Autonomous vehicle path planning for persistence monitoring under uncertainty using Gaussian based Markov decision process

One of the main challenges facing online and offline path planners is the uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of the environmental energy because it is dynamic, changeable with time, and hard to forecast. This thesis develops an artificial intelligence for a mobile robot to learn from historical or forecasted data of environmental energy available in the area of interest which will help for a persistence monitoring under uncertainty using the developed algorithm.

ACE research vignette 041: Business Planning and the emergence of new ventures

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Christophe Garonne and Per Davidsson examine the value of business planning for business start-ups.

Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species - white-backed woodpecker - shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations. © 2013 Elsevier GmbH.

Cost-effective suppression and eradication of invasive predators

Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget-limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator-prey model based on a Lotka-Volterra system to investigate the cost-effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed-number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed-rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper-trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower-trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed-number, and lower-trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper-trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper-trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the "best" strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cost effectiveness of osseointegration

Individuals with limb amputation fitted with conventional socket-suspended prostheses often experience socket-related discomfort leading to a significant decrease in quality of life. Bone-anchored prostheses are increasingly acknowledged as viable alternative method of attachment of artificial limb. In this case, the prosthesis is attached directly to the residual skeleton through a percutaneous fixation. To date, a few osseointegration fixations are commercially available. Several devices are at different stages of development particularly in Europe and the US. [1-15] Clearly, surgical procedures are currently blooming worldwide. Indeed, Australia and Queensland, in particular, have one of the fastest growing populations. Previous studies involving either screw-type implants or press-fit fixations for bone-anchorage have focused on biomechanics aspects as well as the clinical benefits and safety of the procedure. [16-25] In principle, bone-anchored prostheses should eliminate lifetime expenses associated with sockets and, consequently, potentially alleviate the financial burden of amputation for governmental organizations. Sadly, publications focusing on cost-effectiveness are sparse. In fact, only one study published by Haggstrom et al (2012), reported that “despite significantly fewer visits for prosthetic service the annual mean costs for osseointegrated prostheses were comparable with socket-suspended prostheses”.[26] Consequently, governmental organizations such as Queensland Artificial Limb Services (QALS) are facing a number of challenges while adjusting financial assistance schemes that should be fair and equitable to their clients fitted with bone-anchored prostheses. Clearly, more scientific evidence extracted from governmental databases is needed to further consolidate the analyses of financial burden associated with both methods of attachment (i.e., conventional sockets prostheses, bone-anchored prostheses). The purposes of the presentation will be: 1. To outline methodological avenues to assess the cost-effectiveness of bone-anchored prostheses compared to conventional sockets prostheses, 2. To highlight the potential obstacles and limitations in cost-effectiveness analyses of bone-anchored prostheses, 3. To present preliminary results of a cost-comparison analysis focusing on the comparison of the costs expressed in dollars over QALS funding cycles for both methods of attachment.

Capacity determination and expansion models for rail networks

This thesis focused upon the development of improved capacity analysis and capacity planning techniques for railways. A number of innovations were made and were tested on a case study of a real national railway. These techniques can reduce the time required to perform decision making activities that planners and managers need to perform. As all railways need to be expanded to meet increasing demands, the presumption that analytical capacity models can be used to identify how best to improve an existing network at least cost, was fully investigated. Track duplication was the mechanism used to expanding a network's capacity, and two variant capacity expansion models were formulated. Another outcome of this thesis is the development and validation of bi objective models for capacity analysis. These models regulate the competition for track access and perform a trade-off analysis. An opportunity to develop more general mulch-objective approaches was identified.

