Modelling photochemical production of fine particulates in a toluene/NOx/water vapour system

This work investigates the computer modelling of the photochemical formation of smog products such as ozone and aerosol, in a system containing toluene, NOx and water vapour. In particular, the problem of modelling this process in the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) smog chambers, which utilize outdoor exposure, is addressed. The primary requirement for such modelling is a knowledge of the photolytic rate coefficients. Photolytic rate coefficients of species other than N02 are often related to JNo2 (rate coefficient for the photolysis ofN02) by a simple factor, but for outdoor chambers, this method is prone to error as the diurnal profiles may not be similar in shape. Three methods for the calculation of diurnal JNo2 are investigated. The most suitable method for incorporation into a general model, is found to be one which determines the photolytic rate coefficients for N02, as well as several other species, from actinic flux, absorption cross section and quantum yields. A computer model was developed, based on this method, to calculate in-chamber photolysis rate coefficients for the CSIRO smog chambers, in which ex-chamber rate coefficients are adjusted by accounting for variation in light intensity by transmittance through the Teflon walls, albedo from the chamber floor and radiation attenuation due to clouds. The photochemical formation of secondary aerosol is investigated in a series of toluene-NOx experiments, which were performed in the CSIRO smog chambers. Three stages of aerosol formation, in plots of total particulate volume versus time, are identified: a delay period in which no significant mass of aerosol is formed, a regime of rapid aerosol formation (regime 1) and a second regime of slowed aerosol formation (regime 2). Two models are presented which were developed from the experimental data. One model is empirically based on observations of discrete stages of aerosol formation and readily allows aerosol growth profiles to be calculated. The second model is based on an adaptation of published toluene photooxidation mechanisms and provides some chemical information about the oxidation products. Both models compare favorably against the experimental data. The gross effects of precursor concentrations (toluene, NOx and H20) and ambient conditions (temperature, photolysis rate) on the formation of secondary aerosol are also investigated, primarily using the mechanism model. An increase in [NOx]o results in increased delay time, rate of aerosol formation in regime 1 and volume of aerosol formed in regime 1. This is due to increased formation of dinitrocresol and furanone products. An increase in toluene results in a decrease in the delay time and an increase in the rate of aerosol formation in regime 1, due to enhanced reactivity from the toluene products, such as the radicals from the photolysis of benzaldehyde. Water vapor has very little effect on the formation of aerosol volume, except that rates are slightly increased due to more OH radicals from reaction with 0(1D) from ozone photolysis. Increased temperature results in increased volume of aerosol formed in regime 1 (increased dinitrocresol formation), while increased photolysis rate results in increased rate of aerosol formation in regime 1. Both the rate and volume of aerosol formed in regime 2 are increased by increased temperature or photolysis rate. Both models indicate that the yield of secondary particulates from hydrocarbons (mass concentration aerosol formed/mass concentration hydrocarbon precursor) is proportional to the ratio [NOx]0/[hydrocarbon]0

Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Large area noise evaluation

A software tool (DRONE) has been developed to evaluate road traffic noise in a large area with the consideration of network dynamic traffic flow and the buildings. For more precise estimation of noise in urban network where vehicles are mainly in stop and go running conditions, vehicle sound power level (for acceleration/deceleration cruising and ideal vehicle) is incorporated in DRONE. The calculation performance of DRONE is increased by evaluating the noise in two steps of first estimating the unit noise database and then integrating it with traffic simulation. Details of the process from traffic simulation to contour maps are discussed in the paper and the implementation of DRONE on Tsukuba city is presented

