Agent-based model of passenger flows in airport terminals

Passenger flow studies in airport terminals have shown consistent statistical relationships between airport spatial layout and pedestrian movement, facilitating prediction of movement from terminal designs. However, these studies are done at an aggregate level and do not incorporate how individual passengers make decisions at a microscopic level. Therefore, they do not explain the formation of complex movement flows. In addition, existing models mostly focus on standard airport processing procedures such as immigration and security, but seldom consider discretionary activities of passengers, and thus are not able to truly describe the full range of passenger flows within airport terminals. As the route-choice decision-making of passengers involves many uncertain factors within the airport terminals, the mechanisms to fulfill the capacity of managing the route-choice have proven difficult to acquire and quantify. Could the study of cognitive factors of passengers (i.e. human mental preferences of deciding which on-airport facility to use) be useful to tackle these issues? Assuming the movement in virtual simulated environments can be analogous to movement in real environments, passenger behaviour dynamics can be similar to those generated in virtual experiments. Three levels of dynamics have been devised for motion control: the localised field, tactical level, and strategic level. A localised field refers to basic motion capabilities, such as walking speed, direction and avoidance of obstacles. The other two fields represent cognitive route-choice decision-making. This research views passenger flow problems via a "bottom-up approach", regarding individual passengers as independent intelligent agents who can behave autonomously and are able to interact with others and the ambient environment. In this regard, passenger flow formation becomes an emergent phenomenon of large numbers of passengers interacting with others. In the thesis, first, the passenger flow in airport terminals was investigated. Discretionary activities of passengers were integrated with standard processing procedures in the research. The localised field for passenger motion dynamics was constructed by a devised force-based model. Next, advanced traits of passengers (such as their desire to shop, their comfort with technology and their willingness to ask for assistance) were formulated to facilitate tactical route-choice decision-making. The traits consist of quantified measures of mental preferences of passengers when they travel through airport terminals. Each category of the traits indicates a decision which passengers may take. They were inferred through a Bayesian network model by analysing the probabilities based on currently available data. Route-choice decision-making was finalised by calculating corresponding utility results based on those probabilities observed. Three sorts of simulation outcomes were generated: namely, queuing length before checkpoints, average dwell time of passengers at service facilities, and instantaneous space utilisation. Queuing length reflects the number of passengers who are in a queue. Long queues no doubt cause significant delay in processing procedures. The dwell time of each passenger agent at the service facilities were recorded. The overall dwell time of passenger agents at typical facility areas were analysed so as to demonstrate portions of utilisation in the temporal aspect. For the spatial aspect, the number of passenger agents who were dwelling within specific terminal areas can be used to estimate service rates. All outcomes demonstrated specific results by typical simulated passenger flows. They directly reflect terminal capacity. The simulation results strongly suggest that integrating discretionary activities of passengers makes the passenger flows more intuitive, observing probabilities of mental preferences by inferring advanced traits make up an approach capable of carrying out tactical route-choice decision-making. On the whole, the research studied passenger flows in airport terminals by an agent-based model, which investigated individual characteristics of passengers and their impact on psychological route-choice decisions of passengers. Finally, intuitive passenger flows in airport terminals were able to be realised in simulation.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Service-oriented architecture integration within enterprise architecture : a-priori model

This paper proposes that critical realism can provide a useful theoretical foundation to study enterprise architecture (EA) evolution. Specifically it will investigate the practically relevant and academically challenging question of how EAs integrate the Service-oriented Architecture (SOA). Archer’s Morphogenetic theory is used as an analytical approach to distinguish the architectural conditions under which SOA is introduced, to study the relationships between these conditions and SOA introduction, and to reflect on EA evolution (elaborations) that then take place. The focus lies on the reasons why EA evolution takes place (or not) and what architectural changes happen. This paper uses the findings of a literature review to build an a-priori model informed by Archer’s theory to understand EA evolution in a field that often lacks a solid theoretical groundwork. The findings are threefold. First, EA can evolve on different levels (different integration outcomes). Second, the integration outcomes are classified into three levels: business architecture, information systems architecture and technology architecture. Third, the analytical separation using Archer’s theory is helpful in order to understand how these different integration outcomes are generated.

A recommendation approach dealing with multiple market segments

A new community and communication type of social networks - online dating - are gaining momentum. With many people joining in the dating network, users become overwhelmed by choices for an ideal partner. A solution to this problem is providing users with partners recommendation based on their interests and activities. Traditional recommendation methods ignore the users’ needs and provide recommendations equally to all users. In this paper, we propose a recommendation approach that employs different recommendation strategies to different groups of members. A segmentation method using the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is proposed to customize users’ needs. Then a targeted recommendation strategy is applied to each identified segment. Empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms several existing recommendation methods.

