Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

Carnivore : an investigation into the ways that serial killers in the Silence of the Lambs, American Psycho and Darkly Dreaming Dexter are representative of consumers

Serial killers are among the most popular and enduring character types in contemporary culture. In this exegesis I investigate one of the reasons for this popularity by examining the representational relationships between serial killers and serial consumers. I initially establish that all monsters, whether they are vampires, werewolves or serial killers, emerge from cultural anxieties and signify the anxiety which gave them birth. I go on to identify that the cultural anxiety at play with serial killers is consumerism and in doing so, I identify two key parallels between the serial killer and the consumer, namely a sense of lack and a desire for transformation. I then examine the ways in which the serial killer is representative of the consumer in three exemplar texts, The Silence of the Lambs by Thomas Harris, American Psycho by Bret Easton Ellis and Darkly Dreaming Dexter by Jeff Lindsay. I go on to self-reflexively examine the creation of my novel Carnivore, the accompanying draft of which has been influenced by both the exemplar texts and the findings of the exegesis.

Asset allocation policy, returns and expenses of superannuation funds : recent evidence based on default options

We examine the asset allocation, returns, and expenses of superannuation funds whose assets are mainly invested in default investment options between 2004 and 2012. A majority of these funds fail to earn returns commensurate with their strategic asset allocation policy. It appears that much of the variation of returns between the funds might be a result of their engaging in significant active management of assets. Our results indicate that returns from active management are negatively related to expenses. We also find strong evidence of economies of scale existing in these superannuation funds across different size categories.

Parties legally bound to unsigned put and call option

The point at which the parties to a negotiation for the sale of land are legally bound can often be difficult to judge. This is particularly so where the parties have agreed a lawyer is to formalise the agreement between them. When the parties have not agreed all matters relating to the transaction, interesting questions arise as to what terms regulate the relationship. In Moffatt Property Development Group Pty Ltd v Hebron Park Pty Ltd [2009] QCA 60 the Queensland Court of Appeal considered first, whether there was a binding agreement to sell and secondly, how the relationship would be regulated in the absence of express agreement in relation to many of the terms.

Review: "Health service frameworks for small rural and remote communities: issues and options" by J. Humphreys, S. Mathews-Cowey, F. Rolley 1996

This monograph is a welcome investigation of current issues in rural health service delivery in smaller communities. The underlying assumption is that existing health service frameworks for rural and remote communities with populations of less than 230 are simply- not appropriate for their needs. With this in mind, the authors identify the strengths and weaknesses of frameworks presently utilised, and offer viable alternatives. They have made information accessible to those who wish to improve the delivery of rural health care, and have provided a catalyst for further research and dialogue on rural health issues...

Investigating attitudes towards three South American destinations in an emerging long haul market using a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE)

Despite the importance of destination image in market competitiveness, and the popularity of the field within tourism literature, there remains a dearth of published research examining travellers’ perceptions of destinations in South America. This manuscript addresses this gap by testing a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) associated with three South American countries; Chile, Brazil and Argentina. The introduction of direct air links and a free trade agreement in 2008 has led destination marketing organisations (DMOs) in these countries to increase promotional efforts in the Australian market. This study shows that the CBBE model is an appropriate tool to explore consumers’ attitudes in the long haul travel context. The findings provide DMOs of the three countries studied, with benchmarks against which to compare the impact of future marketing communications in Australia. The results provide increased transparency and accountability to stakeholders, such as South American tourism businesses and Australian travel intermediaries.

A Century of American Economic Review : Insights on Critical Factors in Journal Publishing

By using information collected from numerous American Economic Review publications from the last 100 years, Torgler and Piatti examine the top publishing institutions to determine their most renowned AER papers based on citation success. Areas of interest include how often an individual can publish in the AER, how equally successful citations are distributed and who the top AER publishing authors are. The book explores what the level of cooperation is among authors and what drives systems such as the alphabetical name ordering. Torgler and Piatti critically examine the individual characteristics of AER authors, editors, editorial board members and referees and even tackle more intricate details such as the frequency of female publications in the AER. The authors observe and analyse the relationship between academic age and publication performance to see if there is any pattern on these factors and citation success. The book then goes on to analyse data concerning awards, and whether awards can increase the probability of publishing in the AER at a later stage

