Towards Bayesian experimental design for nonlinear models that require a large number of sampling times

The use of Bayesian methodologies for solving optimal experimental design problems has increased. Many of these methods have been found to be computationally intensive for design problems that require a large number of design points. A simulation-based approach that can be used to solve optimal design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points for a small number of design variables is presented. The approach involves the use of lower dimensional parameterisations that consist of a few design variables, which generate multiple design points. Using this approach, one simply has to search over a few design variables, rather than searching over a large number of optimal design points, thus providing substantial computational savings. The methodologies are demonstrated on four applications, including the selection of sampling times for pharmacokinetic and heat transfer studies, and involve nonlinear models. Several Bayesian design criteria are also compared and contrasted, as well as several different lower dimensional parameterisation schemes for generating the many design points.

Reconceptualising mega project success in Australian Defence : recognising the importance of value co-creation

Recent literature in project management has urged a re-conceptualisation of projects as a value co-creation process. Contrary to the traditional output-focused project methodology, the value creation perspective argues for the importance of creating new knowledge, processes, and systems for suppliers and customers. Stakeholder involvement is important in this new perspective, as the balancing of competing needs of stakeholders in mega projects becomes a major challenge in managing the value co-creation process. In this study we present interview data from three Australian defence mega projects to demonstrate that senior executives have a more complex understanding of project success than traditional iron triangle measures. In these mega defence projects, customers and other stakeholders actively engage in the value creation process, and over time both content and process value are created to increase defence and national capability. Value created and captured during and post projects are the key to true success.

Consumer Internet purchasing behaviour in Chile

Despite the potential for e-commerce growth in Latin America, studies investigating factors that influence consumers’ Internet purchasing behavior are very limited. This research addresses this limitation with a consumer centric study in Chile using the Theory of Reasoned Action. The study examines Chilean consumers’ beliefs, perceptions of risk, and subjective norms about continued purchasing on the Internet. Findings show that consumers’ attitude towards purchasing on the Internet is an influential factor on intentions to continue Internet purchasing. Additionally, compatibility and result demonstrability are influential factors on attitudes towards this behavior. The study contributes to the important area of technology post adoption behavior.

The importance of mosquito behavioural adaptations to malaria control in Africa

Over the past decade the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), in combination with improved drug therapies, indoor residual spraying (IRS) and better health infrastructure, has helped reduce malaria in many African countries for the first time in a generation. However, insecticide resistance in the vector is an evolving threat to these gains. We review emerging and historical data on behavioural resistance in response to LLINs and IRS. Overall the current literature suggests behavioural and species changes may be emerging, but the data are sparse and, at times unconvincing. However, preliminary modelling has demonstrated that behavioural resistance could have significant impacts on the effectiveness of malaria control. We propose seven recommendations to improve understanding of resistance in malaria vectors. Determining the public health impact of physiological and behavioural insecticide resistance is an urgent priority if we are to maintain the significant gains made in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality.

A dynamic wheel-rail impact analysis of railway track under wheel flat by Finite Element Analysis

Wheel–rail interaction is one of the most important research topics in railway engineering. It involves track impact response, track vibration and track safety. Track structure failures caused by wheel–rail impact forces can lead to significant economic loss for track owners through damage to rails and to the sleepers beneath. Wheel–rail impact forces occur because of imperfections in the wheels or rails such as wheel flats, irregular wheel profiles, rail corrugations and differences in the heights of rails connected at a welded joint. A wheel flat can cause a large dynamic impact force as well as a forced vibration with a high frequency, which can cause damage to the track structure. In the present work, a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model for the impact analysis induced by the wheel flat is developed by use of the finite element analysis (FEA) software package ANSYS and validated by another validated simulation. The effect of wheel flats on impact forces is thoroughly investigated. It is found that the presence of a wheel flat will significantly increase the dynamic impact force on both rail and sleeper. The impact force will monotonically increase with the size of wheel flats. The relationships between the impact force and the wheel flat size are explored from this finite element analysis and they are important for track engineers to improve their understanding of the design and maintenance of the track system.

When does change begin following screening and brief intervention among depressed problem drinkers?

Brief interventions are effective for problem drinking and reductions are known to occur in association with screening and assessment. The present study sought to assess, among participants (N=202) in a clinical trial, how much change occurred between baseline assessment and a one-session brief intervention (S1), and the predictors of early change. The primary focus was on changes in the Beck Depression Inventory Fast Screen scores and alcohol consumption (standard drinks per week) prior to random allocation to nine further sessions addressing either depression, alcohol, or both problems. There were large and clinically significant reductions between baseline and S1, with the strongest predictors being baseline scores in the relevant domain and change in the other domain. Client engagement was also predictive of early depression changes. Monitoring progress in both domains from first contact, and provision of empathic care, followed by brief intervention appear to be useful for this high prevalence comorbidity.

