Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Structural health monitoring in Australia

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is defined as the use of on-structure sensing system to monitor the performance of the structure and evaluate its health state. Recent bridge failures, such as the collapses of the 1-35W Highway Bridge in USA, the collapse of the Can Tho Bridge in Vietnam and the Xijiang River Bridge in the Mainland China, all of which happened in the year 2007, have alerted the importance of structural health monitoring. This book presents a background of SHM technologies together with its latest development and successful applications. It is a book launched to celebrate the establishment of the Australian Network of Structural Health Monitoring (ANSHM). The network comprising leading SHM experts in Australia promotes and advances SHM research, application, education and development in Australia.

Complaining in cyberspace : the motives and forms of hotel guests’ complaints online

Traditionally, consumers who have been dissatisfied with service have typically complained to the frontline personnel or to a manager in either a direct (face-to-face, over the phone) manner, indirect by writing, or done nothing but told friends and family of the incident. More recently, the Internet has provided various “new” ways to air a grievance, especially when little might have been done at the point of service failure. With the opportunity to now spread word-of-mouth globally, consumers have the potential to impact the standing of a brand or a firm's reputation. The hotel industry is particularly vulnerable, as an increasing number of bookings are undertaken via the Internet and the decision process is likely to be influenced by what other previous guests might post on many booking-linked sites. We conducted a qualitative study of a key travel site to ascertain the forms and motives of complaints made online about hotels and resorts. 200 web-based consumer complaints were analyzed using NVivo 8 software. Findings revealed that consumers report a wide range of service failures on the Internet. They tell a highly descriptive, persuasive, and credible story, often motivated by altruism or, at the other end of the continuum, by revenge. These stories have the power to influence potential guests to book or not book accommodation at the affected properties. Implications for managers of hotels and resorts are discussed.

Treating an unhealthy organisational culture : the implications of the Bundaberg Hospital inquiry for managerial ethical decision making

This paper explores the interplay between individual values, espoused organisational values and the values of the organisational culture in practice in light of a recent Royal Commission in Queensland, Australia, which highlighted systematic failures in patient care. The lack of congruence among values at these levels impacts upon the ethical decision making of health managers. The presence of institutional ethics regimes such as the Public Sector Ethics Act 1994 (Qld) and agency codes of conduct are not sufficient to counteract the negative influence of informal codes of practice that undermine espoused organisational values and community standards. The ethical decision-making capacity of health care managers remains at the front line in the battle against unethical and unprofessional practice. What is known about the topic? Value congruence theory focusses on the conflicts between individual and organisational values. Congruence between individual values, espoused values and values expressed in everyday practice can only be achieved by ensuring that such shared values are an ever-present factor in managerial decision making. What does this paper add? The importance of value congruence in building and sustaining a healthy organisational culture is confirmed by the evidence presented in the Bundaberg Hospital Inquiry. The presence of strong individual values among staff and strong espoused values in line with community expectations and backed up by legislation and ethics regimes were not, in themselves, sufficient to ensure a healthy organisational culture and prevent unethical, and possibly illegal, behaviour. What are the implications for practitioners? Managers must incorporate ethics in decision making to establish and maintain the nexus between individual and organisational values that is a vital component of a healthy organisational culture.

Contextualizing the tensions and weaknesses of information privacy and data breach notification laws

Data breach notification laws have detailed numerous failures relating to the protection of personal information that have blighted both corporate and governmental institutions. There are obvious parallels between data breach notification and information privacy law as they both involve the protection of personal information. However, a closer examination of both laws reveals conceptual differences that give rise to vertical tensions between each law and shared horizontal weaknesses within both laws. Tensions emanate from conflicting approaches to the implementation of information privacy law that results in different regimes and the implementation of different types of protections. Shared weaknesses arise from an overt focus on specified types of personal information which results in ‘one size fits all’ legal remedies. The author contends that a greater contextual approach which promotes the importance of social context is required and highlights the effect that contextualization could have on both laws.

Gas boosted solar water heaters : Queensland case studies of installation practices in new homes

Because of the greenhouse gas emissions implications of the market dominating electric hot water systems, governments in Australia have implemented policies and programs to encourage the uptake of solar water heaters (SWHs) in the residential market as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The cost-benefit analysis that usually accompanies all government policy and program design could be simplistically reduced to the ratio of expected greenhouse gas reductions of SWH to the cost of a SWH. The national Register of Solar Water Heaters specifies how many renewable energy certificates (RECs) are allocated to complying SWHs according to their expected performance, and hence greenhouse gas reductions, in different climates. Neither REC allocations nor rebates are tied to actual performance of systems. This paper examines the performance of instantaneous gas-boosted solar water heaters installed in new residences in a housing estate in south-east Queensland in the period 2007 – 2010. The evidence indicates systemic failures in installation practices, resulting in zero solar performance or dramatic underperformance (estimated average 43% solar contribution). The paper will detail the faults identified, and how these faults were eventually diagnosed and corrected. The impacts of these system failures on end-use consumers are discussed before concluding with a brief overview of areas where further research is required in order to more fully understand whole of supply chain implications.