Optimizing preventative maintenance strategies for linear assets

Linear assets are engineering infrastructure, such as pipelines, railway lines, and electricity cables, which span long distances and can be divided into different segments. Optimal management of such assets is critical for asset owners as they normally involve significant capital investment. Currently, Time Based Preventive Maintenance (TBPM) strategies are commonly used in industry to improve the reliability of such assets, as they are easy to implement compared with reliability or risk-based preventive maintenance strategies. Linear assets are normally of large scale and thus their preventive maintenance is costly. Their owners and maintainers are always seeking to optimize their TBPM outcomes in terms of minimizing total expected costs over a long term involving multiple maintenance cycles. These costs include repair costs, preventive maintenance costs, and production losses. A TBPM strategy defines when Preventive Maintenance (PM) starts, how frequently the PM is conducted and which segments of a linear asset are operated on in each PM action. A number of factors such as required minimal mission time, customer satisfaction, human resources, and acceptable risk levels need to be considered when planning such a strategy. However, in current practice, TBPM decisions are often made based on decision makers’ expertise or industrial historical practice, and lack a systematic analysis of the effects of these factors. To address this issue, here we investigate the characteristics of TBPM of linear assets, and develop an effective multiple criteria decision making approach for determining an optimal TBPM strategy. We develop a recursive optimization equation which makes it possible to evaluate the effect of different maintenance options for linear assets, such as the best partitioning of the asset into segments and the maintenance cost per segment.

Curiosity driven reinforcement learning for motion planning on humanoids

Most previous work on artificial curiosity (AC) and intrinsic motivation focuses on basic concepts and theory. Experimental results are generally limited to toy scenarios, such as navigation in a simulated maze, or control of a simple mechanical system with one or two degrees of freedom. To study AC in a more realistic setting, we embody a curious agent in the complex iCub humanoid robot. Our novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework consists of a state-of-the-art, low-level, reactive control layer, which controls the iCub while respecting constraints, and a high-level curious agent, which explores the iCub's state-action space through information gain maximization, learning a world model from experience, controlling the actual iCub hardware in real-time. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ever embodied, curious agent for real-time motion planning on a humanoid. We demonstrate that it can learn compact Markov models to represent large regions of the iCub's configuration space, and that the iCub explores intelligently, showing interest in its physical constraints as well as in objects it finds in its environment.

The evolving landscape of natural resource planning and governance in Australia

Australia’s governance of land and natural resources involves multiple polycentric domains of decision-making from global through to local levels. Although certainly complex, these arrangements have not necessarily translated into better decision-making or better environmental outcomes as evidenced by the growing concerns over the health and future of the Great Barrier Reef, (GBR). However within this system, arrangements for natural resource management (NRM) and reef water quality, which both use Australia’s integrated regional NRM model, have showed signs of improving decision-making and environmental outcomes in the GBR. In this paper we describe the latest evolutions in the governance and planning for natural resource use and management in Australia. We begin by reviewing the experience with first generation NRM as published in major audits and evaluations. As our primary interest is the health and future of the GBR, we then consider the impact of changes of second generation planning and governance outcomes in Queensland. We find that first generation plans, although developed under a relatively cohesive governance context, faced substantial problems in target setting, implementation, monitoring and review. Despite this, they were able to progress improvements in water quality in the Great Barrier Reef Regions. Second generation plans, currently being developed, face an even greater risk of failure due to the lack of bilateralism and cross-sectoral cooperation across the NRM governance system. The findings highlight the critical need to re-build and enhance the regional NRM model for NRM planning to have a positive impact on environmental outcomes in the GBR.

Planning and governance approaches for protecting World Heritage Areas: A comparison of the Great Barrier Reef and the Florida Everglades

The focus of this paper is on two World Heritage Areas: the Great Barrier Reef in Queensland, Australia and the Everglades in Florida. While both are World Heritage listed by the UNESCO, the Everglades is on the "World Heritage in Danger" list and the Great Barrier Reef could be on this list within the next year if present pressures continue. This paper examines the planning approaches and governance structures used in these two areas (Queensland and Florida) to manage the growth and development pressures. To make the analysis manageable, given the scale of these World Heritage areas, case studies at the local government level will be used: the Cairns Regional Council in Queensland and Monroe County in Florida. The case study analysis will involve three steps: (1) examination of the various plans at the federal, state, local levels that impact upon environmental quality in the Great Barrier Reef and Everglades; (2) assessing the degree to which these plans have been implemented; and (3) determine if (and how) the plans have improved environmental quality. In addition to the planning analysis we will also examine the governance structures (Lebel et al. 2006) within which planning operates. In any comparative analysis context is important (Hantrais 2009). Contextual differences between Queensland and Florida have previously been examined by Sipe, et al. (2007) and will be used as the starting point for this analysis. Our operating hypothesis and preliminary analysis suggests that the planning approaches and governance structures used in Florida and Queensland are considerably different, but the environmental outcomes may be similar. This is based, in part, on Vella (2004) who did a comparative analysis of environmental practices in the sugar industry in Florida and Queensland. This research re-examines this hypothesis and broadens the focus beyond the sugar industry to growth and development more broadly.