Craving : a research update [Editorial to a special issue]

Craving has long been associated with addictive disorders. It has received much attention over the last two decades, partly through the advent of pharmacotherapies that attempt to address it (Jonson, 2008; Yahyavi-Firouz-Abadi & See, 2009). More recently, craving for substances has attained increased prominence, with the inclusion of “Craving or a strong desire or urge” in the draft of DSM-5 (APA, 2012). Studies generally support craving as occurring on a single diagnostic dimension alongside existing dependence criteria (Hasin, et al., 2012; Keyes, et al., 2011). Some (e.g. Keyes, et al., 2011) demonstrate that the addition of craving to DSM-IV alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence criteria contributes novel variance in predicting severity, and improves discrimination above that offered by existing DSM-IV criteria. Within the current volume, the paper by Agrawal et al. confirms that craving strongly loads on a single dimension that also incorporates DSM-IV alcohol dependence criteria. Craving was a relatively severe symptom: It was least often endorsed, and did not exceed 50% endorsement until 6 of the remaining 7 criteria were present...

Self-proxy agreement and weekly school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society

Proxy reports from parents and self-reported data from pupils have often been used interchangeably to identify factors influencing school travel behaviour. However, few studies have examined the validity of proxy reports as an alternative to self-reported data. In addition, despite research that has been conducted in a different context, little is known to date about the impact of different factors on school travel behaviour in a sectarian divided society. This research examines these issues using 1624 questionnaires collected from four independent samples (e.g. primary pupils, parent of primary pupils, secondary pupils, and parent of secondary pupils) across Northern Ireland. An independent sample t test was conducted to identify the differences in data reporting between pupils and parents for different age groups using the reported number of trips for different modes as dependent variables. Multivariate multiple regression analyses were conducted to then identify the impacts of different factors (e.g. gender, rural–urban context, multiple deprivations, and school management type, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density) on mode choice behaviour in this context. Results show that proxy report is a valid alternative to self-reported data, but only for primary pupils. Land use diversity and rural–urban context were found to be the most important factors in influencing mode choice behaviour.

An integrated educational model for continuing nurse education

Aim This paper reports on the development and evaluation of an integrated clinical learning model to inform ongoing education for surgical nurses. The research aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of implementing a Respiratory Skills Update (ReSKU) education program, in the context of organisational utility, on improving surgical nurses' practice in the area of respiratory assessment. Background Continuous development and integration of technological innovations and research in the healthcare environment mandate the need for continuing education for nurses. Despite an increased worldwide emphasis on this, there is scant empirical evidence of program effectiveness. Methods A quasi experimental pre test, post test non–equivalent control group design evaluated the impact of the ReSKU program on surgical nurses' clinical practice. The 2008 study was conducted in a 400 bed regional referral public hospital and was consistent with contemporary educational approaches using multi-modal, interactive teaching strategies. Findings The study demonstrated statistically significant differences between groups regarding reported use of respiratory skills, three months after ReSKU program attendance. Between group data analysis indicated that the intervention group's reported beliefs and attitudes pertaining to subscale descriptors showed statistically significant differences in three of the six subscales. Conclusion The construct of critical thinking in the clinical context, combined with clinical reasoning and purposeful reflection, was a powerful educational strategy to enhance competency and capability in clinicians.

Upper-body morbidity after breast cancer : incidence and evidence for evaluation, prevention, and management within a prospective surveillance model of care

The purpose of this paper is to review the incidence of upper-body morbidity (arm and breast symptoms, impairments, and lymphedema), methods for diagnosis, and prevention and treatment strategies. It was also the purpose to highlight the evidence base for integration of prospective surveillance for upper-body morbidity within standard clinical care of women with breast cancer. Between 10% and 64% of women report upper-body symptoms between 6 months and 3 years after breast cancer, and approximately 20% develop lymphedema. Symptoms remain common into longer-term survivorship, and although lymphedema may be transient for some, those who present with mild lymphedema are at increased risk of developing moderate to severe lymphedema. The etiology of morbidity seems to be multifactorial, with the most consistent risk factors being those associated with extent of treatment. However, known risk factors cannot reliably distinguish between those who will and will not develop upper-body morbidity. Upper-body morbidity may be treatable with physical therapy. There is also evidence in support of integrating regular surveillance for upper-body morbidity into the routine care provided to women with breast cancer, with early diagnosis potentially contributing to more effective management and prevention of progression of these conditions.

