Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

A Monte-Carlo tree search in argumentation

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a heuristic to search in large trees. We apply it to argumentative puzzles where MCTS pursues the best argumentation with respect to a set of arguments to be argued. To make our ideas as widely applicable as possible, we integrate MCTS to an abstract setting for argumentation where the content of arguments is left unspecified. Experimental results show the pertinence of this integration for learning argumentations by comparing it with a basic reinforcement learning.

Monte Carlo analysis of a puzzle game

When a puzzle game is created, its design parameters must be chosen to allow solvable and interesting challenges to be created for the player. We investigate the use of random sampling as a computationally inexpensive means of automated game analysis, to evaluate the BoxOff family of puzzle games. This analysis reveals useful insights into the game, such as the surprising fact that almost 100% of randomly generated challenges have a solution, but less than 10% will be solved using strictly random play, validating the inventor’s design choices. We show the 1D game to be trivial and the 3D game to be viable.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

A pre-treatment verification tool for IMRT based on EPID measurements and a GEANT4 back projection application

The aim of this work is to develop software that is capable of back projecting primary fluence images obtained from EPID measurements through phantom and patient geometries in order to calculate 3D dose distributions. In the first instance, we aim to develop a tool for pretreatment verification in IMRT. In our approach, a Geant4 application is used to back project primary fluence values from each EPID pixel towards the source. Each beam is considered to be polyenergetic, with a spectrum obtained from Monte Carlo calculations for the LINAC in question. At each step of the ray tracing process, the energy differential fluence is corrected for attenuation and beam divergence. Subsequently, the TERMA is calculated and accumulated to an energy differential 3D TERMA distribution. This distribution is then convolved with monoenergetic point spread kernels, thus generating energy differential 3D dose distributions. The resulting dose distributions are accumulated to yield the total dose distribution, which can then be used for pre-treatment verification of IMRT plans. Preliminary results were obtained for a test EPID image comprised of 100 9 100 pixels of unity fluence. Back projection of this field into a 30 cm9 30 cm 9 30 cm water phantom was performed, with TERMA distributions obtained in approximately 10 min (running on a single core of a 3 GHz processor). Point spread kernels for monoenergetic photons in water were calculated using a separate Geant4 application. Following convolution and summation, the resulting 3D dose distribution produced familiar build-up and penumbral features. In order to validate the dose model we will use EPID images recorded without any attenuating material in the beam for a number of MLC defined square fields. The dose distributions in water will be calculated and compared to TPS predictions.

Dosimetric effects of a high-density spinal implant

In this study, a treatment plan for a spinal lesion, with all beams transmitted though a titanium vertebral reconstruction implant, was used to investigate the potential effect of a high-density implant on a three-dimensional dose distribution for a radiotherapy treatment. The BEAMnrc/DOSXYZnrc and MCDTK Monte Carlo codes were used to simulate the treatment using both a simplified, recltilinear model and a detailed model incorporating the full complexity of the patient anatomy and treatment plan. The resulting Monte Carlo dose distributions showed that the commercial treatment planning system failed to accurately predict both the depletion of dose downstream of the implant and the increase in scattered dose adjacent to the implant. Overall, the dosimetric effect of the implant was underestimated by the commercial treatment planning system and overestimated by the simplified Monte Carlo model. The value of performing detailed Monte Carlo calculations, using the full patient and treatment geometry, was demonstrated.

