'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

Aromatherapy for treatment of postoperative nausea and vomiting

Background: Postoperative nausea and vomiting is a common and unpleasant phenomenon and current therapies are not always effective for all patients. Aromatherapy has been suggested as a possible addition to the available treatment strategies. Objectives: This review sought to establish what effect the use of aromatherapy has on the severity and duration of established postoperative nausea and vomiting and whether aromatherapy can be used with safety and clinical effectiveness comparable to standard pharmacological treatments. Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 3); MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; CAM on PubMed; Meditext; LILACS database; and ISI Web of Science as well as grey literature sources and the reference lists of retrieved articles. We conducted database searches up to August 2011. Selection criteria: We included all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled clinical trials (CCTs) where aromatherapy was used to treat postoperative nausea and vomiting. Interventions were all types of aromatherapy. Aromatherapy was defined as the inhalation of the vapours of any substance for the purposes of a therapeutic benefit. Primary outcomes were the severity and duration of postoperative nausea and vomiting. Secondary outcomes were adverse reactions, use of rescue anti-emetics and patient satisfaction with treatment. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors assessed risk of bias in the included studies and extracted data. As all outcomes analysed were dichotomous, we used a fixed-effects model and calculated relative risk (RR) with associated 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Results: The nine included studies comprised six RCTs and three CCTs with a total of 402 participants. The mean age and range data for all participants were not reported for all studies. The method of randomization in four of the six included RCTs was explicitly stated and adequate. Incomplete reporting of data affected the completeness of the analysis. Compared with placebo, isopropyl alcohol vapour inhalation was effective in reducing the proportion of participants requiring rescue anti-emetics (RR 0.30, 95%CI 0.09 to 1.00, P = 0.05). However, compared with standard anti-emetic treatment, isopropyl alcohol was not effective in reducing the proportion of participants requiring rescue anti-emetics (RR 0.66 95%CI 0.39 to 1.13, P = 0.13) except when the data from a possibly confounded study were included (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.98, P = 0.04). Where studies reported data on patient satisfaction with aromatherapy, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups (RR 1.12, 95%CI 0.62 to 2.03, P = 0.71). Authors' conclusions: Isopropyl alcohol was more effective than saline placebo for reducing postoperative nausea and vomiting but less effective than standard anti-emetic drugs. There is currently no reliable evidence for the use of peppermint oil.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Family-based programmes for preventing smoking by children and adolescents

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that children's decisions to smoke are influenced by family and friends. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of interventions to help family members to strengthen non-smoking attitudes and promote non-smoking by children and other family members. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched 14 electronic bibliographic databases, including the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialized register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL. We also searched unpublished material, and the reference lists of key articles. We performed both free-text Internet searches and targeted searches of appropriate websites, and we hand-searched key journals not available electronically. We also consulted authors and experts in the field. The most recent search was performed in July 2006. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions with children (aged 5-12) or adolescents (aged 13-18) and family members to deter the use of tobacco. The primary outcome was the effect of the intervention on the smoking status of children who reported no use of tobacco at baseline. Included trials had to report outcomes measured at least six months from the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We reviewed all potentially relevant citations and retrieved the full text to determine whether the study was an RCT and matched our inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed them for methodological quality. The studies were too limited in number and quality to undertake a formal meta-analysis, and we present a narrative synthesis. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 19 RCTs of family interventions to prevent smoking. We identified five RCTs in Category 1 (minimal risk of bias on all counts); nine in Category 2 (a risk of bias in one or more areas); and five in Category 3 (risks of bias in design and execution such that reliable conclusions cannot be drawn from the study).Considering the fourteen Category 1 and 2 studies together: (1) four of the nine that tested a family intervention against a control group had significant positive effects, but one showed significant negative effects; (2) one of the five RCTs that tested a family intervention against a school intervention had significant positive effects; (3) none of the six that compared the incremental effects of a family plus a school programme to a school programme alone had significant positive effects; (4) the one RCT that tested a family tobacco intervention against a family non-tobacco safety intervention showed no effects; and (5) the one trial that used general risk reduction interventions found the group which received the parent and teen interventions had less smoking than the one that received only the teen intervention (there was no tobacco intervention but tobacco outcomes were measured). For the included trials the amount of implementer training and the fidelity of implementation are related to positive outcomes, but the number of sessions is not. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Some well-executed RCTs show family interventions may prevent adolescent smoking, but RCTs which were less well executed had mostly neutral or negative results. There is thus a need for well-designed and executed RCTs in this area.

