102 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off


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We examine cost and nutrient use efficiency of farms and determine the cost to move farms to nutrient-efficient operation using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with a dataset of 96 rice farms in Gangwon province of South Korea from 2003 to 2007. Our findings show that improvements in technical efficiency would result in both lower production costs and better environmental performance. It is, however, not costless for farms to move from their current operation to the environmentally efficient operation. On average, this movement would increase production costs by 119% but benefit the water system through an approximately 69% reduction in eutrofying power (EP). The average estimated cost of each EP kg of aggregate nutrient reduction is approximately one thousand two hundred won. For technically efficient farms, there is a trade-off between cost and environmental efficiency. We also find that the environmental performance of farms varies across farms and regions. We suggest that agri-environmental policies should be (re)designed to improve both cost and environmental performance of rice farms.

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The literature concerning firm boundaries has focussed extensively on the rationale for different boundary choices and the economic efficiencies that such choices can make. There is also an acknowledged position that a firm’s boundary choices may impact the ability of a firm to maintain and even build new capabilities, though such choices may not be optimal from an economic efficiency perspective. It is in this context that we seek to investigate how firms make this potential trade-off in respect of their boundary choices and how these choices are implemented across a wide range of activities. Using qualitative data from three public sector construction oriented organizations, we observe that neither pure make nor buy decisions assisted significantly in capability building. Dual modes – where firms make and buy the same product or service simultaneously – provided firms with some opportunities to manage this paradox, but the most successful decisions seemed to occur in respect of using intermediate governance modes such as alliances. We also observed that the boundary choice was just one dimension of the capability building process and firms pursuing the same boundary choice decisions often had quite divergent outcomes on the basis of their boundary management and the ability of knowledge to move across firm boundaries.

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The detection and correction of defects remains among the most time consuming and expensive aspects of software development. Extensive automated testing and code inspections may mitigate their effect, but some code fragments are necessarily more likely to be faulty than others, and automated identification of fault prone modules helps to focus testing and inspections, thus limiting wasted effort and potentially improving detection rates. However, software metrics data is often extremely noisy, with enormous imbalances in the size of the positive and negative classes. In this work, we present a new approach to predictive modelling of fault proneness in software modules, introducing a new feature representation to overcome some of these issues. This rank sum representation offers improved or at worst comparable performance to earlier approaches for standard data sets, and readily allows the user to choose an appropriate trade-off between precision and recall to optimise inspection effort to suit different testing environments. The method is evaluated using the NASA Metrics Data Program (MDP) data sets, and performance is compared with existing studies based on the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Naïve Bayes (NB) Classifiers, and with our own comprehensive evaluation of these methods.

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Fusion techniques can be used in biometrics to achieve higher accuracy. When biometric systems are in operation and the threat level changes, controlling the trade-off between detection error rates can reduce the impact of an attack. In a fused system, varying a single threshold does not allow this to be achieved, but systematic adjustment of a set of parameters does. In this paper, fused decisions from a multi-part, multi-sample sequential architecture are investigated for that purpose in an iris recognition system. A specific implementation of the multi-part architecture is proposed and the effect of the number of parts and samples in the resultant detection error rate is analysed. The effectiveness of the proposed architecture is then evaluated under two specific cases of obfuscation attack: miosis and mydriasis. Results show that robustness to such obfuscation attacks is achieved, since lower error rates than in the case of the non-fused base system are obtained.

