Complex Modelling in the Primary and Middle School Years : An Interdisciplinary Approach

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual. With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to signifi cant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientifi c thinking required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden students’ mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This chapter first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Consideration is then given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling, as one means of addressing these competencies. Illustrative case studies involving complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities in Years 1 and 7 are presented.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as a biomarker for the pharmacological response of PTK787/ZK 222584, an inhibitor of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, in patients with advanced colorectal cancer and liver metastases: Results from two phase I studies

Purpose: PTK787/ZK 222584 (PTK/ZK), an orally active inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor tyrosine kinases, inhibits VEGF-mediated angiogenesis. The pharmacodynamic effects of PTK/ZK were evaluated by assessing changes in contrast-enhancement parameters of metastatic liver lesions using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated in two ongoing, dose-escalating phase I studies. Patients and Methods: Twenty-six patients had DCE-MRI performed at baseline, day 2, and at the end of each 28-day cycle. Doses of oral PTK/ZK ranged from 50 to 2000 mg once daily. Tumor permeability and vascularity were assessed by calculating the bidirectional transfer constant (Ki). The percentage of baseline Ki (% of baseline Ki) at each time point was compared with pharmacokinetic and clinical end points. Results: A significant negative correlation exists between the % of baseline Ki and increase in PTK/ZK oral dose and plasma levels (P = .01 for oral dose; P = .0001 for area under the plasma concentration curve at day 2). Patients with a best response of stable disease had a significantly greater reduction in Ki at both day 2 and at the end of cycle 1 compared with progressors (mean difference in % of baseline Ki, 47%, P = .004%; and 51%, P = .006; respectively). The difference in % of baseline Ki remained statistically significant after adjusting for baseline WHO performance status. Conclusion: These findings should help to define a biologically active dose of PTK/ZK. These results suggest that DCE-MRI may be a useful biomarker for defining the pharmacological response and dose of angiogenesis inhibitiors, such as PTK/ZK, for further clinical development. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Two cycles of voluminous pyroclastic volcanism and sedimentation related to episodic granite emplacement during the late Archean : Eastern Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia

The thick piles of late-Archean volcaniclastic sedimentary successions that overlie the voluminous greenstone units of the eastern Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, record the important transition from the cessation in mafic-ultramafic volcanism to cratonisation between about 2690 and 2655 Ma. Unfortunately, an inability to clearly subdivide the superficially similar sedimentary successions and correlate them between the various geological terranes and domains of the eastern Yilgarn Craton has led to uncertainty about the timing and nature of the region's palaeogeographic and palaeotectonic evolution. Here, we present the results of some 2025 U–Pb laser-ablation-ICP-MS analyses and 323 Sensitive High-Resolution Ion Microprobe (SHRIMP) analyses of detrital zircons from 14 late-Archean felsic clastic successions of the eastern Yilgarn Craton, which have enabled correlation of clastic successions. The results of our data, together with those compiled from previous studies, show that the post-greenstone sedimentary successions include two major cycles that both commenced with voluminous pyroclastic volcanism and ended with widespread exhumation and erosion associated with granite emplacement. Cycle One commences with an influx of rapidly reworked feldspar-rich pyroclastic debris. These units, here-named the Early Black Flag Group, are dominated by a single population of detrital zircons with an average age of 2690–2680 Ma. Thick (up to 2 km) dolerite bodies, such as the Golden Mile Dolerite, intrude the upper parts of the Early Black Flag Group at about 2680 Ma. Incipient development of large granite domes during Cycle One created extensional basins predominantly near their southeastern and northwestern margins (e.g., St Ives, Wallaby, Kanowna Belle and Agnew), into which the Early Black Flag Group and overlying coarse mafic conglomerate facies of the Late Black Flag Group were deposited. The clast compositions and detrital-zircon ages of the late Black Flag Group detritus match closely the nearby and/or stratigraphically underlying successions, thus suggesting relatively local provenance. Cycle Two involved a similar progression to that observed in Cycle One, but the age and composition of the detritus were notably different. Deposition of rapidly reworked quartz-rich pyroclastic deposits dominated by a single detrital-zircon age population of 2670–2660 Ma heralded the beginning of Cycle Two. These coarse-grained quartz-rich units, are name here the Early Merougil Group. The mean ages of the detrital zircons from the Early Merougil Group match closely the age of the peak in high-Ca (quartz-rich) granite magmatism in the Yilgarn Craton and thus probably represent the surface expression of the same event. Successions of the Late Merougil Group are dominated by coarse felsic conglomerate with abundant volcanic quartz. Although the detrital zircons in these successions have a broad spread of age, the principal sub-populations have ages of about 2665 Ma and thus match closely those of the Early Merougil Group. These successions occur most commonly at the northwestern and southeastern margins of the granite batholiths and thus are interpreted to represent resedimented units dominted by the stratigraphically underlying packages of the Early Merougil Group. The Kurrawang Group is the youngest sedimentary units identified in this study and is dominated by polymictic conglomerate with clasts of banded iron formation (BIF), granite and quartzite near the base and quartz-rich sandstone units containing detrital zircons aged up to 3500 Ma near the top. These units record provenance from deeper and/or more-distal sources. We suggest here that the principal driver for the major episodes of volcanism, sedimentation and deformation associated with basin development was the progressive emplacement of large granite batholiths. This interpretation has important implication for palaeogeographic and palaeotectonic evolution of all late-Archean terranes around the world.

