Barriers to bikesharing : an analysis from Melbourne and Brisbane

This study quantifies the motivators and barriers to bikeshare program usage in Australia. An online survey was administered to a sample of annual members of Australia’s two bikeshare programs based in Brisbane and Melbourne, to assess motivations for joining the schemes. Non-members of the programs were also sampled in order to identify current barriers to joining bikeshare. Spatial analysis from Brisbane revealed residential and work locations of non-members were more geographically dispersed than for bikeshare members. An analysis of bikeshare usage in Melbourne showed a strong relationship between docking stations in areas with relatively less accessible public transit opportunities. The most influential barriers to bikeshare use related to motorized travel being too convenient and docking stations not being sufficiently close to home, work and other frequented destinations. The findings suggest that bikeshare programs may attract increased membership by ensuring travel times are competitive with motorized travel, for example through efficient bicycle routing and priority progression and, by expanding docking station locations, and by increasing the level of convenience associated with scheme use. Convenience considerations may include strategic location of docking stations, ease of signing up and integration with public transport.

A time series analysis of presentations to Queensland health facilities for alcohol-related conditions, following the increase in 'alcopops' tax

Objective: In response to concerns about the health consequences of high-risk drinking by young people, the Australian Government increased the tax on pre-mixed alcoholic beverages ('alcopops') favoured by this demographic. We measured changes in admissions for alcohol-related harm to health throughout Queensland, before and after the tax increase in April 2008. Methods: We used data from the Queensland Trauma Register, Hospitals Admitted Patients Data Collection, and the Emergency Department Information System to calculate alcohol-related admission rates per 100,000 people, for 15 - 29 year-olds. We analysed data over 3 years (April 2006 - April 2009), using interrupted time-series analyses. This covered 2 years before, and 1 year after, the tax increase. We investigated both mental and behavioural consequences (via F10 codes), and intentional/unintentional injuries (S and T codes). Results: We fitted an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to test for any changes following the increased tax. There was no decrease in alcohol-related admissions in 15 - 29 year-olds. We found similar results for males and females, as well as definitions of alcohol-related harms that were narrow (F10 codes only) and broad (F10, S and T codes). Conclusions: The increased tax on 'alcopops' was not associated with any reduction in hospital admissions for alcohol-related harms in Queensland 15 - 29 year-olds.

Porous versus porthole fuel injection in a radical farming scramjet: A numerical analysis

Numerically computed engine performance of a nominally two-dimensional radical farming scramjet with porous (permeable C/C ceramic) and porthole fuel injection is presented. Inflow conditions with Mach number, stagnation pressure, and enthalpy of 6.44, 40.2MPa, and 4.31 MJ/kg respectively, and fuel/air equivalence ratio of 0.44 were maintained, along with engine geometry. Hydrogen fuel was injected at an axial location of 92.33mm downstream of the leading edge for each investigated injection method. Results from this study show that porous fuel injection results in enhanced mixing and combustion compared to porthole fuel injection. This is particularly evident within the first half of the combustion chamber where porous fuel injection resulted in mixing and combustion efficiencies of 76% and 63% respectively. At the same location, porthole fuel injection resulted in efficiencies respectively of 58% and 46%. Key mechanisms contributing to the observed improved performance were the formation of an attached oblique fuel injection shock and associated stronger shock-expansion train ingested by the engine, enhanced spreading of the fuel in all directions and a more rapidly growing mixing layer.

Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever cases in Guangdong province, China

Background Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in China since it re-emerged in Guangdong province in 1978. This study aimed to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of dengue fever cases for both indigenous and imported cases during recent years in Guangdong province, so as to identify high-risk areas of the province and thereby help plan resource allocation for dengue interventions. Methods Notifiable cases of dengue fever were collected from all 123 counties of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2010. Descriptive temporal and spatial analysis were conducted, including plotting of seasonal distribution of cases, and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence by county. The space-time scan statistic was used to determine space-time clusters of dengue fever cases at the county level, and a geographical information system was used to visualize the location of the clusters. Analysis were stratified by imported and indigenous origin. Results 1658 dengue fever cases were recorded in Guangdong province during the study period, including 94 imported cases and 1564 indigenous cases. Both imported and indigenous cases occurred more frequently in autumn. The areas affected by the indigenous and imported cases presented a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The results showed that the most likely cluster of imported cases (relative risk = 7.52, p < 0.001) and indigenous cases (relative risk = 153.56, p < 0.001) occurred in the Pearl River Delta Area; while a secondary cluster of indigenous cases occurred in one district of the Chao Shan Area (relative risk = 471.25, p < 0.001). Conclusions This study demonstrated that the geographic range of imported and indigenous dengue fever cases has expanded over recent years, and cases were significantly clustered in two heavily urbanised areas of Guangdong province. This provides the foundation for further investigation of risk factors and interventions in these high-risk areas.

