Paper, prices and politics : an evaluation of the Swedish support to the Bai Bang project in Vietnam : a Sida evaluation report

Sweden’s protest against the Vietnam War was given tangible form in 1969 through the decision to give economic aid to the Government of North Vietnam. The main outcome was an integrated pulp and paper mill in the Vinh Phu Province north-west of Hanoi. Known as Bai Bang after its location, the mill became the most costly, one of the longest lasting and the most controversial project in the history of Swedish development cooperation. In 1996 Bai Bang produced at its full capacity. Today the mill is exclusively managed and staffed by the Vietnamese and there are plans for future expansion. At the same time a substantial amount of money has been spent to reach these achievements. Looking back at the cumbersome history of the project the results are against many’s expectations. To learn more about the conditions for sustainable development Sida commissioned two studies of the Bai Bang project. Together they touch upon several important issues in development cooperation over a period of almost 30 years: the change of aid paradigms over time, the role of foreign policy in development cooperation, cultural obstacles, recipient responsibility versus donor led development etc. The two studies were commissioned by Sida’s Department for Evaluation and Internal Audit which is an independent department reporting directly to Sida’s Board of Directors. One study assesses the financial and economic viability of the pulp and paper mill and the broader development impact of the project in Vietnam. It has been carried out by the Centre for International Economics, an Australian private economic research agency. The other study analyses the decision-making processes that created and shaped the project over a period of two decades, and reflects on lessons from the project for development cooperation in general. This study has been carried out by the Chr. Michelsen Institute, a Norweigan independent research institution.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

The effect of procurement on competition and flexibility : determining the suitability of public-private partnerships in major infrastructure projects

A procurement decision-making model is developed based on a novel integration of leading-edge microeconomic theory and empirically tested in major road and health projects. The model provides a more reliable approach to identifying projects suited to Public-Private-Partnerships (PPPs) and it is expected that the model will enable government to deliver improved value-for-money from their portfolio of PPP projects.

Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among oil prices, clean energy stock prices, and technology stock prices, endogenously controlling for structural changes in the market. To this end, we apply Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to the economic system consisting of oil prices, clean energy and technology stock prices, and interest rates. The results indicate that there was a structural change in late 2007, a period in which there was a significant increase in the price of oil. In contrast to the previous studies, we find a positive relationship between oil prices and clean energy prices after structural breaks. There also appears to be a similarity in terms of the market response to both clean energy stock prices and technology stock prices. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

The economics of credence goods : an experiment on the role of liability, verifiability, reputation and competition

Credence goods markets are characterized by asymmetric information between sellers and consumers that may give rise to inefficiencies, such as under- and overtreatment or market breakdown. We study in a large experiment with 936 participants the determinants for efficiency in credence goods markets. While theory predicts that liability or verifiability yield efficiency, we find that liability has a crucial, but verifiability at best a minor, effect. Allowing sellers to build up reputation has little influence, as predicted. Seller competition drives down prices and yields maximal trade, but does not lead to higher efficiency as long as liability is violated. (JEL D12, D82)

Impacts of introduced aquaculture species on markets for native marine aquaculture products : the case of edible oysters in Australia

Economic competition between introduced and native aquaculture species is of interest for industry stakeholders since increased production can affect price formation if both aquaculture species are part of the same market or even substitutes. In this study, we focus on the Australian edible oyster industry, which is dominated by two major species—the native Sydney rock oyster (grown mainly in Queensland and New South Wales) and the non-native Pacific oyster (grown mainly in South Australia and Tasmania). We examine the integration of the Australian oyster market to determine if there exists a single or several markets. Short- and long-run own, cross-price and income flexibilities of demand are estimated for both species using an inverse demand system of equations. The results suggest that the markets for the two species are integrated. We found evidence that the development of the Pacific oyster industry has had an adverse impact on Sydney rock oyster prices. However, our results show that both species are not perfect substitutes. Demand for Sydney rock oysters is relatively inelastic in the long run, yet no long-run relationships can be identified for Pacific oysters, reflecting the developing nature of this sector.

