523 resultados para 080105 Expert Systems
Resumo:
Patient safety has become a significant and pressing policy issue. Around the world, governments, the health care sector and the public are increasingly cognizant of the need to improve the safety of care delivered by their health systems. Pressure for change has been created by highly publicized incidents in a number of countries involving unsafe acts that were significant both in scale and consequence and a number of empirical studies that revealed the high rates of unsafe acts and their consequences. The costs of unsafe health care – both personal and fiscal – to individuals, their families and their communities and to the state are massive. In this research project we explored one particular avenue for change – that is, the use of legal instruments by governments to improve patient safety. We did this through a comparative review of the use of legal instruments or frameworks in other countries (specifically Australia, Denmark, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) as well as two non-health care related sectors in Canada (transportation and occupational health and safety). We began this research by reviewing the legal instruments and undertaking extensive literature reviews. Further information was gathered through in-person interviews with policy-makers and academics in the countries studied, and from policy-makers and academics expert in the health, occupational health and safety, and transportation sectors in Canada. Once descriptions of the various countries and sectors were drafted, we held small-group meetings with local experts on particular aspects of patient safety. We then hosted a national consultation meeting. We subsequently drafted this final report and the appendices, which fully describe the results of the background research. Finally, we prepared a summary version of the report as well as posters and papers to be published and delivered at conferences and meetings with relevant groups.
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Objectives: Experiential knowledge of elite athletes and coaches was investigated to reveal insights on expertise acquisition in cricket fast bowling. Design: Twenty-one past or present elite cricket fast bowlers and coaches of national or international level were interviewed using an in-depth, open-ended, semi-structured approach. Methods: Participants were asked about specific factors which they believed were markers of fast bowling expertise potential. Of specific interest was the relative importance of each potential component of fast bowling expertise and how components interacted or developed over time. Results: The importance of intrinsic motivation early in development was highlighted, along with physical, psychological and technical attributes. Results supported a multiplicative and interactive complex systems model of talent development in fast bowling, in which component weightings were varied due to individual differences in potential experts. Dropout rates in potential experts were attributed to misconceived current talent identification programmes and coaching practices, early maturation and physical attributes, injuries and lack of key psychological attributes and skills. Conclusions: Data are consistent with a dynamical systems model of expertise acquisition in fast bowling, with numerous trajectories available for talent development. Further work is needed to relate experiential and theoretical knowledge on expertise in other sports.
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Study Approach The results presented in this report are part of a larger global study on the major issues in BPM. Only one part of the larger study is reported here, viz. interviews with BPM experts. Interviews of BPM tool vendors together with focus group studies involving user organizations were conducted in parallel and set the groundwork for the identification of BPM issues on a global scale. Through this multi-method approach, we identify four distinct sets of outcomes. First, as is the focus of this report, we identify the BPM issues as perceived by BPM experts. Second, the research design allows us to gain insight into the opinions of organizations deploying BPM solutions. Third, an understanding of organizations’ misconceptions of BPM technologies, as confronted by BPM tool vendors, is obtained. Last, we seek to gain an understanding of BPM issues on a global scale, together with knowledge of matters of concern. This final outcome is aimed to produce an industry-driven research agenda that will inform practitioners and, in particular, the research community worldwide on issues and challenges that are prevalent or emerging in BPM and related areas...
