Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

School-based programs for increasing connectedness and reducing risk behavior : a systematic review

School connectedness has a significant impact on adolescent outcomes, including reducing risk taking behavior. This paper critically examines the literature on school-based programs targeting increased connectedness for reductions in risk taking. Fourteen articles describing seven different school-based programs were reviewed. Programs drew on a range of theories to increase school connectedness, and evaluations conducted for the majority of programs demonstrated positive changes in school connectedness, risk behavior, or a combination of the two. Many of the reviewed programs involved widespread school system change, however, which is frequently a complex and time consuming task. Future research is needed to examine the extent of intervention complexity required to result in change. This review also showed a lack of consistency in definitions and measurement of connectedness as well as few mediation analyses testing assumptions of impact on risk taking behavior through increases in school connectedness. Additionally, this review revealed very limited evaluation of the elements of multi-component programs that are most effective in increasing school connectedness and reducing adolescent risk taking.

Upper-body morbidity after breast cancer : incidence and evidence for evaluation, prevention, and management within a prospective surveillance model of care

The purpose of this paper is to review the incidence of upper-body morbidity (arm and breast symptoms, impairments, and lymphedema), methods for diagnosis, and prevention and treatment strategies. It was also the purpose to highlight the evidence base for integration of prospective surveillance for upper-body morbidity within standard clinical care of women with breast cancer. Between 10% and 64% of women report upper-body symptoms between 6 months and 3 years after breast cancer, and approximately 20% develop lymphedema. Symptoms remain common into longer-term survivorship, and although lymphedema may be transient for some, those who present with mild lymphedema are at increased risk of developing moderate to severe lymphedema. The etiology of morbidity seems to be multifactorial, with the most consistent risk factors being those associated with extent of treatment. However, known risk factors cannot reliably distinguish between those who will and will not develop upper-body morbidity. Upper-body morbidity may be treatable with physical therapy. There is also evidence in support of integrating regular surveillance for upper-body morbidity into the routine care provided to women with breast cancer, with early diagnosis potentially contributing to more effective management and prevention of progression of these conditions.

Blood cultures for evaluation of early postoperative fever after femoral neck fracture surgery

PURPOSE. To evaluate the utility of blood cultures in the assessment of early postoperative fever in hip fracture patients with no other indicators of sepsis. METHODS. 101 blood cultures were drawn on postoperative days 0 to 5 to investigate 84 febrile episodes in 31 women and 30 men (mean age, 80 years) whose body temperature measured via the tympanic route was ≥38ºC. Culture results of these 61 patients were divided into culture-positive and culture-negative groups for comparison. RESULTS. Of the 101 blood cultures, only 2 were positive: one was obtained 5 days after dynamic hip screw fixation, and the other 4 days after hemiarthroplasty. Both blood cultures grew coagulase-negative staphylococcal species, which were deemed to be skin contaminants not requiring change of patient management. 44 of these patients were treated with oral or intravenous antibiotics for a period of time. CONCLUSION. The risk of bacteraemia in patients with postoperative fever but no other symptoms of infection is low. Routine procurement of blood cultures in such patients is ineffective and of limited utility.

Studies of the off-field behaviours of sportspeople : are sponsors' objectives at risk?

The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

Validating a screening tool for mental health and substance use risk in an Indigenous prison population

Introduction and Aims: The Indigenous Risk Impact Screen (IRIS) is a validated culturally appropriate and widely used tool in the community for assessing substance use and mental disorder. This research aimed to assess the utility of this tool in an Indigenous prison population. Design and Methods: The study used data collected from a cross-sectional study of mental health among indigenous inmates in Queensland custodial centres (n=395, 84% male). Participants were administered a modified version of the IRIS, and ICD-10 diagnoses of substance use, depressive and anxiety disorders obtained using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The concurrent validity of the modified IRIS was assessed against those of the CIDI. Results: 312 people screened as high risk for a substance use disorder and 179 were high risk for mental problems. 73% of males and 88% of females were diagnosed with a mental disorder. The IRIS was an effective screener for substance use disorders, with high sensitivity (Se) of 94% and low specificity (Sp) of 33%. The screener was less effective in identifying depression (Se 82%, Sp 59%) and anxiety (Se 68%, Sp 60%). Discussion: The IRIS is the first culturally appropriate screening instrument to be validated for the risk of drug and alcohol and mental disorder among Indigenous adults in custody. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the IRIS is a valid tool for screening of alcohol and drug use risk among an incarcerated Indigenous population. The IRIS could offer an opportunity to improve the identification, treatment and health outcomes for incarcerated Indigenous adults.

Anthropometry and body composition of Indonesian adults : an evaluation of body image, eating behaviours, and physical activity

This thesis examines the characteristics of anthropometry and body composition in Indonesian adults and some of the risk factors including body image, eating behaviours, and physical activity. Examination on body image, eating behaviours, and physical activity demonstrates significant correlations with anthropometry and body composition in Indonesian adults. The study also identified body image distortion in some of the participants and provides suggestions for intervention development addressed to the groups of participants which have been identified as having a distorted body image.