Do thermal agents affect range of movement and mechanical properties in soft tissues? A systematic review

OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of thermal agents on the range of movement (ROM) and mechanical properties in soft tissue and to discuss their clinical relevance. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, and EMBASE) were searched from their earliest available record up to May 2011 using Medical Subjects Headings and key words. We also undertook related articles searches and read reference lists of all incoming articles. STUDY SELECTION: Studies involving human participants describing the effects of thermal interventions on ROM and/or mechanical properties in soft tissue. Two reviewers independently screened studies against eligibility criteria. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted independently by 2 review authors using a customized form. Methodologic quality was also assessed by 2 authors independently, using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. DATA SYNTHESIS: Thirty-six studies, comprising a total of 1301 healthy participants, satisfied the inclusion criteria. There was a high risk of bias across all studies. Meta-analyses were not undertaken because of clinical heterogeneity; however, effect sizes were calculated. There were conflicting data on the effect of cold on joint ROM, accessory joint movement, and passive stiffness. There was limited evidence to determine whether acute cold applications enhance the effects of stretching, and further evidence is required. There was evidence that heat increases ROM, and a combination of heat and stretching is more effective than stretching alone. CONCLUSIONS: Heat is an effective adjunct to developmental and therapeutic stretching techniques and should be the treatment of choice for enhancing ROM in a clinical or sporting setting. The effects of heat or ice on other important mechanical properties (eg, passive stiffness) remain equivocal and should be the focus of future study.

Gender bias in schooling : the case for Bhutan

Differing parental considerations for girls and boys in households are a primary cause of the gender gap in school enrolment and educational attainment in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While a number of studies have focused on the inequality of educational opportunities in South Asia, little is known about Bhutan. This study uses recent household expenditure data from the Bhutan Living Standard Survey to evaluate the gender gap in the allocation of resources for schooling. The findings, based on cross-sectional as well as household fixed-effect approaches, suggest that girls are less likely to enrol in school but are not allocated fewer resources once they are enrolled.

Intratherapist reliability in the rating of scapula posture in multiple planes of reference

Background: Evaluation of scapular posture is a fundamental component in the clinical evaluation of the upper quadrant. This study examined the intrarater reliability of scapular posture ratings. Methods: A test-retest reliability investigation was undertaken with one week between assessment sessions. At each session physical therapists conducted visual assessments of scapula posture (relative to the thorax) in five different scapula postural planes (plane of scapula, sagittal plane, transverse plane, horizontal plane, and vertical plane). These five plane ratings were performed for four different scapular posture perturbating conditions (rest, isometric shoulder; flexion, abduction, and external rotation). Results. A total of 100 complete scapular posture ratings (50 left, 50 right) were undertaken at each assessment. The observed agreement between the test and retest postural plane ratings ranged from 59% to 87%; 16 of the 20 plane-condition combinations exceeded 75% observed agreement. Kappa (and prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa) values were inconsistent across the postural planes and perturbating conditions. Conclusions: This investigation generally revealed fair to moderate intrarater reliability in the rating of scapular posture by visual inspection. However, enough disagreement between assessments was present to warrant caution when interpreting perceived changes in scapula position between longitudinal assessments using visual inspection alone.

Assessment bias : physical activity questionnaire assessment inadvertently influences patients’ desire to be ‘more physically active’

Evaluating physical activity is important for public health population research and evaluating lifestyle interventions among targeted groups. Self-reported questionnaires are frequently used to evaluate physical activity in a variety of contexts where resource or pragmatic limitations prohibit the use of more sophisticated approaches. However, prior research in the use of other patient reported outcomes in healthcare settings has highlighted that simply completing a questionnaire may change a patients’ behaviour or responses to subsequent questions. This methodology study aimed to examine whether completing a standard physical activity questionnaire altered patients responses to two related questions a) whether they are ‘sufficiently physically active’ and b) whether they desire ‘to be more physically active.’

Recruiting and engaging new mothers in nutrition research studies : lessons from the Australian NOURISH randomised controlled trial

Background: Despite important implications for the budgets, statistical power and generalisability of research findings, detailed reports of recruitment and retention in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are rare. The NOURISH RCT evaluated a community-based intervention for first-time mothers that promoted protective infant feeding practices as a primary prevention strategy for childhood obesity. The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed description and evaluation of the recruitment and retention strategies used. Methods: A two stage recruitment process designed to provide a consecutive sampling framework was used. First time mothers delivering healthy term infants were initially approached in postnatal wards of the major maternity services in two Australian cities for consent to later contact (Stage 1). When infants were about four months old mothers were re-contacted by mail for enrolment (Stage 2), baseline measurements (Time 1) and subsequent random allocation to the intervention or control condition. Outcomes were assessed at infant ages 14 months (Time 2) and 24 months (Time 3). Results: At Stage 1, 86% of eligible mothers were approached and of these women, 76% consented to later contact. At Stage 2, 3% had become ineligible and 76% could be recontacted. Of the latter, 44% consented to full enrolment and were allocated. This represented 21% of mothers screened as eligible at Stage 1. Retention at Time 3 was 78%. Mothers who did not consent or discontinued the study were younger and less likely to have a university education. Conclusions: The consent and retention rates of our sample of first time mothers are comparable with or better than other similar studies. The recruitment strategy used allowed for detailed information from non-consenters to be collected; thus selection bias could be estimated. Recommendations for future studies include being able to contact participants via mobile phone (particular text messaging), offering home visits to reduce participant burden and considering the use of financial incentives to support participant retention.

