97 resultados para multipath change - point problems
Resumo:
Climate change is expected to increase earth’s temperatures and consequently result in more frequent extreme weather events such as cyclones, storms, droughts and floods and rising global sea levels. This phenomenon will affect all assets. This paper discusses the impact of climate change and its consequences on public buildings. Public building management encompasses the building life cycle from planning, procurement, operation, repair and maintenance and building disposal. This paper recommends climate change adaptation strategies to be integrated into public building management. The roles and responsibilities of asset managers and users are discussed within the framework of planning and implementation of public building management and the integration of climate change adaptation strategies. A key point is that climate change can induce premature obsolescence of public buildings and services, which will increase the maintenance and refurbishment costs. This in turn will affect the life cycle cost of the building. Furthermore, a business continuity plan is essential for public building management in the context of disasters. The paper also highlights the significant role that the occupants of public buildings can play in the development and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies.
Resumo:
Depression in childhood or adolescence is associated with increased rates of depression in adulthood. Does this justify efforts to detect (and treat) those with symptoms of depression in early childhood or adolescence? The aim of this study was to determine how well symptoms of anxiety/depression (A-D) in early childhood and adolescence predict adult mental health. The study sample is taken from a population-based prospective birth cohort study. Of the 8556 mothers initially approached to participate 8458 agreed, of whom 7223 mothers gave birth to a live singleton baby. Children were screened using modified Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) scales for internalizing and total problems (T-P) at age 5 and the CBCL and Youth Self Report (YSR) A-D subscale and T-P scale at age 14. At age 21, a sub-sample of 2563 young adults in this cohort were administered the CIDI-Auto. Results indicated that screening at age 5 would detect few later cases of significant mental ill-health. Using a cut-point of 20% for internalizing at child age 5 years the CBCL had sensitivities of only 25% and 18% for major depression and anxiety disorders at 21 years, respectively. At age 14, the YSR generally performed a little better than the CBCL as a screening instrument, but neither performed at a satisfactory level. Of the children who were categorised as having YSR A-D at 14 years 30% and 37% met DSM-IV criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, at age 21. Our findings challenge an existing movement encouraging the detection and treatment of those with symptoms of mental illness in early childhood.
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Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency, duration and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job: Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT. It should be noted from the outset that the purpose of this research project is not to criticise the actions of emergency service workers and volunteers who do an incredible job under extreme circumstances, often risking their own lives in the process. The aim is simply to offer emergency management agencies the opportunity to step back and rethink their overall approach to the challenge they face in the light of the impacts of climate change.
Resumo:
Several fringing coral reefs in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, some 300 km south of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), are set in a relatively high latitude, estuarine environment that is considered marginal for coral growth. Previous work indicated that these marginal reefs, as with many fringing reefs of the inner GBR, ceased accreting in the mid-Holocene. This research presents for the first time data from the subsurface profile of the mid-Holocene fossil reef at Wellington Point comprising U/Th dates of in situ and framework corals, and trace element analysis from the age constrained carbonate fragments. Based on trace element proxies the palaeo-water quality during reef accretion was reconstructed. Results demonstrate that the reef initiated more than 7,000 yr BP during the post glacial transgression, and the initiation progressed to the west as sea level rose. In situ micro-atolls indicate that sea level was at least 1 m above present mean sea level by 6,680 years ago. The reef remained in "catch-up" mode, with a seaward sloping upper surface, until it stopped aggrading abruptly at ca 6,000 yr BP; no lateral progradation occurred. Changes in sediment composition encountered in the cores suggest that after the laterite substrate was covered by the reef, most of the sediment was produced by the carbonate factory with minimal terrigenous influence. Rare earth element, Y and Ba proxies indicate that water quality during reef accretion was similar to oceanic waters, considered suitable for coral growth. A slight decline in water quality on the basis of increased Ba in the later stages of growth may be related to increased riverine input and partial closing up of the bay due to either tidal delta progradation, climatic change and/or slight sea level fall. The age data suggest that termination of reef growth coincided with a slight lowering of sea level, activation of ENSO and consequent increase in seasonality, lowering of temperatures and the constrictions to oceanic flushing. At the cessation of reef accretion the environmental conditions in the western Moreton Bay were changing from open marine to estuarine. The living coral community appears to be similar to the fossil community, but without the branching Acropora spp. that were more common in the fossil reef. In this marginal setting coral growth periods do not always correspond to periods of reef accretion due to insufficient coral abundance. Due to several environmental constraints modern coral growth is insufficient for reef growth. Based on these findings Moreton Bay may be unsuitable as a long term coral refuge for most species currently living in the GBR.
