Learning to act in uncertain environments : technical perspective

The problem of decision making in an uncertain environment arises in many diverse contexts: deciding whether to keep a hard drive spinning in a net-book; choosing which advertisement to post to a Web site visitor; choosing how many newspapers to order so as to maximize profits; or choosing a route to recommend to a driver given limited and possibly out-of-date information about traffic conditions. All are sequential decision problems, since earlier decisions affect subsequent performance; all require adaptive approaches, since they involve significant uncertainty. The key issue in effectively solving problems like these is known as the exploration/exploitation trade-off: If I am at a cross-roads, when should I go in the most advantageous direction among those that I have already explored, and when should I strike out in a new direction, in the hopes I will discover something better?

Classification with a reject option using a hinge loss

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. Just as in the conventional classification problem, minimization of the sample average of the cost is a difficult optimization problem. As an alternative, we propose the optimization of a certain convex loss function φ, analogous to the hinge loss used in support vector machines (SVMs). Its convexity ensures that the sample average of this surrogate loss can be efficiently minimized. We study its statistical properties. We show that minimizing the expected surrogate loss—the φ-risk—also minimizes the risk. We also study the rate at which the φ-risk approaches its minimum value. We show that fast rates are possible when the conditional probability P(Y=1|X) is unlikely to be close to certain critical values.

Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games

A number of learning problems can be cast as an Online Convex Game: on each round, a learner makes a prediction x from a convex set, the environment plays a loss function f, and the learner’s long-term goal is to minimize regret. Algorithms have been proposed by Zinkevich, when f is assumed to be convex, and Hazan et al., when f is assumed to be strongly convex, that have provably low regret. We consider these two settings and analyze such games from a minimax perspective, proving minimax strategies and lower bounds in each case. These results prove that the existing algorithms are essentially optimal.

Productivity, Technical and Efficiency Change in Singapore’s Services Sector, 2005 to 2008

The current study was motivated by statements made by the Economic Strategies Committee that Singapore’s recent productivity levels in services were well below countries such as the US, Japan and Hong Kong. Massive employment of foreign workers was cited as the reason for poor productivity levels. To shed more light on Singapore’s falling productivity, a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index was employed which provides measures of productivity change, technical change and efficiency change. The findings reveal that growth in total factor productivity was attributed to technical change with no improvement in efficiency change. Such results suggest that gains from TFP were input-driven rather than from a ‘best-practice’ approach such as improvements in operations or better resource allocation.

Binang gurri: turning a deaf ear to indigenous hearing loss

Objective: This paper asks whether Indigenous health policies might be improved if governments listened to Indigenous voices, both Australian and those who drafted the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, 2007. Methods: A fundamental tenet of the Declaration, which Australia endorsed in 2009, is respect for Indigenous knowledge and voice. The author analyses legal, cultural and historical sources for evidence of this respect. The metaphorical and empirical framework of the analysis is the epidemic of otitis media among Indigenous children. Results: A survey of Indigenous advice about health clearly demonstrates that access to their land and respect for the diversity of Indigenous cultures should inform health policies. Despite, however, claiming to consult Indigenous peoples, policy-makers have not been listening. In many Indigenous languages not listening, or ‘bad ears’, has connotations of disrespect. Conclusions: By turning a deaf ear to Indigenous knowledge governments are undermining any respect Indigenous peoples may have for them and their policies. A new approach is needed. Implications: The Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples can provide federal, state and territory governments with benchmarks against which health policy can be developed and implemented. Authentic consultation could restore Indigenous confidence in government policies.

Loss-of-function fibroblast growth factor receptor-2 mutations in melanoma

We report that 10% of melanoma tumors and cell lines harbor mutations in the fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) gene. These novel mutations include three truncating mutations and 20 missense mutations occurring at evolutionary conserved residues in FGFR2 as well as among all four FGFRs. The mutation spectrum is characteristic of those induced by UV radiation. Mapping of these mutations onto the known crystal structures of FGFR2 followed by in vitro and in vivo studies show that these mutations result in receptor loss of function through several distinct mechanisms, including loss of ligand binding affinity, impaired receptor dimerization, destabilization of the extracellular domains, and reduced kinase activity. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of loss-of-function mutations in a class IV receptor tyrosine kinase in cancer. Taken into account with our recent discovery of activating FGFR2 mutations in endometrial cancer, we suggest that FGFR2 may join the list of genes that play context-dependent opposing roles in cancer.

Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

An exploration of the technical, social and macro-societal pressures influencing the adoption of online social networking services by organisations

Measuring the business value that Internet technologies deliver for organisations has proven to be a difficult and elusive task, given their complexity and increased embeddedness within the value chain. Yet, despite the lack of empirical evidence that links the adoption of Information Technology (IT) with increased financial performance, many organisations continue to adopt new technologies at a rapid rate. This is evident in the widespread adoption of Web 2.0 online Social Networking Services (SNSs) such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. These new Internet based technologies, widely used for social purposes, are being employed by organisations to enhance their business communication processes. However, their use is yet to be correlated with an increase in business performance. Owing to the conflicting empirical evidence that links prior IT applications with increased business performance, IT, Information Systems (IS), and E-Business Model (EBM) research has increasingly looked to broader social and environmental factors as a means for examining and understanding the broader influences shaping IT, IS and E-Business (EB) adoption behaviour. Findings from these studies suggest that organisations adopt new technologies as a result of strong external pressures, rather than a clear measure of enhanced business value. In order to ascertain if this is the case with the adoption of SNSs, this study explores how organisations are creating value (and measuring that value) with the use of SNSs for business purposes, and the external pressures influencing their adoption. In doing so, it seeks to address two research questions: 1. What are the external pressures influencing organisations to adopt SNSs for business communication purposes? 2. Are SNSs providing increased business value for organisations, and if so, how is that value being captured and measured? Informed by the background literature fields of IT, IS, EBM, and Web 2.0, a three-tiered theoretical framework is developed that combines macro-societal, social and technological perspectives as possible causal mechanisms influencing the SNS adoption event. The macro societal view draws on the concept of Castells. (1996) network society and the behaviour of crowds, herds and swarms, to formulate a new explanatory concept of the network vortex. The social perspective draws on key components of institutional theory (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983, 1991), and the technical view draws from the organising vision concept developed by Swanson and Ramiller (1997). The study takes a critical realist approach, and conducts four stages of data collection and one stage of data coding and analysis. Stage 1 consisted of content analysis of websites and SNSs of many organisations, to identify the types of business purposes SNSs are being used for. Stage 2 also involved content analysis of organisational websites, in order to identify suitable sample organisations in which to conduct telephone interviews. Stage 3 consisted of conducting 18 in-depth, semi-structured telephone interviews within eight Australian organisations from the Media/Publishing and Galleries, Libraries, Archives and Museum (GLAM) industries. These sample organisations were considered leaders in the use of SNSs technologies. Stage 4 involved an SNS activity count of the organisations interviewed in Stage 3, in order to rate them as either Advanced Innovator (AI) organisations, or Learning Focussed (LF) organisations. A fifth stage of data coding and analysis of all four data collection stages was conducted, based on the theoretical framework developed for the study, and using QSR NVivo 8 software. The findings from this study reveal that SNSs have been adopted by organisations for the purpose of increasing business value, and as a result of strong social and macro-societal pressures. SNSs offer organisations a wide range of value enhancing opportunities that have broader benefits for customers and society. However, measuring the increased business value is difficult with traditional Return On Investment (ROI) mechanisms, ascertaining the need for new value capture and measurement rationales, to support the accountability of SNS adoption practices. The study also identified the presence of technical, social and macro-societal pressures, all of which influenced SNS adoption by organisations. These findings contribute important theoretical insight into the increased complexity of pressures influencing technology adoption rationales by organisations, and have important practical implications for practice, by reflecting the expanded global online networks in which organisations now operate. The limitations of the study include the small number of sample organisations in which interviews were conducted, its limited generalisability, and the small range of SNSs selected for the study. However, these were compensated in part by the expertise of the interviewees, and the global significance of the SNSs that were chosen. Future research could replicate the study to a larger sample from different industries, sectors and countries. It could also explore the life cycle of SNSs in a longitudinal study, and map how the technical, social and macro-societal pressures are emphasised through stages of the life cycle. The theoretical framework could also be applied to other social fad technology adoption studies.

Loss of chance in medical negligence claims now a lost cause?

The question whether the loss of chance of a better medical outcome in cases of medical negligence should be recognised as actionable damage is ‘a question which has divided courts and commentators throughout the common law world.’ In April 2010, the High Court handed down its anticipated decision in the case of Tabet (by her Tutor Sheiban) v Gett (2010) 240 CLR 537. The issue considered by the court was whether the appellant could claim in negligence for the loss of a chance of a better medical outcome. This issue had not been considered by the High Court previously, the most relevant cases being Rufo v Hosking (2004) 61 NSWLR 678 and Gavalas v Singh (2001) 3 VLR 404. Claiming for a loss of chance in a personal injury action raises questions as to recognised damage and causation, and the members of the High Court considered both of these.