Direct writing of chitosan scaffolds using a robotic system

Purpose – This paper aims to present a novel rapid prototyping (RP) fabrication methods and preliminary characterization for chitosan scaffolds. Design – A desktop rapid prototyping robot dispensing (RPBOD) system has been developed to fabricate scaffolds for tissue engineering (TE) applications. The system is a computer-controlled four-axis machine with a multiple-dispenser head. Neutralization of the acetic acid by the sodium hydroxide results in a precipitate to form a gel-like chitosan strand. The scaffold properties were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, porosity calculation and compression test. An example of fabrication of a freeform hydrogel scaffold is demonstrated. The required geometric data for the freeform scaffold were obtained from CT-scan images and the dispensing path control data were converted form its volume model. The applications of the scaffolds are discussed based on its potential for TE. Findings – It is shown that the RPBOD system can be interfaced with imaging techniques and computational modeling to produce scaffolds which can be customized in overall size and shape allowing tissue-engineered grafts to be tailored to specific applications or even for individual patients. Research limitations/implications – Important challenges for further research are the incorporation of growth factors, as well as cell seeding into the 3D dispensing plotting materials. Improvements regarding the mechanical properties of the scaffolds are also necessary. Originality/value – One of the important aspects of TE is the design scaffolds. For customized TE, it is essential to be able to fabricate 3D scaffolds of various geometric shapes, in order to repair tissue defects. RP or solid free-form fabrication techniques hold great promise for designing 3D customized scaffolds; yet traditional cell-seeding techniques may not provide enough cell mass for larger constructs. This paper presents a novel attempt to fabricate 3D scaffolds, using hydrogels which in the future can be combined with cells.

Grassland management activity data : current sources and future needs

Estimates of potential and actual C sequestration require areal information about various types of management activities. Forest surveys, land use data, and agricultural statistics contribute information enabling calculation of the impacts of current and historical land management on C sequestration in biomass (in forests) or in soil (in agricultural systems). Unfortunately little information exists on the distribution of various management activities that can impact soil C content in grassland systems. Limited information of this type restricts our ability to carry out bottom-up estimates of the current C balance of grasslands or to assess the potential for grasslands to act as C sinks with changes in management. Here we review currently available information about grassland management, how that information could be related to information about the impacts of management on soil C stocks, information that may be available in the future, and needs that remain to be filled before in-depth assessments may be carried out. We also evaluate constraints induced by variability in information sources within and between countries. It is readily apparent that activity data for grassland management is collected less frequently and on a coarser scale than data for forest or agricultural inventories and that grassland activity data cannot be directly translated into IPCC-type factors as is done for IPCC inventories of agricultural soils. However, those management data that are available can serve to delineate broad-scale differences in management activities within regions in which soil C is likely to change in response to changes in management. This, coupled with the distinct possibility of more intensive surveys planned in the future, may enable more accurate assessments of grassland C dynamics with higher resolution both spatially and in the number management activities.

Probabilistic load flow in AC electrified railways

System analysis within the traction power system is vital to the design and operation of an electrified railway. Loads in traction power systems are often characterised by their mobility, wide range of power variations, regeneration and service dependence. In addition, the feeding systems may take different forms in AC electrified railways. Comprehensive system studies are usually carried out by computer simulation. A number of traction power simulators have been available and they allow calculation of electrical interaction among trains and deterministic solutions of the power network. In the paper, a different approach is presented to enable load-flow analysis on various feeding systems and service demands in AC railways by adopting probabilistic techniques. It is intended to provide a different viewpoint to the load condition. Simulation results are given to verify the probabilistic-load-flow models.

Load flow in electrified railway

Probabilistic load flow techniques have been adopted in AC electrified railways to study the load demand under various train service conditions. This paper highlights the differences in probabilistic load flow analysis between the usual power systems and power supply systems in AC railways; discusses the possible difficulties in problem formulation and presents the link between train movement and the corresponding power demand for load flow calculation.