The impact of infrastructure charges on house prices in Australia

Developer paid fees or charges are a commonly used mechanism for local governments to pay for new infrastructure. However, property developers claim that these costs are merely passed on to home buyers, with adverse effects to housing affordability. Despite numerous government reports and many years of industry advocacy, there remains no empirical evidence in Australia to confirm or quantify this passing on effect to home buyers. Hence there remains no data from which governments can base policy decision on, and the debate continues. This paper examines the question of the impact of infrastructure charges on housing affordability in Australia. It presents the findings of a hedonic house price model that provides the first empirical evidence that infrastructure charges do increase house prices in Australia. This research is consistent with international findings, that support the proposition that developer paid infrastructure charges are passed on to home buyers and are a significant contributor to increasing house prices and reduced housing affordability.

Co-movements in commodity prices : a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co-movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co-movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid-2008 to the end of 2009 co-movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co-movement during the sampled period.

Competition Law in Australia [6th ed.]

Competition Law in Australia, 6th edition provides a comprehensive discussion of the provisions of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth) (CCA) dealing with the regulation of competition and markets in Australia. This book covers disparate topics, such as restrictions in horizontal and vertical agreements, horizontal mergers and acquisitions, misuse of market power, and access to services necessary to compete in upstream or downstream markets. However, the unifying theme of this text is that it is not possible to use a formalistic approach in applying the CCA. The decisions of the courts, and the competition authorities responsible for implementing and enforcing the CCA, underline the need to undertake a detailed substantive economic analysis of the effect of the agreement or conduct at issue on competition, efficiency and consumer welfare.

Competition paper. Prostitution and public health in New South Wales

Using historical and contemporary resources, this paper provides a critical account of the contemporary governance of prostitution in New South Wales. A Foucauldian approach is used to analyse the ways in which prostitution has been problematized as a health issue and managed as a public health problem. The analysis differs from other critical studies of prostitution in that it examines specific techniques of power, the operations of which have not been confined to the workings of a repressive criminal justice system. It is shown that there currently co-exists two broad understandings of prostitution in New South Wales, Australia, which have informed current initiatives to manage prostitution. Prostitutes working in public spaces have been presented as sexual agents wilfully engaged in criminal conduct and the spread of contagion. They have been subject to intense official scrutiny and regulated through criminal sanctions. In contrast, prostitutes working in private spaces have been presented as victims of adverse circumstance, deserving of protection and compassion. They have been made subject to strategic interventions that have attempted to normalize prostitution and render the prostitute a hygienic subject.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Infrastructure charges and residential land prices in Brisbane, Australia

This paper examines the question of whether the imposition of developer infrastructure charges on housing developers affects the price of residential land. Developer paid fees or charges are a commonly used mechanism for local governments to fund new infrastructure as a “user pays” method of funding new urban infrastructure. Some argue these costs are passed back to the original land owner by way of lower land prices. However, property developers claim these charges are added on to new land prices, with flow on negative impact to housing affordability. This paper presents the findings of a hedonic land price model that provides the first empirical evidence that infrastructure charges do increase residential land prices in Brisbane, Australia. This research is consistent with international findings and supports the proposition that developer paid infrastructure charges are over-passed to home buyers and are a significant contributor to reduced housing affordability.

Prospective decrease in progesterone concentrations in female lightweight rowers during the competition season compared with the off-season: A controlled study examining weight loss and intensive exercise

The purpose of this study was to monitor ovarian hormone function response to intense exercise and body weight changes in female athletes. Ovarian hormone function was evaluated in 12 female lightweight rowers and 10 age-height-weight matched sedentary controls. Ovarian hormone function was assessed during consecutive competition season and off season, by measurement of peak and average alternative day overnight urinary oestrone glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG) excretion. Competition season was associated with a 5.8 kg (9.3%) body weight loss in the lightweight rowers. Significantly lower competition season peak and average urinary excretion of PdG were found in the lightweight rowers compared with the controls. Lower competition season peak and average urinary excretion of E1G were also found in the lightweight rowers compared with the controls, but the difference did not reach significance. The number of rowing training hours was a significant determinant of peak PdG excretion in the rowers (R2 = 0.40; p<0.02). The seasonal suppression of PdG excretion was associated with degree of weight loss (R2 = 0.46; p<0.01). The competition related decrease in E1G and PdG excretion for the lightweight rowers was predominantly restored during the off season when exercise intensity and duration were decreased and body weight increased. These results showed a significant (p<0.05) reduction in progesterone metabolite excretion and a non-significant decrease in oestrone metabolite excretion associated with intensive competition season training loads and body weight reduction in female lightweight rowers.