The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Influence of the diesel fuel sulfur content on the formation of nanoparticles

In recent years fine and ultra fine particles emitted from internal combustion engines have attracted an increasing level of attention. This attention has arisen from epidemiological studies conducted by a number of research groups and pointing to the health effects resulting from inhalation of fine particles. Previous studies on the influence of fuel sulfur level on diesel vehicle emissions were mainly concentrated on particle mass emissions. This study aims at investigating the influence of the reduction of diesel fuel sulfur level on the emission and formation of nanoparticles

A comparative investigation of C6-C15 hydrocarbons emitted from a passenger car powered by unleaded petrol and 10% ethanol fuel

Twenty-three non-methane hydrocarbons were captured from the exhaust of a car operating on unleaded petrol (ULP) and 10% ethanol fuels at steady speed on a chassis dynamometer. The compounds were identified and quantified by GC/MS/FID and their emission concentrations at 60 km/h, 80km/h and idle speed were evaluated. The most abundant compounds in the exhaust included n-hexane, n-heptane, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, m- and p-xylenes, and methylcyclopentane. Because of the large number of compounds involved, no attempt was made to compare the emission concentrations of the compounds. Rather the sum of the emission concentrations for the suite of compounds identified was compared when the car was powered by ULP and 10% ethanol fuel. It was evident from the results that the emission concentrations and factors were generally higher with ULP than with 10% ethanol fuel. The total emission concentrations with the ULP fuel were 2.8, 4.2 and 2.6 times the corresponding values for the 10% ethanol fuel at 60km/h, 80km/h and idle speed, respectively. The implications of the results on the environment are discussed in the paper.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

Issues associated with using trash as a cogeneration fuel

Considerable work has been undertaken to determine an economical process to provide sugarcane trash as a fuel for cogeneration. This paper reviews efforts to provide that trash fuel by harvesting, transporting and processing the trash with the cane. Harvesting trash with the cane has the advantage that cane that would otherwise be lost by extracting it with the trash is captured and sugar can be produced from that cane. Transporting trash with the cane significantly reduces the bulk density of the cane, requiring substantial changes and costs to cane transport. Shredding the trash at the harvester and compacting the cane in the bin prior to transport are possible methods to increase the bulk density but both have considerable cost. Processing trash through the sugar factory with the cane significantly reduces sugar recovery and sugar quality. Although considerable knowledge has been gained of these effects and further analysis has provided insights into their causes, much more work is required before whole crop harvesting and transport is an economically viable means of trash recovery.

Porous versus porthole fuel injection in a radical farming scramjet: A numerical analysis

Numerically computed engine performance of a nominally two-dimensional radical farming scramjet with porous (permeable C/C ceramic) and porthole fuel injection is presented. Inflow conditions with Mach number, stagnation pressure, and enthalpy of 6.44, 40.2MPa, and 4.31 MJ/kg respectively, and fuel/air equivalence ratio of 0.44 were maintained, along with engine geometry. Hydrogen fuel was injected at an axial location of 92.33mm downstream of the leading edge for each investigated injection method. Results from this study show that porous fuel injection results in enhanced mixing and combustion compared to porthole fuel injection. This is particularly evident within the first half of the combustion chamber where porous fuel injection resulted in mixing and combustion efficiencies of 76% and 63% respectively. At the same location, porthole fuel injection resulted in efficiencies respectively of 58% and 46%. Key mechanisms contributing to the observed improved performance were the formation of an attached oblique fuel injection shock and associated stronger shock-expansion train ingested by the engine, enhanced spreading of the fuel in all directions and a more rapidly growing mixing layer.

Porous fuel injection with oxygen enrichment in a viable scramjet engine

Oxygen enriched, porous fuel injection has been numerically investigated in this study with the aim of understanding mixing and combustion enhancements achievable in a viable scramjet engine. Four injection configurations were studied: a fuel only case, a pre-mixed case and two staged injection cases where fuel and oxidiser were injected independently. All simulations were performed on a flight scale vehicle at Mach 8 flow conditions. Results show that the addition of oxygen with the fuel increases the mixing efficiency of the engine, however, is less sensitive to the method of oxygen addition: premixed versus staged. When the fuel-oxidiser-air mixture was allowed to combust, the method of additional oxygen delivery had a more significant impact. For pre-mixed fuel and oxidiser, the engine was found to choke, whereas in contrast, in the staged enrichment cases the engine failed to ignite. This result indicates that there exists an optimised configuration between pre-mixed and staged oxygen enrichment which results in a started, and combusting engine.

Numerical investigation of upstream fuel injection through porous media for scramjet engines via surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms

A multi-objective design optimization study has been conducted for upstream fuel injection through porous media applied to the first ramp of a two-dimensional scramjet intake. The optimization has been performed by coupling evolutionary algorithms assisted by surrogate modeling and computational fluid dynamics with respect to three design criteria, that is, the maximization of the absolute mixing quantity, total pressure saving, and fuel penetration. A distinct Pareto optimal front has been obtained, highlighting the counteracting behavior of the total pressure against the mixing efficiency and fuel penetration. The injector location and size have been identified as the key design parameters as a result of a sensitivity analysis, with negligible influence of the porous properties in the configurations and conditions considered in the present study. Flowfield visualization has revealed the underlying physics associated with the effects of these dominant parameters on the shock structure and intensity.