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Abstract OBJECTIVE: Those with mental illness are at increased risk of physical health problems. The current study aimed to examine the information available online to the Australian public about the increased risk and consequences of physical illness in those with mental health problems and the services available to address these co-morbidities. METHODS: A structured online search was conducted with the search engine Google Australia (www.google.com.au) using generic search terms 'mental health information Australia', 'mental illness information Australia', 'depression', 'anxiety', and 'psychosis'. The direct content of websites was examined for information on the physical co-morbidities of mental illness. All external links on high-profile websites [the first five websites retrieved under each search term (n = 25)] were examined for information pertaining to physical health. RESULTS: Only 4.2% of websites informing the public about mental health contained direct content information about the increased risk of physical co-morbidities. The Australian Government's Department of Health and Ageing site did not contain any information. Of the high-profile websites, 62% had external links to resources about physical health and 55% had recommendations or resources for physical health. Most recommendations were generic. CONCLUSIONS: Relative to the seriousness of this problem, there is a paucity of information available to the public about the increased physical health risks associated with mental illness. Improved public awareness is the starting point of addressing this health inequity.
Resumo:
People often assume children have no worries or nothing to be stressed about. However, children, like adults, do worry about a range of things. There may be times during periods of stress or change when children worry more intensely about things than usual.
Resumo:
The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.
Resumo:
Major disasters, such as bushfires or floods, place significant stress on scarce public resources. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this stress. An integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) could reduce the stress by encouraging the more efficient use of pooled resources and expertise. A comparative analysis of three extreme climate-related events that occurred in Australia between 2009 and 2011 indicated that a strategy to improve interagency communication and collaboration would be a key factor in this type of policy/planning integration. These findings are in accord with the concepts of Joined-up Government and Network Governance. Five key reforms are proposed: developing a shared policy vision; adopting multi-level planning; integrating legislation; networking organisations; and establishing cooperative funding. These reforms are examined with reference to the related research literature in order to identify potential problems associated with their implementation. The findings are relevant for public policy generally but are particularly useful for CCA and DRM.
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The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.
Resumo:
What is ‘best practice’ when it comes to managing intellectual property rights in participatory media content? As commercial media and entertainment business models have increasingly come to rely upon the networked productivity of end-users (Banks and Humphreys 2008) this question has been framed as a problem of creative labour made all the more precarious by changing employment patterns and work cultures of knowledge-intensive societies and globalising economies (Banks, Gill and Taylor 2014). This paper considers how the problems of ownership are addressed in non-commercial, community-based arts and media contexts. Problems of labour are also manifest in these contexts (for example, reliance on volunteer labour and uncertain economic reward for creative excellence). Nonetheless, managing intellectual property rights in collaborative creative works that are created in community media and arts contexts is no less challenging or complex than in commercial contexts. This paper takes as its focus a particular participatory media practice known as ‘digital storytelling’. The digital storytelling method, formalised by the Centre for Digital Storytelling (CDS) from the mid-1990s, has been internationally adopted and adapted for use in an open-ended variety of community arts, education, health and allied services settings (Hartley and McWilliam 2009; Lambert 2013; Lundby 2008; Thumin 2012). It provides a useful point of departure for thinking about a range of collaborative media production practices that seek to address participation ‘gaps’ (Jenkins 2006). However the outputs of these activities, including digital stories, cannot be fully understood or accurately described as user-generated content. For this reason, digital storytelling is taken here to belong to a category of participatory media activity that has been described as ‘co-creative’ media (Spurgeon 2013) in order to improve understanding of the conditions of mediated and mediatized participation (Couldry 2008). This paper reports on a survey of the actual copyrighting practices of cultural institutions and community-based media arts practitioners that work with digital storytelling and similar participatory content creation methods. This survey finds that although there is a preference for Creative Commons licensing a great variety of approaches are taken to managing intellectual property rights in co-creative media. These range from the use of Creative Commons licences (for example, Lambert 2013, p.193) to retention of full copyrights by storytellers, to retention of certain rights by facilitating organisations (for example, broadcast rights by community radio stations and public service broadcasters), and a range of other shared rights arrangements between professional creative practitioners, the individual storytellers and communities with which they collaborate, media outlets, exhibitors and funders. This paper also considers how aesthetic and ethical considerations shape responses to questions of intellectual property rights in community media arts contexts. For example, embedded in the CDS digital storytelling method is ‘a critique of power and the numerous ways that rank is unconsciously expressed in engagements between classes, races and gender’ (Lambert 117). The CDS method privileges the interests of the storyteller and, through a transformative workshop process, aims to generate original individual stories that, in turn, reflect self-awareness of ‘how much the way we live is scripted by history, by social and cultural norms, by our own unique journey through a contradictory, and at times hostile, world’ (Lambert 118). Such a critical approach is characteristic of co-creative media practices. It extends to a heightened awareness of the risks of ‘story theft’ and the challenges of ownership and informs ideas of ‘best practice’ amongst creative practitioners, teaching artists and community media producers, along with commitments to achieving equitable solutions for all participants in co-creative media practice (for example, Lyons-Reid and Kuddell nd.). Yet, there is surprisingly little written about the challenges of managing intellectual property produced in co-creative media activities. A dialogic sense of ownership in stories has been identified as an indicator of successful digital storytelling practice (Hayes and Matusov 2005) and is helpful to grounding the more abstract claims of empowerment for social participation that are associated with co-creative methods. Contrary to the ‘change from below’ philosophy that underpins much thinking about co-creative media, however, discussions of intellectual property usually focus on how methods such as digital storytelling contribute to the formation of copyright law-compliant subjects, particularly when used in educational settings (for example, Ohler nd.). This also exposes the reliance of co-creative methods on the creative assets storytellers (rather than on the copyrighted materials of the media cultures of storytellers) as a pragmatic response to the constraints that intellectual property right laws impose on the entire category of participatory media. At the level of practical politics, it also becomes apparent that co-creative media practitioners and storytellers located in copyright jurisdictions governed by ‘fair use’ principles have much greater creative flexibility than those located in jurisdictions governed by ‘fair dealing’ principles.
