Sensitivity of the lane change test as a measure of in-vehicle system demand

The Lane Change Test (LCT) is one of the growing number of methods developed to quantify driving performance degradation brought about by the use of in-vehicle devices. Beyond its validity and reliability, for such a test to be of practical use, it must also be sensitive to the varied demands of individual tasks. The current study evaluated the ability of several recent LCT lateral control and event detection parameters to discriminate between visual-manual and cognitive surrogate In-Vehicle Information System tasks with different levels of demand. Twenty-seven participants (mean age 24.4 years) completed a PC version of the LCT while performing visual search and math problem solving tasks. A number of the lateral control metrics were found to be sensitive to task differences, but the event detection metrics were less able to discriminate between tasks. The mean deviation and lane excursion measures were able to distinguish between the visual and cognitive tasks, but were less sensitive to the different levels of task demand. The other LCT metrics examined were less sensitive to task differences. A major factor influencing the sensitivity of at least some of the LCT metrics could be the type of lane change instructions given to participants. The provision of clear and explicit lane change instructions and further refinement of its metrics will be essential for increasing the utility of the LCT as an evaluation tool.

Use of electronic travel diaries and vehicle instrumentation packages in the year 2000 : Atlanta Regional Household Travel Survey

The Georgia Institute of Technology is currently performing research that will result in the development and deployment of three instrumentation packages that allow for automated capture of personal travel-related data for a given time period (up to 10 days). These three packages include: A handheld electronic travel diary (ETD) with Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities to capture trip information for all modes of travel; A comprehensive electronic travel monitoring system (CETMS), which includes an ETD, a rugged laptop computer, a GPS receiver and antenna, and an onboard engine monitoring system, to capture all trip and vehicle information; and a passive GPS receiver, antenna, and data logger to capture vehicle trips only.

Work-related driving safety in light vehicle fleets : a review of past research and the development of an intervention framework

This paper presents a critical review of past research in the work-related driving field in light vehicle fleets (e.g., vehicles < 4.5 tonnes) and an intervention framework that provides future direction for practitioners and researchers. Although work-related driving crashes have become the most common cause of death, injury, and absence from work in Australia and overseas, very limited research has progressed in establishing effective strategies to improve safety outcomes. In particular, the majority of past research has been data-driven, and therefore, limited attention has been given to theoretical development in establishing the behavioural mechanism underlying driving behaviour. As such, this paper argues that to move forward in the field of work-related driving safety, practitioners and researchers need to gain a better understanding of the individual and organisational factors influencing safety through adopting relevant theoretical frameworks, which in turn will inform the development of specifically targeted theory-driven interventions. This paper presents an intervention framework that is based on relevant theoretical frameworks and sound methodological design, incorporating interventions that can be directed at the appropriate level, individual and driving target group.

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Tamper evidence for heavy vehicle on board mass systems

On-board mass (OBM) monitoring devices on heavy vehicles (HVs) have been tested in a national programme jointly by Transport Certification Australia Limited and the National Transport Commission. The tests were for, amongst other parameters, accuracy and tamper-evidence. The latter by deliberately tampering with the signals from OBM primary transducers during the tests. The OBM feasibility team is analysing dynamic data recorded at the primary transducers of OBM systems to determine if it can be used to detect tamper events. Tamper-evidence of current OBM systems needs to be determined if jurisdictions are to have confidence in specifying OBM for HVs as part of regulatory schemes. An algorithm has been developed to detect tamper events. The results of its application are detailed here.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

The Heavy Vehicle Study : a case-control study investigating risk factors for crash in long distance heavy vehicle drivers in Australia

Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.

