Assessing resilience of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change

This project was a step forward in developing the scientific basis for a methodology to assess the resilience of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change. The improved measure of resilience developed in this project provides an approach to assess the ability of water supply systems to absorb the pressure due changing climate while sustaining supply, and their speed of recovery in case of failure. The approach developed can be applied to any generic water supply system.

A qualitative investigation of adolescents’ perceived mechanisms of change from a universal school-based depression prevention program

A recent meta-analysis provides evidence supporting the universal application of school-based prevention programs for adolescent depression. The mechanisms underlying such successful interventions, however, are largely unknown. We report on a qualitative analysis of 109 Grade 9 students’ beliefs about what they gained from an evidence-based depression prevention intervention, the Resourceful Adolescent Program (RAP-A). Fifty-four percent of interviewees articulated at least one specific example of program benefit. A thematic analysis of responses revealed two major themes, improved interpersonal relationships and improved self-regulation, both stronger than originally assumed. A more minor theme also emerged—more helpful cognitions. It is postulated that both improved interpersonal relationships and improved self-regulation are likely to enhance one another, and more helpful cognitions may express its contribution through enhanced self-regulation. These findings broaden our understanding of the impact of depression prevention programs, beginning to illuminate how such programs benefit participants.

Impact of a change in tillage and crop residue management practice on soil chemical and microbiological properties in a cereal-producing red duplex soil in NSW, Australia

The effect of a change of tillage and crop residue management practice on the chemical and micro-biological properties of a cereal-producing red duplex soil was investigated by superimposing each of three management practices (CC: conventional cultivation, stubble burnt, crop conventionally sown; DD: direct-drilling, stubble retained, no cultivation, crop direct-drilled; SI: stubble incorporated with a single cultivation, crop conventionally sown), for a 3-year period on plots previously managed with each of the same three practices for 14 years. A change from DD to CC or SI practice resulted in a significant decline, in the top 0-5 cm of soil, in organic C, total N, electrical conductivity, NH4-N, NO3-N, soil moisture holding capacity, microbial biomass and CO2 respiration as well as a decline in the microbial quotient (the ratio of microbial biomass C to organic C; P <0.05). In contrast, a change from SI to DD or CC practice or a change from CC to DD or SI practice had only negligible impact on soil chemical properties (P >0.05). However, there was a significant increase in microbial biomass and the microbial quotient in the top 0-5 cm of soil following the change from CC to DD or SI practice and with the change from SI to DD practice (P <0.05). Analysis of ester-linked fatty acid methyl esters (EL-FAMEs) extracted from the 0- to 5-cm and 5- to 10-cm layers of the soils of the various treatments detected changes in the FAME profiles following a change in tillage practice. A change from DD practice to SI or CC practice was associated with a significant decline in the ratio of fungal to bacterial fatty acids in the 0- to 5-cm soil (P <0.05). The results show that a change in tillage practice, particularly the cultivation of a previously minimum-tilled (direct-drilled) soil, will result in significant changes in soil chemical and microbiological properties within a 3-year period. They also show that soil microbiological properties are sensitive indicators of a change in tillage practice.

Mechanisms of change in psychotherapy for people diagnosed with schizophrenia : the role of narrative reflexivity in promoting recovery

Narrative reflexivity was investigated as a potential mechanism of therapeutic change during a 12 - 18 month trial of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy for people diagnosed with schizophrenia. Participants were nine adult clients (8 male, 1 female) aged between 25-65 years (M = 44, SD = 12.76) with a diagnosis of schizophrenia consistent with DSM-IV criteria and seven female provisional psychologists aged between 25-29 years (M = 26.8 years, SD = 1.47 years). Recovery and narrative reflexivity were measured at three time points using the Recovery Assessment Scale (RAS) and the Narrative Processes Coding System (NPCS). Results were reported descriptively due to limited sample size (n = 9). The majority of clients (n = 7) reported an increase in recovery over the course of treatment. For six clients, an overall increase in recovery was associated with an increase in narrative reflexivity. This study provides preliminary support for narrative reflexivity as a potential mechanism of therapeutic change in the psychotherapy of people diagnosed with schizophrenia.

Assessing community resilience to climate change

Settlements and communities in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are highly vulnerable to climate change and face an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. The concept of community resilience is gaining momentum as stakeholders and institutions seek to better understand the social, economic and governance factors which affect community capacity to adapt in the face of climate change. This paper defines a framework to benchmark community resilience and applies it to a case study in the Wet Tropics in tropical Queensland within the GBR catchment. It finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change, particularly in terms of economic vitality, community knowledge, aspirations and capacity for adaptation. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Capacity to manage the possible shocks associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events is emerging and needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. Better information about what actions, policies and arrangements build community resilience and mobilise adaptive capacity in the face of climate change is needed.