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This thesis opens up the design space for awareness research in CSCW and HCI. By challenging the prevalent understanding of roles in awareness processes and exploring different mechanisms for actively engaging users in the awareness process, this thesis provides a better understanding of the complexity of these processes and suggests practical solutions for designing and implementing systems that support active awareness. Mutual awareness, a prominent research topic in the fields of Computer-Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW) and Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) refers to a fundamental aspect of a person’s work: their ability to gain a better understanding of a situation by perceiving and interpreting their co-workers actions. Technologically-mediated awareness, used to support co-workers across distributed settings, distinguishes between the roles of the actor, whose actions are often limited to being the target of an automated data gathering processes, and the receiver, who wants to be made aware of the actors’ actions. This receiver-centric view of awareness, focusing on helping receivers to deal with complex sets of awareness information, stands in stark contrast to our understanding of awareness as social process involving complex interactions between both actors and receivers. It fails to take into account an actors’ intimate understanding of their own activities and the contribution that this subjective understanding could make in providing richer awareness information. In this thesis I challenge the prevalent receiver-centric notion of awareness, and explore the conceptual foundations, design, implementation and evaluation of an alternative active awareness approach by making the following five contributions. Firstly, I identify the limitations of existing awareness research and solicit further evidence to support the notion of active awareness. I analyse ethnographic workplace studies that demonstrate how actors engage in an intricate interplay involving the monitoring of their co-workers progress and displaying aspects of their activities that may be of relevance to others. The examination of a large body of awareness research reveals that while disclosing information is a common practice in face-to-face collaborative settings it has been neglected in implementations of technically mediated awareness. Based on these considerations, I introduce the notion of intentional disclosure to describe the action of users actively and deliberately contributing awareness information. I consider challenges and potential solutions for the design of active awareness. I compare a range of systems, each allowing users to share information about their activities at various levels of detail. I discuss one of the main challenges to active awareness: that disclosing information about activities requires some degree of effort. I discuss various representations of effort in collaborative work. These considerations reveal that there is a trade-off between the richness of awareness information and the effort required to provide this information. I propose a framework for active awareness, aimed to help designers to understand the scope and limitations of different types of intentional disclosure. I draw on the identified richness/effort trade-off to develop two types of intentional disclosure, both of which aim to facilitate the disclosure of information while reducing the effort required to do so. For both of these approaches, direct and indirect disclosure, I delineate how they differ from related approaches and define a set of design criteria that is intended to guide their implementation. I demonstrate how the framework of active awareness can be practically applied by building two proof-of-concept prototypes that implement direct and indirect disclosure respectively. AnyBiff, implementing direct disclosure, allows users to create, share and use shared representations of activities in order to express their current actions and intentions. SphereX, implementing indirect disclosure, represents shared areas of interests or working context, and links sets of activities to these representations. Lastly, I present the results of the qualitative evaluation of the two prototypes and analyse the results with regard to the extent to which they implemented their respective disclosure mechanisms and supported active awareness. Both systems were deployed and tested in real world environments. The results for AnyBiff showed that users developed a wide range of activity representations, some unanticipated, and actively used the system to disclose information. The results further highlighted a number of design considerations relating to the relationship between awareness and communication, and the role of ambiguity. The evaluation of SphereX validated the feasibility of the indirect disclosure approach. However, the study highlighted the challenges of implementing cross-application awareness support and translating the concept to users. The study resulted in design recommendations aimed to improve the implementation of future systems.

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The design activities of the development of the SCRAMSPACE I scramjet-powered free-flight experiment are described in this paper. The objectives of this flight are first described together with the definition of the primary, secondary and tertiary experiments. The Scramjet configuration studied is first discussed together with the rocket motor system selected for this flight. The different flight sequences are then explained, highlighting the SCRAMSPACE I free-flyer separation and re-orientation procedures. A design trade-off study is then described considering vehicle stability, packaging, thermo-structural analysis and trajectory, discussing the alignment of the predicted performance with the mission scientific requirements. The global system architecture and instrumentation of the vehicle are then explained. The conclusions of this design phase are that a vehicle design has been produced which is able to meet the mission scientific goals and the procurement & construction of the vehicle are ongoing.

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This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Dr Martin Bliemel and his research team consider a trade-off entrepreneurs face when managing their network: should they form stronger relationships to acquire key resources, or should they reach out to more potential partners to access new resources?

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Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

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Cancer is a disease of signal transduction in which the dysregulation of the network of intracellular and extracellular signaling cascades is sufficient to thwart the cells finely-tuned biochemical control mechanisms. A keen interest in the mathematical modeling of cell signaling networks and the regulation of signal transduction has emerged in recent years, and has produced a glimmer of insight into the sophisticated feedback control and network regulation operating within cells. In this review, we present an overview of published theoretical studies on the control aspects of signal transduction, emphasizing the role and importance of mechanisms such as ‘ultrasensitivity’ and feedback loops. We emphasize that these exquisite and often subtle control strategies represent the key to orchestrating ‘simple’ signaling behaviors within the complex intracellular network, while regulating the trade-off between sensitivity and robustness to internal and external perturbations. Through a consideration of these apparent paradoxes, we explore how the basic homeostasis of the intracellular signaling network, in the face of carcinogenesis, can lead to neoplastic progression rather than cell death. A simple mathematical model is presented, furnishing a vivid illustration of how ‘control-oriented’ models of the deranged signaling networks in cancer cells may enucleate improved treatment strategies, including patient-tailored combination therapies, with the potential for reduced toxicity and more robust and potent antitumor activity.

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The Common Scrambling Algorithm Stream Cipher (CSASC) is a shift register based stream cipher designed to encrypt digital video broadcast. CSA-SC produces a pseudo-random binary sequence that is used to mask the contents of the transmission. In this paper, we analyse the initialisation process of the CSA-SC keystream generator and demonstrate weaknesses which lead to state convergence, slid pairs and shifted keystreams. As a result, the cipher may be vulnerable to distinguishing attacks, time-memory-data trade-off attacks or slide attacks.