Contracting bubbles in Hele-Shaw cells with a power-law fluid

The problem of bubble contraction in a Hele-Shaw cell is studied for the case in which the surrounding fluid is of power-law type. A small perturbation of the radially symmetric problem is first considered, focussing on the behaviour just before the bubble vanishes, it being found that for shear-thinning fluids the radially symmetric solution is stable, while for shear-thickening fluids the aspect ratio of the bubble boundary increases. The borderline (Newtonian) case considered previously is neutrally stable, the bubble boundary becoming elliptic in shape with the eccentricity of the ellipse depending on the initial data. Further light is shed on the bubble contraction problem by considering a long thin Hele-Shaw cell: for early times the leading-order behaviour is one-dimensional in this limit; however, as the bubble contracts its evolution is ultimately determined by the solution of a Wiener-Hopf problem, the transition between the long-thin limit and the extinction limit in which the bubble vanishes being described by what is in effect a similarity solution of the second kind. This same solution describes the generic (slit-like) extinction behaviour for shear-thickening fluids, the interface profiles that generalise the ellipses that characterise the Newtonian case being constructed by the Wiener-Hopf calculation.

Modernising charity : steps to an alternative architecture for common law charity jurisprudence

This chapter addresses the question, how can the common law concept of charity law be modernised? There are difficulties with the present jurisprudential conception. The focus of the chapter is not on those difficulties, however, but rather on the development of an alternative architecture for common law jurisprudence. The conclusion to which the chapter comes is that charity law can be modernised by a series of steps to include all civil society organisations. It is possible if the ‘technical’ definition of charitable purpose is abandoned in favour of a contemporary, not technical concept of charitiable purpose. This conclusion is reached by proposing a framework, developed from the common law concept of charities, that reconciles into a cohesive jurisprudential architecture all of the laws applying to civil society organisations, not just charities. In this section, first the argument is contextualised in an idea of society and located in a gap in legal theory. An analogy is then offered to introduce the problems in the legal theory applying, not just to charities, but more broadly to civil society organisations. The substantive challenge of mapping an alternative jurisprudence is then taken in steps. The final substantive section conceptualises the changes inherent in a move beyond charities to a jurisprudence centred on civil society organisations and how this would bring legal theory into line with sectoral analysis in other disciplines.

Remediation strategies of shaft and common mode voltages in adjustable speed drive systems

AC motors are largely used in a wide range of modern systems, from household appliances to automated industry applications such as: ventilations systems, fans, pumps, conveyors and machine tool drives. Inverters are widely used in industrial and commercial applications due to the growing need for speed control in ASD systems. Fast switching transients and the common mode voltage, in interaction with parasitic capacitive couplings, may cause many unwanted problems in the ASD applications. These include shaft voltage and leakage currents. One of the inherent characteristics of Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) techniques is the generation of the common mode voltage, which is defined as the voltage between the electrical neutral of the inverter output and the ground. Shaft voltage can cause bearing currents when it exceeds the amount of breakdown voltage level of the thin lubricant film between the inner and outer rings of the bearing. This phenomenon is the main reason for early bearing failures. A rapid development in power switches technology has lead to a drastic decrement of switching rise and fall times. Because there is considerable capacitance between the stator windings and the frame, there can be a significant capacitive current (ground current escaping to earth through stray capacitors inside a motor) if the common mode voltage has high frequency components. This current leads to noises and Electromagnetic Interferences (EMI) issues in motor drive systems. These problems have been dealt with using a variety of methods which have been reported in the literature. However, cost and maintenance issues have prevented these methods from being widely accepted. Extra cost or rating of the inverter switches is usually the price to pay for such approaches. Thus, the determination of cost-effective techniques for shaft and common mode voltage reduction in ASD systems, with the focus on the first step of the design process, is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research – including a description of the research problem, the literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers – is presented in Chapter 1. Electrical power generation from renewable energy sources, such as wind energy systems, has become a crucial issue because of environmental problems and a predicted future shortage of traditional energy sources. Thus, Chapter 2 focuses on the shaft voltage analysis of stator-fed induction generators (IG) and Doubly Fed Induction Generators DFIGs in wind turbine applications. This shaft voltage analysis includes: topologies, high frequency modelling, calculation and mitigation techniques. A back-to-back AC-DC-AC converter is investigated in terms of shaft voltage generation in a DFIG. Different topologies of LC filter placement are analysed in an effort to eliminate the shaft voltage. Different capacitive couplings exist in the motor/generator structure and any change in design parameters affects the capacitive couplings. Thus, an appropriate design for AC motors should lead to the smallest possible shaft voltage. Calculation of the shaft voltage based on different capacitive couplings, and an investigation of the effects of different design parameters are discussed in Chapter 3. This is achieved through 2-D and 3-D finite element simulation and experimental analysis. End-winding parameters of the motor are also effective factors in the calculation of the shaft voltage and have not been taken into account in previous reported studies. Calculation of the end-winding capacitances is rather complex because of the diversity of end winding shapes and the complexity of their geometry. A comprehensive analysis of these capacitances has been carried out with 3-D finite element simulations and experimental studies to determine their effective design parameters. These are documented in Chapter 4. Results of this analysis show that, by choosing appropriate design parameters, it is possible to decrease the shaft voltage and resultant bearing current in the primary stage of generator/motor design without using any additional active and passive filter-based techniques. The common mode voltage is defined by a switching pattern and, by using the appropriate pattern; the common mode voltage level can be controlled. Therefore, any PWM pattern which eliminates or minimizes the common mode voltage will be an effective shaft voltage reduction technique. Thus, common mode voltage reduction of a three-phase AC motor supplied with a single-phase diode rectifier is the focus of Chapter 5. The proposed strategy is mainly based on proper utilization of the zero vectors. Multilevel inverters are also used in ASD systems which have more voltage levels and switching states, and can provide more possibilities to reduce common mode voltage. A description of common mode voltage of multilevel inverters is investigated in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 investigates the elimination techniques of the shaft voltage in a DFIG based on the methods presented in the literature by the use of simulation results. However, it could be shown that every solution to reduce the shaft voltage in DFIG systems has its own characteristics, and these have to be taken into account in determining the most effective strategy. Calculation of the capacitive coupling and electric fields between the outer and inner races and the balls at different motor speeds in symmetrical and asymmetrical shaft and balls positions is discussed in Chapter 8. The analysis is carried out using finite element simulations to determine the conditions which will increase the probability of high rates of bearing failure due to current discharges through the balls and races.

