Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

In defence of Victoria's Children's Court : its value and role in the child protection system

Australian child protection systems have been subject to sustained and significant criticism for many decades. As a central part of that system Children’s Courts have been implicated: three recent inquiries into the child protection system in Victoria all criticised the Family Division of the Children’s Court.1 In the resulting debate two diametrically opposed points of view surfaced about the Children’s Court and the role that legal procedures and professionals should play in child protection matters. On one side bodies like the Children’s Court of Victoria, Victoria Legal Aid (‘VLA’), the Law Institute of Victoria (‘LIV’), and the Federation of Community Legal Centres (‘FCLC’) argued that the Children’s Court plays a vital role in child protection and should continue to play that role.2 On the other side a coalition of human service and child protection agencies called for major change including the removal of the Children’s Court from the child protection system. Victoria’s Department of Human Services (‘DHS’) has been critical of the Court3 as have community sector organisations like Anglicare, Berry Street, MacKillop Family Services and the Salvation Army — all agencies the DHS funds to deliver child protection services.4 Victoria’s Child Safety Commissioner has also called for major reform, publicly labelling the Court a ‘lawyers’ playground’ and recommending abolishing the Court’s involvement in child protection completely.

Decentralized detector generation in cooperative intrusion detection system

We consider Cooperative Intrusion Detection System (CIDS) which is a distributed AIS-based (Artificial Immune System) IDS where nodes collaborate over a peer-to-peer overlay network. The AIS uses the negative selection algorithm for the selection of detectors (e.g., vectors of features such as CPU utilization, memory usage and network activity). For better detection performance, selection of all possible detectors for a node is desirable but it may not be feasible due to storage and computational overheads. Limiting the number of detectors on the other hand comes with the danger of missing attacks. We present a scheme for the controlled and decentralized division of detector sets where each IDS is assigned to a region of the feature space. We investigate the trade-off between scalability and robustness of detector sets. We address the problem of self-organization in CIDS so that each node generates a distinct set of the detectors to maximize the coverage of the feature space while pairs of nodes exchange their detector sets to provide a controlled level of redundancy. Our contribution is twofold. First, we use Symmetric Balanced Incomplete Block Design, Generalized Quadrangles and Ramanujan Expander Graph based deterministic techniques from combinatorial design theory and graph theory to decide how many and which detectors are exchanged between which pair of IDS nodes. Second, we use a classical epidemic model (SIR model) to show how properties from deterministic techniques can help us to reduce the attack spread rate.

How safe is safe enough? : a socio-technical view of low-cost level crossing safety

Low-cost level crossings are often criticized as being unsafe. Does a SIL (safety integrity level) rating make the railway crossing any safer? This paper discusses how a supporting argument might be made for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity and issues such as risk tolerability and derivation of tolerable hazard rates for system-level hazards. As part of the design of such systems according to fail-safe principles, the paper considers the assumptions around the pre-defined safe states of existing warning devices and how human factors issues around such states can give rise to additional hazards.

Comparing child product safety concerns with injury incidents : does the evidence support the response?

Background Efficient effective child product safety (PS) responses require data on hazards, injury severity and injury probability. PS responses in Australia largely rely on reports from manufacturers/retailers, other jurisdictions/regulators, or consumers. The extent to which reactive responses reflect actual child injury priorities is unknown. Aims/Objectives/Purpose This research compared PS issues for children identified using data compiled from PS regulatory data and data compiled from health data sources in Queensland, Australia. Methods PS regulatory documents describing issues affecting children in Queensland in 2008–2009 were compiled and analysed to identify frequent products and hazards. Three health data sources (ED, injury surveillance and hospital data) were analysed to identify frequent products and hazards. Results/Outcomes Projectile toys/squeeze toys were the priority products for PS regulators with these toys having the potential to release small parts presenting choking hazards. However, across all health datasets, falls were the most common mechanism of injury, and several of the products identified were not subject to a PS system response. While some incidents may not require a response, a manual review of injury description text identified child poisonings and burns as common mechanisms of injuries in the health data where there was substantial documentation of product-involvement, yet only 10% of PS system responses focused on these two mechanisms combined. Significance/contribution to the field Regulatory data focused on products that fail compliance checks with ‘potential’ to cause harm, and health data identified actual harm, resulting in different prioritisation of products/mechanisms. Work is needed to better integrate health data into PS responses in Australia.