Cone location and correction of keratoconus with rigid gas-permeable contact lenses

Purpose To evaluate the influence of cone location and corneal cylinder on RGP corrected visual acuities and residual astigmatism in patients with keratoconus. Methods In this prospective study, 156 eyes from 134 patients were enrolled. Complete ophthalmologic examination including manifest refraction, Best spectacle visual acuity (BSCVA), slit-lamp biomicroscopy was performed and corneal topography analysis was done. According to the cone location on the topographic map, the patients were divided into central and paracentral cone groups. Trial RGP lenses were selected based on the flat Sim K readings and a ‘three-point touch’ fitting approach was used. Over contact lens refraction was performed, residual astigmatism (RA) was measured and best-corrected RGP visual acuities (RGPVA) were recorded. Results The mean age (±SD) was 22.1 ± 5.3 years. 76 eyes (48.6%) had central and 80 eyes (51.4%) had paracentral cone. Prior to RGP lenses fitting mean (±SD) subjective refraction spherical equivalent (SRSE), subjective refraction astigmatism (SRAST) and BSCVA (logMAR) were −5.04 ± 2.27 D, −3.51 ± 1.68 D and 0.34 ± 0.14, respectively. There were statistically significant differences between central and paracentral cone groups in mean values of SRSE, SRAST, flat meridian (Sim K1), steep meridian (Sim K2), mean K and corneal cylinder (p-values < 0.05). Comparison of BSCVA to RGPVA shows that vision has improved 0.3 logMAR by RGP lenses (p < 0.0001). Mean (±SD) RA was −0.72 ± 0.39 D. There were no statistically significant differences between RGPVAs and RAs of central and paracentral cone groups (p = 0.22) and (p = 0.42), respectively. Pearson's correlation analysis shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between corneal cylinder and BSCVA and RGPVA, However, the relationship between corneal cylinder and residual astigmatism was not significant. Conclusions Cone location has no effect on the RGP corrected visual acuities and residual astigmatism in patients with keratoconus. Corneal cylinder and Sim K values influence RGP-corrected visual acuities but do not influence residual astigmatism.

Statistical, electrical and mathematical analysis of water treed cross-linked polyethylene cable insulation

This work examined a new method of detecting small water filled cracks in underground insulation ('water trees') using data from commecially available non-destructive testing equipment. A testing facility was constructed and a computer simulation of the insulation designed in order to test the proposed ageing factor - the degree of non-linearity. This was a large industry-backed project involving an ARC linkage grant, Ergon Energy and the University of Queensland, as well as the Queensland University of Technology.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

Association between the interleukin 23 receptor and ankylosing spondylitis is confirmed by a new UK case-control study and meta-analysis of published series

Objectives. It has been shown previously that IL-23R variants are associated with AS. We conducted an extended analysis in the UK population and a meta-analysis with the previously published studies, in order to refine these IL-23R associations with AS. Methods. The UK case-control study included 730 new cases and 1331 healthy controls. In the extended study, the 730 cases were combined with 1088 published cases. Allelic associations were analysed using contingency tables. In the meta-analysis, 3482 cases and 3150 controls from four different published studies and the new UK cases were combined. DerSimonian-Laird test was used to calculate random effects pooled odds ratios (ORs). Results. In the UK case-control study with new cases, four of the eight SNPs showed significant associations, whereas in the extended UK study, seven of the eight IL-23R SNPs showed significant associations (P < 0.05) with AS, maximal with rs11209032 (P < 10-5, OR 1.3), when cases with IBD and/or psoriasis were excluded. The meta-analysis showed significant associations with all eight SNPs; the strongest associations were again seen not only with rs11209032 (P = 4.06 × 10-9, OR ∼1.2) but also with rs11209026 (P < 10-10, OR ∼0.6). Conclusions. IL-23R polymorphisms are clearly associated with AS, but the primary causal association(s) is(are) still not established. These polymorphisms could contribute either increased or decreased susceptibility to AS; functional studies will be required for their full evaluation. Additionally, observed stronger associations with SNPs rs11209026 and rs11465804 upon exclusion of IBD and/or psoriasis cases may represent an independent association with AS. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved.