Rough set based approach to text classification

Textual document set has become an important and rapidly growing information source in the web. Text classification is one of the crucial technologies for information organisation and management. Text classification has become more and more important and attracted wide attention of researchers from different research fields. In this paper, many feature selection methods, the implement algorithms and applications of text classification are introduced firstly. However, because there are much noise in the knowledge extracted by current data-mining techniques for text classification, it leads to much uncertainty in the process of text classification which is produced from both the knowledge extraction and knowledge usage, therefore, more innovative techniques and methods are needed to improve the performance of text classification. It has been a critical step with great challenge to further improve the process of knowledge extraction and effectively utilization of the extracted knowledge. Rough Set decision making approach is proposed to use Rough Set decision techniques to more precisely classify the textual documents which are difficult to separate by the classic text classification methods. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of existing text classification technologies, to demonstrate the Rough Set concepts and the decision making approach based on Rough Set theory for building more reliable and effective text classification framework with higher precision, to set up an innovative evaluation metric named CEI which is very effective for the performance assessment of the similar research, and to propose a promising research direction for addressing the challenging problems in text classification, text mining and other relative fields.

Video analytics for the detection of near-miss incidents on approach to railway level crossings

Recent modelling of socio-economic costs by the Australian railway industry in 2010 has estimated the cost of level crossing accidents to exceed AU$116 million annually. To better understand causal factors that contribute to these accidents, the Cooperative Research Centre for Rail Innovation is running a project entitled Baseline Level Crossing Video. The project aims to improve the recording of level crossing safety data by developing an intelligent system capable of detecting near-miss incidents and capturing quantitative data around these incidents. To detect near-miss events at railway level crossings a video analytics module is being developed to analyse video footage obtained from forward-facing cameras installed on trains. This paper presents a vision base approach for the detection of these near-miss events. The video analytics module is comprised of object detectors and a rail detection algorithm, allowing the distance between a detected object and the rail to be determined. An existing publicly available Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG) based object detector algorithm is used to detect various types of vehicles in each video frame. As vehicles are usually seen from a sideway view from the cabin’s perspective, the results of the vehicle detector are verified using an algorithm that can detect the wheels of each detected vehicle. Rail detection is facilitated using a projective transformation of the video, such that the forward-facing view becomes a bird’s eye view. Line Segment Detector is employed as the feature extractor and a sliding window approach is developed to track a pair of rails. Localisation of the vehicles is done by projecting the results of the vehicle and rail detectors on the ground plane allowing the distance between the vehicle and rail to be calculated. The resultant vehicle positions and distance are logged to a database for further analysis. We present preliminary results regarding the performance of a prototype video analytics module on a data set of videos containing more than 30 different railway level crossings. The video data is captured from a journey of a train that has passed through these level crossings.

Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Asking for something different from our donors : factors influencing persuasion success

BACKGROUND Demand for plasma-derived products, and consequently plasmapheresis donors, continues to rise. This study aims to identify the factors that facilitate the persuasion success of conversations with whole blood (WB) donors to convert to plasmapheresis donation within a voluntary non-remunerated context. METHOD Surveys were sent to WB donors after a plasmapheresis conversion conversation with an Agency staff member: in center (sample 1) or via a call center (sample 2). Participants reported the number of donor initiated and Blood Collection Agency (BCA) initiated conversations about plasma, experienced in the prior 12 months. Perceptions of the most recent conversation, donor oriented and conversion oriented were also reported. The BCA provided WB donation history for the prior five years. Participants’ intentions to make a first plasmapheresis donation were captured and any subsequent plasmapheresis donation was objectively recorded. RESULTS Conversion rates were higher for in-center than call center based conversations. For both samples, path analyses revealed that intentions are associated with conversion. Prior WB donations are negatively associated, while donor initiated and donor orientated conversations are positively associated with conversion intentions. Results for agent initiated conversations and conversion orientated conversations were mixed across samples. CONCLUSION Converting suitable WB donors to plasmapheresis is best achieved early in the donor’s career using face-to-face conversations with collection center staff. BCAs should facilitate donor initiated conversations through promotional campaigns that encourage donors to approach staff. Conversations that focus on donors’ needs and welfare more effectively encourage conversion intentions than those perceived as pushing the requirements of the BCA.

Leadership in problem-oriented policing

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of leadership in problem-oriented policing (POP). Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses interrupted time series models to isolate the impact on crime trends of a transformational leader's efforts to spearhead the implementation of a program of POP, called the problem solving model (PSM), in a southern state in Australia. Findings – This paper finds that the PSM led directly to an impact on overall crime, with a significant reduction in crimes per 100,000 persons per year after the introduction of the PSM. The majority of the overall crime drop attributable to implementation of POP was driven by reductions in property crime. It was noted that the leadership influence of the PSM was not effective in reducing all types of crime. Crimes against the person where not affected by the introduction of the PSM and public nuisance crimes largely followed the forecasted, upward trajectory. Practical implications – The driver behind the PSM was Commissioner Hyde and the success of the PSM is largely attributable to his strong commitment to transformational leadership and a top-down approach to implementation. These qualities encapsulate the original ideas behind POP that Goldstein (1979, 2003), back in 1979, highlighted as critical for the success of future POP programs. Social implications – Reducing crime is an important part of creating safe communities and improving quality of life for all citizens. This research shows that successful implementation of the PSM within South Australia under the strong leadership of Commissioner Hyde was a major factor in reducing property crime and overall crime rates. Originality/value – This paper is valuable because it demonstrates the link between strong leadership in policing, the commissioner's vision for POP and how his vision then translated into widespread adoption of POP. The study empirically shows that the statewide adoption of POP led to significant reductions in crime, particularly property crime.