Literacy in the Middle Years : Learning from Collaborative Classroom Research

Literacy in the Middle Years: Learning from Collaborative Classroom Research, showcases teachers' innovative literacy work across the curriculum. Classroom practice, teacher thinking and collaborative research are highlighted in ways of working with new curricula and rapidly changing literacy modes and platforms. Connections with place, critical engagement with digital literacies, using polymedia with EAL/D learners, and subject-specific literacies are detailed in teachers' stories of practice. Teacher wellbeing, for a sustainable workforce, underpins the case studies, aimed at equipping 'change ready' teachers with positive examples of literacy approaches and inquiry in practice.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

Cybercrime attribution : an Eastern European case study

Phishing and related cybercrime is responsible for billions of dollars in losses annually. Gartner reported more than 5 million U.S. consumers lost money to phishing attacks in the 12 months ending in September 2008 (Gartner 2009). This paper asks whether the majority of organised phishing and related cybercrime originates in Eastern Europe rather than elsewhere such as China or the USA. The Russian “Mafiya” in particular has been popularised by the media and entertainment industries to the point where it can be hard to separate fact from fiction but we have endeavoured to look critically at the information available on this area to produce a survey. We take a particular focus on cybercrime from an Australian perspective, as Australia was one of the first places where Phishing attacks against Internet banks were seen. It is suspected these attacks came from Ukrainian spammers. The survey is built from case studies both where individuals from Eastern Europe have been charged with related crimes or unsolved cases where there is some nexus to Eastern Europe. It also uses some earlier work done looking at those early Phishing attacks, archival analysis of Phishing attacks in July 2006 and new work looking at correlation between the Corruption Perception Index, Internet penetration and tertiary education in Russia and the Ukraine. The value of this work is to inform and educate those charged with responding to cybercrime where a large part of the problem originates and try to understand why.

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease : a comparative risk assessment

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Are Australian homes liveable and adaptable for Muslim families? - Six case studies in Brisbane

This paper investigates how Muslims living in Brisbane live within their current Australian homes and the liveability and adaptability of these homes from the perspective of home dwellers with respect to their Islamic faiths, cultural traditions and lifestyle. A qualitative case study approach was used to gather information about Muslims’ use of domestic spaces through their lived experiences, within an Australian context. Six participants were interviewed, including: a) three Muslim families residing in one suburb of Brisbane, and; b) three international Muslim students living in three different Brisbane suburbs. These cases indicate that apart from minor difficulties, case study participants were able to perform their daily activities within their current homes through various adaptations made to ensure their respective domestic domains provided their families with privacy and a sense of security and safety. Insight gained from these cases suggest the need for more research into the homes of Muslims homes within an Australian context and the development of culturally adaptable housing as a means of meeting the diverse needs of modern Australian multicultural society.

Physiological and biomechanical responses to walking underwater on a non-motorised treadmill: Effects of different exercise intensities and depths in middle-aged healthy women

Non-motorised underwater treadmills are commonly used in fitness activities. However, no studies have examined physiological and biomechanical responses of walking on non-motorised treadmills at different intensities and depths. Fifteen middle-aged healthy women underwent two underwater walking tests at two different depths, immersed either up to the xiphoid process (deep water) or the iliac crest (shallow water), at 100, 110, 120, 130 step-per-minute (spm). Oxygen consumption (VO2), heart rate (HR), blood lactate concentration, perceived exertion and step length were determined. Compared to deep water, walking in shallow water exhibited, at all intensities, significantly higher VO2 (+13.5%, on average) and HR (+8.1%, on average) responses. Water depth did not influence lactate concentration, whereas perceived exertion was higher in shallow compared to deep water, solely at 120 (+40%) and 130 (+39.4%) spm. Average step length was reduced as the intensity increased (from 100 to 130 spm), irrespective of water depth. Expressed as a percentage of maximum, average VO2 and HR were: 64–76% of peak VO2 and 71–90% of maximum HR, respectively at both water depths. Accordingly, this form of exercise can be included in the “vigorous” range of exercise intensity, at any of the step frequencies used in this study.