Autonomous underwater vehicle trajectory design coupled with predictive ocean models : a case study

Data collection using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is increasing in importance within the oceano- graphic research community. Contrary to traditional moored or static platforms, mobile sensors require intelligent planning strategies to manoeuvre through the ocean. However, the ability to navigate to high-value locations and collect data with specific scientific merit is worth the planning efforts. In this study, we examine the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, and aid in planning the trajectory that the vehicle executes during the sampling mission. The objectives are: a) to provide near-real time, in situ measurements to a large-scale ocean model to increase the skill of future predictions, and b) to utilize ocean model predictions as a component in an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We present an algorithm designed to generate paths for AUVs to track a dynamically evolving ocean feature utilizing ocean model predictions. This builds on previous work in this area by incorporating the predicted current velocities into the path planning to assist in solving the 3-D motion planning problem of steering an AUV between two selected locations. We present simulation results for tracking a fresh water plume by use of our algorithm. Additionally, we present experimental results from field trials that test the skill of the model used as well as the incorporation of the model predictions into an AUV trajectory planner. These results indicate a modest, but measurable, improvement in surfacing error when the model predictions are incorporated into the planner.

A geometric approach to trajectory design for an autonomous underwater vehicle : surveying the bulbous bow of a ship

In this paper, we present a control strategy design technique for an autonomous underwater vehicle based on solutions to the motion planning problem derived from differential geometric methods. The motion planning problem is motivated by the practical application of surveying the hull of a ship for implications of harbor and port security. In recent years, engineers and researchers have been collaborating on automating ship hull inspections by employing autonomous vehicles. Despite the progresses made, human intervention is still necessary at this stage. To increase the functionality of these autonomous systems, we focus on developing model-based control strategies for the survey missions around challenging regions, such as the bulbous bow region of a ship. Recent advances in differential geometry have given rise to the field of geometric control theory. This has proven to be an effective framework for control strategy design for mechanical systems, and has recently been extended to applications for underwater vehicles. Advantages of geometric control theory include the exploitation of symmetries and nonlinearities inherent to the system. Here, we examine the posed inspection problem from a path planning viewpoint, applying recently developed techniques from the field of differential geometric control theory to design the control strategies that steer the vehicle along the prescribed path. Three potential scenarios for surveying a ship?s bulbous bow region are motivated for path planning applications. For each scenario, we compute the control strategy and implement it onto a test-bed vehicle. Experimental results are analyzed and compared with theoretical predictions.

Increasing underwater vehicle autonomy by reducing energy consumption

In this paper, we concern ourselves with finding a control strategy that minimizes energy consumption along a trajectory connecting two given configurations. We develop an algorithm, based on our previous work with the time optimal problem, which provides implementable control strategies that are energy efficient. We find an interesting correlation between the duration of these trajectories and the optimal duration. We present the algorithm, control strategy and experimental results from our test-bed vehicle.

Efficient control of an autonomous underwater vehicle while accounting for thruster failure

This paper is concerned with the design and implementation of control strategies onto a test-bed vehicle with six degrees-of-freedom. We design our trajectories to be efficient in time and in power consumption. Moreover, we also consider cases when actuator failure can arise and discuss alternate control strategies in this situation. Our calculations are supplemented by experimental results.

Design and implementation of time efficient trajectories for an underwater vehicle

This paper discusses control strategies adapted for practical implementation and efficient motion of underwater vehicles. These trajectories are piecewise constant thrust arcs with few actuator switchings. We provide the numerical algorithm which computes the time efficient trajectories parameterized by the switching times. We discuss both the theoretical analysis and experimental implementation results.

Multi-objective four-dimensional vehicle motion planning in large dynamic environments

This paper presents Multi-Step A* (MSA*), a search algorithm based on A* for multi-objective 4D vehicle motion planning (three spatial and one time dimension). The research is principally motivated by the need for offline and online motion planning for autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). For UAVs operating in large, dynamic and uncertain 4D environments, the motion plan consists of a sequence of connected linear tracks (or trajectory segments). The track angle and velocity are important parameters that are often restricted by assumptions and grid geometry in conventional motion planners. Many existing planners also fail to incorporate multiple decision criteria and constraints such as wind, fuel, dynamic obstacles and the rules of the air. It is shown that MSA* finds a cost optimal solution using variable length, angle and velocity trajectory segments. These segments are approximated with a grid based cell sequence that provides an inherent tolerance to uncertainty. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variable successor operators to create a multi-resolution, memory efficient lattice sampling structure. Simulation studies on the UAV flight planning problem show that MSA* meets the time constraints of online replanning and finds paths of equivalent cost but in a quarter of the time (on average) of vector neighbourhood based A*.