A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

The good, the bad, and the efficient: Productivity, efficiency, and technical change in the airline industry, 2004–11

This study models the joint production of desirable and undesirable output production (that is, CO2 emissions) of airlines. The Malmquist–Luenberger productivity index is employed to measure productivity growth when undesirable output production is incorporated into the production model. The results show that pollution abatement activities of airlines lowers productivity growth, which suggests that the traditional approach of measuring productivity growth, which ignores CO2 emissions, overstates ‘true’ productivity growth. The reliability of the results is also tested and verified using confidence intervals based on bootstrapping.

Appendix 8: Quantifying the effects of environmental factors on catch rates in South-East fisheries: 1986-2006

The collection of basic environmental data by industry members was successful and offers a way of overcoming the problems associated with differences in scale between the environment and fisheries datasets. A simple method of collecting environmental data was developed that was only a small time burden on skippers, yet has the potential to provide very useful information on the same scale as the catch and effort data recorded in the logbooks. The success of this trial was aided by the natural interest of fishers to learn more about the environment in which they fish. The archival temperature-depth tags chosen proved robust, reliable and easy to use. While the use of large scale environmental data may not yield significant improvements in stock assessments for most SESSF species, fine-scale data collected from selected vessels using methods developed during this project may, in the longer term, be useful for incorporation into CPUE standardisations in the future...

Indian bank efficiency and productivity changes with undesirable outputs: A disaggregated approach

The objective of this study is to examine technical efficiency and productivity growth in the Indian banking sector over the period from 2004 to 2011. We apply an innovative methodological approach introduced by Chen et al. (2011) and Barros et al. (2012), who use a weighted Russell directional distance model to measure technical inefficiency. We further modify and extend that model to measure TFP change with NPLs. We find that the inefficiency levels are significantly different among the three ownership structure of banks in India. Foreign banks have strong market position in India and they pull the production frontier in a more efficient direction. SPBs and domestic private banks show considerably higher inefficiency. We conclude that the restructuring policy applied in the late 1990s and early 2000s by the Indian government has not had a long-lasting effect.

A new approach to measure tactical voting: evidence from the British elections

Although tactical voting attracts a great deal of attention, it is very hard to measure as it requires knowledge of both individuals’ voting choices as well as their unobserved preferences. In this article, we present a simple empirical strategy to nonparametrically identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results. This approach allows us to study the magnitude and direction of strategic voting as well as to verify which information voters and parties take into account to determine marginal constituencies. We show that tactical voting played a significant role in the 2010 election, mainly for Liberal–Democratic voters supporting Labour. Moreover, our results suggest that voters seem to form their expectations based on a national swing in vote shares rather than newspaper guides published in the main media outlets or previous election outcomes. We also present some evidence that suggests that campaign spending is not driving tactical voting.

Measuring the regional availability of biomass for biofuels and the potential for microalgae

Biomass is an important energy resource for producing bioenergy and growing the global economy whilst minimising greenhouse gas emissions. Many countries, like Australia have a huge amount of biomass with the potential for bioenergy, but non-edible feedstock resources are significantly under-exploited. Hence it is essential to map the availability of these feedstocks to identify the most appropriate bioenergy solution for each region and develop supply chains for biorefineries. Using Australia as a case study,we present the spatial availability and opportunities for second and third generation feedstocks. Considerations included current land use, the presence of existing biomass industries and climatic conditions. Detailed information on the regional availability of biomass was collected from government statistics, technical reports and energy assessments as well as from academic literature. Second generation biofuels have the largest opportunity in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria (NSW, QLD and VIC) and the regions with the highest potential for microalgae are Western Australia and Northern Territory (WA, NT), based on land use opportunity cost and climate. The approach can be used in other countries with a similar climate. More research is needed to overcome key technical and economic hurdles.

Delisted stocks and momentum: Evidence from a new Australian dataset

We explore the impact of delisting on the performance of the momentum trading strategy in Australia. We employ a new dataset of hand-collected delisting returns for all Australian stocks and provide the first study outside the U.S. to jointly examine the effects of delisting and missing returns on the magnitude of momentum profits. In the sample of all stocks, we find that the profitability of momentum strategies depends crucially on the returns of delisted stocks, especiallyon bankrupt firms. In the sample of large stocks, however, the momentum effect remains strong after controlling for the effect of delisted stocks, in contrast to the U.S. evidence in which delisting returns can explain 40% of momentum profits. As these large stocks are less exposed to liquidity risks, the momentum effect in Australia is even more puzzling than in the U.S.

Use ‘4Rs’ criteria to assess papers

We propose a '4R' approach to assessing reported research, underpinned by statistical rigour (see J. T. Leek and R. D. Peng Nature 520, 612; 2015). These 4Rs denote reproduction, replication, robustness and revelation...