How does calcification influence plaque vulnerability? Insights from fatigue analysis

Background Calcification is commonly believed to be associated with cardiovascular disease burden. But whether or not the calcifications have a negative effect on plaque vulnerability is still under debate. Methods and Results Fatigue rupture analysis and the fatigue life were used to evaluate the rupture risk. An idealized baseline model containing no calcification was first built. Based on the baseline model, we investigated the influence of calcification on rupture path and fatigue life by adding a circular calcification and changing its location within the fibrous cap area. Results show that 84.0% of calcified cases increase the fatigue life up to 11.4%. For rupture paths 10D far from the calcification, the life change is negligible. Calcifications close to lumen increase more fatigue life than those close to the lipid pool. Also, calcifications in the middle area of fibrous cap increase more fatigue life than those in the shoulder area. Conclusion Calcifications may play a positive role in the plaque stability. The influence of the calcification only exists in a local area. Calcifications close to lumen may be influenced more than those close to lipid pool. And calcifications in the middle area of fibrous cap are seemly influenced more than those in the shoulder area.

Fatigue crack propagation analysis of plaque rupture

Rupture of atheromatous plaque is the major cause of stroke or heart attack. Considering that the cardiovascular system is a classic fatigue environment, plaque rupture was treated as a chronic fatigue crack growth process in this study. Fracture mechanics theory was introduced to describe the stress status at the crack tip and Paris' law was used to calculate the crack growth rate. The effect of anatomical variation of an idealized plaque cross-section model was investigated. The crack initiation was considered to be either at the maximum circumferential stress location or at any other possible locations around the lumen. Although the crack automatically initialized at the maximum circumferential stress location usually propagated faster than others, it was not necessarily the most critical location where the fatigue life reached its minimum. We found that the fatigue life was minimum for cracks initialized in the following three regions: the midcap zone, the shoulder zone, and the backside zone. The anatomical variation has a significant influence on the fatigue life. Either a decrease in cap thickness or an increase in lipid pool size resulted in a significant decrease in fatigue life. Comparing to the previously used stress analysis, this fatigue model provides some possible explanations of plaque rupture at a low stress level in a pulsatile cardiovascular environment, and the method proposed here may be useful for further investigation of the mechanism of plaque rupture based on in vivo patient data.

MRI-based fatigue analysis predicts plaque vulnerability: A study comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals

BACKGROUND: Rupture of atheromatous plaque in the carotid artery often leads to thrombosis and subsequent stroke. The mechanism of plaque rupture is not entirely clear but is thought to be a multi-factorial process involving thinning and weakening of the fibrous cap and biomechanical stress as the trigger leading to plaque rupture. As the cardiovascular system is a classic fatigue environment, the weakening of plaque leading to rupture may be a fatigue process, which is a symptomatically quiescent but potentially progressive failure process. In this study, we used a fatigue analysis based on in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to investigate the rupture initiation location, crack propagation path and fatigue life within plaques of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals. METHODS: Forty non-consecutive subjects (20 symptomatic and 20 asymptomatic) underwent high-resolution multi-sequence in vivo MRI of the carotid bifurcation. Fatigue analysis was performed based on the plaque geometry derived from in vivo MRI of the carotid artery at the point of maximum stenosis. Paris’ Law in fracture mechanics is adopted to determine the fatigue crack growth rate. Incremental crack propagation was dynamically simulated based on stress distributions. Plaque initiation location, crack propagation path and fatigue cycle of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals were compared. RESULTS: Cracks were often found to begin at the lumen wall at areas of stress concentration. The preferred rupture direction was radial from the lumen center. The crack initially advanced slowly but accelerated as it developed, depending on plaque morphology. The fatigue cycles of symptomatic plaques were significantly less than those in the asymptomatic group (2.3 ± 0.9 vs 3.1 ± 0.7 (x106); p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The number of cycles to rupture in symptomatic patients was higher than those predicted in asymptomatic patients by fatigue analysis, suggesting the possibility that plaques with a less fatigue life may be more prone to be symptomatic and rupture. If further validated by large-scale longitudinal studies, fatigue analysis based on high resolution in vivo MRI could potentially act as a useful tool for risk assessment of carotid atheroma.

