Modification of advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model for the whole project life cycle’s risks

The advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (APRAM) is one of the recently developed methods that can be used for risk analysis and management purposes considering schedule, cost, and quality risks simultaneously. However, this model considers those failure risks that occur only over the design and construction phases of a project’s life cycle. While it can be sufficient for some projects for which the required cost during the operating life is much less than the budget required over the construction period, it should be modified in relation to infrastructure projects because the associated costs during the operating life cycle are significant. In this paper, a modified APRAM is proposed, which can consider potential risks that might occur over the entire life cycle of the project, including technical and managerial failure risks. Therefore, the modified model can be used as an efficient decision-support tool for construction managers in the housing industry in which various alternatives might be technically available. The modified method is demonstrated by using a real building project, and this demonstration shows that it can be employed efficiently by construction managers. The Delphi method was applied in order to figure out the failure events and their associated probabilities. The results show that although the initial cost of a cold-formed steel structural system is higher than a conventional construction system, the former’s failure cost is much lower than the latter’s

A comparative analysis of major ERP lifecycle implementation, management and support issues in Queensland Government

This paper reports on a study of ERP lifecycle major issues from the perspectives of individuals with substantial and diverse involvement with SAP Financials in Queensland Government. A survey was conducted of 117 ERP system project participants in five closely related state government agencies. A modified Delphi technique identified, rationalized and weighed perceived major issues in ongoing ERP life cycle implementation, management and support. The five agencies each implemented SAP Financials simultaneously using a common implementation partner. The three survey rounds of the Delphi technique, together with coding and synthesizing procedures, resulted in a set of 10 major issue categories with 38 sub-issues. Relative scores of issue importance are compared across government agencies, roles (client vs implementation partner) and organizational levels (strategic, technical and operational). Study findings confirm the importance of this finer partitioning of the data, and distinctions identified reflect the circumstances of ERP lifecycle implementation, management and support among the stakeholder groups. The study findings should also be of interest to stakeholders who seek to better understand the issues surrounding ERP systems and to better realise the benefits of ERP.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

Modal choice between air and rail : a social efficiency benchmarking analysis that considers CO2 emissions

The problem of modal choice between rail and air arises as public awareness of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by the transportation sector rises. In this paper, we answer this question quantitatively by performing an efficiency benchmarking analysis that takes into account life-cycle CO2 emission due to transport service provision. The paper employs nonparametric efficiency estimation methods, namely a slacks-based inefficiency measure, as well as a more conventional directional distance function approach. We apply them to a panel data set for three major railway companies and the aviation sector in Japan for the period from 1999 to 2007. Results shows that, contrary to the common argument, air transport can still be more socially efficient than rail transport, even when the environmental load due to CO2 emission is incorporated. This is due to the aviation sector's extremely low user cost, measured in terms of in-vehicle time. In other words, aviation is a necessary transportation mode for those with a very high willingness to pay for their time.

Three-dimensional off-design numerical analysis of an organic Rankine cycle radial-inflow turbine

Optimisation of organic Rankine cycles(ORCs for binary cycle applications could play a major role in determining the competitiveness of low to moderate renewable sources. An important aspect of the optimisation is to maximise the turbine output power for a given resource. This requires careful attention to the turbine design notably through numerical simulations. Challenges in the numerical modelling of radial-inflow turbines using high-density working fluids still need to be addressed in order to improve the turbine design and better optimise ORCs. Thispaper presents preliminary 3D numerical simulations of a high-density radial-inflow ORC turbine in sensible geothermal conditions. Following extensive investigation of the operating conditions and thermodynamic cycle analysis, therefrigerant R143a is chosen as the high-density working fluid. The 1D design of the candidate radial-inflow turbine is presented in details. Furthermore, commercially-available software Ansys-CFX is used to perform preliminary steady-state 3D CFD simulations of the candidate R143a radial-inflow turbine for a number of operating conditions including off-design conditions. The real-gas properties are obtained using the Peng–Robinson equations of state.The thermodynamic ORC cycle is presented. The preliminary design created using dedicated radial-inflow turbine software Concepts-Rital is discussed and the 3D CFD results are presented and compared against the meanline analysis.

