Knowledge gain or system benefit in environmental decision making?

The quality of environmental decisions are gauged according to the management objectives of a conservation project. Management objectives are generally about maximising some quantifiable measure of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. They can also be defined in terms of learning about the system in question, in such a case actions would be chosen that maximise knowledge gain, for instance in experimental management sites. Learning about a system can also take place when managing practically. The adaptive management framework (Walters 1986) formally acknowledges this fact by evaluating learning in terms of how it will improve management of the system and therefore future system benefit. This is taken into account when ranking actions using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). However, the benefits of any management action lie on a spectrum from pure system benefit, when there is nothing to be learned about the system, to pure knowledge gain. The current adaptive management framework does not permit management objectives to evaluate actions over the full range of this spectrum. By evaluating knowledge gain in units distinct to future system benefit this whole spectrum of management objectives can be unlocked. This paper outlines six decision making policies that differ across the spectrum of pure system benefit through to pure learning. The extensions to adaptive management presented allow specification of the relative importance of learning compared to system benefit in management objectives. Such an extension means practitioners can be more specific in the construction of conservation project objectives and be able to create policies for experimental management sites in the same framework as practical management sites.

Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms

The quality of environmental decisions should be gauged according to managers' objectives. Management objectives generally seek to maximize quantifiable measures of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. Reaching these goals often requires a certain degree of learning about the system. Learning can occur by using management action in combination with a monitoring system. Furthermore, actions can be chosen strategically to obtain specific kinds of information. Formal decision making tools can choose actions to favor such learning in two ways: implicitly via the optimization algorithm that is used when there is a management objective (for instance, when using adaptive management), or explicitly by quantifying knowledge and using it as the fundamental project objective, an approach new to conservation.This paper outlines three conservation project objectives - a pure management objective, a pure learning objective, and an objective that is a weighted mixture of these two. We use eight optimization algorithms to choose actions that meet project objectives and illustrate them in a simulated conservation project. The algorithms provide a taxonomy of decision making tools in conservation management when there is uncertainty surrounding competing models of system function. The algorithms build upon each other such that their differences are highlighted and practitioners may see where their decision making tools can be improved. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Proceedings of the 3rd International Subtropical Cities Conference 2011 Subtropical Cities: Subtropical Urbanism -Beyond Climate Change