Perdido ties together Shell digital oilfield technologies

Located in the Gulf of Mexico in nearly 8,000 ft of water, the Perdido project is the deepest spar application to date in the world and Shell’s first fully integrated application of its inhouse digital oilfield technology— called “Smart Field”—in the Western hemisphere. Developed by Shell on behalf of partners BP and Chevron, the spar and the subsea equipment connected to it will eventually capture about an order of magnitude more data than is collected from any other Shelldesigned and -managed development operating in the Gulf of Mexico. This article describes Shell’s digital oilfield design philosophy, briefly explains the five design elements that underpin “smartness” in Shell’s North and South American operations and sheds light on the process by which a highly customized digital oilfield development and management plan was put together for Perdido. Although Perdido is the first instance in North and South America in which these design elements and processes were applied in an integrated way, all of Shell’s future new developments in the Western hemisphere are expected to follow the same overarching design principles. Accordingly, this article uses Perdido as a real-world example to outline the high-level details of Shell’s digital oilfield design philosophy and processes.

Perdido : the first Smart Field in the western hemisphere

Located in the Gulf of Mexico in nearly 8,000 feet of water, the Perdido development is the world’s deepest spar and Shell’s first Smart Field in the Western hemisphere. Jointly developed by Shell, BP, and Chevron, the spar and the subsea equipment connected to it will eventually capture approximately an order of magnitude more data than is collected from any other Shell-designed and managed development currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico. This paper will describe Shell’s Smart Fields design philosophy, briefly explain the five design elements that underpin “smartness” in Shell’s North and South American operations—specifically, remote assisted operations, exception-based surveillance, collaborative work environments, hydrocarbon development tools and workflows, and Smart Fields Foundation IT infrastructure—and shed light on the process by which a highly customized Smart Fields development and management plan was put together for Perdido.

Comparison of the coat protein, movement protein and RNA polymerase gene sequences of Australian, Chinese, and American isolates of barley yellow dwarf virus transmitted by Rhopalosiphum padi

Barley yellow dwarf luteovirus-GPV (BYDV-GPV) is a common problem in Chinese wheat crops but is unrecorded elsewhere. A defining characteristic of GPV is its capacity to be transmitted efficiently by both Schizaphis graminum and Rhopaloshiphum padi. This dual aphid species transmission contrasts with those of BYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV, globally distributed viruses, which are efficiently transmitted only by Rhopaloshiphum padi and Schizaphis graminum respectively. The viral RNA sequences encoding the coat protein (22K) gene, the movement protein (17K) gene, the region surrounding the conserved GDD motif of the polymerase gene and the intergenic sequences between these genes were determined for GPV and an Australian isolate of BYDV-RPV (RPVa). In all three genes, the sequences of GPV and RPVa were more similar to those of an American isolate of BYDV-RPV (RPVu) than to any other luteovirus for which there is data available. RPVa and RPVu were very similar, especially their coat proteins which had 97% identity at the amino acid level. The coat protein of GPV had 76% and 78% amino acid identity with RPVa and RPVu respectively. The data suggest that RPVu and RPVa are correctly named as strains of the same serotype and that GPV is sufficiently different from either RPV strain to be considered a distinct BYDV type. The coat protein and movement protein genes of GPV are very dissimilar to SGV. The polymerase sequences of RPVu, RPVa and GPV show close affinities with those of the sobemo-like luteoviruses and little similarity with those of the carmo-like luteoviruses. The sequences of the coat proteins, movement proteins and the polymerase segments of BYDV serotypes, other than RPV and GPV, form a cluster that is separate from their counterpart sequences from dicot-infecting luteoviruses. The RPV and GPV isolates consistently fall within a dicot-infecting cluster. This suggests that RPV and GPV evolved from within this group of viruses. Since these other viruses all infect dicots it seems likely that their common ancestor infected a dicot and that RPV and GPV evolved from a virus that switched hosts from a dicot to a monocot.