Designing participation : Reconsidering agile ridesharing with evolutionary distributed design thinking

This paper explores design thinking from the perspective of designing new forms of interaction to engage people in community change initiatives. A case study of an agile ridesharing system is presented. We describe the fundamental premise of the design approach taken—deploying simple interactive prototypes for use by communities in order to test the design hypothesis, evolve the design in use and grow the community of participants. Real-time use data and feedback from participants influences our understanding of the design approach and feeds into the gradual evolution of the prototype while it continues to be used. We then reflect upon this form of evolutionary distributed design thinking. In contrast to the conventional IT wisdom of building systems to automate ride matching and fare calculation using structured forms, our initial phase of design revealed a preference for informal messaging, negotiation and caution in the sharing of specific location information.

Finding the remote: Immersive learning in an outback community

Real-world design education projects present particular challenges when in a place remote from and distinctively different to students’ familiar territory. The teaching challenge is to assist students to translate the skills they learn at university into an entirely new context, facilitating a project they will learn from, and the community will value. In 2008 QUT design and engineering students undertook a project called Linking Karumba for this remote Queensland town. They engaged with a landscape, climate and community dramatically different from their base in urban Brisbane, and in a fortnight produced locally responsive strategic planning options. The theoretical approach to this was twofold: they needed to make a rapid shift along a continuum from being “outsiders” towards becoming “insiders” (Relph 1976), and to create designs responsive to local distinctiveness (Cumberlidge and Musgrave 2007). This paper outlines Linking Karumba’s teaching strategy via an analogy with the “immersion” method in bilingual education. Three teaching methods were adopted. Firstly, the overall framework drew on Brockbank and McGill (1998), and Thomas’ (2006a) approaches to student reflective practice. Within this, Girot’s “Four Trace Concepts” (1999) inspired exercises for finding Karumba and moving toward insideness; and a program of community engagement sought immersion in local distinctiveness, and “conversation” between the differing forms of knowledge and capacities embedded within the community and students (Armstrong 1999, Thomas 2006). The responsiveness of the student work to the character of Karumba’s culture and environment indicated remarkable levels of immersion, and the community highly valued the project outcomes: four strategic planning options which attracted $830 000 in state government funding for implementation.