Positive design and construction of mechanisms for the sustainable development in microenterprises in Africa

Enterprise development and its contribution to societal and economic outcomes are well known. However, limited research into microenterprises and the practices of microfinance and microcredit in developing countries has been carried out. This chapter presents the findings of research based on six years of engagement with the microentrepreneurs of Beira in Mozambique and suggests a model for responsible and sustainable support for enterprise development in developing economies. Building on semistructured interviews, observation, and participatory action research, this research project articulates a new approach supportive of enterprise development, as a process of cocreation with local people and based on sustainability principles. These findings are part of a longitudinal study of the successes and failures of small enterprises and their impact on social and economic activity.

Infrastructure sustainability : vulnerability of axially loaded columns subjected to transverse impact loads

Increased industrialisation has brought to the forefront the susceptibility of concrete columns in both buildings and bridges to vehicle impacts. Accurate vulnerability assessments are crucial in the design process due to possible catastrophic nature of the failures that can cause. This chapter reports on research undertaken to investigate the impact capacity of the columns of low to medium raised building designed according to the Australian standards. Numerical simulation techniques were used in the process and validation was done by using experimental results published in the literature. The investigation thus far has confirmed that vulnerability of typical columns in five story buildings located in urban areas to medium velocity car impacts and hence these columns need to be re-designed or retrofitted. In addition, accuracy of the simplified method presented in EN 1991-1-7 to quantify the impact damage was scrutinised. A simplified concept to assess the damage due to all collisions modes was introduced. The research information will be extended to generate a common data base to assess the vulnerability of columns in urban areas against new generation of vehicles.

Effects of dry density and grain size distribution on soil-water characteristic curves of sandy soils

The unsaturated soil mechanics is receiving increasing attention from researchers and as well as from practicing engineers. However, the requirement of sophisticated devices to measure unsaturated soil properties and time consumption have made the geotechnical engineers keep away from implication of the unsaturated soil mechanics for solving practical geotechnical problems. The application of the conventional laboratory devices with some modifications to measure unsaturated soil properties can promote the application of unsaturated soil mechanics into engineering practice. Therefore, in the present study, a conventional direct shear device was modified to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction. Specially, for the analysis of rain-induced slope failures, it is important to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction where slopes become unstable. The modified device was used to measure unsaturated shear strength of two silty soils at low suction values (0 ~ 50 kPa) that were achieved by following drying path and wetting path of soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs) of soils. The results revealed that the internal friction angle of soil was not significantly affected by the suction and as well as the drying-wetting SWCCs of soils. The apparent cohesion of soil increased with a decreasing rate as the suction increased. Further, the apparent cohesion obtained from soil in wetting was greater than that obtained from soil in drying. Shear stress-shear displacement curves obtained from soil specimens subjected to the same net normal stress and different suction values showed a higher initial stiffness and a greater peak stress as the suction increased. In addition, it was observed that soil became more dilative with the increase of suction. A soil in wetting exhibited slightly higher peak shear stress and more contractive volume change behaviour than that of in drying at the same net normal stress and the suction.

Investigation on parameters used in warning systems for rain-induced embankment instability

A number of instrumented laboratory-scale soil embankment slopes were subjected to artificial rainfall until they failed. The factor of safety of the slope based on real-time measurements of pore-water pressure (suction) and laboratory measured soil properties were calculated as the rainfall progressed. Based on the experiment measurements and slope stability analysis, it was observed that slope displacement measurements can be used to warn the slope failure more accurately. Further, moisture content/pore-water pressure measurements near the toe of the slope and the real-time factor of safety can also be used for prediction of rainfall-induced embankment failures with adequate accuracy.