A known-groups evaluation of the Response Bias Scale in a neuropsychological setting

We evaluated the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Second Edition (MMPI-2) Response Bias Scale (RBS). Archival data from 83 individuals who were referred for neuropsychological assessment with no formal diagnosis (n = 10), following a known or suspected traumatic brain injury (n = 36), with a psychiatric diagnosis (n = 20), or with a history of both trauma and a psychiatric condition (n = 17) were retrieved. The criteria for malingered neurocognitive dysfunction (MNCD) were applied, and two groups of participants were formed: poor effort (n = 15) and genuine responders (n = 68). Consistent with previous studies, the difference in scores between groups was greatest for the RBS (d = 2.44), followed by two established MMPI-2 validity scales, F (d = 0.25) and K (d = 0.23), and strong significant correlations were found between RBS and F (rs = .48) and RBS and K (r = −.41). When MNCD group membership was predicted using logistic regression, the RBS failed to add incrementally to F. In a separate regression to predict group membership, K added significantly to the RBS. Receiver-operating curve analysis revealed a nonsignificant area under the curve statistic, and at the ideal cutoff in this sample of >12, specificity was moderate (.79), sensitivity was low (.47), and positive and negative predictive power values at a 13% base rate were .25 and .91, respectively. Although the results of this study require replication because of a number of limitations, this study has made an important first attempt to report RBS classification accuracy statistics for predicting poor effort at a range of base rates.

Accuracy and functional variability in elite and developing fast bowlers

Objectives The relationship between performance variability and accuracy in cricket fast bowlers of different skill levels under three different task conditions was investigated. Bowlers of different skill levels were examined to observe if they could adapt movement patterns to maintain performance accuracy on a bowling skills test. Design 8 national, 12 emerging and 12 junior pace bowlers completed an adapted version of the Cricket Australia bowling skills test, in which they performed 30 trials involving short (n = 10), good (n = 10), and full (n = 10) length deliveries. Methods Bowling accuracy was recorded by digitising ball position relative to the centre of a target. Performance measures were mean radial error (accuracy), variable error (consistency), centroid error (bias), bowling score and ball speed. Radial error changes across the duration of the skills test were used to record accuracy adjustment in subsequent deliveries. Results Elite fast bowlers performed better in speed, accuracy, and test scores than developing athletes. Bowlers who were less variable were also more accurate across all delivery lengths. National and emerging bowlers were able to adapt subsequent performance trials within the same bowling session for short length deliveries. Conclusions Accuracy and adaptive variability were key components of elite performance in fast bowling which improved with skill level. In this study, only national elite bowlers showed requisite levels of adaptive variability to bowl a range of lengths to different pitch locations.

The correlation between electric field emission phenomenon and Schottky contact reverse bias characteristics in nanostructured systems

Two different morphologies of nanotextured molybdenum oxide were deposited by thermal evaporation. By measuring their field emission (FE) properties, an enhancement factor was extracted. Subsequently, these films were coated with a thin layer of Pt to form Schottky contacts. The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics showed low magnitude reverse breakdown voltages, which we attributed to the localized electric field enhancement. An enhancement factor was obtained from the I-V curves. We will show that the enhancement factor extracted from the I-V curves is in good agreement with the enhancement factor extracted from the FE measurements.

A comparison of forward and reverse bias operation in a Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode based hydrogen sensor

A hydrogen gas sensor based on Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode has been developed. Our proposed theoretical model allows for the explanation of superior dynamic performance of the reverse biased diode when compared to the forward bias operation. The sensor was evaluated with low concentration H2 gas exposures over a temperature range of 280°C to 430°C. Upon exposure to H2 gas, the effective change in free carrier concentration at the Pt/structured ZnO interface is amplified by an enhancement factor, effectively lowering the reverse barrier, producing a large voltage shift. The lowering of the reverse barrier permits a faster response in reverse bias operation, than in forward bias operation.