Organisational change in public organisations

This research applies a multidimensional model of publicness to the analysis of organisational change and in so doing enriches understanding of the public nature of organisations and how public characteristics facilitate change. Much of the prior literature describes public organisations as bureaucratic, with characteristics that are resistant to change, hierarchical structures that impede information flow, goals that are imposed and scrutinised by political authority and red tape that constrains decision-making. This dissertation instead reports a more complex picture and explains how public characteristics can also work in ways that enable organisational change.

Supine to standing Cobb Angle change in idiopathic scoliosis: The effect of endplate preselection

Introduction Standing radiographs are the ‘gold standard’ for clinical assessment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), with the Cobb Angle used to measure the severity and progression of the scoliotic curve. Supine imaging modalities can provide valuable 3D information on scoliotic anatomy, however, due to changes in gravitational loading direction, the geometry of the spine alters between the supine and standing position which in turn affects the Cobb Angle measurement. Previous studies have consistently reported a 7-10° [1-3] Cobb Angle increase from supine to standing, however, none have reported the effect of endplate pre-selection and which (if any) curve parameters affect the supine to standing Cobb Angle difference. Methods Female AIS patients with right-sided thoracic major curves were included in the retrospective study. Clinically measured Cobb Angles from existing standing coronal radiographs and fulcrum bending radiographs [4] were compared to existing low-dose supine CT scans taken within 3 months of the reference radiograph. Reformatted coronal CT images were used to measure Cobb Angle variability with and without endplate pre-selection (end-plates selected on the radiographs used on the CT images). Inter and intra-observer measurement variability was assessed. Multi-linear regression was used to investigate whether there was a relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and patient characteristics (SPSS, v.21, IBM, USA). Results Fifty-two patients were included, with mean age of 14.6 (SD 1.8) years; all curves were Lenke Type 1 with mean Cobb Angle on supine CT of 42° (SD 6.4°) and 52° (SD 6.7°) on standing radiographs. The mean fulcrum bending Cobb Angle for the group was 22.6° (SD 7.5°). The 10° increase from supine to standing is consistent with existing literature. Pre-selecting vertebral endplates was found to increase the Cobb Angle difference by a mean 2° (range 0-9°). Multi-linear regression revealed a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change with: fulcrum flexibility (p=0.001), age (p=0.027) and standing Cobb Angle (p<0.001). In patients with high fulcrum flexibility scores, the supine to standing Cobb Angle change was as great as 20°.The 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer and inter-observer measurement variability were 3.1° and 3.6°, respectively. Conclusion There is a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and fulcrum flexibility. Therefore, this difference can be considered a measure of spinal flexibility. Pre-selecting vertebral endplates causes only minor changes.

Strategic play among family members when making long-term care decisions

This paper describes a strategic model of bargaining within a family to determine how to care for an elderly parent. We estimate the parameters of the model using data from the National Long-term Care Survey. We find that the parameter estimates generally make sense and that the model is consistent with the data. The results have strong implications for using less structural empirical models for policy analysis.

Comparative analyses of change orders costs in transportation construction

Transportation construction is substantially different from other construction fields due to widespread use of unit price bidding and competitive contract awarding. Thus, the potential for change orders has been the main source of unbalanced bidding for contractors, which can be described as substantial increases in work quantity or reasonable changes to the initial design provided by the State Highway Agencies (SHAs). It is important to understand the causes of the change orders as cost related issues are the main reason for contract disputes. We have analyzed a large dataset from a major SHA to identify project related and environmental factors that affect the change order costs. The results of the study can be instrumental in assessing the increased costs associated with change orders and better management measures can be taken to mitigate their effects.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

The transformation of bureaucracy? Structural change in the Commonwealth public service 1983-93

Commentators have predicted bureaucratic organisations would undergo substantial change as a result of social and economic pressures. We ask whether reforms to the Australian public service over the 1983–93 period exemplify this process. We use the methods of organisational analysis to characterise the direction of change, basing our assessment on the standard structural variables of complexity, formalisation and centralisation, together with a cultural variable. We find evidence that, overall, departments of state in the APS were becoming less bureaucratic in their structure, culture and internal function in the 1983–93 period. However, the effect was not uniform across departments, or unambiguous — formalisation, for example, increased in some respects and decreased in others. Centralisation increased overall, despite devolution of some decision-making.

Strategic entry deterrence : does it constitute a misuse of market power?