A life cycle assessment approach to quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change for beef production in eastern Australia

In life cycle assessment studies, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from direct land-use change have been estimated to make a significant contribution to the global warming potential of agricultural products. However, these estimates have a high uncertainty due to the complexity of data requirements and difficulty in attribution of land-use change. This paper presents estimates of GHG emissions from direct land-use change from native woodland to grazing land for two beef production regions in eastern Australia, which were the subject of a multi-impact life cycle assessment study for premium beef production. Spatially- and temporally consistent datasets were derived for areas of forest cover and biomass carbon stocks using published remotely sensed tree-cover data and regionally applicable allometric equations consistent with Australia's national GHG inventory report. Standard life cycle assessment methodology was used to estimate GHG emissions and removals from direct land-use change attributed to beef production. For the northern-central New South Wales region of Australia estimates ranged from a net emission of 0.03 t CO2-e ha-1 year-1 to net removal of 0.12 t CO2-e ha-1 year-1 using low and high scenarios, respectively, for sequestration in regrowing forests. For the same period (1990-2010), the study region in southern-central Queensland was estimated to have net emissions from land-use change in the range of 0.45-0.25 t CO2-e ha-1 year-1. The difference between regions reflects continuation of higher rates of deforestation in Queensland until strict regulation in 2006 whereas native vegetation protection laws were introduced earlier in New South Wales. On the basis of liveweight produced at the farm-gate, emissions from direct land-use change for 1990-2010 were comparable in magnitude to those from other on-farm sources, which were dominated by enteric methane. However, calculation of land-use change impacts for the Queensland region for a period starting 2006, gave a range from net emissions of 0.11 t CO2-e ha-1 year-1 to net removals of 0.07 t CO2-e ha-1 year-1. This study demonstrated a method for deriving spatially- and temporally consistent datasets to improve estimates for direct land-use change impacts in life cycle assessment. It identified areas of uncertainty, including rates of sequestration in woody regrowth and impacts of land-use change on soil carbon stocks in grazed woodlands, but also showed the potential for direct land-use change to represent a net sink for GHG.

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Asthma in Population-Based Cohorts Confirm Known and Suggested Loci and Identify an Additional Association near HLA

Rationale: Asthma has substantial morbidity and mortality and a strong genetic component, but identification of genetic risk factors is limited by availability of suitable studies. Objectives: To test if population-based cohorts with self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma and genome-wide association (GWA) data could be used to validate known associations with asthma and identify novel associations. Methods: The APCAT (Analysis in Population-based Cohorts of Asthma Traits) consortium consists of 1,716 individuals with asthma and 16,888 healthy controls from six European-descent population-based cohorts. We examined associations in APCAT of thirteen variants previously reported as genome-wide significant (P<5x10-8) and three variants reported as suggestive (P<5×10-7). We also searched for novel associations in APCAT (Stage 1) and followed-up the most promising variants in 4,035 asthmatics and 11,251 healthy controls (Stage 2). Finally, we conducted the first genome-wide screen for interactions with smoking or hay fever. Main Results: We observed association in the same direction for all thirteen previously reported variants and nominally replicated ten of them. One variant that was previously suggestive, rs11071559 in RORA, now reaches genome-wide significance when combined with our data (P = 2.4×10-9). We also identified two genome-wide significant associations: rs13408661 near IL1RL1/IL18R1 (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10-9), which is correlated with a variant recently shown to be associated with asthma (rs3771180), and rs9268516 in the HLA region (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10-8), which appears to be independent of previously reported associations in this locus. Finally, we found no strong evidence for gene-environment interactions with smoking or hay fever status. Conclusions: Population-based cohorts with simple asthma phenotypes represent a valuable and largely untapped resource for genetic studies of asthma. © 2012 Ramasamy et al.