Climate has been, throughout modern history, a primary attribute for attracting residents to the “Sunshine States” of Florida (USA) and Queensland (Australia). The first major group of settlers capitalized on the winter growing season to support a year-­‐round agricultural economy. As these economies developed, the climate attracted tourism and retirement industries. Yet as Florida and Queensland have blossomed under beneficial climates, the stresses acting on the natural environment are exacting a toll. Southeast Florida and eastern Queensland are among the most vulnerable coastal metropolitan areas in the world. In these places the certainty of sea level rise is measurable with impacts, empirically observable, that will continue to increase regardless of any climate change mitigation.1 The cities of the subtropics share a series of paradoxes relating to climate, resources, environment, and culture. As the subtropical climate entices new residents and visitors there are increasing costs associated with urban infrastructure and the ravages of violent weather. The carefree lifestyle of subtropical cities is increasingly dependent on scarce water and energy resources and the flow of tangible goods that support a trade economy. The natural environment is no longer exploitable as the survival of the human environment is contingent upon the ability of natural ecosystems to absorb the impact of human actions. The quality of subtropical living is challenged by the mounting pressures of population growth and rapid urbanization yet urban form and contemporary building design fail to take advantage of the subtropical zone’s natural attributes of abundant sunshine, cooling breezes and warm temperatures. Yet, by building a global network of local knowledge, subtropical cities like Brisbane, the City of Gold Coast and Fort Lauderdale, are confidently leading the way with innovative and inventive solutions for building resiliency and adaptation to climate change. The Centre for Subtropical Design at Queensland University of Technology organized the first international Subtropical Cities conference in Brisbane, Australia, where the “fault-­‐lines” of subtropical cities at breaking points were revealed. The second conference, held in 2008, shed a more optimistic light with the theme "From fault-­‐lines to sight-­‐lines -­‐ subtropical urbanism in 20-­‐20" highlighting the leadership exemplified in the vitality of small and large works from around the subtropical world. Yet beyond these isolated local actions the need for more cooperation and collaboration was identified as the key to moving beyond the problems of the present and foreseeable future. The spirit of leadership and collaboration has taken on new force, as two institutions from opposite sides of the globe joined together to host the 3rd international conference Subtropical Cities 2011 -­‐ Subtropical Urbanism: Beyond Climate Change. The collaboration between Florida Atlantic University and the Queensland University of Technology to host this conference, for the first time in the United States, forges a new direction in international cooperative research to address urban design solutions that support sustainable behaviours, resiliency and adaptation to sea level rise, green house gas (GHG) reduction, and climate change research in the areas of architecture and urban design, planning, and public policy. With southeast Queensland and southern Florida as contributors to this global effort among subtropical urban regions that share similar challenges, opportunities, and vulnerabilities our mutual aim is to advance the development and application of local knowledge to the global problems we share. The conference attracted over 150 participants from four continents. Presentations by authors were organized into three sub-­‐themes: Cultural/Place Identity, Environment and Ecology, and Social Economics. Each of the 22 papers presented underwent a double-­‐blind peer review by a panel of international experts among the disciplines and research areas represented. The Centre for Subtropical Design at the Queensland University of Technology is leading Australia in innovative environmental design with a multi-­‐disciplinary focus on creating places that are ‘at home’ in the warm humid subtropics. The Broward Community Design Collaborative at Florida Atlantic University's College for Design and Social Inquiry has built an interdisciplinary collaboration that is unique in the United States among the units of Architecture, Urban and Regional Planning, Social Work, Public Administration, together with the College of Engineering and Computer Science, the College of Science, and the Center for Environmental Studies, to engage in funded action research through design inquiry to solve the problems of development for urban resiliency and environmental sustainment. As we move beyond debates about climate change -­‐ now acting upon us -­‐ the subtropical urban regions of the world will continue to convene to demonstrate the power of local knowledge against global forces, thereby inspiring us as we work toward everyday engagement and action that can make our cities more livable, equitable, and green.

Synthesis and applications of carbon nanomaterials for energy generation and storage

The world is facing an energy crisis due to exponential population growth and limited availability of fossil fuels. Carbon, one of the most abundant materials found on earth, and its allotrope forms have been proposed in this project for novel energy generation and storage devices. This studied investigated the synthesis and properties of these carbon nanomaterials for applications in organic solar cells and supercapacitors.

Understanding pressures on the future of roads: A sustainable built environment National Research Centre Discussion Paper

According to the Australian Government, when combined with expected population growth and internal migration, expected changes in temperature and rainfall are expected to increase road maintenance costs by over 30 percent by 2100. This presents a significant future economic risk, in response, this paper will discuss the potential for roads to improve their resilience to the impacts of climate change and other key pressures. The paper will also highlight how such measures can inform state and national main road infrastructure planning and reduce future associated risks and costs.

The future of roads: How road agencies are facing a conflicted future

Although road construction and use provides significant economic and social benefits, its environmental impact is of growing concern. Roads are one of the greatest greenhouse gas contributors, both directly through fossil energy consumed in mining, transporting, earthworks and paving work, and through the emissions from road use by vehicles. Further,according to the Australian Government, when combined with expected population growth and internal migration,expected changes in temperature and rainfall are expected to increase road maintenance costs. This discussion paper will outline opportunities within the Australian context for reducing environmental and carbon pressure from road building, and provide a framework for considering the potential pressures that will affect the resilience of roads to the impacts of climate change and oil vulnerability.

Innovation in energy efficiency education for engineers

Energy efficiency as a concept has gained significant attention over the last few decades, as governments and industries around the world have grappled with issues such as rapid population growth and expanding needs for energy, the cost of supplying infrastructure for growing spikes in peak demand, the finite nature of fossil based energy reserves, and managing transition timeframes for expanding renewable energy supplies. Over the last decade in particular, there has been significant growth in understanding the complexity and interconnectedness of these issues, and the centrality of energy efficiency to the engineering profession. Furthermore, there has been a realisation amongst various government departments and education providers that associated knowledge and skill sets to achieve energy efficiency goals are not being sufficiently developed in vocational or higher education. Within this context, this poster discusses the emergence of a national energy efficiency education agenda in Australia, to support embedding such knowledge throughout the engineering curriculum, and throughout career pathways. In particular, the posterprovides insights into the national priorities for capacity building in Australia, and how this is influencing the engineering education community, from undergraduate education through to postgraduate studies and professional development. The poster is intended to assist in raising awareness about the central role of energy efficiency within engineering, significant initiatives by major government, professional, and training organisations, and the increasing availability of high quality energy efficiency engineering education resources. The authors acknowledge the support for and contributions to this poster by the federal Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, through members of the national Energy Efficiency Advisory Group for engineering education.