Electronic tendering: an industry perspective

The construction industry is categorised as being an information-intensive industry and described as one of the most important industries in any developed country, facing a period of rapid and unparalleled change (Industry Science Resources 1999) (Love P.E.D., Tucker S.N. et al. 1996). Project communications are becoming increasingly complex, with a growing need and fundamental drive to collaborate electronically at project level and beyond (Olesen K. and Myers M.D. 1999; Thorpe T. and Mead S. 2001; CITE 2003). Yet, the industry is also identified as having a considerable lack of knowledge and awareness about innovative information and communication technology (ICT) and web-based communication processes, systems and solutions which may prove beneficial in the procurement, delivery and life cycle of projects (NSW Government 1998; Kajewski S. and Weippert A. 2000). The Internet has debatably revolutionised the way in which information is stored, exchanged and viewed, opening new avenues for business, which only a decade ago were deemed almost inconceivable (DCITA 1998; IIB 2002). In an attempt to put these ‘new avenues of business’ into perspective, this report provides an overall ‘snapshot’ of current public and private construction industry sector opportunities and practices in the implementation and application of web-based ICT tools, systems and processes (e-Uptake). Research found that even with a reserved uptake, the construction industry and its participating organisations are making concerted efforts (fortunately with positive results) in taking up innovative forms of doing business via the internet, including e-Tendering (making it possible to manage the entire tender letting process electronically and online) (Anumba C.J. and Ruikar K. 2002; ITCBP 2003). Furthermore, Government (often a key client within the construction industry),and with its increased tendency to transact its business electronically, undoubtedly has an effect on how various private industry consultants, contractors, suppliers, etc. do business (Murray M. 2003) – by offering a wide range of (current and anticipated) e-facilities / services, including e-Tendering (Ecommerce 2002). Overall, doing business electronically is found to have a profound impact on the way today’s construction businesses operate - streamlining existing processes, with the growth in innovative tools, such as e-Tender, offering the construction industry new responsibilities and opportunities for all parties involved (ITCBP 2003). It is therefore important that these opportunities should be accessible to as many construction industry businesses as possible (The Construction Confederation 2001). Historically, there is a considerable exchange of information between various parties during a tendering process, where accuracy and efficiency of documentation is critical. Traditionally this process is either paper-based (involving large volumes of supporting tender documentation), or via a number of stand-alone, non-compatible computer systems, usually costly to both the client and contractor. As such, having a standard electronic exchange format that allows all parties involved in an electronic tender process to access one system only via the Internet, saves both time and money, eliminates transcription errors and increases speed of bid analysis (The Construction Confederation 2001). Supporting this research project’s aims and objectives, researchers set to determine today’s construction industry ‘current state-of-play’ in relation to e-Tendering opportunities. The report also provides brief introductions to several Australian and International e-Tender systems identified during this investigation. e-Tendering, in its simplest form, is described as the electronic publishing, communicating, accessing, receiving and submitting of all tender related information and documentation via the internet, thereby replacing the traditional paper-based tender processes, and achieving a more efficient and effective business process for all parties involved (NT Governement 2000; NT Government 2000; NSW Department of Commerce 2003; NSW Government 2003). Although most of the e-Tender websites investigated at the time, maintain their tendering processes and capabilities are ‘electronic’, research shows these ‘eTendering’ systems vary from being reasonably advanced to more ‘basic’ electronic tender notification and archiving services for various industry sectors. Research also indicates an e-Tender system should have a number of basic features and capabilities, including: • All tender documentation to be distributed via a secure web-based tender system – thereby avoiding the need for collating paperwork and couriers. • The client/purchaser should be able to upload a notice and/or invitation to tender onto the system. • Notification is sent out electronically (usually via email) for suppliers to download the information and return their responses electronically (online). • During the tender period, updates and queries are exchanged through the same e-Tender system. • The client/purchaser should only be able to access the tenders after the deadline has passed. • All tender related information is held in a central database, which should be easily searchable and fully audited, with all activities recorded. • It is essential that tender documents are not read or submitted by unauthorised parties. • Users of the e-Tender system are to be properly identified and registered via controlled access. In simple terms, security has to be as good as if not better than a manual tender process. Data is to be encrypted and users authenticated by means such as digital signatures, electronic certificates or smartcards. • All parties must be assured that no 'undetected' alterations can be made to any tender. • The tenderer should be able to amend the bid right up to the deadline – whilst the client/purchaser cannot obtain access until the submission deadline has passed. • The e-Tender system may also include features such as a database of service providers with spreadsheet-based pricing schedules, which can make it easier for a potential tenderer to electronically prepare and analyse a tender. Research indicates the efficiency of an e-Tender process is well supported internationally, with a significant number, yet similar, e-Tender benefits identified during this investigation. Both construction industry and Government participants generally agree that the implementation of an automated e-Tendering process or system enhances the overall quality, timeliness and cost-effectiveness of a tender process, and provides a more streamlined method of receiving, managing, and submitting tender documents than the traditional paper-based process. On the other hand, whilst there are undoubtedly many more barriers challenging the successful implementation and adoption of an e-Tendering system or process, researchers have also identified a range of challenges and perceptions that seem to hinder the uptake of this innovative approach to tendering electronically. A central concern seems to be that of security - when industry organisations have to use the Internet for electronic information transfer. As a result, when it comes to e-Tendering, industry participants insist these innovative tendering systems are developed to ensure the utmost security and integrity. Finally, if Australian organisations continue to explore the competitive ‘dynamics’ of the construction industry, without realising the current and future, trends and benefits of adopting innovative processes, such as e-Tendering, it will limit their globalising opportunities to expand into overseas markets and allow the continuation of international firms successfully entering local markets. As such, researchers believe increased knowledge, awareness and successful implementation of innovative systems and processes raises great expectations regarding their contribution towards ‘stimulating’ the globalisation of electronic procurement activities, and improving overall business and project performances throughout the construction industry sectors and overall marketplace (NSW Government 2002; Harty C. 2003; Murray M. 2003; Pietroforte R. 2003). Achieving the successful integration of an innovative e-Tender solution with an existing / traditional process can be a complex, and if not done correctly, could lead to failure (Bourn J. 2002).