Examining the effects of an eco-driving system on driver distraction

Driver distraction has recently been defined by Regan as "the diversion of attention away from activities critical for safe driving toward a competing activity, which may result in insufficient or no attention to activities critical for safe driving (Regan, Hallett & Gordon, 2011, p.1780)". One source of distraction is in-vehicle devices, even though they might provide other benefits, e.g. navigation systems. Currently, eco-driving systems have been growing rapidly in popularity. These systems send messages to drivers so that driving performance can be improved in terms of fuel efficiency. However, there remain unanswered questions about whether eco-driving systems endanger drivers by distracting them. In this research, the CARRS-Q advanced driving simulator was used in order to provide safety for participants and meanwhile simulate real world driving. The distraction effects of tasks involving three different in-vehicle systems were investigated: changing a CD, entering a five digit number as a part of navigation task and responding to an eco-driving task. Driving in these scenarios was compared with driving in the absence of these distractions, and while drivers engaged in critical manoeuvres. In order to account for practice effects, the same scenarios were duplicated on a second day. The three in-vehicle systems were not the exact facsimiles of any particular existing system, but were designed to have similar characteristics to those of system available. In general, the results show that drivers’ mental workloads are significantly higher in navigation and CD changing scenarios in comparison to the two other scenarios, which implies that these two tasks impose more visual/manual and cognitive demands. However, eco-driving mental workload is still high enough to be called marginally significant (p ~ .05) across manoeuvres. Similarly, event detection tasks show that drivers miss significantly more events in the navigation and CD changing scenarios in comparison to both the baseline and eco-driving scenario across manoeuvres. Analysis of the practice effect shows that drivers’ baseline scenario and navigation scenario exhibit significantly less demand on the second day. However, the number of missed events across manoeuvres confirmed that drivers can detect significantly more events on the second day for all scenarios. Distraction was also examined separately for five groups of manoeuvres (straight, lane changing, overtaking, braking for intersections and braking for roundabouts), in two locations for each condition. Repeated measures mixed ANOVA results show that reading an eco-driving message can potentially impair driving performance. When comparing the three in–vehicle distractions tested, attending to an eco-driving message is similar in effect to the CD changing task. The navigation task degraded driver performance much more than these other sources of distraction. In lane changing manoeuvres, drivers’ missed response counts degraded when they engaged in reading eco-driving messages at the first location. However, drivers’ event detection abilities deteriorated less at the second lane changing location. In baseline manoeuvres (driving straight), participants’ mean minimum speed degraded more in the CD changing scenario. Drivers’ lateral position shifted more in both CD changing and navigation tasks in comparison with both eco-driving and baseline scenarios, so they were more visually distracting. Participants were better at event detection in baseline manoeuvres in comparison with other manoeuvres. When approaching an intersection, the navigation task caused more events to be missed by participants, whereas eco-driving messages seemed to make drivers less distracted. The eco-driving message scenario was significantly less distracting than the navigation system scenario (fewer missed responses) when participants commenced braking for roundabouts. To sum up, in spite of the finding that two other in-vehicle tasks are more distracting than the eco-driving task, the results indicate that even reading a simple message while driving could potentially lead to missing an important event, especially when executing critical manoeuvres. This suggests that in-vehicle eco-driving systems have the potential to contribute to increased crash risk through distraction. However, there is some evidence of a practice effect which suggests that future research should focus on performance with habitual rather than novel tasks. It is recommended that eco-driving messages be delivered to drivers off-line when possible.

Australia's disabling income support system : tracing the history of the Australian disability income support system 1908 to 2007 : disablism, citizenship and the basic income proposal

The present study examined the historical basis of the Australian disability income support system from 1908 to 2007. Although designed as a safety net for people with a disability, the disability income support system within Australia has been highly targeted. The original eligibility criteria of "permanently incapacitated for work", medical criteria and later "partially capacitated for work" potentially contained ideological inferences that permeated across the time period. This represents an important area for study given the potential consequence for disability income support to marginalise people with a disability. Social policy and disability policy theorists, including Saunders (2007, Social Policy Research Centre [SPRC]) and Gibilisco (2003) have provided valuable insight into some of the effects of disability policy and poverty. Yet while these theorists argued for some form of income support they did not propose a specific form of income security for further exploration. Few studies have undertaken a comprehensive review of the history of disability income support within the Australian context. This thesis sought to redress these gaps by examining disability income support policy within Australia. The research design consisted of an in-depth critical historical-comparative policy analysis methodology. The use of critical historical-comparative policy analysis allowed the researcher to trace the construction of disability within the Australian disability income support policy across four major historical epochs. A framework was developed specifically to guide analysis of the data. The critical discourse analysis method helped to understand the underlying ideological dimensions that led to the predominance of one particular approach over another. Given this, the research purpose of the study centred on: i. Tracing the history of the Australian disability income support system. ii. Examining the historical patterns and ideological assumptions over time. iii. Exploring the historical patterns and ideological assumptions underpinning an alternative model (Basic Income) and the extent to which each model promotes the social citizenship of people with a disability. The research commitment to a social-relational ontology and the quest for social change centred on the idea that "there has to be a better way" in the provision of disability income support. This theme of searching for an alternative reality in disability income support policy resonated throughout the thesis. This thesis found that the Australian disability income support system is disabling in nature and generates categories of disability on the basis of ableness. From the study, ableness became a condition for citizenship. This study acknowledged that, in reality, income support provision reflects only one aspect of the disabling nature of society which requires redressing. Although there are inherent tensions in any redistributive strategy, the Basic Income model potentially provides an alternative to the Australian disability income support system, given its grounding in social citizenship. The thesis findings have implications for academics, policy-makers and practitioners in terms of developing better ways to understand disability constructs in disability income support policy. The thesis also makes a contribution in terms of promoting income support policies based on the rights of all people, not just a few.

