Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Proceedings of the 3rd International Subtropical Cities Conference 2011 Subtropical Cities: Subtropical Urbanism -Beyond Climate Change

Climate has been, throughout modern history, a primary attribute for attracting residents to the “Sunshine States” of Florida (USA) and Queensland (Australia). The first major group of settlers capitalized on the winter growing season to support a year-­‐round agricultural economy. As these economies developed, the climate attracted tourism and retirement industries. Yet as Florida and Queensland have blossomed under beneficial climates, the stresses acting on the natural environment are exacting a toll. Southeast Florida and eastern Queensland are among the most vulnerable coastal metropolitan areas in the world. In these places the certainty of sea level rise is measurable with impacts, empirically observable, that will continue to increase regardless of any climate change mitigation.1 The cities of the subtropics share a series of paradoxes relating to climate, resources, environment, and culture. As the subtropical climate entices new residents and visitors there are increasing costs associated with urban infrastructure and the ravages of violent weather. The carefree lifestyle of subtropical cities is increasingly dependent on scarce water and energy resources and the flow of tangible goods that support a trade economy. The natural environment is no longer exploitable as the survival of the human environment is contingent upon the ability of natural ecosystems to absorb the impact of human actions. The quality of subtropical living is challenged by the mounting pressures of population growth and rapid urbanization yet urban form and contemporary building design fail to take advantage of the subtropical zone’s natural attributes of abundant sunshine, cooling breezes and warm temperatures. Yet, by building a global network of local knowledge, subtropical cities like Brisbane, the City of Gold Coast and Fort Lauderdale, are confidently leading the way with innovative and inventive solutions for building resiliency and adaptation to climate change. The Centre for Subtropical Design at Queensland University of Technology organized the first international Subtropical Cities conference in Brisbane, Australia, where the “fault-­‐lines” of subtropical cities at breaking points were revealed. The second conference, held in 2008, shed a more optimistic light with the theme "From fault-­‐lines to sight-­‐lines -­‐ subtropical urbanism in 20-­‐20" highlighting the leadership exemplified in the vitality of small and large works from around the subtropical world. Yet beyond these isolated local actions the need for more cooperation and collaboration was identified as the key to moving beyond the problems of the present and foreseeable future. The spirit of leadership and collaboration has taken on new force, as two institutions from opposite sides of the globe joined together to host the 3rd international conference Subtropical Cities 2011 -­‐ Subtropical Urbanism: Beyond Climate Change. The collaboration between Florida Atlantic University and the Queensland University of Technology to host this conference, for the first time in the United States, forges a new direction in international cooperative research to address urban design solutions that support sustainable behaviours, resiliency and adaptation to sea level rise, green house gas (GHG) reduction, and climate change research in the areas of architecture and urban design, planning, and public policy. With southeast Queensland and southern Florida as contributors to this global effort among subtropical urban regions that share similar challenges, opportunities, and vulnerabilities our mutual aim is to advance the development and application of local knowledge to the global problems we share. The conference attracted over 150 participants from four continents. Presentations by authors were organized into three sub-­‐themes: Cultural/Place Identity, Environment and Ecology, and Social Economics. Each of the 22 papers presented underwent a double-­‐blind peer review by a panel of international experts among the disciplines and research areas represented. The Centre for Subtropical Design at the Queensland University of Technology is leading Australia in innovative environmental design with a multi-­‐disciplinary focus on creating places that are ‘at home’ in the warm humid subtropics. The Broward Community Design Collaborative at Florida Atlantic University's College for Design and Social Inquiry has built an interdisciplinary collaboration that is unique in the United States among the units of Architecture, Urban and Regional Planning, Social Work, Public Administration, together with the College of Engineering and Computer Science, the College of Science, and the Center for Environmental Studies, to engage in funded action research through design inquiry to solve the problems of development for urban resiliency and environmental sustainment. As we move beyond debates about climate change -­‐ now acting upon us -­‐ the subtropical urban regions of the world will continue to convene to demonstrate the power of local knowledge against global forces, thereby inspiring us as we work toward everyday engagement and action that can make our cities more livable, equitable, and green.

Comparative durability study of CFRP strengthened tubular steel members under cold weather

In strengthening systems, the CFRP (Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer) materials typically have excellent resistance against environmental conditions; however, the performance of adhesives between CFRP and steel is generally affected by various environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. This paper presents the comparative durability study of CFRP strengthened tubular steel structures by using two different adhesives such as MBrace saturant and Araldite K630 under four-point bending. The program consisted of testing twelve CFRP strengthened specimens having treated with epoxy based adhesion promoter, untreated surface and one unstrengthened specimen and conditioned under cold weather for 3 and 6 months to determine the environmental durability. The beams were then loaded to failure in quasi-static manner under four-point bending. The structural responses of CFRP strengthened tubular steel beams were compared in terms of failure load, stiffness and modes of failure. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had adversely affected the durability of CFRP strengthened steel members. Design factor is also proposed to address the short-terms durability performance under cold weather.

Increased risk of emergency hospital admissions for children with renal diseases during heatwaves in Brisbane, Australia

Background Heatwaves have a significant impact on population health including both morbidity and mortality. In this study we examined the association between heatwaves and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) for renal diseases in children (aged 0–14 years) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods Daily data on EHAs for renal diseases in children and exposure to temperature and air pollution were obtained for Brisbane city from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2005. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to compare the risks for renal diseases between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. Results There were 1565 EHAs for renal diseases in children during the study period. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on EHAs for renal diseases in children after adjusting for confounding factors (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.4–9.5). The risk estimates differed with lags and the use of different heatwave definitions. Conclusions There was a significant increase in EHAs for renal diseases in children during heatwaves in Brisbane, a subtropical city where people are well accustomed to warm weather. This finding may have significant implications for pediatric renal care, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions.

Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on the effects of weather on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given the dominance of buses in that city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its subtropical climate characteristics. Bus operation is affected by inclement weather conditions, as buses share the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer little, or sometimes no, protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are thought to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy days and daily bus ridership for the period 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall has a negative effect, with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. The findings of our study enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode-choice behaviour, under adverse weather conditions.