Evaluation of functional performance in commercial buildings

This report fully summarises a project designed to enhance commercial real estate performance within both operational and investment contexts through the development of a model aimed at supporting improved decision-making. The model is based on a risk adjusted discounted cash flow, providing a valuable toolkit for building managers, owners, and potential investors for evaluating individual building performance in terms of financial, social and environmental criteria over the complete life-cycle of the asset. The ‘triple bottom line’ approach to the evaluation of commercial property has much significance for the administrators of public property portfolios in particular. It also has applications more generally for the wider real estate industry given that the advent of ‘green’ construction requires new methods for evaluating both new and existing building stocks. The research is unique in that it focuses on the accuracy of the input variables required for the model. These key variables were largely determined by market-based research and an extensive literature review, and have been fine-tuned with extensive testing. In essence, the project has considered probability-based risk analysis techniques that required market-based assessment. The projections listed in the partner engineers’ building audit reports of the four case study buildings were fed into the property evaluation model developed by the research team. The results are strongly consistent with previously existing, less robust evaluation techniques. And importantly, this model pioneers an approach for taking full account of the triple bottom line, establishing a benchmark for related research to follow. The project’s industry partners expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the project outcomes at a recent demonstration seminar. The project in its existing form has not been geared towards commercial applications but it is anticipated that QDPW and other industry partners will benefit greatly by using this tool for the performance evaluation of property assets. The project met the objectives of the original proposal as well as all the specified milestones. The project has been completed within budget and on time. This research project has achieved the objective by establishing research foci on the model structure, the key input variable identification, the drivers of the relevant property markets, the determinants of the key variables (Research Engine no.1), the examination of risk measurement, the incorporation of risk simulation exercises (Research Engine no.2), the importance of both environmental and social factors and, finally the impact of the triple bottom line measures on the asset (Research Engine no. 3).