Genetic resources in wild and cultured stocks of the Asian mud crab, Scylla paramamosain

The mud crab (Scylla spp.) aquaculture industry has expanded rapidly in recent years in many countries in the Indo - West Pacific (IWP) region as an alternative to marine shrimp culture because of significant disease outbreaks and associated failures of many shrimp culture industries in the region. Currently, practices used to produce and manage breeding crabs in hatcheries may compromise levels of genetic diversity, ultimately compromising growth rates, disease resistance and stock productivity. Therefore, to avoid “genetic pollution” and its harmful effects and to promote further development of mud crab aquaculture and fisheries in a sustainable way, a greater understanding of the genetic attributes of wild and cultured mud crab stocks is required. Application of these results can provide benefits for managing wild and cultured Asian mud crab populations for multiple purposes including for commercial production, recreation and conservation and to increase profitability and sustainability of newly emerging crab culture industries. Phylogeographic patterns and the genetic structure of Asian mud crab populations across the IWP were assessed to determine if they were concordant with those of other widespread taxa possessing pelagic larvae of relatively long duration. A 597 bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA COI gene was amplified and screened for variation in a total of 297 individuals of S. paramamosain from six sampling sites across the species’ natural geographical distribution in the IWP and 36 unique haplotypes were identified. Haplotype diversities per site ranged from 0.516 to 0.879. Nucleotide diversity estimates among haplotypes were 0.11% – 0.48%. Maximum divergence observed among S. paramamosain samples was 1.533% and samples formed essentially a single monophyletic group as no obvious clades were related to geographical location of sites. A weak positive relationship was observed however, between genetic distance and geographical distance among sites. Microsatellite markers were then used to assess contemporary gene flow and population structure in Asian mud crab populations sampled across their natural distribution in the IWP. Eight microsatellite loci were screened in sampled S. paramamosain populations and all showed high allelic diversity at all loci in sampled populations. In total, 344 individuals were analysed, and 304 microsatellite alleles were found across the 8 loci. The mean number of alleles per locus at each site ranged from 20.75 to 28.25. Mean allelic richness per site varied from 17.2 to 18.9. All sites showed high levels of heterozygosity as average expected heterozygosities for all loci ranged from 0.917 – 0.953 while mean observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.916 – 0.959. Allele diversities were similar at all sites and across all loci. The results did not show any evidence for major differences in allele frequencies among sites and patterns of allele frequencies were very similar in all populations across all loci. Estimates of population differentiation (FST) were relatively low and most probably largely reflect intra – individual variation for very highly variable loci. Results from nDNA analysis showed evidence for only very limited population genetic structure among sampled S. paramamosain, and a positive and significant association for genetic and geographical distance among sample sites. Microsatellite markers were then employed to determine if adequate levels of genetic diversity has been captured in crab hatcheries for the breeding cycle. The results showed that all microsatellite loci were polymorphic in hatchery samples. Culture populations were in general, highly genetically depauperate, compared with comparable wild populations, with only 3 to 8 alleles recorded for the same loci set per population. In contrast, very high numbers of alleles per locus were found in reference wild S. paramamosain populations, which ranged from 18 to 46 alleles per locus per population. In general, this translates into a 3 to 10 fold decline in mean allelic richness per locus in all culture stocks compared with wild reference counterparts. Furthermore, most loci in all cultured S. paramamosain samples showed departures from HWE equilibrium. Allele frequencies were very different in culture samples from that present in comparable wild reference samples and this in particular, was reflected in a large decline in allele diversity per locus. The pattern observed was best explained by significant impacts of breeding practices employed in hatcheries rather than natural differentiation among wild populations used as the source of brood stock. Recognition of current problems and management strategies for the species both for the medium and long-term development of the new culture industry are discussed. The priority research to be undertaken over the medium term for S. paramamosain should be to close the life cycle fully to allow individuals to be bred on demand and their offspring equalised to control broodstock reproductive contributions. Establishing a broodstock register and pedigree mating system will be required before any selection program is implemented. This will ensure that sufficient genetic variation will be available to allow genetic gains to be sustainably achieved in a future stock improvement program. A fundamental starting point to improve hatchery practices will be to encourage farmers and hatchery managers to spawn more females in their hatcheries as it will increase background genetic diversity in culture stocks. Combining crablet cohorts from multiple hatcheries into a single cohort for supply to farmers or rotation of breeding females regularly in hatcheries will help to address immediate genetic diversity problems in culture stocks. Application of these results can provide benefits for managing wild and cultured Asian mud crab populations more efficiently. Over the long-term, application of data on genetic diversity in wild and cultured stocks of Asian mud crab will contribute to development of sustainable and productive culture industries in Vietnam and other countries in the IWP and can contribute towards conservation of wild genetic resources.