Response shift, recall bias and their effect on measuring change in health-related quality of life amongst older hospital patients

Background: Assessments of change in subjective patient reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are a key component of many clinical and research evaluations. However, conventional longitudinal evaluation of change may not agree with patient perceived change if patients' understanding of the subjective construct under evaluation changes over time (response shift) or if patients' have inaccurate recollection (recall bias). This study examined whether older adults' perception of change is in agreement with conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in their HRQoL over the duration of their hospital stay. It also investigated this level of agreement after adjusting patient perceived change for recall bias that patients may have experienced. Methods: A prospective longitudinal cohort design nested within a larger randomised controlled trial was implemented. 103 hospitalised older adults participated in this investigation at a tertiary hospital facility. The EQ-5D utility and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) scores were used to evaluate HRQoL. Participants completed EQ-5D reports as soon as they were medically stable (within three days of admission) then again immediately prior to discharge. Three methods of change score calculation were used (conventional change, patient perceived change and patient perceived change adjusted for recall bias). Agreement was primarily investigated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and limits of agreement. Results: Overall 101 (98%) participants completed both admission and discharge assessments. The mean (SD) age was 73.3 (11.2). The median (IQR) length of stay was 38 (20-60) days. For agreement between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change: ICCs were 0.34 and 0.40 for EQ-5D utility and VAS respectively. For agreement between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change adjusted for recall bias: ICCs were 0.98 and 0.90 respectively. Discrepancy between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change was considered clinically meaningful for 84 (83.2%) of participants, after adjusting for recall bias this reduced to 8 (7.9%). Conclusions: Agreement between conventional change and patient perceived change was not strong. A large proportion of this disagreement could be attributed to recall bias. To overcome the invalidating effect of response shift (on conventional change) and recall bias (on patient perceived change) a method of adjusting patient perceived change for recall bias has been described.