Challenges in residual service life assessment for refurbishment

A need for an efficient life care management of building portfolio is becoming increasingly due to increase in aging building infrastructure globally. Appropriate structural engineering practices along with facility management can assist in optimising the remaining life cycle costs for existing public building portfolio. A more precise decision to either demolish, refurbish, do nothing or rebuilt option for any typical building under investigation is needed. In order to achieve this, the status of health of the building needs to be assessed considering several aspects including economic and supply-demand considerations. An investment decision for a refurbishment project competing with other capital works and/or refurbishment projects can be supported by emerging methodology residual service life assessment. This paper discusses challenges in refurbishment projects of public buildings and with a view towards development of residual service life assessment methodology

HVAC system size – getting it right

There is evidence that many heating, ventilating & air conditioning (HVAC) systems, installed in larger buildings, have more capacity than is ever required to keep the occupants comfortable. This paper explores the reasons why this can occur, by examining a typical brief/design/documentation process. Over-sized HVAC systems cost more to install and operate and may not be able to control thermal comfort as well as a “right-sized” system. These impacts are evaluated, where data exists. Finally, some suggestions are developed to minimise both the extent of, and the negative impacts of, HVAC system over-sizing, for example: • Challenge “rules of thumb” and/or brief requirements which may be out of date. • Conduct an accurate load estimate, using AIRAH design data, specific to project location, and then resist the temptation to apply “safety factors • Use a load estimation program that accounts for thermal storage and diversification of peak loads for each zone and air handling system. • Select chiller sizes and staged or variable speed pumps and fans to ensure good part load performance. • Allow for unknown future tenancies by designing flexibility into the system, not by over-sizing. For example, generous sizing of distribution pipework and ductwork will allow available capacity to be redistributed. • Provide an auxiliary tenant condenser water loop to handle high load areas. • Consider using an Integrated Design Process, build an integrated load and energy use simulation model and test different operational scenarios • Use comprehensive Life Cycle Cost analysis for selection of the most optimal design solutions. This paper is an interim report on the findings of CRC-CI project 2002-051-B, Right-Sizing HVAC Systems, which is due for completion in January 2006.

Integrating eco-efficiency assessment of commercial buildings into the design process : LCADesign

The ability to assess a commercial building for its impact on the environment at the earliest stage of design is a goal which is achievable by integrating several approaches into a single procedure directly from the 3D CAD representation. Such an approach enables building design professionals to make informed decisions on the environmental impact of building and its alternatives during the design development stage instead of at the post-design stage where options become limited. The indicators of interest are those which relate to consumption of resources and energy, contributions to pollution of air, water and soil, and impacts on the health and wellbeing of people in the built environment as a result of constructing and operating buildings. 3D object-oriented CAD files contain a wealth of building information which can be interrogated for details required for analysis of the performance of a design. The quantities of all components in the building can be automatically obtained from the 3D CAD objects and their constituent materials identified to calculate a complete list of the amounts of all building products such as concrete, steel, timber, plastic etc. When this information is combined with a life cycle inventory database, key internationally recognised environmental indicators can be estimated. Such a fully integrated tool known as LCADesign has been created for automated ecoefficiency assessment of commercial buildings direct from 3D CAD. This paper outlines the key features of LCADesign and its application to environmental assessment of commercial buildings.