A challenge for regulators and the courts has been establishing the boundary between behaviour is exclusionary and should be condemned under s 46 of the then Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth) (TPA), now s 46 of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth) (CCA), and behaviour that is not exclusionary and might even be pro-competitive. This boundary can be especially difficult to draw in the case of entry deterring strategies. Section 46(1) prohibits corporations with a substantial degree of market power from taking advantage of that market power for one of the statutorily proscribed purposes which include preventing the entry of a person into that or any other market. Section 45(2) separately prohibits corporations from making and giving effect to contracts arrangements and understandings that have the purpose, effect or likely effect of substantially lessening competition in a market. The latest case in which the ACCC has failed to satisfy the s 46 criteria is the decision of Greenwood J in ACCC v Cement Australia Pty Ltd [2013] FCA 909 (Cement Australia case). Final orders were published in a separate judgment, in ACCC v Cement Australia Pty Ltd [2014] FCA 148 (28 February 2014). The case concerned an entry deterring strategy, namely the pre-emptive buying of input factors in an upstream market to protect an incumbent with substantial market power in a downstream market and to prevent new entry in the downstream market. Greenwood J found that while Cement Australia Pty Ltd, formerly known as Queensland Cement Ltd (QCL), had substantial market power, its conduct in entering into the pre-emptive contracts was not a contravention of s 46, because Cement Australia had not “taken advantage” of its market power. However, since Cement Australia’s purpose in entering into the pre-emptive contracts was anti-competitive, they were held to contravene s 45(2) of the TPA. The purpose of this Note is to consider only the reasons for judgment in the Cement Australia case in relation to the “taking advantage” element. The judgment was handed down on 10 September 2013. The final hearing date was 15 July 2011, so it was long-awaited. At 714 pages, it is carefully drafted.

Gentrification and the artistic dividend : the role of the arts in neighborhood change

Problem, research strategy, and findings: There is a conflict between recent creative placemaking policies intended to promote positive neighborhood development through the arts and the fact that the arts have long been cited as contributing to gentrification and the displacement of lower-income residents. Unfortunately, we do not have data to demonstrate widespread evidence of either outcome. We address the dearth of comprehensive research and inform neighborhood planning efforts by statistically testing how two different groups of arts activities—the fine arts and commercial arts industries—are associated with conditions indicative of revitalization and gentrification in 100 large U.S. metropolitan areas. We find that different arts activities are associated with different types and levels of neighborhood change. Commercial arts industries show the strongest association with gentrification in rapidly changing areas, while the fine arts are associated with stable, slow-growth neighborhoods. Takeaway for practice: This research can help planners to more effectively incorporate the arts into neighborhood planning efforts and to anticipate the potential for different outcomes in their arts development strategies, including gentrification-related displacement.

Strategic targeting of the PI3K–NFκB axis in cisplatin-resistant NSCLC

Chemoresistance is a major therapeutic challenge to overcome in NSCLC, in order to improve the current survival rates of <15% at 5 years. We and others have shown increased PI3K signaling in NSCLC to be associated with a more aggressive disease, and a poorer prognosis. In this study, targeted inhibition of three strategic points of the PI3K–NFκB axis was performed with the aim of exploiting vulnerabilities in cisplatin-resistant NSCLC cells. Cisplatin-resistant cell lines were previously generated through prolonged exposure to the drug. Expression of PI3K and NFκB pathway-related genes were compared between cisplatin-resistant cells and their matched parent cells using a gene expression array, qRT-PCR, DNA sequencing, western blot, and immunofluorescence. Targeted inhibition was performed using GDC-0980, a dual PI3K–mTOR inhibitor currently in Phase II clinical trials in NSCLC, and DHMEQ, an inhibitor of NFκB translocation which has been used extensively both in vitro and in vivo. Effects of the two inhibitors were assessed by BrdU proliferation assay and multiparameter viability assay. NFKBIA was shown to be 12-fold overexpressed in cisplatin-resistant cells, with no mutations present in exons 3, 4, or 5 of the gene. Corresponding overexpression of IκBα was also observed. Treatment with DHMEQ (but not GDC-0980) led to significantly enhanced effects on viability and proliferation in cisplatin-resistant cells compared with parent cells. We conclude that NFκB inhibition represents a more promising strategy than PI3K–mTOR inhibition for treatment in the chemoresistance setting in NSCLC.

Longitudinal change in sleep and daytime sleepiness in postpartum women

Sleep disruption strongly influences daytime functioning; resultant sleepiness is recognised as a contributing risk-factor for individuals performing critical and dangerous tasks. While the relationship between sleep and sleepiness has been heavily investigated in the vulnerable sub-populations of shift workers and patients with sleep disorders, postpartum women have been comparatively overlooked. Thirty-three healthy, postpartum women recorded every episode of sleep and wake each day during postpartum weeks 6, 12 and 18. Although repeated measures analysis revealed there was no significant difference in the amount of nocturnal sleep and frequency of night-time wakings, there was a significant reduction in sleep disruption, due to fewer minutes of wake after sleep onset. Subjective sleepiness was measured each day using the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale; at the two earlier time points this was significantly correlated with sleep quality but not to sleep quantity. Epworth Sleepiness Scores significantly reduced over time; however, during week 18 over 50% of participants were still experiencing excessive daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Score ≥12). Results have implications for health care providers and policy makers. Health care providers designing interventions to address sleepiness in new mothers should take into account the dynamic changes to sleep and sleepiness during this initial postpartum period. Policy makers developing regulations for parental leave entitlements should take into consideration the high prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness experienced by new mothers, ensuring enough opportunity for daytime sleepiness to diminish to a manageable level prior to reengagement in the workforce.