The future of roads: Reducing environmental pressures and the management of carbon

Although road construction and use provides significant economic and social benefits, its environmental impact is of growing concern. Roads are one of the greatest greenhouse gas contributors, both directly through fossil energy consumed in mining, transporting, earthworks and paving work, plus the emissions from road use by vehicles. Further, according to the Australian Government, when combined with forecast population growth, internal migration and changes in temperature and rainfall, these are expected to increase road maintenance costs. This discussion paper outlines opportunities within the Australian context for reducing environmental and carbon pressure from road building, and provides a framework for considering the potential future pressures that will affect the resilience of roads to the impacts of climate change and oil vulnerability. Seven strategic areas are outlined for further investigation, including a guide to carbon management for road agencies covering planning, funding, procurement, delivery and maintenance of roads.

The influence of critical infrastructure interdependencies on post-disaster reconstruction: Elements of infrastructure interdependency that impede the post-disaster recovery effort

The importance of developing effective disaster management strategies has significantly grown as the world continues to be confronted with unprecedented disastrous events. Factors such as climate instability, recent urbanization along with rapid population growth in many cities around the world have unwittingly exacerbated the risks of potential disasters, leaving a large number of people and infrastructure exposed to new forms of threats from natural disasters such as flooding, cyclones, and earthquakes. With disasters on the rise, effective recovery planning of the built environment is becoming imperative as it is not only closely related to the well-being and essential functioning of society, but it also requires significant financial commitment. In the built environment context, post-disaster reconstruction focuses essentially on the repair and reconstruction of physical infrastructures. The reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts are generally performed in the form of collaborative partnerships that involve multiple organisations, enabling the restoration of interdependencies that exist between infrastructure systems such as energy, water (including wastewater), transport, and telecommunication systems. These interdependencies are major determinants of vulnerabilities and risks encountered by critical infrastructures and therefore have significant implications for post-disaster recovery. When disrupted by natural disasters, such interdependencies have the potential to promote the propagation of failures between critical infrastructures at various levels, and thus can have dire consequences on reconstruction activities. This paper outlines the results of a pilot study on how elements of infrastructure interdependencies have the potential to impede the post-disaster recovery effort. Using a set of unstructured interview questionnaires, plausible arguments provided by seven respondents revealed that during post-disaster recovery, critical infrastructures are mutually dependent on each other’s uninterrupted availability, both physically and through a host of information and communication technologies. Major disruption to their physical and cyber interdependencies could lead to cascading failures, which could delay the recovery effort. Thus, the existing interrelationship between critical infrastructures requires that the entire interconnected network be considered when managing reconstruction activities during the post-disaster recovery period.

Transdisciplinary synthesis for ecosystem science, policy and management: The Australian experience