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"The focus of this chapter is on context-resonant systems perspectives in career theory and their implications for practice in diverse cultural and contextual settings. For over two decades, the potential of systems theory to offer a context-resonant approach to career development has been acknowledged. Career development theory and practice, however, have been dominated for most of their history by more narrowly defined theories informed by a trait-and-factor tradition of matching the characteristics of individuals to occupations. In contrast, systems theory challenges this parts-in-isolation approach and offers a response that can accommodate the complexity of both the lives of individuals and the world of the 21st century by taking a more holistic approach that considers individuals in context. These differences in theory and practice may be attributed to the underlying philosophies that inform them. For example, the philosophy informing the trait-and-factor theoretical position, logical positivism, places value on: studying individuals in isolation from their environments; content over process; facts over feelings; objectivity over subjectivity; and views individual behavior as observable, measurable, and linear. In practice, this theory base manifests in expert-driven practices founded on the assessment of personal traits such as interests, personality, values, or beliefs which may be matched to particular occupations. The philosophy informing more recent theoretical positions, constructivism, places value on: studying individuals in their contexts; making meaning of experience through the use of subjective narrative accounts; and a belief in the capacity of individuals known as agency. In practice, this theory base manifests in practices founded on collaborative relationships with clients, narrative approaches, and a reduced emphasis on expert-driven linear processes. Thus, the tenets of constructivism which inform the systems perspectives in career theory are context-resonant. Systems theory stresses holism where the interconnectedness of all elements of a system is considered. Systems may be open or closed. Closed systems have no relationship with their external environment whereas open systems interact with their external environment and are open to external influence which is necessary for regeneration. Congruent with general systems theory, the systems perspectives emerging within career theory are based on open systems. Such systems are complex and dynamic and comprise many elements and subsystems which recursively interact with each other as well as with influences from the surrounding environment. As elements of a system should not be considered in isolation, a systems approach is holistic. Patterns of behavior are found in the relationships between the elements of dynamic systems. Because of the multiplicity of relationships within and between elements of subsystems, the possibility of linear causal explanations is reduced. Story is the mechanism through which the relationships and patterns within systems are recounted by individuals. Thus the career guidance practices emanating from theories informed by systems perspectives are inherently narrative in orientation. Narrative career counseling encourages career development to be understood from the subjective perspective of clients. The application of systemic thinking in practice takes greater account of context. In so doing, practices informed by systems theory may facilitate relevance to a diverse client group in diverse settings. In a world that has become increasingly global and diverse it seems that context-resonant systems perspectives in career theory are essential to ensure the future of career development. Translating context-resonant systems perspectives into practice offers important possibilities for methods and approaches that are respectful of diversity."--publisher website
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The Australian Government has been concerned “to find ways of making patent enforcement less of an issue” and to make it “cheaper, simpler and quicker to get fair and appropriate resolution for any dispute”. Major problems relating to patent enforcement in Australia have been identified as: the cost of legal proceedings; the lack of patent owners’ financial capacity to fund enforcement proceedings; delay; and uncertainty as to the outcome and lack of knowledge about the processes of enforcement. This paper considers some of the problems associated with patent enforcement in Australia and proposes an approach to patent litigation which is directed at alleviating some of the difficulties which have been identified. Specifically, it proposes a strategy designed to identify the parties’ risks at an early stage of patent litigation proceeding and facilitate an early resolution of the dispute.
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Expert searchers engage with information in a variety of professional settings, as information brokers, reference librarians, information architects and faculty who teach advanced searching. As my recent research shows, the expert searcher’s information experience is defined by profound discernment of critical concepts about information, and a fluid ability to apply this knowledge to their engagement with the information environment. The information experience of the expert searcher means active and intentional participation with the processes and players that created that information environment. Expert searchers become an integral and seamless part of their information environment and also play a role in facilitating the information experiences of others. In this chapter, after discussing my understanding of the concept of information experience, I outline how I used threshold concept theory to explore the information experience of expert searchers. Through the findings, I identify four threshold concepts in the acquisition of search expertise that provide new perspectives on the information experience of the expert searcher. These new perspectives have implications for search engine design and how advanced search skills are taught. Finally, I consider how the fresh insights about the expert searcher’s experiences contribute to wider understanding about information experience.
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Conservation planning and management programs typically assume relatively homogeneous ecological landscapes. Such “ecoregions” serve multiple purposes: they support assessments of competing environmental values, reveal priorities for allocating scarce resources, and guide effective on-ground actions such as the acquisition of a protected area and habitat restoration. Ecoregions have evolved from a history of organism–environment interactions, and are delineated at the scale or level of detail required to support planning. Depending on the delineation method, scale, or purpose, they have been described as provinces, zones, systems, land units, classes, facets, domains, subregions, and ecological, biological, biogeographical, or environmental regions. In each case, they are essential to the development of conservation strategies and are embedded in government policies at multiple scales.
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Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.
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The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.
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Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.
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A planar polynomial differential system has a finite number of limit cycles. However, finding the upper bound of the number of limit cycles is an open problem for the general nonlinear dynamical systems. In this paper, we investigated a class of Liénard systems of the form x'=y, y'=f(x)+y g(x) with deg f=5 and deg g=4. We proved that the related elliptic integrals of the Liénard systems have at most three zeros including multiple zeros, which implies that the number of limit cycles bifurcated from the periodic orbits of the unperturbed system is less than or equal to 3.