Stability and convergence of a finite volume method for the space fractional advection-dispersion equation

We consider the space fractional advection–dispersion equation, which is obtained from the classical advection–diffusion equation by replacing the spatial derivatives with a generalised derivative of fractional order. We derive a finite volume method that utilises fractionally-shifted Grünwald formulae for the discretisation of the fractional derivative, to numerically solve the equation on a finite domain with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. We prove that the method is stable and convergent when coupled with an implicit timestepping strategy. Results of numerical experiments are presented that support the theoretical analysis.

Evaluation of Eph receptor and ephrin expression within the human cornea and limbus

Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their ligands, the ephrins, regulate the development and maintenance of multiple organs but little is known about their potential role within the cornea. The purpose of this study was to perform a thorough investigation of Eph/ephrin expression within the human cornea including the limbal stem cell niche. Initially, immunohistochemistry was performed on human donor eyes to determine the spatial distribution of Eph receptors and ephrins in the cornea and limbus. Patterns of Eph/ephrin gene expression in (1) immortalised human corneal endothelial (B4G12) or corneal epithelial (HCE-T) cell lines, and (2) primary cultures of epithelial or stromal cells established from the corneal limbus of cadaveric eye tissue were then assessed by reverse transcription (RT) PCR. Limbal epithelial or stromal cells from primary cultures were also assessed for evidence of Eph/ephrin-reactivity by immunofluorescence. Immunoreactivity for ephrinA1 and EphB4 was detected in the corneal endothelium of donor eyes. EphB4 was also consistently detected in the limbal and corneal epithelium and in cells located in the stroma of the peripheral cornea. Expression of multiple Eph/ephrin genes was detected in immortalised corneal epithelial and endothelial cell lines. Evidence of Eph/ephrin gene expression was also demonstrated in primary cultures of human limbal stromal (EphB4, B6; ephrinA5) and epithelial cells (EphA1, A2; ephrinA5, B2) using both RT-PCR and immunofluorescence. The expression of Eph receptors and ephrins within the human cornea and limbus is much wider than previously appreciated and suggests multiple potential roles for these molecules in the maintenance of normal corneal architecture.

RcppArmadillo : accelerating R with high-performance C++ linear algebra

The R statistical environment and language has demonstrated particular strengths for interactive development of statistical algorithms, as well as data modelling and visualisation. Its current implementation has an interpreter at its core which may result in a performance penalty in comparison to directly executing user algorithms in the native machine code of the host CPU. In contrast, the C++ language has no built-in visualisation capabilities, handling of linear algebra or even basic statistical algorithms; however, user programs are converted to high-performance machine code, ahead of execution. A new method avoids possible speed penalties in R by using the Rcpp extension package in conjunction with the Armadillo C++ matrix library. In addition to the inherent performance advantages of compiled code, Armadillo provides an easy-to-use template-based meta-programming framework, allowing the automatic pooling of several linear algebra operations into one, which in turn can lead to further speedups. With the aid of Rcpp and Armadillo, conversion of linear algebra centered algorithms from R to C++ becomes straightforward. The algorithms retains the overall structure as well as readability, all while maintaining a bidirectional link with the host R environment. Empirical timing comparisons of R and C++ implementations of a Kalman filtering algorithm indicate a speedup of several orders of magnitude.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for a re-planning CT during radiotherapy (RT) in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive RT trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent RT were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Sample size did not allow statistical analysis to detect a significant difference or exclusion of a lack of difference between the 3 groups. Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive RT study.

Nutrition care practices in hospital wards : results from the Nutrition Care Day Survey 2010.

Background & aim: This paper describes nutrition care practices in acute care hospitals across Australia and New Zealand. Methods: A survey on nutrition care practices in Australian and New Zealand hospitals was completed by Directors of dietetics departments of 56 hospitals that participated in the Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey 2010. Results: Overall 370 wards representing various specialities participated in the study. Nutrition risk screening was conducted in 64% (n=234) of the wards. Seventy nine percent(n=185) of these wards reported using the Malnutrition Screening Tool, 16% using the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (n=37), and 5% using local tools (n=12). Nutrition risk rescreening was conducted in 14% (n=53) of the wards. More than half the wards referred patients at nutrition risk to dietitians and commenced a nutrition intervention protocol. Feeding assistance was provided in 89% of the wards. “Protected” meal times were implemented in 5% of the wards. Conclusion: A large number of acute care hospital wards in Australia and New Zealand do not comply with evidence-based practice guidelines for nutritional management of malnourished patients. This study also provides recommendations for practice.