Mitigating the environmental effects of global population growth, climatic change and increasing socio-ecological complexity is a daunting challenge. To tackle this requires synthesis: the integration of disparate information to generate novel insights from heterogeneous, complex situations where there are diverse perspectives. Since 1995, a structured approach to inter-, multi- and trans-disciplinary1 collaboration around big science questions has been supported through synthesis centres around the world. These centres are finding an expanding role due to ever-accumulating data and the need for more and better opportunities to develop transdisciplinary and holistic approaches to solve real-world problems. The Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS ) has been the pioneering ecosystem science synthesis centre in the Southern Hemisphere. Such centres provide analysis and synthesis opportunities for time-pressed scientists, policy-makers and managers. They provide the scientific and organisational environs for virtual and face-to-face engagement, impetus for integration, data and methodological support, and innovative ways to deliver synthesis products. We detail the contribution, role and value of synthesis using ACEAS to exemplify the capacity for synthesis centres to facilitate trans-organisational, transdisciplinary synthesis. We compare ACEAS to other international synthesis centres, and describe how it facilitated project teams and its objective of linking natural resource science to policy to management. Scientists and managers were brought together to actively collaborate in multi-institutional, cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary research on contemporary ecological problems. The teams analysed, integrated and synthesised existing data to co-develop solution-oriented publications and management recommendations that might otherwise not have been produced. We identify key outcomes of some ACEAS working groups which used synthesis to tackle important ecosystem challenges. We also examine the barriers and enablers to synthesis, so that risks can be minimised and successful outcomes maximised. We argue that synthesis centres have a crucial role in developing, communicating and using synthetic transdisciplinary research.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Improving SEA procedures within Italian regions: Towards a more effective evaluation of urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development, a major issue at global scale, will become more relevant according to population growth predictions in developed and developing countries. Societal and international recognition of sustainability concerns led to the development of specific tools and procedures, known as sustainability assessments/appraisals (SA). Their effectiveness however, considering that global quality life indicators have worsened since their introduction, has promoted a re-thinking of SA instruments. More precisely, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), – a tool introduced in the European context to evaluate policies, plans, and programmes (PPPs), – is being reconsidered because of several features that seem to limit its effectiveness. Over time, SEA has evolved in response to external and internal factors dealing with technical, procedural, planning and governance systems thus involving a shift of paradigm from EIA-based SEAs (first generation protocols) towards more integrated approaches (second generation ones). Changes affecting SEA are formalised through legislation in each Member State, to guide institutions at regional and local level. Defining SEA effectiveness is quite difficult. Its’ capacity-building process appears quite far from its conclusion, even if any definitive version can be conceptualized. In this paper, we consider some European nations with different planning systems and SA traditions. After the identification of some analytical criteria, a multi-dimensional cluster analysis is developed on some case studies, to outline current weaknesses.

Improving SEA prodedures within Italian regions: Towards a more effective evaluation of urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development, a major issue at global scale, will become more relevant according to population growth predictions in developed and developing countries. Societal and international recognition of sustainability concerns led to the development of specific tools and procedures, known as sustainability assessments/appraisals (SA). Their effectiveness however, considering that global quality life indicators have worsened since their introduction, has promoted a re-thinking of SA instruments. More precisely, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), – a tool introduced in the European context to evaluate policies, plans, and programmes (PPPs), – is being reconsidered because of several features that seem to limit its effectiveness. Over time, SEA has evolved in response to external and internal factors dealing with technical, procedural, planning and governance systems thus involving a shift of paradigm from EIA-based SEAs (first generation protocols) towards more integrated approaches (second generation ones). Changes affecting SEA are formalised through legislation in each Member State, to guide institutions at regional and local level. Defining SEA effectiveness is quite difficult. Its’ capacity-building process appears quite far from its conclusion, even if any definitive version can be conceptualized. In this paper, we consider some European nations with different planning systems and SA traditions. After the identification of some analytical criteria, a multi-dimensional cluster analysis is developed on some case studies, to outline current weaknesses.

Organosolv pretreatment of plant biomass for enhanced enzymatic saccharification

The combination of dwindling petroleum reserves and population growth make the development of renewable energy and chemical resources more pressing than ever before. Plant biomass is the most abundant renewable source for energy and chemicals. Enzymes can selectively convert the polysaccharides in plant biomass into simple sugars which can then be upgraded to liquid fuels and platform chemicals using biological and/or chemical processes. Pretreatment is essential for efficient enzymatic saccharification of plant biomass and this article provides an overview of how organic solvent (organosolv) pretreatments affect the structure and chemistry of plant biomass, and how these changes enhance enzymatic saccharification. A comparison between organosolv pretreatments utilizing broadly different classes of solvents (i.e., low boiling point, high boiling point, and biphasic) is presented, with a focus on solvent recovery and formation of by-products. The reaction mechanisms that give rise to these by-products are investigated and strategies to minimize by-product formation are suggested. Finally, process simulations of organosolv pretreatments are compared and contrasted, and discussed in the context of an industrial-scale plant biomass to fermentable sugar process.