Closing the case of APOE in multiple sclerosis : no association with disease risk in over 29,000 subjects

Background Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs429358 (ε4) and rs7412 (ε2), both invoking changes in the amino-acid sequence of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene, have previously been tested for association with multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. However, none of these studies was sufficiently powered to detect modest effect sizes at acceptable type-I error rates. As both SNPs are only imperfectly captured on commonly used microarray genotyping platforms, their evaluation in the context of genome-wide association studies has been hindered until recently. Methods We genotyped 12 740 subjects hitherto not studied for their APOE status, imputed raw genotype data from 8739 subjects from five independent genome wide association studies datasets using the most recent high-resolution reference panels, and extracted genotype data for 8265 subjects from previous candidate gene assessments. Results Despite sufficient power to detect associations at genome-wide significance thresholds across a range of ORs, our analyses did not support a role of rs429358 or rs7412 on MS susceptibility. This included meta-analyses of the combined data across 13 913 MS cases and 15 831 controls (OR=0.95, p=0.259, and OR 1.07, p=0.0569, for rs429358 and rs7412, respectively). Conclusion Given the large sample size of our analyses, it is unlikely that the two APOE missense SNPs studied here exert any relevant effects on MS susceptibility.

Building an augmented map for road risk assessment

Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.

Evaluation of inflow cannulation site for implantation of right-sided rotary ventricular assist device

Right heart dysfunction is one of the most serious complications following implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD), often leading to the requirement for short or long term right ventricular support (RVAD). The inflow cannulation site induces major haemodynamic changes and so there is a need to optimize the site used depending on the patient's condition. Therefore, this study evaluated and compared the haemodynamic influence of right atrial (RAC) and right ventricular (RVC) inflow cannulation sites. An in-vitro, variable heart failure, mock circulation loop was used to compare RAC and RVC in mild and severe biventricular heart failure (BHF) conditions. In the severe BHF condition, higher ventricular ejection fraction (RAC: 13.6%, RVC: 32.7%) and thus improved heart chamber and RVAD washout was observed with RVC, which suggested this strategy might be preferable for long term support (ie. bridge to transplant or destination therapy) to reduce the risk of thrombus formation. In the mild BHF condition, higher pulmonary valve flow (RAC: 3.33 L/min, RVC: 1.97 L/min) and lower right ventricular stroke work (RAC: 0.10 W, RVC: 0.13 W) and volumes were recorded with RAC. These results indicate an improved potential for myocardial recovery, thus RAC should be chosen in this condition. This in-vitro study suggests that RVAD inflow cannulation site should be chosen on a patient-specific basis with a view to the support strategy to promote myocardial recovery or reduce the risk of long-term complications.

An evaluation of tumor oxygenation and gene expression in patients with early stage non-small cell lung cancers

Background: To directly assess tumor oxygenation in resectable non - small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) and to correlate tumor pO2 and the selected gene and protein expression to treatment outcomes. Methods: Twenty patients with resectable NSCLC were enrolled. Intraoperative measurements of normal lung and tumor pO2 were done with the Eppendorf polarographic electrode. All patients had plasma osteopontin measurements by ELISA. Carbonic anhydrase-IX (CA IX) staining of tumor sections was done in the majority of patients (n = 16), as was gene expression profiling (n = 12) using cDNA microarrays. Tumor pO2 was correlated with CA IX staining, osteopontin levels, and treatment outcomes. Results: The median tumor pO2 ranged from 0.7 to 46 mm Hg (median, 16.6) and was lower than normal lung pO2 in all but one patient. Because both variables were affected by the completeness of lung deflation during measurement, we used the ratio of tumor/normal lung (T/L) pO2 as a reflection of tumor oxygenation. The median T/L pO 2 was 0.13. T/L pO2 correlated significantly with plasma osteopontin levels (r = 0.53, P = 0.02) and CA IX expression (P = 0.006). Gene expression profiling showed that high CD44 expression was a predictor for relapse, which was confirmed by tissue staining of CD44 variant 6 protein. Other variables associated with the risk of relapse were T stage (P = 0.02), T/L pO2 (P = 0.04), and osteopontin levels (P = 0.001). Conclusions: Tumor hypoxia exists in resectable NSCLC and is associated with elevated expression of osteopontin and CA IX. Tumor hypoxia and elevated osteopontin levels and CD44 expression correlated with poor prognosis. A larger study is needed to confirm the prognostic significance of these factors. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

Evaluation of brief dietary questions to estimate vegetable and fruit consumption – using serum carotenoids and red-cell folate