A critical assessment of the Australian OHS accreditation system's "Body of Knowledge (BoK)"

In response to an increasing perception of poor OHS consultancy quality amongst the Australian public, regulator and OHS professionals, the Safety Institute Australia (SIA) was tasked by the Victorian government to establish an accreditation process for OHS professionals. The OHS accreditation board decided to base its accreditation on a core "body of knowledge" (BoK), against which applicants are assesssed. While the foundation and structure of the BoK is unclear, the BoK consists of a collection of essays from a variety of invited authors. The BoK comprises about 811 pages in 34 chapters, with significant redundancy and considerable subjective components. The SIA BoK is benchmarked against two international best-practices, the German "Core Definition, Object Catalog and Research Domains of Labour Science (Ergonomics)" (Luzcak, Volpert, Raeithel & Schwier, 1989)(100 pages) and the American "Core Competency Model" for the "Master's Degree in Public Health" (Association of Schools of Public Health, 2006) (21 pages). Both "core definition" and "core competency model" are on a comparative level to the BoK. While the German expert panel consisted of 14 eminent professors, the American panel consisted of 135 members, organized in 6 groups chaired by discipline leading academics. The Australian approach employed a broad approach, where 137 professionals, consultants, emerging academics and academics contributed to 8 workshops. Both the German and the American panels maintained an open communication amongst members and with the discipline community throughout the process, whereas SIA applied an open and directed peer-review process. Moreover, the German process involved an analysis of all congress content and journal publications in the scientific domain in a set timeframe, which were then systematically clustered. These results were further expanded by structured interviews with 38 professors in the discpline, grasping their research and teaching practice. The American workgroup however assumed core scientific areas, underlying the domain. Based upon the a-priori assumption, they then established well defined competencies across all areas using a modified Delphi process. Although the BoK attempts to explore the knowledge in the OHS domain without an imposed structure in a bottom-up approach, it does not result in a structured systematic of the science. We conclude that the outcome of the German, rigorous academic approach, and the US American democratic approach under unambiguous academic leadership both outperform the Australian advocacy group approach. This product was determined for both structure and content of the taxonomy delivered through the processes.

Experimental impact and finite element analysis of a composite, portable road safety barrier

This thesis provides an experimental and computational platform for investigating the performance and behaviour of water filled, plastic portable road safety barriers in an isolated impact scenario. A schedule of experimental impact tests were conducted assessing the impact response of an existing design of road safety barrier utilising a novel horizontal impact testing system. A coupled finite element and smooth particle hydrodynamic model of the barrier system was developed and validated against the results of the experimental tests. The validated model was subsequently used to assess the effect of certain composite materials on the impact performance of the water filled, portable road safety barrier system.

Improving level crossing safety through enhanced data recording and reporting : The CRC for Rail Innovation’s Baseline Rail Level Crossing Video project

This paper describes the work being conducted in the baseline rail level crossing project, supported by the Australian rail industry and the Cooperative Research Centre for Rail Innovation. The paper discusses the limitations of near-miss data for analysis obtained using current level crossing occurrence reporting practices. The project is addressing these limitations through the development of a data collection and analysis system with an underlying level crossing accident causation model. An overview of the methodology and improved data recording process are described. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of benefits this project is expected to provide the Australian rail industry.

