigned to water stretching vibrations. The two higher wavenumber Raman bands observed at 3466 and 3552 cm-1 and two infrared bands at 3434 and 3565 cm-1 are assigned to the stretching vibrations of the hydroxyl units. Observed Raman and infrared bands are connected with O-H…O hydrogen bonds and their lengths 2.72, 2.79, 2.86, 2.88 and 3.0 Å (Raman) and 2.73, 2.83 and 3.07 Å (infrared).

The psychological management of adult grief reactions

Despite the severe challenges which are posed by the loss of a close friend or relative, bereavement has a relatively benign outcome in most cases. While the majority of patients cope with bereavement, a significant minority develop problems. A behavioural approach may help the bereaved avoid adverse grief reactions.

Raman spectroscopic study of the uranyl mineral pseudojohannite Cu6.5[(UO2)4O4(SO4)2]2(OH)5.25H2O

Raman spectra of pseudojohannite were studied and related to the structure of the mineral. Observed bands were assigned to the stretching and bending vibrations of (UO2)2+ and (SO4)2- units and of water molecules. The published formula of pseudojohannite is Cu6.5(UO2)8\[O8](OH)5\[(SO4)4].25H2O; however Raman spectroscopy does not detect any hydroxyl units. Raman bands at 805 and 810 cm-1 are assigned to (UO2)2+ stretching modes. The Raman bands at 1017 and 1100 cm-1 are assigned to the (SO4)2- symmetric and antisymmetric stretching vibrations. The three Raman bands at 423, 465 and 496 cm-1 are assigned to the (SO4)2- ν2 bending modes. The bands at 210 and 279 cm-1 are assigned to the doubly degenerate ν2 bending vibration of the (UO2)2+ units. U-O bond lengths in uranyl and O-H…O hydrogen bond lengths were calculated from the Raman and infrared spectra.

Raman spectroscopic study of the uranyl mineral metauranospinite Ca[(UO2)(AsO4)]2.8H2O

Raman spectra of metauranospinite Ca[(UO2)(AsO4)]2.8H2O complemented with infrared spectra were studied. Observed bands were assigned to the stretching and bending vibrations of (UO2)2+ and (AsO4)3- units and of water molecules. U-O bond lengths in uranyl and O-H…O hydrogen bond lengths were calculated from the Raman and infrared spectra.