Review of Public Trustee Files - Families and generational asset transfers: Making and challenging wills in contemporary Australia

The Public Trustee file review was designed to address research questions relating to will disputes and socio-cultural and family norms, expectations and obligations that underpin challenges to wills. Findings from this review will augment the earlier review of all adjudicated succession law cases in Australia between January and December 2011. The research team obtained 139 cases for the review. Within the reviewed cases, parties generally needed some kind of formalised assistance to resolve disputes and almost a third ended up going to court. Most claims launched to contest wills were successful i.e. led to a change in distribution. The existence of poor and/or complex personal relationships between beneficiaries, disputants and/or the deceased were a feature of most cases involving will disputes, particularly where disputes were escalated to court. There are significant costs of will contestation both for the estate and the individuals involved in disputes. Previous research has identified that in addition to the direct costs is the indirect cost of extending the time for probate of the will. This review highlights that one of the most significant costs of will contestation is the damage to familial relationships that appears to both drive and be worsened by contestation. Findings of this review highlight the role of Public Trustees in providing financial management and advocacy services to protect and support vulnerable people in the community such as those with impaired capacity, as well as offering services such as will drafting and deceased estate administration.

To bid or not to bid: A framework for contractor decision making

This thesis is a framework to formalise contractors process for bidding decision making through categorising the factors effecting the decision to bid into five categories. It opens the door to introduce a strategic planning system for pre-contract and business development activities which cost the contractors up to 5% of the project cost which is considered as high risk investment and would have impact on submitted bid price and the project delivery quality.

Is group more cost effective than individual cognitive behaviour therapy? The evidence is not solid yet

This paper critically evaluates the empirical evidence of 36 studies regarding the comparative cost-effectiveness of group and individual cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) as a whole, and also for specific mental disorders (e.g. depression, anxiety, substance abuse) or populations (e.g. children). Methods of calculating costs, as well as methods of comparing treatment outcomes were appraised and criticized. Overall, the evidence that group CBT is more cost-effective than individual CBT is mixed, with group CBT appearing to be more cost effective in treating depression and children, but less cost effective in treating drugs and alcohol dependence, anxiety and social phobias. In addition, methodological weaknesses in the studies assessed are noted. There is a need to improve cost calculation methodology, as well as more solid and a greater number of empirical cost-effectiveness studies before a firm conclusion can be reached that group CBT is more cost effective then individual CBT.

Exploring the usefulness of structural-functional approaches to systematically assess the functionality of governance arrangements for natural resource management planning in two Australian case studies

This research developed and applied an evaluative framework to analyse multiple scales of decision-making for environmental management planning. It is the first exploration of the sociological theory of structural-functionalism and its usefulness to support evidence based decision-making in a planning context. The framework was applied to analyse decision-making in Queensland's Cape York Peninsula and Wet Tropics regions.

Emergency department models of care in the context of care quality and cost: A systematic review

To identify current ED models of care and their impact on care quality, care effectiveness, and cost. A systematic search of key health databases (Medline, CINAHL, Cochrane, EMbase) was conducted to identify literature on ED models of care. Additionally, a focused review of the contents of 11 international and national emergency medicine, nursing and health economic journals (published between 2010 and 2013) was undertaken with snowball identification of references of the most recent and relevant papers. Articles published between 1998 and 2013 in the English language were included for initial review by three of the authors. Studies in underdeveloped countries and not addressing the objectives of the present study were excluded. Relevant details were extracted from the retrieved literature, and analysed for relevance and impact. The literature was synthesised around the study's main themes. Models described within the literature mainly focused on addressing issues at the input, throughput or output stages of ED care delivery. Models often varied to account for site specific characteristics (e.g. onsite inpatient units) or to suit staffing profiles (e.g. extended scope physiotherapist), ED geographical location (e.g. metropolitan or rural site), and patient demographic profile (e.g. paediatrics, older persons, ethnicity). Only a few studies conducted cost-effectiveness analysis of service models. Although various models of delivering emergency healthcare exist, further research is required in order to make accurate and reliable assessments of their safety, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.