Remediation strategies of shaft and common mode voltages in adjustable speed drive systems

AC motors are largely used in a wide range of modern systems, from household appliances to automated industry applications such as: ventilations systems, fans, pumps, conveyors and machine tool drives. Inverters are widely used in industrial and commercial applications due to the growing need for speed control in ASD systems. Fast switching transients and the common mode voltage, in interaction with parasitic capacitive couplings, may cause many unwanted problems in the ASD applications. These include shaft voltage and leakage currents. One of the inherent characteristics of Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) techniques is the generation of the common mode voltage, which is defined as the voltage between the electrical neutral of the inverter output and the ground. Shaft voltage can cause bearing currents when it exceeds the amount of breakdown voltage level of the thin lubricant film between the inner and outer rings of the bearing. This phenomenon is the main reason for early bearing failures. A rapid development in power switches technology has lead to a drastic decrement of switching rise and fall times. Because there is considerable capacitance between the stator windings and the frame, there can be a significant capacitive current (ground current escaping to earth through stray capacitors inside a motor) if the common mode voltage has high frequency components. This current leads to noises and Electromagnetic Interferences (EMI) issues in motor drive systems. These problems have been dealt with using a variety of methods which have been reported in the literature. However, cost and maintenance issues have prevented these methods from being widely accepted. Extra cost or rating of the inverter switches is usually the price to pay for such approaches. Thus, the determination of cost-effective techniques for shaft and common mode voltage reduction in ASD systems, with the focus on the first step of the design process, is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research – including a description of the research problem, the literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers – is presented in Chapter 1. Electrical power generation from renewable energy sources, such as wind energy systems, has become a crucial issue because of environmental problems and a predicted future shortage of traditional energy sources. Thus, Chapter 2 focuses on the shaft voltage analysis of stator-fed induction generators (IG) and Doubly Fed Induction Generators DFIGs in wind turbine applications. This shaft voltage analysis includes: topologies, high frequency modelling, calculation and mitigation techniques. A back-to-back AC-DC-AC converter is investigated in terms of shaft voltage generation in a DFIG. Different topologies of LC filter placement are analysed in an effort to eliminate the shaft voltage. Different capacitive couplings exist in the motor/generator structure and any change in design parameters affects the capacitive couplings. Thus, an appropriate design for AC motors should lead to the smallest possible shaft voltage. Calculation of the shaft voltage based on different capacitive couplings, and an investigation of the effects of different design parameters are discussed in Chapter 3. This is achieved through 2-D and 3-D finite element simulation and experimental analysis. End-winding parameters of the motor are also effective factors in the calculation of the shaft voltage and have not been taken into account in previous reported studies. Calculation of the end-winding capacitances is rather complex because of the diversity of end winding shapes and the complexity of their geometry. A comprehensive analysis of these capacitances has been carried out with 3-D finite element simulations and experimental studies to determine their effective design parameters. These are documented in Chapter 4. Results of this analysis show that, by choosing appropriate design parameters, it is possible to decrease the shaft voltage and resultant bearing current in the primary stage of generator/motor design without using any additional active and passive filter-based techniques. The common mode voltage is defined by a switching pattern and, by using the appropriate pattern; the common mode voltage level can be controlled. Therefore, any PWM pattern which eliminates or minimizes the common mode voltage will be an effective shaft voltage reduction technique. Thus, common mode voltage reduction of a three-phase AC motor supplied with a single-phase diode rectifier is the focus of Chapter 5. The proposed strategy is mainly based on proper utilization of the zero vectors. Multilevel inverters are also used in ASD systems which have more voltage levels and switching states, and can provide more possibilities to reduce common mode voltage. A description of common mode voltage of multilevel inverters is investigated in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 investigates the elimination techniques of the shaft voltage in a DFIG based on the methods presented in the literature by the use of simulation results. However, it could be shown that every solution to reduce the shaft voltage in DFIG systems has its own characteristics, and these have to be taken into account in determining the most effective strategy. Calculation of the capacitive coupling and electric fields between the outer and inner races and the balls at different motor speeds in symmetrical and asymmetrical shaft and balls positions is discussed in Chapter 8. The analysis is carried out using finite element simulations to determine the conditions which will increase the probability of high rates of bearing failure due to current discharges through the balls and races.

Application of acoustic emission technology in monitoring structure integrity of bridges

Bridges are an important part of a nation’s infrastructure and reliable monitoring methods are necessary to ensure their safety and efficiency. Most bridges in use today were built decades ago and are now subjected to changes in load patterns that can cause localized distress, which can result in bridge failure if not corrected. Early detection of damage helps in prolonging lives of bridges and preventing catastrophic failures. This paper briefly reviews the various technologies currently used in health monitoring of bridge structures and in particular discusses the application and challenges of acoustic emission (AE) technology. Some of the results from laboratory experiments on a bridge model are also presented. The main objectives of these experiments are source localisation and assessment. The findings of the study can be expected to enhance the knowledge of acoustic emission process and thereby aid in the development of an effective bridge structure diagnostics system.