The impact of interface modality on police officers' visual behaviour when using an in-vehicle system

Background Standard operating procedures state that police officers should not drive while interacting with their mobile data terminal (MDT) which provides in-vehicle information essential to police work. Such interactions do however occur in practice and represent a potential source of driver distraction. The MDT comprises visual output with manual input via touch screen and keyboard. This study investigated the potential for alternative input and output methods to mitigate driver distraction with specific focus on eye movements. Method Nineteen experienced drivers of police vehicles (one female) from the NSW Police Force completed four simulated urban drives. Three drives included a concurrent secondary task: imitation licence plate search using an emulated MDT. Three different interface methods were examined: Visual-Manual, Visual-Voice, and Audio-Voice (“Visual” and “Audio” = output modality; “Manual” and “Voice” = input modality). During each drive, eye movements were recorded using FaceLAB™ (Seeing Machines Ltd, Canberra, ACT). Gaze direction and glances on the MDT were assessed. Results The Visual-Voice and Visual-Manual interfaces resulted in a significantly greater number of glances towards the MDT than Audio-Voice or Baseline. The Visual-Manual and Visual-Voice interfaces resulted in significantly more glances to the display than Audio-Voice or Baseline. For longer duration glances (>2s and 1-2s) the Visual-Manual interface resulted in significantly more fixations than Baseline or Audio-Voice. The short duration glances (<1s) were significantly greater for both Visual-Voice and Visual-Manual compared with Baseline and Audio-Voice. There were no significant differences between Baseline and Audio-Voice. Conclusion An Audio-Voice interface has the greatest potential to decrease visual distraction to police drivers. However, it is acknowledged that an audio output may have limitations for information presentation compared with visual output. The Visual-Voice interface offers an environment where the capacity to present information is sustained, whilst distraction to the driver is reduced (compared to Visual-Manual) by enabling adaptation of fixation behaviour.

Evidence for the safety and quality issues associated with the care of patients with cognitive impairment in acute care settings : a rapid review

The Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care commissioned this rapid review to identify recent evidence in relation to three key questions: 1. What is the current evidence of quality and safety issues regarding the hospital experience of people with cognitive impairment (dementia/delirium)? 2. What are the existing evidence-based pathways, best practice or guidelines for cognitive impairment in hospitals? 3. What are the key components of an ideal patient journey for a person with dementia and/or delirium? The purpose of this review is to identify best practice in caring for patients with cognitive impairment (CI) in acute hospital settings. CI refers to patients with dementia and delirium but can include other conditions. For the purposes of this report, ‘Hospitals’ is defined as acute care settings and includes care provided by acute care institutions in other settings (e.g. Multipurpose Services and Hospital in the Home). It does not include residential aged care settings nor palliative care services that are not part of a service provided by an acute care institution. Method Both peer-reviewed publications and the grey literature were comprehensively searched for recent (primarily post 2010) publications, reports and guidelines that addressed the three key questions. The literature was evaluated and graded according to the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) levels of criteria (see Evidence Summary – Appendix B). Results Thirty-one recent publications were retrieved in relation to quality and safety issues faced by people with CI in acute hospitals. The results indicate that CI is a common problem in hospitals (upwards of 30% - the rate increases with increasing patient age), although this is likely to be an underestimate, in part, due to numbers of patients without a formal dementia diagnosis. There is a large body of evidence showing that patients with CI have worse outcomes than patients without CI following hospitalisation including increased mortality, more complications, longer hospital stays, increased system costs as well as functional and cognitive decline. 4 To improve the care of patients with CI in hospital, best practice guidelines have been developed, of which sixteen recent guidelines/position statements/standards were identified in this review (Table 2). Four guidelines described standards or quality indicators for providing optimal care for the older person with CI in hospital, in general, while three focused on delirium diagnosis, prevention and management. The remaining guidelines/statements focused on specific issues in relation to the care of patients with CI in acute hospitals including hydration, nutrition, wandering and care in the Emergency Department (ED). A key message in several of the guidelines was that older patients should be assessed for CI at admission and this is particularly important in the case of delirium, which can indicate an emergency, in order to implement treatment. A second clear mess...

Safety at railway level crossings : driver acceptance of potential ITS interventions

There is a continuing need to improve safety at Railway Level Crossings (RLX) particularly those that do not have gates and lights regulating traffic flow. A number of Intelligent Transport System (ITS) interventions have been proposed to improve drivers’ awareness and reduce errors in detecting and responding appropriately at level crossings. However, as with other technologies, successful implementation and ultimately effectiveness rests with the acceptance of the technology by the end user. In the current research, four focus groups were held (n=38) with drivers in metropolitan and regional locations in Queensland to examine their perceptions of potential in-vehicle and road-based ITS interventions to improve safety at RLX. The findings imply that further development of the ITS interventions, in particular the design and related promotion of the final product, must consider ease of use, usefulness and relative cost.