An assessment system for evaluation of driving competencies

Automobiles have deeply impacted the way in which we travel but they have also contributed to many deaths and injury due to crashes. A number of reasons for these crashes have been pointed out by researchers. Inexperience has been identified as a contributing factor to road crashes. Driver’s driving abilities also play a vital role in judging the road environment and reacting in-time to avoid any possible collision. Therefore driver’s perceptual and motor skills remain the key factors impacting on road safety. Our failure to understand what is really important for learners, in terms of competent driving, is one of the many challenges for building better training programs. Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at decreasing the number of crashes that involve young drivers. Currently, there is a need to develop comprehensive driver evaluation system that benefits from the advances in Driver Assistance Systems. A multidisciplinary approach is necessary to explain how driving abilities evolves with on-road driving experience. To our knowledge, driver assistance systems have never been comprehensively used in a driver training context to assess the safety aspect of driving. The aim and novelty of this thesis is to develop and evaluate an Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) as an automated assessment tool that will help drivers and their trainers to comprehensively view complex driving manoeuvres and potentially provide effective feedback by post processing the data recorded during driving. This system is designed to help driver trainers to accurately evaluate driver performance and has the potential to provide valuable feedback to the drivers. Since driving is dependent on fuzzy inputs from the driver (i.e. approximate distance calculation from the other vehicles, approximate assumption of the other vehicle speed), it is necessary that the evaluation system is based on criteria and rules that handles uncertain and fuzzy characteristics of the driving tasks. Therefore, the proposed IDTS utilizes fuzzy set theory for the assessment of driver performance. The proposed research program focuses on integrating the multi-sensory information acquired from the vehicle, driver and environment to assess driving competencies. After information acquisition, the current research focuses on automated segmentation of the selected manoeuvres from the driving scenario. This leads to the creation of a model that determines a “competency” criterion through the driving performance protocol used by driver trainers (i.e. expert knowledge) to assess drivers. This is achieved by comprehensively evaluating and assessing the data stream acquired from multiple in-vehicle sensors using fuzzy rules and classifying the driving manoeuvres (i.e. overtake, lane change, T-crossing and turn) between low and high competency. The fuzzy rules use parameters such as following distance, gaze depth and scan area, distance with respect to lanes and excessive acceleration or braking during the manoeuvres to assess competency. These rules that identify driving competency were initially designed with the help of expert’s knowledge (i.e. driver trainers). In-order to fine tune these rules and the parameters that define these rules, a driving experiment was conducted to identify the empirical differences between novice and experienced drivers. The results from the driving experiment indicated that significant differences existed between novice and experienced driver, in terms of their gaze pattern and duration, speed, stop time at the T-crossing, lane keeping and the time spent in lanes while performing the selected manoeuvres. These differences were used to refine the fuzzy membership functions and rules that govern the assessments of the driving tasks. Next, this research focused on providing an integrated visual assessment interface to both driver trainers and their trainees. By providing a rich set of interactive graphical interfaces, displaying information about the driving tasks, Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) visualisation module has the potential to give empirical feedback to its users. Lastly, the validation of the IDTS system’s assessment was conducted by comparing IDTS objective assessments, for the driving experiment, with the subjective assessments of the driver trainers for particular manoeuvres. Results show that not only IDTS was able to match the subjective assessments made by driver trainers during the driving experiment but also identified some additional driving manoeuvres performed in low competency that were not identified by the driver trainers due to increased mental workload of trainers when assessing multiple variables that constitute driving. The validation of IDTS emphasized the need for an automated assessment tool that can segment the manoeuvres from the driving scenario, further investigate the variables within that manoeuvre to determine the manoeuvre’s competency and provide integrated visualisation regarding the manoeuvre to its users (i.e. trainers and trainees). Through analysis and validation it was shown that IDTS is a useful assistance tool for driver trainers to empirically assess and potentially provide feedback regarding the manoeuvres undertaken by the drivers.

Exposure of pipe insulation to high temperatures from domestic pumped storage (split) solar water heating systems in Australia and New Zealand

Pipe insulation between the collector and storage tank on pumped storage (commonly called split), solar water heaters can be subject to high temperatures, with a maximum equal to the collector stagnation temperature. The frequency of occurrence of these temperatures is dependent on many factors including climate, hot water demand, system size and efficiency. This paper outlines the findings of a computer modelling study to quantify the frequency of occurrence of pipe temperatures of 80 degrees Celsius or greater at the outlet of the collectors for these systems. This study will help insulation suppliers determine the suitability of their materials for this application. The TRNSYS program was used to model the performance of a common size of domestic split solar system, using both flat plate and evacuated tube, selective surface collectors. Each system was modelled at a representative city in each of the 6 climate zones for Australia and New Zealand, according to AS/NZS4234 - Heat Water Systems - Calculation of energy consumption, and the ORER RECs calculation method. TRNSYS was used to predict the frequency of occurrence of the temperatures that the pipe insulation would be exposed to over an average year, for hot water consumption patterns specified in AS/NZS4234, and for worst case conditions in each of the climate zones. The results show; * For selectively surfaced, flat plate collectors in the hottest location (Alice Sprints) with a medium size hot water demand according to AS/NZS2434, the annual frequency of occurrence of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 33 hours. The frequency of temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius was insignificant. * For evacuated tube collectors in the hottest location (Alice Springs), the annual frequency of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 50 hours. Temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius were significant and were estimated to occur for more than 21 hours per year in this climate zone. Even in Melbourne, temperatures at and above 80 degrees can occur for 12 hours per year and at and above 140 degrees for 5 hours per year. * The worst case identified was for evacuated tube collectors in Alice Springs, with mostly afternoon loads in January. Under these conditions, the frequency of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 10 hours for this month only. Temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius were predicted to occur for 5 hours in January.