Does calcium deposition play a role in the stability of atheroma? Location may be the key

Background: Rupture of vulnerable atheromatous plaque in the carotid and coronary arteries often leads to stroke and heart attack respectively. The role of calcium deposition and its contribution to plaque stability is controversial. This study uses both an idealized and a patient-specific model to evaluate the effect of a calcium deposit on the stress distribution within an atheromatous plaque. Methods: Using a finite-element method, structural analysis was performed on an idealized plaque model and the location of a calcium deposit within it was varied. In addition to the idealized model, in vivo high-resolution MR imaging was performed on 3 patients with carotid atheroma and stress distributions were generated. The individual plaques were chosen as they had calcium at varying locations with respect to the lumen and the fibrous cap. Results: The predicted maximum stress was increased by 47.5% when the calcium deposit was located in the thin fibrous cap in the model when compared with that in a model without a deposit. The result of adding a calcium deposit either to the lipid core or remote from the lumen resulted in almost no increase in maximal stress. Conclusion: Calcification at the thin fibrous cap may result in high stress concentrations, ultimately increasing the risk of plaque rupture. Assessing the location of calcification may, in the future, aid in the risk stratification of patients with carotid stenosis.

Correlation of macrophage location and plaque stress distribution using USPIO-enhanced MRI in a patient with symptomatic severe carotid stenosis: A new insight into risk stratification

High resolution, USPIO-enhanced MR imaging can be used to identify inflamed atherosclerotic plaque. We report a case of a 79-year-old man with a symptomatic carotid stenosis of 82%. The plaque was retrieved for histology and finite element analysis (FEA) based on the preoperative MR imaging was used to predict maximal Von Mises stress on the plaque. Macrophage location correlated with maximal predicted stresses on the plaque. This supports the hypothesis that macrophages thin the fibrous cap at points of highest stress, leading to an increased risk of plaque rupture and subsequent stroke.

Analysis of physical activity in emmetropic and myopic university students during semester and holiday periods: A pilot study

Background Previous studies (mostly questionnaire-based in children) suggest that outdoor activity is protective against myopia. There are few studies on young adults investigating both the impact of simply being outdoors versus performing physical activity. The aim was to study the relationship between the refractive error of young adults and their physical activity patterns. Methods Twenty-seven university students, aged 18 to 25 years, wore a pedometer (Omron HJ720ITE) for seven days both during the semester and holiday periods. They simultaneously recorded the type of activity performed, its duration, the number of steps taken (from the pedometer) and their location (indoors/outdoors) in a logbook. Mean spherical refractive error was used to divide participants into three groups (emmetropes: +1.00 to -0.50 D, low myopes: -0.62 to -3.00 D, higher myopes: -3.12 D or greater myopia). Results There were no significant differences between the refractive groups during the semester or holiday periods; the average daily times spent outdoors, the duration of physical activity, the ratio of physical activity performed outdoors to indoors and amount of near work performed were similar. The peak exercise intensity was similar across all groups: approximately 100 steps perminute, a brisk walk. Up to one-third of all physical activity was performed outdoors. There were some significant differences in activities performed during semester and holiday times. For example, lowmyopes spent significantly less time outside (49 ± 47 versus 74 ± 41 minutes, p = 0.005) and performed less physical activity (6,388 ± 1,747 versus 6,779 ± 2,746 steps per day; p = 0.03) during the holidays compared to during semester. Conclusions The fact that all groups had similar low exercise intensity butmany were notmyopic suggests that physical activity levels are not critical. There were differences in the activity patterns of lowmyopes during semester and holiday periods. This study highlights the need for a larger longitudinal-based study with particular emphasis on how discretionary time is spent.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour: Properties, inference and application to multivariate clustering

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.