Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

An evaluation of the neocognitron

We describe a sequence of experiments investigating the strengths and limitations of Fukushima's neocognitron as a handwritten digit classifier. Using the results of these experiments as a foundation, we propose and evaluate improvements to Fukushima's original network in an effort to obtain higher recognition performance. The neocognitron's performance is shown to be strongly dependent on the choice of selectivity parameters and we present two methods to adjust these variables. Performance of the network under the more effective of the two new selectivity adjustment techniques suggests that the network fails to exploit the features that distinguish different classes of input data. To avoid this shortcoming, the network's final layer cells were replaced by a nonlinear classifier (a multilayer perceptron) to create a hybrid architecture. Tests of Fukushima's original system and the novel systems proposed in this paper suggest that it may be difficult for the neocognitron to achieve the performance of existing digit classifiers due to its reliance upon the supervisor's choice of selectivity parameters and training data. These findings pertain to Fukushima's implementation of the system and should not be seen as diminishing the practical significance of the concept of hierarchical feature extraction embodied in the neocognitron. © 1997 IEEE.

A critical evaluation of written discharge advice for people with mild traumatic brain injury : what should we be looking for?

Objective: To formally evaluate the written discharge advice for people with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Methods: Eleven publications met the inclusion criteria: (1) intended for adults; (2) ≤two A4 pages; (3) published in English; (4) freely accessible; and (5) currently used (or suitable for use) in Australian hospital emergency departments or similar settings. Two independent raters evaluated the content and style of each publication against established standards. The readability of the publication, the diagnostic term(s) contained in it and a modified Patient Literature Usefulness Index (mPLUI) were also evaluated. Results: The mean content score was 19.18 ± 8.53 (maximum = 31) and the mean style score was 6.8 ± 1.34 (maximum = 8). The mean Flesch-Kincaid reading ease score was 66.42 ± 4.3. The mean mPLUI score was 65.86 ± 14.97 (maximum = 100). Higher scores on these metrics indicate more desirable properties. Over 80% of the publications used mixed diagnostic terminology. One publication scored optimally on two of the four metrics and highly on the others. Discussion: The content, style, readability and usefulness of written mTBI discharge advice was highly variable. The provision of written information to patients with mTBI is advised, but this variability in materials highlights the need for evaluation before distribution. Areas are identified to guide the improvement of written mTBI discharge advice.

Learnings, case studies and guidelines for establishing shared and collaborative service delivery in the non-government sector: Evaluation of the Multi-Tenant Service Centre (MTSC) Pilots Project

This report presents learnings, case studies, guidelines and resources for non-government organisations that are planning to implement shared or collaborative arrangements with other agencies. It summarises results from an evaluation of the implementation phase of the Multi-Tenant Service Centre (MTSC) Pilots Project, which was completed in June 2008. This evaluation shows that developing and implementing shared and collaborative arrangements is a complex process that presents many risks, challenges and barriers to success, but can have many potential benefits for non government organisations. As this report makes clear, there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach to this process. The MTSC Pilots Project was conducted by the Department of Communities (DoC), Queensland Government, as part of its Strengthening Non-Government Organisations strategy. The objective of the MTSC Pilots initiative was to co-locate separate service providers in an appropriately located centre, operating with effective and transparent management, which enabled service providers to improve client services. Three MTSC consortiums in Mackay, Caboolture and Toowoomba were selected as the pilots over a four year period from 2006 – 2010.

Automated fit quantification of tibial nail designs during the insertion using computer three-dimensional modelling

Intramedullary nailing is the standard fixation method for displaced diaphyseal fractures of the tibia. An optimal nail design should both facilitate insertion and anatomically fit the bone geometry at its final position in order to reduce the risk of stress fractures and malalignments. Due to the nonexistence of suitable commercial software, we developed a software tool for the automated fit assessment of nail designs. Furthermore, we demonstrated that an optimised nail, which fits better at the final position, is also easier to insert. Three-dimensional models of two nail designs and 20 tibiae were used. The fitting was quantified in terms of surface area, maximum distance, sum of surface areas and sum of maximum distances by which the nail was protruding into the cortex. The software was programmed to insert the nail into the bone model and to quantify the fit at defined increment levels. On average, the misfit during the insertion in terms of the four fitting parameters was smaller for the Expert Tibial Nail Proximal bend (476.3 mm2, 1.5 mm, 2029.8 mm2, 6.5 mm) than the Expert Tibial Nail (736.7 mm2, 2.2 mm, 2491.4 mm2, 8.0 mm). The differences were statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05). The software could be used by nail implant manufacturers for the purpose of implant design validation.

Is there a bone-nail specific entry point? automated fit quantification of tibial nail designs during the insertion for six different nail entry points

Intramedullary nailing is the standard fixation method for displaced diaphyseal fractures of tibia. Selection of the correct nail insertion point is important for axial alignment of bone fragments and to avoid iatrogenic fractures. However, the standard entry point (SEP) may not always optimise the bone-nail fit due to geometric variations of bones. This study aimed to investigate the optimal entry for a given bone-nail pair using the fit quantification software tool previously developed by the authors. The misfit was quantified for 20 bones with two nail designs (ETN and ETN-Proximal Bend) related to the SEP and 5 entry points which were 5 mm and 10 mm away from the SEP. The SEP was the optimal entry point for 50% of the bones used. For the remaining bones, the optimal entry point was located 5 mm away from the SEP, which improved the overall fit by 40% on average. However, entry points 10 mm away from the SEP doubled the misfit. The optimised bone-nail fit can be achieved through the SEP and within the range of a 5 mm radius, except posteriorly. The study results suggest that the optimal entry point should be selected by considering the fit during insertion and not only at the final position.

Evaluation of channel congestion in dedicated short-range communication networks

This thesis presents a novel idea for an adaptive prioritized cross-layer design (APCLD) control algorithm to achieve comprehensive channel congestion control for vehicular safety communication based on DSRC technology. An appropriate evaluation metric and two control parameters have been established. Simulation studies have evaluated the DSRC network performance in different traffic scenario and under different channel conditions. The APCLD algorithm is derived from the results of the simulation analysis.