A novel process of group-oriented question reduction for rule-based recommendation websites

Several websites utilise a rule-base recommendation system, which generates choices based on a series of questionnaires, for recommending products to users. This approach has a high risk of customer attrition and the bottleneck is the questionnaire set. If the questioning process is too long, complex or tedious; users are most likely to quit the questionnaire before a product is recommended to them. If the questioning process is short; the user intensions cannot be gathered. The commonly used feature selection methods do not provide a satisfactory solution. We propose a novel process combining clustering, decisions tree and association rule mining for a group-oriented question reduction process. The question set is reduced according to common properties that are shared by a specific group of users. When applied on a real-world website, the proposed combined method outperforms the methods where the reduction of question is done only by using association rule mining or only by observing distribution within the group.

Developing Co-operating Legal Knowledge Based Systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work supplements rule-based reasoning with case based reasoning and intelligent information retrieval. This research, specifies an approach to the case based retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object-oriented / rule-based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. Machine learning techniques and a distributed agent architecture are used to help simulate the reasoning process of lawyers. In this paper, we outline our implementation of the hybrid IKBALS II Rule Based Reasoning / Case Based Reasoning system. It makes extensive use of an automated case representation editor and background information.

A controlled, rapid approach to curriculum change

Teachers are continually bombarded with change programs for improvements in areas such as literacy and numeracy, however; the focus is often on the program and not on results (Pertuzé, Calder, Greitzer & Lucas, 2010). When the inevitable failure follows (Fullan, 2005; Gross, Giacquinta & Bernstein, 1971)the school moves on to a new activities-based model.

The IKBALS project: multi-modal reasoning in legal knowledge based systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work integrates rule based and case based reasoning with intelligent information retrieval. When using the case based reasoning methodology, or in our case the specialisation of case based retrieval, we need to be aware of how to retrieve relevant experience. Our research, in the legal domain, specifies an approach to the retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object oriented/rule based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. We use a distributed agent architecture to help support the reasoning process of lawyers. Our approach to integrating rule based reasoning, case based reasoning and case based retrieval is contrasted to the CABARET and PROLEXS architectures which rely on a centralised blackboard architecture. We discuss in detail how our various cooperating agents interact, and provide examples of the system at work. The IKBALS system uses a specialised induction algorithm to induce rules from cases. These rules are then used as indices during the case based retrieval process. Because we aim to build legal support tools which can be modified to suit various domains rather than single purpose legal expert systems, we focus on principles behind developing legal knowledge based systems. The original domain chosen was theAccident Compensation Act 1989 (Victoria, Australia), which relates to the provision of benefits for employees injured at work. For various reasons, which are indicated in the paper, we changed our domain to that ofCredit Act 1984 (Victoria, Australia). This Act regulates the provision of loans by financial institutions. The rule based part of our system which provides advice on the Credit Act has been commercially developed in conjunction with a legal firm. We indicate how this work has lead to the development of a methodology for constructing rule based legal knowledge based systems. We explain the process of integrating this existing commercial rule based system with the case base reasoning and retrieval architecture.

Agent-based application on different boarding strategies

In this paper we implemented six different boarding strategies (Wilma, Steffen, Reverse Pyramid, Random, Blocks and By letter) in order to minimize boarding time and turnaround time for Boeing 777 and Airbus 380 aircrafts by using Agent-based modelling approach. In the simulation, we divided passengers into six different categories which are group size more than 5 people, passengers with child, gold members, first class passengers, business class passengers and economy class passengers. Results from the simulation demonstrates Reverse Pyramid method is the best boarding method for Boeing 777 and Steffen method is the best boarding method for Airbus 380.

An object-oriented design of a World Model for autonomous city vehicles

This paper presents an object-oriented world model for the road traffic environment of autonomous (driver-less) city vehicles. The developed World Model is a software component of the autonomous vehicle's control system, which represents the vehicle's view of its road environment. Regardless whether the information is a priori known, obtained through on-board sensors, or through communication, the World Model stores and updates information in real-time, notifies the decision making subsystem about relevant events, and provides access to its stored information. The design is based on software design patterns, and its application programming interface provides both asynchronous and synchronous access to its information. Experimental results of both a 3D simulation and real-world experiments show that the approach is applicable and real-time capable.