Objective: To evaluate responses to self-administered brief questions regarding consumption of vegetables and fruit by comparison with blood levels of serum carotenoids and red-cell folate. Design: A cross-sectional study in which participants reported their usual intake of fruit and vegetables in servings per day, and serum levels of five carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin and lycopene) and red-cell folate were measured. Serum carotenoid levels were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography, and red-cell folate by an automated immunoassay system. Settings and subjects: Between October and December 2000, a sample of 1598 adults aged 25 years and over, from six randomly selected urban centres in Queensland, Australia, were examined as part of a national study conducted to determine the prevalence of diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors. Results: Statistically significant (P<0.01) associations with vegetable and fruit intake (categorised into groups: ≤1 serving, 2–3 servings and ≥4 servings per day) were observed for α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin and red-cell folate. The mean level of these carotenoids and of red-cell folate increased with increasing frequency of reported servings of vegetables and fruit, both before and after adjusting for potential confounding factors. A significant association with lycopene was observed only for vegetable intake before adjusting for confounders. Conclusions: These data indicate that brief questions may be a simple and valuable tool for monitoring vegetable and fruit intake in this population.

A comparative analysis of risk stratification tools for emergency department patients with chest pain

Background: Appropriate disposition of emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain is dependent on clinical evaluation of risk. A number of chest pain risk stratification tools have been proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using risk assessment tools from the National Heart Foundation of Australia (HFA), the Goldman risk score and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction risk score (TIMI RS). Methods: This prospective observational study evaluated ED patients aged ≥30 years with non-traumatic chest pain for which no definitive non-ischemic cause was found. Data collected included demographic and clinical information, investigation findings and occurrence of MACE by 30 days. The outcome of interest was the comparative predictive performance of the risk tools for MACE at 30 days, as analyzed by receiver operator curves (ROC). Results: Two hundred eighty-one patients were studied; the rate of MACE was 14.1%. Area under the curve (AUC) of the HFA, TIMI RS and Goldman tools for the endpoint of MACE was 0.54, 0.71 and 0.67, respectively, with the difference between the tools in predictive ability for MACE being highly significant [chi2 (3) = 67.21, N = 276, p < 0.0001]. Conclusion: The TIMI RS and Goldman tools performed better than the HFA in this undifferentiated ED chest pain population, but selection of cutoffs balancing sensitivity and specificity was problematic. There is an urgent need for validated risk stratification tools specific for the ED chest pain population.

Retrospective evaluation of dosimetric quality for prostate carcinomas treated with 3D conformal, intensity-modulated and volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy

Introduction This study examines and compares the dosimetric quality of radiotherapy treatment plans for prostate carcinoma across a cohort of 163 patients treated across 5 centres: 83 treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT), 33 treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and 47 treated with volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Methods Treatment plan quality was evaluated in terms of target dose homogeneity and organ-at-risk sparing, through the use of a set of dose metrics. These included the mean, maximum and minimum doses; the homogeneity and conformity indices for the target volumes; and a selection of dose coverage values that were relevant to each organ-at-risk. Statistical significance was evaluated using two-tailed Welch’s T-tests. The Monte Carlo DICOM ToolKit software was adapted to permit the evaluation of dose metrics from DICOM data exported from a commercial radiotherapy treatment planning system. Results The 3DCRT treatment plans offered greater planning target volume dose homogeneity than the other two treatment modalities. The IMRT and VMAT plans offered greater dose reduction in the organs-at-risk: with increased compliance with recommended organ-at-risk dose constraints, compared to conventional 3DCRT treatments. When compared to each other, IMRT and VMAT did not provide significantly different treatment plan quality for like-sized tumour volumes. Conclusions This study indicates that IMRT and VMAT have provided similar dosimetric quality, which is superior to the dosimetric quality achieved with 3DCRT.

The effectiveness of an intervention in reducing risk of dioxin exposure in Da Nang : changes in community knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices after 2.5 years

Introduction Environmental and biological samples taken around Da Nang Air Base have shown elevated levels of dioxin over many years [1-3]. A pre-intervention knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey (2009), a risk reduction program (2010) and a post intervention KAP survey (2011) were undertaken in four wards surrounding Danang Airbase. A follow-up evaluation was undertaken in 2013. Methods A KAP survey was implemented among 400 randomly selected food handlers. Eleven indepth interviews and four focus group discussions were also undertaken. Results The knowledge of respondents remained positive and/or improved at 2.5 years follow-up. There were no significant differences in attitudes toward preventing dioxin exposure across surveys; most respondents were positive in all three surveys. An increase in households (69.5%) undertaking measures to prevent exposure was observed, which was higher than in the pre-intervention survey (39.6%) and post- intervention survey (60.4%) (χ2 = 95.6; p < 0.001). The proportion of respondents practicing appropriate preventive measures was also significantly improved. Conclusions Despite most of the intervention program’s activities ceasing in 2010, the risk reduction program has resulted in positive outcomes over the longer-term, with many knowledge and attitude measures remaining stable or imporving. Some KAP indicators decreased, but these KAP indicators were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels.