Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

The Australian Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) : measuring the quality and outcomes of palliative care on a routine basis

Australia is leading the way in establishing a national system (the Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration – PCOC) to measure the outcomes and quality of specialist palliative care services and to benchmark services across the country. This article reports on analysis of data collected routinely at point-of-care on 5939 patients treated by the first fifty one services that voluntarily joined PCOC. By March 2009, 111 services have agreed to join PCOC, representing more than 70% of services and more than 80% of specialist palliative care patients nationally. All states and territories are involved in this unique process that has involved extensive consultation and infrastructure and close collaboration between health services and researchers. The challenges of dealing with wide variation in outcomes and practice and the progress achieved to date are described. PCOC is aiming to improve understanding of the reasons for variations in clinical outcomes between specialist palliative care patients and differences in service outcomes as a critical step in an ongoing process to improve both service quality and patient outcomes. What is known about the topic? Governments internationally are grappling with how best to provide care for people with life limiting illnesses and how best to measure the outcomes and quality of that care. There is little international evidence on how to measure the quality and outcomes of palliative care on a routine basis. What does this paper add? The Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) is the first effort internationally to measure the outcomes and quality of specialist palliative care services and to benchmark services on a national basis through an independent third party. What are the implications for practitioners? If outcomes and quality are to be measured on a consistent national basis, standard clinical assessment tools that are used as part of everyday clinical practice are necessary.

Empirical basis for adopting a theory-driven approach to preventing alcohol and other drug impairment (AOD) in the workplace

Background: A State-based industry in Australia is in the process of developing a programme to prevent AOD impairment in the workplace. The objective of this study was to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour can help explain the mechanisms by which behaviour change occurs with regard to AOD impairment in the workplace. ---------- Method: A survey of 1165 employees of a State-based industry in Australia was conducted, and a response rate of 98% was achieved. The survey included questions relevant to the Theory of Planned Behaviour: behaviour; behavioural intentions; attitude; perceptions of social pressure; and perceived behavioural control with regard to workplace AOD impairment. ---------- Findings: Less than 3% of participants reported coming to work impaired by AODs. Fewer than 2% of participants reported that they intended to come to work impaired by AODs. The majority of participants (over 80%) reported unfavourable attitudes toward AOD impairment at work. Logistic regression analyses suggest that, consistent with the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceptions of social pressure, and perceived behavioural control with regard to workplace AOD impairment, all predict behavioural intentions (P < .001); and behavioural intentions predict (self-reported) behaviour regarding workplace AOD impairment (P < .001). ---------- Conclusions: The Theory of Planned Behaviour appears to assist with understanding the mechanisms by which behaviour change occurs with regard to AOD impairment in the workplace. An occupational AOD programme which targets those mechanisms for change may improve its impact in preventing workplace AOD impairment.

Rough sets based reasoning and pattern mining for a two-stage information filtering system

This paper presents a novel two-stage information filtering model which combines the merits of term-based and pattern- based approaches to effectively filter sheer volume of information. In particular, the first filtering stage is supported by a novel rough analysis model which efficiently removes a large number of irrelevant documents, thereby addressing the overload problem. The second filtering stage is empowered by a semantically rich pattern taxonomy mining model which effectively fetches incoming documents according to the specific information needs of a user, thereby addressing the mismatch problem. The experiments have been conducted to compare the proposed two-stage filtering (T-SM) model with other possible "term-based + pattern-based" or "term-based + term-based" IF models. The results based on the RCV1 corpus show that the T-SM model significantly outperforms other types of "two-stage" IF models.

Adventure as the metaphoric basis for constructing a narrative to defuse a collective critical incident

This article describes an exercise in collective narrative practice, built around the metaphor of adventure. This metaphor helped to scaffold the development of stories of personal agency for a group of Australian primary school children whose teachers were afraid they might be traumatised by events which occurred during a school excursion. During the excursion, the group of 110 Year 5 and 6 school children had their accommodation broken into on two separate occasions and various belongings stolen. The very brief period made available for ‘debriefing’ was used to introduce the metaphor of adventure, and open up space for the children to begin constructing a story in which they were ‘powerful’, as an alternative to the story of powerlessness and victimhood in which they were initially caught up.

Validating a model of cooperative procurement in the construction industry

Project management in the construction industry involves coordination of many tasks and individuals, affected by complexity and uncertainty, which increases the need for efficient cooperation. Procurement is crucial since it sets the basis for cooperation between clients and contractors. This is true whether the project is local, regional or global in scope. Traditionally, procurement procedures are competitive, resulting in conflicts, adversarial relationships and less desirable project results. The purpose of this paper is to propose and empirically test an alternative procurement model based on cooperative procurement procedures that facilitates cooperation between clients and contractors in construction projects. The model is based on four multi-item constructs – incentive-based compensation, limited bidding options, partner selection and cooperation. Based on a sample of 87 client organisations, the model was empirically tested and exhibited strong support, including content, nomological, convergent and discriminant validity, as well as reliability. Our findings indicate that partner selection based on task related attributes mediates the relationship between two important pre-selection processes (incentive-based compensation and limited bid invitation) and preferred outcome of cooperation. The contribution of the paper is identifying valid and reliable measurement constructs and confirming a unique sequential order for achieving cooperation. Moreover, the findings are applicable for many types of construction projects because of the similarities in the construction industry worldwide.

Surrogacy and IVF

While in the past surrogacy was illegal in Queensland, since June 2010 the Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) (“the Act”) has made altruistic surrogacy arrangements lawful in Queensland. In addition, it provides a mechanism for transfer of legal parentage from the surrogate to the person(s) wishing to have a child (the intended parent(s)). Commercial surrogacy – where a payment, reward or other material benefit of advantage (other than the reimbursement of the “birth mother’s surrogacy costs” (s11 of the Act) is made for entering into a surrogacy arrangement – remains unlawful. The paramount guiding principle underpinning the Act is that of the wellbeing and best interests of a child born as a result of surrogacy. The Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) allows a single person or a couple (heterosexual or same sex couples) to enter into an agreement with a woman, and her partner (if she has one), to become pregnant with the intention that the child will be relinquished to the intended parent(s). The Act also provides a mechanism for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised as the parent(s) of the child. In order for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised (via a parentage order, discussed below) it must be shown that the surrogacy arrangement was entered into when all the parties were over 25 years of age and the intended parent(s) are male or, in a heterosexual or lesbian couple the female(s) are not likely to conceive or give birth to a healthy child due to medical reasons. The arrangement must be entered into before the surrogate becomes pregnant and all parties must have obtained independent legal advice and counselling about the proposed arrangement, and evidence of this is required at the time a parentage order is applied for. For the purposes of the Act it does not matter how the surrogate conceives the child or if the child is genetically related to the parties. During the period of the pregnancy, the surrogate has the right to manage her pregnancy in the way she wishes. Although she cannot profit from acting as a surrogate, section 11 states that she is entitled to surrogacy costs. These include, for example, reasonable medical costs related to pregnancy and the birth of the child; counselling and legal costs associated with the surrogacy arrangement; actual lost earnings because of leave taken during pregnancy or following birth and any reasonable travel expenses incurred. The surrogacy arrangement itself is not legally enforceable; however, obligations to pay a surrogate’s surrogacy costs are enforceable unless she chooses not to relinquish the child to the intending parents. While the Act does not specifically deal with the situation where the surrogate decides she is unprepared to relinquish the child to the intended parents, there have been examples where parties have entered into these kinds of arrangements, and the arrangements have become difficult. For example, the Family Court case of Re Evelyn (1998) FLC 92–807 involved a child born to a surrogate mother who decided not to surrender her. The child was the genetic child of the surrogate mother and the husband of the couple who had contracted with the surrogate mother. Both sets of parents brought proceedings in the court, seeking that the child live with them. In hearing the application, the court applied the paramount principle of the ‘best interests of the child’. The court made clear that there is no presumption in favour of the birth mother, although in this case the court found that the child may be better placed with the surrogate mother’s family.

The borders that law sets on entertainment

It is natural for those involved in entertainment to focus on the art. However, like any activity in even a free society, those involved in entertainment industries must operate within borders set by the law. This article examines the main areas of law that impact entertainment in an Australian context. It contrasts the position in relation to freedom of expression in Australia with that in the United States, which also promotes freedom of expression in a free society. It then briefly canvases the main limits on entertainment productions under Australian law.

Boundary weaving : the social structure and processes of organizational boundaries

Boundaries are an important field of study because they mediate almost every aspect of organizational life. They are becoming increasingly more important as organizations change more frequently and yet, despite the endemic use of the boundary metaphor in common organizational parlance, they are poorly understood. Organizational boundaries are under-theorized and researchers in related fields often simply assume their existence, without defining them. The literature on organizational boundaries is fragmented with no unifying theoretical basis. As a result, when it is recognized that an organizational boundary is "dysfunctional". there is little recourse to models on which to base remediating action. This research sets out to develop just such a theoretical model and is guided by the general question: "What is the nature of organizational boundaries?" It is argued that organizational boundaries can be conceptualised through elements of both social structure and of social process. Elements of structure include objects, coupling, properties and identity. Social processes include objectification, identification, interaction and emergence. All of these elements are integrated by a core category, or basic social process, called boundary weaving. An organizational boundary is a complex system of objects and emergent properties that are woven together by people as they interact together, objectifying the world around them, identifying with these objects and creating couplings of varying strength and polarity as well as their own fragmented identity. Organizational boundaries are characterised by the multiplicity of interconnections, a particular domain of objects, varying levels of embodiment and patterns of interaction. The theory developed in this research emerged from an exploratory, qualitative research design employing grounded theory methodology. The field data was collected from the training headquarters of the New Zealand Army using semi-structured interviews and follow up observations. The unit of analysis is an organizational boundary. Only one research context was used because of the richness and multiplicity of organizational boundaries that were present. The model arose, grounded in the data collected, through a process of theoretical memoing and constant comparative analysis. Academic literature was used as a source of data to aid theory development and the saturation of some central categories. The final theory is classified as middle range, being substantive rather than formal, and is generalizable across medium to large organizations in low-context societies. The main limitation of the research arose from the breadth of the research with multiple lines of inquiry spanning several academic disciplines, with some relevant areas such as the role of identity and complexity being addressed at a necessarily high level. The organizational boundary theory developed by this research replaces the typology approaches, typical of previous theory on organizational boundaries and reconceptualises the nature of groups in organizations as well as the role of "boundary spanners". It also has implications for any theory that relies on the concept of boundaries, such as general systems theory. The main contribution of this research is the development of a holistic model of organizational boundaries including an explanation of the multiplicity of boundaries . no organization has a single definable boundary. A significant aspect of this contribution is the integration of aspects of complexity theory and identity theory to explain the emergence of higher-order properties of organizational boundaries and of organizational identity. The core category of "boundary weaving". is a powerful new metaphor that significantly reconceptualises the way organizational boundaries may be understood in organizations. It invokes secondary metaphors such as the weaving of an organization's "boundary fabric". and provides managers with other metaphorical perspectives, such as the management of boundary friction, boundary tension, boundary permeability and boundary stability. Opportunities for future research reside in formalising and testing the theory as well as developing analytical tools that would enable managers in organizations to apply the theory in practice.

Detection versus false alarm characterisation of a vision-based airborne dim-target collision detection system

This paper presents a preliminary flight test based detection range versus false alarm performance characterisation of a morphological-hidden Markov model filtering approach to vision-based airborne dim-target collision detection. On the basis of compelling in-flight collision scenario data, we calculate system operating characteristic (SOC) curves that concisely illustrate the detection range versus false alarm rate performance design trade-offs. These preliminary SOC curves provide a more complete dim-target detection performance description than previous studies (due to the experimental difficulties involved, previous studies have been limited to very short flight data sample sets and hence have not been able to quantify false alarm behaviour). The preliminary investigation here is based on data collected from 4 controlled collision encounters and supporting non-target flight data. This study suggests head-on detection ranges of approximately 2.22 km under blue sky background conditions (1.26 km in cluttered background conditions), whilst experiencing false alarms at a rate less than 1.7 false alarms/hour (ie. less than once every 36 minutes). Further data collection is currently in progress.

Preventing injuries on a state-wide basis : researchers and parliamentary committees are partners in turning injury prevention and safety research into practice and policy

Context: Parliamentary committees established in Westminster parliaments, such as Queensland, provide a cross-party structure that enables them to recommend policy and legislative changes that may otherwise be difficult for one party to recommend. The overall parliamentary committee process tends to be more cooperative and less adversarial than the main chamber of parliament and, as a result, this process permits parliamentary committees to make recommendations more on the available research evidence and less on political or party considerations. Objectives: This paper considers the contributions that parliamentary committees in Queensland have made in the past in the areas of road safety, drug use as well as organ and tissue donation. The paper also discusses the importance of researchers actively engaging with parliamentary committees to ensure the best evidence based policy outcomes. Key messages: In the past, parliamentary committees have successfully facilitated important safety changes with many committee recommendations based on research results. In order to maximise the benefits of the parliamentary committee process it is essential that researchers inform committees about their work and become key stakeholders in the inquiry process. Researchers can keep committees informed by making submissions to their inquiries, responding to requests for information and appearing as witnesses at public hearings. Researchers should emphasise the key findings and implications of their research as well as considering the jurisdictional implications and political consequences. It is important that researchers understand the differences between lobbying and providing informed recommendations when interacting with committees. Discussion and conclusions: Parliamentary committees in Queensland have successfully assisted in the introduction of evidence based policy and legislation. In order to present best practice recommendations, committees rely on the evidence presented to them including the results of researchers. Actively engaging with parliamentary committees will help researchers to turn their results into practice with a corresponding decrease in injuries and fatalities. Developing an understanding of parliamentary committees, and the typical inquiry process used by these committees, will help researchers to present their research results in a manner that will encourage the adoption of their ideas by parliamentary committees, the presentation of these results as recommendations within the report and the subsequent enactment of the committee’s recommendations by the government.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.