Higher fuel prices are associated with lower air pollution levels

Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts.

Acoustic emission activity from the two main types of small multi-cylinder diesel engine fuel injection systems

Effective fuel injector operation and efficient combustion are two of the most critical aspects when Diesel engine performance, efficiency and reliability are considered. Indeed, it is widely acknowledged that fuel injection equipment faults lead to increased fuel consumption, reduced power, greater levels of exhaust emissions and even unexpected engine failure. Previous investigations have identified fuel injector related acoustic emission activity as being caused by mechanisms such as fuel line pressure build-up; fuel flow through injector nozzles, injector needle opening and closing impacts and premixed combustion related pulses. Few of these investigations however, have attempted to categorise the close association and interrelation that exists between fuel injection equipment function and the acoustic emission generating mechanisms. Consequently, a significant amount of ambiguity remains in the interpretation and categorisation of injector related AE activity with respect to the functional characteristics of specific fuel injection equipment. The investigation presented addresses this ambiguity by detailing a study in which AE signals were recorded and analysed from two different Diesel engines employing the two commonly encountered yet fundamentally different types of fuel injection equipment. Results from tests in which faults were induced into fuel injector nozzles from both indirect-injection and direct-injection engines show that functional differences between the main types of fuel injection equipment results in acoustic emission activity which can be specifically related to the type of fuel injection equipment used.

Microalgal biomass as a fermentation feedstock for bioethanol production

BACKGROUND The increasing cost of fossil fuels as well as the escalating social and industrial awareness of the environmental impacts associated with the use of fossil fuels has created the need for more sustainable fuel options. Bioethanol, produced from renewable biomass such as sugar and starch materials, is believed to be one of these options, and it is currently being harnessed extensively. However, the utilization of sugar and starch materials as feedstocks for bioethanol production creates a major competition with the food market in terms of land for cultivation, and this makes bioethanol from these sources economically less attractive. RESULT This study explores the suitability of microalgae (Chlorococum sp.) as a substrate for bioethanol production via yeast (Saccharomycesbayanus)under different fermentation conditions. Results show a maximum ethanol concentration of 3.83 g L -1 obtained from 10 g L-1 of lipid-extracted microalgae debris. CONCLUSION This productivity level (∼38% w/w), which is in keeping with that of current production systems endorses microalgae as a promising substrate for bioethanol production.

Combustion enhancement in a scramjet engine using oxygen enrichment and porous fuel injection

This paper reports on the experimental testing of oxygen-enriched porous fuel injection in a scramjet engine. Fuel was injected via inlet mounted, oxide-based ceramic matrix composite (CMC) injectors on both flow path surfaces that covered a total of 9.2 % of the intake surface area. All experiments were performed at an enthalpy of 3.93−4.25±3.2% MJ kg−1, flight Mach number 9.2–9.6 and an equivalence ratio of 0.493±3%. At this condition, the engine was shown to be on the verge of achieving appreciable combustion. Oxygen was then added to the fuel prior to injection such that two distinct enrichment levels were achieved. Combustion was found to increase, by as much as 40 % in terms of combustion-induced pressure rise, over the fuel-only case with increasing oxygen enrichment. Further, the onset of combustion was found to move upstream with increasing levels of oxygen enrichment. Thrust, both uninstalled and specific, and specific impulse were found to be improved with oxygen enrichment. Enhanced fuel–air mixing due to the pre-mixing of oxygen with the fuel together with the porous fuel injection are believed to be the main contributors to the observed enhanced performance of the tested engine.

Investigation of the effects of the fatty acid profile on fuel properties using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

The structural features of fatty acids in biodiesel, including degree of unsaturation, percentage of saturated fatty acids and average chain length, influence important fuel properties such as cetane number, iodine value, density, kinematic viscosity, higher heating value and oxidation stability. The composition of fatty acid esters within the fuel should therefore be in the correct ratio to ensure fuel properties are within international biodiesel standards such as ASTM 6751 or EN 14214. This study scrutinises the influence of fatty acid composition and individual fatty acids on fuel properties. Fuel properties were estimated based on published equations, and measured according to standard procedure ASTM D6751 and EN 14214 to confirm the influences of the fatty acid profile. Based on fatty acid profile-derived calculations, the cetane number of the microalgal biodiesel was estimated to be 11.6, but measured 46.5, which emphasises the uncertainty of the method used for cetane number calculation. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), PROMETHEE-GAIA, was used to determine the influence of individual fatty acids on fuel properties in the GAIA plane. Polyunsaturated fatty acids increased the iodine value and had a negative influence on cetane number. Kinematic viscosity was negatively influenced by some long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids such as C20:5 and C22:6 and some of the more common saturated fatty acids C14:0 and C18:0. The positive impact of average chain length on higher heating value was also confirmed in the GAIA plane