Surface dosimetry for very small X-ray beams

Introduction The dose to skin surface is an important factor for many radiotherapy treatment techniques. It is known that TPS predicted surface doses can be significantly different from actual ICRP skin doses as defined at 70 lm. A number of methods have been implemented for the accurate determination of surface dose including use of specific dosimeters such as TLDs and radiochromic film as well as Monte Carlo calculations. Stereotactic radiosurgery involves delivering very high doses per treatment fraction using small X-ray fields. To date, there has been limited data on surface doses for these very small field sizes. The purpose of this work is to evaluate surface doses by both measurements and Monte Carlo calculations for very small field sizes. Methods All measurements were performed on a Novalis Tx linear accelerator which has a 6 MV SRS X-ray beam mode which uses a specially thin flattening filter. Beam collimation was achieved by circular cones with apertures that gave field sizes ranging from 4 to 30 mm at the isocentre. The relative surface doses were measured using Gafchromic EBT3 film which has the active layer at a depth similar to the ICRP skin dose depth. Monte Carlo calculations were performed using the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc Monte Carlo codes (V4 r225). The specifications of the linear accelerator, including the collimator, were provided by the manufacturer. Optimisation of the incident X-ray beam was achieved by an iterative adjustment of the energy, spatial distribution and radial spread of the incident electron beam striking the target. The energy cutoff parameters were PCUT = 0.01 MeV and ECUT = 0.700 - MeV. Directional bremsstrahlung splitting was switched on for all BEAMnrc calculations. Relative surface doses were determined in a layer defined in a water phantom of the same thickness and depth as compared to the active later in the film. Results Measured surface doses using the EBT3 film varied between 13 and 16 % for the different cones with an uncertainty of 3 %. Monte Carlo calculated surface doses were in agreement to better than 2 % to the measured doses for all the treatment cones. Discussion and conclusions This work has shown the consistency of surface dose measurements using EBT3 film with Monte Carlo predicted values within the uncertainty of the measurements. As such, EBT3 film is recommended for in vivo surface dose measurements.

Technical note : modelling a complex micro-multileaf collimator using the standard BEAMnrc distribution

Purpose: The component modules in the standard BEAMnrc distribution may appear to be insufficient to model micro-multileaf collimators that have tri-faceted leaf ends and complex leaf profiles. This note indicates, however, that accurate Monte Carlo simulations of radiotherapy beams defined by a complex collimation device can be completed using BEAMnrc's standard VARMLC component module.---------- Methods: That this simple collimator model can produce spatially and dosimetrically accurate micro-collimated fields is illustrated using comparisons with ion chamber and film measurements of the dose deposited by square and irregular fields incident on planar, homogeneous water phantoms.---------- Results: Monte Carlo dose calculations for on- and off-axis fields are shown to produce good agreement with experimental values, even upon close examination of the penumbrae.--------- Conclusions: The use of a VARMLC model of the micro-multileaf collimator, along with a commissioned model of the associated linear accelerator, is therefore recommended as an alternative to the development or use of in-house or third-party component modules for simulating stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments. Simulation parameters for the VARMLC model are provided which should allow other researchers to adapt and use this model to study clinical stereotactic radiotherapy treatments.

An investigation of dose calculation accuracy in intensity-modulated radiotherapy of sites in the head & neck

Knowledge of the accuracy of dose calculations in intensity-modulated radiotherapy of the head and neck is essential for clinical confidence in these highly conformal treatments. High dose gradients are frequently placed very close to critical structures, such as the spinal cord, and good coverage of complex shaped nodal target volumes is important for long term-local control. A phantom study is presented comparing the performance of standard clinical pencil-beam and collapsed-cone dose algorithms to Monte Carlo calculation and three-dimensional gel dosimetry measurement. All calculations and measurements are normalized to the median dose in the primary planning target volume, making this a purely relative study. The phantom simulates tissue, air and bone for a typical neck section and is treated using an inverse-planned 5-field IMRT treatment, similar in character to clinically used class solutions. Results indicate that the pencil-beam algorithm fails to correctly model the relative dose distribution surrounding the air cavity, leading to an overestimate of the target coverage. The collapsed-cone and Monte Carlo results are very similar, indicating that the clinical collapsed-cone algorithm is perfectly sufficient for routine clinical use. The gel measurement shows generally good agreement with the collapsed-cone and Monte Carlo calculated dose, particularly in the spinal cord dose and nodal target coverage, thus giving greater confidence in the use of this class solution.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical VC dimension, empirical VC entropy, and margin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Spin-polarization and ferromagnetism of graphitic carbon nitride materials

Polymeric graphitic carbon nitride materials have attracted increasing attention in recent years owning to their potential applications in energy conversion, environment protection, and so on. Here, from first-principles calculations, we report the electronic structure modification of graphitic carbon nitride (g-C3N4) in response to carbon doping. We showed that each dopant atom can induce a local magnetic moment of 1.0 μB in non-magnetic g-C3N4. At the doping concentration of 1/14, the local magnetic moments of the most stable doping configuration which has the dopant atom at the center of heptazine unit prefer to align in a parallel way leading to long-range ferromagnetic (FM) ordering. When the joint N atom is replaced by C atom, the system favors an antiferromagnetic (AFM) ordering at unstrained state, but can be tuned to ferromagnetism (FM) by applying biaxial tensile strain. More interestingly, the FM state of the strained system is half-metallic with abundant states at the Fermi level in one spin channel and a band gap of 1.82 eV in another spin channel. The Curie temperature (Tc) was also evaluated using a mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations within the Ising model. Such tunable electron spin-polarization and ferromagnetism are quite promising for the applications of graphitic carbon nitride in spintronics.