Inferior field loss increases rate of falls in older adults with glaucoma

PURPOSE: To examine the visual predictors of falls and injurious falls among older adults with glaucoma. METHODS: Prospective falls data were collected for 71 community-dwelling adults with primary open-angle glaucoma, mean age 73.9 ± 5.7 years, for one year using monthly falls diaries. Baseline assessment of central visual function included high-contrast visual acuity and Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity. Binocular integrated visual fields were derived from monocular Humphrey Field Analyser plots. Rate ratios (RR) for falls and injurious falls with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were based on negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: During the one year follow-up, 31 (44%) participants experienced at least one fall and 22 (31%) experienced falls that resulted in an injury. Greater visual impairment was associated with increased falls rate, independent of age and gender. In a multivariate model, more extensive field loss in the inferior region was associated with higher rate of falls (RR 1.57, 95%CI 1.06, 2.32) and falls with injury (RR 1.80, 95%CI 1.12, 2.98), adjusted for all other vision measures and potential confounding factors. Visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and superior field loss were not associated with the rate of falls; topical beta-blocker use was also not associated with increased falls risk. CONCLUSIONS: Falls are common among older adults with glaucoma and occur more frequently in those with greater visual impairment, particularly in the inferior field region. This finding highlights the importance of the inferior visual field region in falls risk and assists in identifying older adults with glaucoma at risk of future falls, for whom potential interventions should be targeted. KEY WORDS: glaucoma, visual field, visual impairment, falls, injury

An actor-network research frame for analysing complex socio-technical situations

This paper presents a “research frame” which we have found useful in analyzing complex socio- technical situations. The research frame is based on aspects of actor-network theory: “interressment”, “enrollment”, “points of passage” and the “trial of strength”. Each of these aspects are described in turn, making clear their purpose in the overall research frame. Having established the research frame it is used to analyse two examples. First, the use of speech recognition technology is examined in two different contexts, showing how to apply the frame to compare and contrast current situations. Next, a current medical consultation context is described and the research frame is used to consider how it could change with innovative technology. In both examples, the research frame shows that the use of an artefact or technology must be considered together with the context in which it is used.

Psycho-markers of weight loss. The roles of TFEQ Disinhibition and Restraint in exercise-induced weight management

Eating behaviour traits, namely Disinhibition and Restraint, have the potential to exert an effect on food intake and energy balance. The effectiveness of exercise as a method of weight management could be influenced by these traits. Fifty eight overweight and obese participants completed 12-weeks of supervised exercise. Each participant was prescribed supervised exercise based on an expenditure of 500 kcal/session, 5 d/week for 12-weeks. Following 12-weeks of exercise there was a significant reduction in mean body weight (-3.26 ± 3.63 kg), fat mass (FM: -3.26 ± 2.64 kg), BMI (-1.16 ± 1.17 kg/m2)and waist circumference (WC: -5.0 ± 3.23 cm). Regression analyses revealed a higher baseline Disinhibition score was associated with a greater reduction in BMI and WC, while Internal Disinhibition was associated with a larger decrease in weight, %FM and WC. Neither baseline Restraint or Hunger were associated with any of the anthropometric markers at baseline or after 12-weeks. Furthermore, after 12-weeks of exercise, a decrease in Disinhibition and increase in Restraint were associated with a greater reduction in WC, whereas only Restraint was associated with a decrease in weight. Post-hoc analysis of the sub-factors revealed a decrease in External Disinhibition and increase in Flexible Restraint were associated with weight loss. However, an increase in Rigid Restraint was associated with a reduction in %FM and WC. These findings suggest that exercise-induced weight loss is more marked in individuals with a high level of Disinhibition. These data demonstrate the important roles that Disinhibition and Restraint play in the relationship between exercise and energy balance.

Technical note : a technique for measuring the surface area of articular cartilage in acetabular fractures

The aim of this study was to develop a reliable technique for measuring the area of a curved surface from an axial computed tomography (CT) scan and to apply this clinically in the measurement of articular cartilage surface area in acetabular fractures. The method used was a triangulation algorithm. In order to determine the accuracy of the technique, areas of hemispheres of known size were measured to give the percentage error in area measurement. Seven such hemispheres were machined into a Perspex block and their area measured geometrically, and also from CT scans by means of the triangulation algorithm. Scans of 1, 2 and 4 mm slice thickness and separation were used. The error varied with slice thickness and hemisphere diameter. It was shown that the 2 mm slice thickness provides the most accurate area measurement, while 1 mm cuts overestimate and 4 mm cuts underestimate the area. For a hemisphere diameter of 5 cm, which is of similar size to the acetabulum, the error was -11.2% for 4 mm cuts, +4.2% for 2 mm cuts and + 5.1% for 1 mm cuts. As expected, area measurement was more accurate for larger hemispheres. This method can be applied clinically to quantify acetabular fractures by measuring the percentage area of intact articular cartilage. In the case of both column fractures, the percentage area of secondary congruence can be determined. This technique of quantifying acetabular fractures has a potential clinical application as a prognostic factor and an indication for surgery in the long term.