LCADesign : an integrated approach to automatic eco-efficiency assessment of commercial buildings

Buildings consume resources and energy, contribute to pollution of our air, water and soil, impact the health and well-being of populations and constitute an important part of the built environment in which we live. The ability to assess their design with a view to reducing that impact automatically from their 3D CAD representations enables building design professionals to make informed decisions on the environmental impact of building structures. Contemporary 3D object-oriented CAD files contain a wealth of building information. LCADesign has been designed as a fully integrated approach for automated eco-efficiency assessment of commercial buildings direct from 3D CAD. LCADesign accesses the 3D CAD detail through Industry Foundation Classes (IFCs) - the international standard file format for defining architectural and constructional CAD graphic data as 3D real-world objects - to permit construction professionals to interrogate these intelligent drawing objects for analysis of the performance of a design. The automated take-off provides quantities of all building components whose specific production processes, logistics and raw material inputs, where necessary, are identified to calculate a complete list of quantities for all products such as concrete, steel, timber, plastic etc and combines this information with the life cycle inventory database, to estimate key internationally recognised environmental indicators such as CML, EPS and Eco-indicator 99. This paper outlines the key modules of LCADesign and their role in delivering an automated eco-efficiency assessment for commercial buildings.

Building information modelling : an issue of adoption and change management

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an IT enabled technology that allows storage, management, sharing, access, update and use of all the data relevant to a project through out the project life-cycle in the form of a data repository. BIM enables improved inter-disciplinary collaboration across distributed teams, intelligent documentation and information retrieval, greater consistency in building data, better conflict detection and enhanced facilities management. While the technology itself may not be new, and similar approaches have been in use in some other sectors like Aircraft and Automobile industry for well over a decade now, the AEC/FM (Architecture, Engineering and Construction/ Facilities Management) industry is still to catch up with them in its ability to exploit the benefits of the IT revolution. Though the potential benefits of the technology in terms of knowledge sharing, project management, project co-ordination and collaboration are near to obvious, the adoption rate has been rather lethargic, inspite of some well directed efforts and availability of supporting commercial tools. Since the technology itself has been well tested over the years in some other domains the plausible causes must be rooted well beyond the explanation of the ‘Bell Curve of innovation adoption’. This paper discusses the preliminary findings of an ongoing research project funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC-CI) which aims to identify these gaps and come up with specifications and guidelines to enable greater adoption of the BIM approach in practice. A detailed literature review is conducted that looks at some of the similar research reported in the recent years. A desktop audit of some of the existing commercial tools that support BIM application has been conducted to identify the technological issues and concerns, and a workshop was organized with industry partners and various players in the AEC industry for needs analysis, expectations and feedback on the possible deterrents and inhibitions surrounding the BIM adoption.

Quality-aware business process management

Business Process Management (BPM) has emerged as a popular management approach in both Information Technology (IT) and management practice. While there has been much research on business process modelling and the BPM life cycle, there has been little attention given to managing the quality of a business process during its life cycle. This study addresses this gap by providing a framework for organisations to manage the quality of business processes during different phases of the BPM life cycle. This study employs a multi-method research design which is based on the design science approach and the action research methodology. During the design science phase, the artifacts to model a quality-aware business process were developed. These artifacts were then evaluated through three cycles of action research which were conducted within three large Australian-based organisations. This study contributes to the body of BPM knowledge in a number of ways. Firstly, it presents a quality-aware BPM life cycle that provides a framework on how quality can be incorporated into a business process and subsequently managed during the BPM life cycle. Secondly, it provides a framework to capture and model quality requirements of a business process as a set of measurable elements that can be incorporated into the business process model. Finally, it proposes a novel root cause analysis technique for determining the causes of quality issues within business processes.

Risk management in the Lusoponte concession : a case study of the two bridges in Lisbon, Portugal

The case study of Lusoponte illustrates the concession awarded by the Portuguese Government to finance, design, build and operate two bridges over the Tagus in Lisbon, Portugal. It includes an overview of the project's background and an analysis of the main risk categories stating both the actual risks encountered and the mitigation measures adopted. Throughout the project a great attention was given to whole life cycle costs, and gains in efficiency and cost control. Among the lessons that can be learned from both the public and private sector is that a complete risk management analysis must include not only the technical factors but also a realistic assessment of environmental and social risks. These were the risks that were somewhat overseen and that caused the main problems to the project's development.