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In the coming decades, the mining industry faces the dual challenge of lowering both its water and energy use. This presents a difficulty since technological advances that decrease the use of one can increase the use of the other. Historically, energy and water use have been modelled independently, making it difficult to evaluate the true costs and benefits from water and energy improvements. This paper presents a hierarchical systems model that is able to represent interconnected water and energy use at a whole of site scale. In order to explore the links between water and energy four technologies advancements have been modelled: use of dust suppression additives, the adoption of thickened tailings, the transition to dry processing and the incorporation of a treatment plant. The results show a synergy between decreased water and energy use for dust suppression additives, but a trade-off for the others.

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Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.

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The work presented in this report is aimed to implement a cost-effective offline mission path planner for aerial inspection tasks of large linear infrastructures. Like most real-world optimisation problems, mission path planning involves a number of objectives which ideally should be minimised simultaneously. Understandably, the objectives of a practical optimisation problem are conflicting each other and the minimisation of one of them necessarily implies the impossibility to minimise the other ones. This leads to the need to find a set of optimal solutions for the problem; once such a set of available options is produced, the mission planning problem is reduced to a decision making problem for the mission specialists, who will choose the solution which best fit the requirements of the mission. The goal of this work is then to develop a Multi-Objective optimisation tool able to provide the mission specialists a set of optimal solutions for the inspection task amongst which the final trajectory will be chosen, given the environment data, the mission requirements and the definition of the objectives to minimise. All the possible optimal solutions of a Multi-Objective optimisation problem are said to form the Pareto-optimal front of the problem. For any of the Pareto-optimal solutions, it is impossible to improve one objective without worsening at least another one. Amongst a set of Pareto-optimal solutions, no solution is absolutely better than another and the final choice must be a trade-off of the objectives of the problem. Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are recognised to be a convenient method for exploring the Pareto-optimal front of Multi-Objective optimization problems. Their efficiency is due to their parallelism architecture which allows to find several optimal solutions at each time

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Oncogene-induced senescence (OIS) is a potent tumor-suppressive mechanism that is thought to come at the cost of aging. The Forkhead box O (FOXO) transcription factors are regulators of life span and tumor suppression. However, whether and how FOXOs function in OIS have been unclear. Here, we show a role for FOXO4 in mediating senescence by the human BRAFV600E oncogene, which arises commonly in melanoma. BRAFV600E signaling through mitogen-activated protein kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase kinase resulted in increased reactive oxygen species levels and c-Jun NH 2 terminal kinase-mediated activation of FOXO4 via its phosphorylation on Thr223, Ser226, Thr447, and Thr451. BRAFV600E-induced FOXO4 phosphorylation resulted in p21cip1-mediated cell senescence independent of p16 ink4a or p27kip1. Importantly, melanocyte-specific activation of BRAFV600E in vivo resulted in the formation of skin nevi expressing Thr223/Ser226-phosphorylated FOXO4 and elevated p21cip1. Together, these findings support a model in which FOXOs mediate a trade-off between cancer and aging.

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Introduction Australia is contributing to the global problem of antimicrobial resistance with one of the highest rates of antibiotic use amongst OECD countries. Data from the Australian primary healthcare sector suggests unnecessary antibiotics were prescribed for conditions that will resolve without it. If left unchecked, this will result in more resistant micro-organisms, against which antibiotics will be useless. There is a lack of understanding about what is influencing decisions to use antibiotics – what factors influences general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe antibiotics, consumers to seek antibiotics, and pharmacists to fill old antibiotic prescriptions? It is also not clear how these individuals trade-off between the possible benefits that antibiotics may provide in the immediate/short term, against the longer term societal risk of antimicrobial resistance. Method This project will investigate (a) what factors drive decisions to use antibiotics for GPs, pharmacists and consumers, and (b) how these individuals discount the future. Factors will be gleaned from published literature and from a qualitative phase using semi-structured interviews, to inform the development of Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). Three DCEs will be constructed – one for each group of interest – to allow investigation of which factors are more important in influencing (a) GPs to prescribe antibiotics, (b) consumers to seek antibiotics, and (c) pharmacists to fill legally valid but old or repeat prescriptions of antibiotics. Regression analysis will be conducted to understand the relative importance of these factors. A Time Trade Off exercise will be developed to investigate how these individuals discount the future, and whether GPs and pharmacists display the same extent of discounting the future, as consumers. Expected Results Findings from the DCEs will provide an insight into which factors are more important in driving decision making in antibiotic use for GPs, pharmacists and consumers. Findings from the Time Trade Off exercise will show what individuals are willing to trade for preserving the miracle of antibiotics. Conclusion The emergence of antibiotic resistance is inevitable. This research will expand on what is currently known about influencing desired behaviour change in antibiotic use, in the fight against antibiotic resistance. Real World Implications Research findings will contribute to existing national programs to bring about a reduction in inappropriate use of antibiotic in Australia. Specifically, influencing (1) how key messages and public health campaigns are crafted to increase health literacy, and (2) clinical education and empowerment of GPs and pharmacists to play a more responsive role as stewards of antibiotic use in the community.