The importance of accurate beam data measurement for SRT/SRS treatment planning

Introduction This study investigated the sensitivity of calculated stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery doses to the accuracy of the beam data used by the treatment planning system. Methods Two sets of field output factors were acquired using fields smaller than approximately 1 cm2, for inclusion in beam data used by the iPlan treatment planning system (Brainlab, Feldkirchen, Germany). One set of output factors were measured using an Exradin A16 ion chamber (Standard Imaging, Middleton, USA). Although this chamber has a relatively small collecting volume (0.007 cm3), measurements made in small fields using this chamber are subject to the effects of volume averaging, electronic disequilibrium and chamber perturbations. The second, more accurate, set of measurements were obtained by applying perturbation correction factors, calculated using Monte Carlo simulations according to a method recommended by Cranmer-Sargison et al. [1] to measurements made using a 60017 unshielded electron diode (PTW, Freiburg, Germany). A series of 12 sample patient treatments were used to investigate the effects of beam data accuracy on resulting planned dose. These treatments, which involved 135 fields, were planned for delivery via static conformal arcs and 3DCRT techniques, to targets ranging from prostates (up to 8 cm across) to meningiomas (usually more than 2 cm across) to arterioveinous malformations, acoustic neuromas and brain metastases (often less than 2 cm across). Isocentre doses were calculated for all of these fields using iPlan, and the results of using the two different sets of beam data were evaluated. Results While the isocentre doses for many fields are identical (difference = 0.0 %), there is a general trend for the doses calculated using the data obtained from corrected diode measurements to exceed the doses calculated using the less-accurate Exradin ion chamber measurements (difference\0.0 %). There are several alarming outliers (circled in the Fig. 1) where doses differ by more than 3 %, in beams from sample treatments planned for volumes up to 2 cm across. Discussion and conclusions These results demonstrate that treatment planning dose calculations for SRT/SRS treatments can be substantially affected when beam data for fields smaller than approximately 1 cm2 are measured inaccurately, even when treatment volumes are up to 2 cm across.

Fast unscented transformation-based transient stability margin estimation incorporating uncertainty of wind generation

Intermittent generation from wind farms leads to fluctuating power system operating conditions pushing the stability margin to its limits. The traditional way of determining the worst case generation dispatch for a system with several semi-scheduled wind generators yields a conservative solution. This paper proposes a fast estimation of the transient stability margin (TSM) incorporating the uncertainty of wind generation. First, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to provide linear estimation of system angle and then unscented transformation (UT) is used to estimate the distribution of the TSM. The proposed method is compared with the traditional Monte Carlo (MC) method and the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified using Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) and IEEE 14 generator Australian dynamic system. This method will aid grid operators to perform fast online calculations to estimate TSM distribution of a power system with high levels of intermittent wind generation.

Anatomical modelling of the pregnant radiotherapy patient

This study aimed to take existing anatomical models of pregnant women, currently used for radiation pro-tection and nuclear medicine dose calculations, and adapt them for use in the calculation of fetal dose from external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). The models investigated were ‘KATJA’, which was provided as an MCNPX geometry file, and ‘RPI-P6’, which was provided in a simple, voxelized bina-ry format. In-house code was developed, to convert both mod-els into an `egsphant’ format, suitable for use with DOSXYZnrc. The geometries and densities of the resulting phantoms were evaluated and found to accurately represent the source data. As an example of the use of the phantoms, the delivery of a cranial EBRT treatment was simulated using the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes and the likely out-of-field doses to the fetus in each model was calculated. The results of these calculations showed good agreement (with-in one standard deviation) between the doses calculated in KATJA and PRI-P6, despite substantial anatomical differ-ences between the two models. For a 36 Gy prescription dose to a 233.2 cm3 target in the right brain, the mean doses calcu-lated in a region of interest covering the entire uterus were 1.0 +/- 0.6 mSv for KATJA and 1.3 +/- 0.9 mSv for RPI-P6. This work is expected to lead to more comprehensive studies of EBRT treatment plan design and its effects on fetal dose in the future.