Resumo:
The responsiveness to change of the Actical and ActiGraph accelerometers was assessed in children and adolescents. Participants (n=208) aged 6-16 years completed two simulated free-living protocols, one with primarily light-to-moderate physical activities (PA) and one with mostly moderate-to-vigorous PA. Time in sedentary, light, moderate, and vigorous PA was estimated using 8 previously developed cut-points (4 for Actical and 4 for ActiGraph) and 15-s and 30-s epochs. Accelerometer responsiveness for detecting differences in PA between protocols was assessed using standardized response means (SRM). SRM values >/=0.8 represented high responsiveness to change. Both accelerometers showed high responsiveness for all PA intensities (SRMs = 1.2-4.7 for Actical and 1.1-3.3 for ActiGraph). All cut-points and epoch lengths yielded high responsiveness, and choice of cut-points and epoch length had little effect on responsiveness. Thus, both the Actical and ActiGraph can detect change in PA in a simulated free-living setting, irrespective of cut-point selection or epoch length.
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This paper explores possible ways in which design thinking can be used to understand the issues involved in wicked problems. Following brief reviews of both the design thinking and wicked problems literature, we offer a synthesis of these two areas. This paper distinguishes the connections of the various thinking styles inherent in design thinking methodologies and approaches to the phases of wicked problems. We create links between design thinking and cognitive mechanisms such as thinking styles, simple heuristics and schemas that can deepen understanding and effective decision making in the wicked problems in our complex environments.
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Partial shading and rapidly changing irradiance conditions significantly impact on the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These impacts are particularly severe in tropical regions where the climatic conditions result in very large and rapid changes in irradiance. In this paper, a hybrid maximum power point (MPP) tracking (MPPT) technique for PV systems operating under partially shaded conditions witapid irradiance change is proposed. It combines a conventional MPPT and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based MPPT. A low cost method is proposed to predict the global MPP region when expensive irradiance sensors are not available or are not justifiable for cost reasons. It samples the operating point on the stairs of I–V curve and uses a combination of the measured current value at each stair to predict the global MPP region. The conventional MPPT is then used to search within the classified region to get the global MPP. The effectiveness of the proposed MPPT is demonstrated using both simulations and an experimental setup. Experimental comparisons with four existing MPPTs are performed. The results show that the proposed MPPT produces more energy than the other techniques and can effectively track the global MPP with a fast tracking speed under various shading patterns.
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Translocation is an increasingly popular conservation tool from which a wide range of taxa have benefited. However, to our knowledge, bats have not been translocated successfully. Bats differ behaviourally, morphologically and physiologically from the taxa for which translocation the- ory has been developed, so existing guidelines may not be directly transferable. We review previous translocations of bats and discuss characteristics of bats that may require special consideration dur- ing translocation. Their vagility and homing ability, coloniality, roost requirements, potential ability to transmit diseases, susceptibility to anthropomorphic impacts, and cryptic nature have implications for establishing populations, effects of these populations on the release site, and ability to monitor translocation success following release. We hope that our discussion of potential problems will be able to supplement the existing, more generic guidelines to provide a starting point for the planning of bat translocations.
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Under certain conditions, the mathematical models governing the melting of nano-sized particles predict unphysical results, which suggests these models are incomplete. This thesis studies the addition of different physical effects to these models, using analytic and numerical techniques to obtain realistic and meaningful results. In particular, the mathematical "blow-up" of solutions to ill-posed Stefan problems is examined, and the regularisation of this blow-up via kinetic undercooling. Other effects such as surface tension, density change and size-dependent latent heat of fusion are also analysed.