Finnish HLA studies confirm the increased risk conferred by HLA-B27 homozygosity in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To determine the influence of HLA-B27 homozygosity and HLA-DRB1 alleles in the susceptibility to, and severity of, ankylosing spondylitis in a Finnish population. Methods: 673 individuals from 261 families with ankylosing spondylitis were genotyped for HLA-DRB1 alleles and HLA-B27 heterozygosity/ homozygosity. The frequencies of HLA-B27 homozygotes in probands from these families were compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes in controls under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles was assessed using a logistic regression procedure conditioned on HLA-B27 and case-control analysis. Results: HLA-B27 was detected in 93% of cases of ankylosing spondylitis. An overrepresentation of HLA-B27 homozygotes was noted in ankylosing spondylitis (11%) compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes under HWE (4%) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 6.8), p = 0.002). HLA-B27 homozygosity was marginally associated with reduced BASDAI (HLA-B27 homozygotes, 4.5 (1.6); HLA-B27 heterozygotes, 5.4 (1.8) (mean (SD)), p = 0.05). Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) was present in significantly more HLA-B27 positive cases (50%) than HLA-B27 negative cases (16%) (OR = 5.4 (1.7 to 17), p<0.004). HLA-B27 positive cases had a lower average age of symptom onset (26.7 (8.0) years) compared with HLA-B27 negative cases (35.7 (11.2) years) (p<0.0001). Conclusions: HLA-627 homozygosity is associated with a moderately increased risk of ankylosing spondylitis compared with HLA-β27 heterozygosity. HLA-B27 positive cases had an earlier age of onset of ankylosing spondylitis than HLA-B27 negative cases and were more likely to develop AAU. HLA-DRB1 alleles may influence the age of symptom onset of ankylosing spondylitis.

Comparative studies of how living circumstances influence medication adherence in ≥ 65 year olds

Background Resources to help the older aged (≥65 year olds) manage their medicines should probably target those in greatest need. The older-aged have many different types of living circumstances. There are different locations (urban, rural), different types of housing (in the community or in retirement villages), different living arrangements (living alone or with others), and different socioeconomic status (SES) circumstances. However, there has been limited attention to whether these living circumstances affect adherence to medicines in the ≥65 year olds. Aim of the review The aim was to determine whether comparative studies, including logistic regression studies, show that living circumstances affect adherence to medicines by the ≥65 year olds. Methods A literature search of Medline, CINAHL and the Internet (Google) was undertaken. Results Four comparative studies have not shown differences in adherence to medicines between the ≥65 year olds living in rural and urban locations, but one study shows lower adherence to medicines for osteoporosis in rural areas compared to metropolitan, and another study shows greater adherence to antihypertensive medicines in rural than urban areas. There are no comparative studies of adherence to medicines in the older-aged living in indigenous communities compared to other communities. There is conflicting evidence as to whether living alone, being unmarried, or having a low income/worth is associated with nonadherence. Preliminary studies have suggested that the older-aged living in rental, low SES retirement villages or leasehold, middle SES retirement villages have a lower adherence to medicines than those living in freehold, high SES retirement villages. Conclusions The ≥65 year olds living in rural communities may need extra help with adherence to medicines for osteoporosis. The ≥65 year olds living in rental or leasehold retirement villages may require extra assistance/resources to adhere to their medicines. Further research is needed to clarify whether living under certain living circumstances (e.g. living alone, being unmarried, low income) has an effect on adherence, and to determine whether the ≥65 year olds living in indigenous communities need assistance to be adherent to prescribed medicines.

The return to work experiences of middle-aged Australian workers diagnosed with colorectal cancer: a matched cohort study

Background Few studies have been undertaken to understand the employment impact in patients with colorectal cancer and none in middle-aged individuals with cancer. This study described transitions in, and key factors influencing, work participation during the 12 months following a diagnosis of colorectal cancer. Methods We enrolled 239 adults during 2010 and 2011who were employed at the time of their colorectal cancer diagnosis and were prospectively followed over 12 months. They were compared to an age- and gender-matched general population group of 717 adults from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Data were collected using telephone and postal surveys. Primary outcomes included work participation at 12 months, changes in hours worked and time to work re-entry. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards models were undertaken. Results A significantly higher proportion of participants with colorectal cancer (27%) had stopped working at 12 months than participants from the comparison group (8%) (p < 0.001). Participants with cancer who returned to work took a median of 91 days off work (25–75 percentiles: 14–183 days). For participants with cancer, predictors of not working at 12 months included: being older, lower BMI and lower physical well-being. Factors related to delayed work re-entry included not being university-educated, working for an employer with more than 20 employees in a non-professional or managerial role, longer hospital stay, poorer perceived financial status and having or had chemotherapy. Conclusions In middle-adulthood, those working and diagnosed with colorectal cancer can expect to take around three months off work. Individuals treated with chemotherapy, without a university degree and from large employers could be targeted for specific assistance for a more timely work entry.