External influence as an indicator of scholarly importance

Although the external influence of scholars has usually been approximated by publication and citation count, the array of scholarly activities is far more extensive. Today, new technologies, in particular Internet search engines, allow more accurate measurement of scholars' influence on societal discourse. Hence, in this article, we analyse the relation between the internal and external influence of 723 top economists using the number of pages indexed by Google and Bing as a measure of external influence. We not only identify a small association between these scholars’ internal and external influence but also a correlation between internal influence, as captured by receipt of such major academic awards as the Nobel Prize and John Bates Clark Medal, and the external prominence of the top 100 researchers (JEL Code: A11, A13, Z18).

The inner quality of an article: Will time tell?

In this paper, we assess whether quality survives the test of time in academia by comparing up to 80 years of academic journal article citations from two top journals, Econometrica and the American Economic Review. The research setting under analysis is analogous to a controlled real world experiment in that it involves a homogeneous task (trying to publish in top journals) by individuals with a homogenous job profile (academics) in a specific research environment (economics and econometrics). Comparing articles published concurrently in the same outlet at the same time (same issue) indicates that symbolic capital or power due to institutional affiliation or connection does seem to boost citation success at the beginning, giving those educated at or affiliated with leading universities an initial comparative advantage. Such advantage, however, does not hold in the long run: at a later stage,the publications of other researchers become as or even more successful.

Do great minds appear in batches?

Despite much scholarly fascination with the question of whether great minds appear in cycles, together with some empirical evidence that historical cycles exist, prior studies mostly disregard the ‘‘great minds’’ hypothesis as it relates to scientists. Rather, researchers assume a linear relation based on the argument that science is allied with the development of technology. To probe this issue further, this study uses a ranking of over 5600 scientists based on number of appearances in Google Books over a period of 200 years (1800–2000). The results point to several peak periods, particularly for scientists born in the 1850–1859, 1897–1906, or 1900–1909 periods, suggesting overall cycles of around 8 years and a positive trend in distinction that lasts around 100 years. Nevertheless,a non-parametric test to determine whether randomness can be rejected indicates that nonrandomness is less apparent, although once we analyse the greatest minds overall, rejection is more likely.

The Times They Are A Changin': The Effect of Institutional Change on Cooperative Behaviour at 26,000ft over Sixty Years

In 2006, Sir Edmund Hillary lambasted the modern climbing fraternity for abandoning other climbers to a slow frozen death on Everest, claiming that in his day they would never leave someone to die. This followed the controversial death of David Sharp, passed by an estimated 40 climbers who were more interested in the summit than the life of a fellow human being. But was this stinging criticism true or just the faded recollections of a former climbing giant? This book investigates that claim through a narrative analysis, which combines the empirical analysis of Hawley and Salisbury's Himalayan Expedition Database with the anecdotal evidence provided by a plethora of newspaper articles and books. While there is evidence supporting the claim that commercialization is to blame for the breakdown of pro-social behaviour, the results cannot conclude if it is the commercial climber or the operator driving the problem and that the Sherpa are the saving grace.

Potential climate effect on Japanese rice productivity

Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy question in recent years. Agriculture is an economic activity that is most sensitive to climate change. We evaluate the dynamic effects of productivity change and individual efforts to adapt to climate change. Adaptation actions in agriculture are evaluated to determine how the climate affects production efficiency. In this paper, we use the bi-directional distance function method to measure Japanese rice production loss due to climate. We find that (1) accumulated precipitation has the greatest effect on rice production efficiency and (2) the climate effect on rice production efficiency decreases over time. Our results empirically support the benefit of the adaptation approach.

Do pollutions deter foreign direct investment in China?

The scale of environmental problems in China is clearly evident. This paper analyses foreign direct investment (FDI) in China with a finite mixture model, also known as latent class model to understand the relationship between FDI and several pollutions. This is used to regresses FDI as function covariates including pollutants. The results reveal that FDI is affected by pollutants. There are cases reducing pollution deters foreign investment in China.

Wastewater pollution abatement in China: A comparative study of fifteen industrial sectors from 1998 to 2010

This study analyzes the management of wastewater pollutants in a number of Chinese industrial sectors from 1998 to 2010. We use decomposition analysis to calculate changes in wastewater pollutant emissions that result from cleaner production processes, end-of-pipe treatment, structural changes in industry, and changes in the scale of production. We focus on one indicator of water quality and three pollutants: chemical oxygen demand (COD), petroleum, cyanide, and volatile phenols. We find that until 2002, COD emissions were mainly reduced through end-of-pipe treatments. Cleaner production processes didn’t begin contributing to COD emissions reductions until the introduction of a 2003 law that enforced their implementation. Petroleum emissions were primarily lowered through cleaner production mechanisms, which have the added benefit of reducing the input cost of intermediate petroleum. Diverse and effective pollution abatement strategies for cyanide and volatile phenols are emerging among industries in China. It will be important for the government to consider differences between industries should they choose to regulate the emissions of specific chemical substances.